Update: 8th June 2019 We now know the fate of all show! Overall the prediction formula worked very well, every show it predicted to be renewed was renewed. And only 3 of the 23 of Likely to be Cancelled shows managed to survive or which 2 of those were the from the mass CW renewals. 7 of the 21 in Danger shows were cancelled.
We'll have to tweak the formula next season to allow for the ever decreasing ratings and for the low bar set by CW for renewals.
Welcome to this years SpoilerTV Cancellation Predictor
Last year, each week, we updated our data (see the notes below about how we get our data) in order to see if we could predict which show(s) would be renewed or cancelled. As you can see from last years summary, we did pretty well apart from a few CW shows and some surprise cancellations/renewals.. We're hoping this year to make it even more accurate.
This index is by no means a 100% accurate guide about if your show is safe or in danger and should be seen as a bit of FUN.
NOTE: Until we have at least 3-4 weeks of data for each show that this table is not going to be very accurate and it will vary a lot each update. We'll try to update the full Cancellation Table every couple of days as we get new data in.
Major Updates
11th May 2019 - Updated after all the renewals and cancellations from last night
9th May 2019 - Added recent CBS and other pre-upfront renewals
5th Feb 2019 - Added recent renewals from the TCAs
1st Feb 2019 - Added all the CW Renewals [LINK]
22nd Dec - First official cancellation: Midnight, Texas [LINK]
22nd Sept - Initial Table created and first ratings added.
Can't see the table? Check out our Troubleshooting Guide
Understanding the Table - Please Read
1) The Higher the Index Rating number the more likely a show is to get cancelled, lower numbers = safety.
2) This is an ongoing exercise that I hope to refine each week to make the index more accurate.
3) Only the major networks are included currently ie ABC/FOX/CW/CBS/NBC. And only for the main TV Season ie we don't cover Summer Shows.
4) This chart is a prediction of all the shows using our own formula based on the viewing numbers, 18-49, and + 7 Numbers. These 3 factors are the main weighting of the Index number, however we also factor in things such as the Network they are on (eg CW shows get lower numbers), the day of week they air (eg Fridays are lower numbers), DVR Numbers and +7 and +3 numbers,DVD/Blu-Ray Sales,Production Costs, Cast Contracts/Availability, Syndication, online popularity such as streamed views and Torrents, Nielsen Online Ratings etc.
5) Shows still might not get renewed despite good numbers due eg a show coming to an end of run eg A show might be in it's final season no matter what the ratings are etc or could be due to key cast wanting to leave after their contracts have expired. An example might be Supernatural if it’s two leads, Jared and Jensen wanted out, would Supernatural be renewed even if it had good numbers but no leads for the new season? etc
6) Remember Ratings are relative to ratings for other shows on the same network.
7) Shows that have been renewed for a New Season are marked in Blue
8) Shows with an Index over 5 are likely to be cancelled, 3-5 - in danger and less than 3 safe. Although shows nearer 3 are more in danger than a show with a lower index.
9) You can access this page via either the Start or Features Menu above or simply by Bookmarking it.
Here is a direct link to the full spreadsheet.
If you have any questions/suggestions, please don't hesitate in asking in the comments below.
1) The Higher the Index Rating number the more likely a show is to get cancelled, lower numbers = safety.
2) This is an ongoing exercise that I hope to refine each week to make the index more accurate.
3) Only the major networks are included currently ie ABC/FOX/CW/CBS/NBC. And only for the main TV Season ie we don't cover Summer Shows.
4) This chart is a prediction of all the shows using our own formula based on the viewing numbers, 18-49, and + 7 Numbers. These 3 factors are the main weighting of the Index number, however we also factor in things such as the Network they are on (eg CW shows get lower numbers), the day of week they air (eg Fridays are lower numbers), DVR Numbers and +7 and +3 numbers,DVD/Blu-Ray Sales,Production Costs, Cast Contracts/Availability, Syndication, online popularity such as streamed views and Torrents, Nielsen Online Ratings etc.
5) Shows still might not get renewed despite good numbers due eg a show coming to an end of run eg A show might be in it's final season no matter what the ratings are etc or could be due to key cast wanting to leave after their contracts have expired. An example might be Supernatural if it’s two leads, Jared and Jensen wanted out, would Supernatural be renewed even if it had good numbers but no leads for the new season? etc
6) Remember Ratings are relative to ratings for other shows on the same network.
7) Shows that have been renewed for a New Season are marked in Blue
8) Shows with an Index over 5 are likely to be cancelled, 3-5 - in danger and less than 3 safe. Although shows nearer 3 are more in danger than a show with a lower index.
9) You can access this page via either the Start or Features Menu above or simply by Bookmarking it.
Here is a direct link to the full spreadsheet.
If you have any questions/suggestions, please don't hesitate in asking in the comments below.
