Okay folks, last day of regular season predictions with the very exciting (and some very hard ones to guess) Sunday shows! Thank you for bearing with me during premiere week and sorry I couldn't get through all the comments as I like to do but it's just been busy for me! Make sure to check the CW post later on before they start premiering their shows!
Timeslot: ABC, Sundays at 8pm
Lead-in: America’s Home Funniest Videos
Lead-out: Blood and Oil
Episode Order: 22 episodes
Competition: Sunday Night Football | ?, Madam Secretary, The Simpsons & Brooklyn Nine-Nine
Pros
- Because ABC is launching its only two new dramas on Sunday, there is a lot riding on this night, which has received a whole lot more promotion than before. That should help it out to start in solid fashion.
- OUAT is a unique show in the sense that it has the ability to reinvent itself every half-season. That means that last season’s spring decline could not even matter all that much this year if people are interested in Camelot!
- Even if people are not interested in this particular new arc, I would give the writers a fair shot of coming up with an arc for the second half that people like better (much like in Season 3).
- The competition really isn’t getting any worse.
Cons
- The spring decline was still pretty ugly and it is hard to ignore it. The -1% y2y trend here is completely misleading since it just reflects a huge Frozen boost in the first half. With no Frozen this year, it could be just straight up decline.
- It’s hard to picture it right now, but even the new Sunday dramas bomb to a big degree, OUAT may find itself in an even bigger island than the one it had to endure last year when Resurrection collapsed.
- Realistically, can a serialized show like this keep having huge ratings come backs, time after time?
Bottom Line I sincerely doubt the show comes even close to the Frozen inflated numbers from last fall, so it will be down big in the beginning of the year, even if I think it has a fair shot at opening well enough. But I could see it holding at a more stable level during the fall and to reduce the year deficit towards the end. And I do not necessarily see the show taking another big drop come spring, especially if Season 5A is as well received as the early reviews would suggest. So I think it mirrors Season 3’s trend and I think it has roughly the same average, once accounting for the league average decline. 1.72 (-21%)
Timeslot: ABC, Sundays at 9pm
Lead-in: Once Upon a Time
Lead-out: Quantico
Episode Order: 13 episodes (possible 22 episode extension)
Competition: Sunday Night Football | ?, The Good Wife, Family Guy & The Last Man on Earth, Homeland, The Walking Dead | Game of Thrones
Pros
- This is ABC’s promotional darling of the season!
- I think this is actually pretty well scheduled as there should be interest in a female skewing soap that can go head to head against all the male skewing events on FOX, NBC and AMC and that doesn’t fall into the prestige drama category that CBS offers. So while there is undeniably a lot of competition on Sundays, it isn’t necessarily that tough competition for this type of show, at least in theory, and the viewing levels are at its peak, which should give it a pretty good shot at gathering eyeballs.
- Although it wasn’t as pronounced as with its lead-out, Blood and Oil also attracted a surprisingly amount of interest social media wise during the pre-season.
- This is a very on-brand effort for ABC, which I think also helped the likes of Secrets and Lies on this slot last year!
Cons
- Although this is a modern day drama, I’ve seen comments from people thinking it is a period piece. And the track record of period pieces on broadcast is just downright scary! If that is a general thing, it will be in trouble.
- While all that I said about the type of competition it has is true, it is also true that it is still pretty damn strong competition nonetheless. Sure, The Walking Dead and Sunday Night Football skew male, but there are still plenty of women watching who won’t be willing to change the channel for this.
- Reviews have been very mediocre so far.
- From the promos, this seems to me to be far slower paced and less “edgy” than its lead-in and lead-out. It could be the odd man out on that Sunday lineup!
Bottom Line The new ABC Sunday dramas are the toughest thing for me to predict since they could go in so many ways. I knew that would be the case all summer long and it still holds true, just a few hours before the numbers are out. Ultimately, with this one, I think the timeslot and the promotion are good enough to avoid a total bomb, but I am not sure the show itself will be mass appealing enough to be exactly a hit either. This seems to have thematic similarities with Nashville, also an ABC soap focused on a particular industry, and I think even the timeslot has some similarities, so for the lack of a better guess, I am going to say it equals what that show did in Season 1, after accounting for the league average decline. 1.34
Timeslot: ABC, Sundays at 10pm
Lead-in: Blood and Oil
Lead-out: Local Programming
Episode Order: 13 episodes (possible 22 episode extension)
Competition: Sunday Night Football | ?, CSI Cyber, The Talking Dead, The Affair
Pros
- The buzz for this show has been straight up impressive. It is killing it on social media, it is killing it on pre-season tracking indicators and it has surprisingly great reviews. All of that has to amount to something.
- This is perhaps even more on brand for ABC than Blood and Oil. The promos are an obvious throwback to what I think is the most successful drama ABC has had, Grey’s Anatomy, combined with also obvious similarities to their biggest freshman hit in years, How to Get Away with Murder. That should be a recipe for success in a network that is cultivating this type of drama.
- If Blood and Oil hits, this show could actually find itself in a slot that looks much less awful than we thought it would.
- Although Sunday Night Football and The Talking Dead are formidable competition, this show should be able to benefit from the lack of serious scripted competition, since Cyber won’t exactly set the world on fire in this slot.
- Much like with Blood and Oil, ABC has been relentlessly promoting the show all summer long!
Cons
- It is freaking Sundays at 10pm, a slot we’ve all gotten used to be reserved for shows piling up episodes for syndication! (Why isn’t Nashville here, again?)
- If Blood and Oil flops, this will become an almost impossible situation.
- The thing with this show is that it seems to be geared up towards not only the ABC female viewers who constitute the majority of the TGIT audience, but also to the male viewers (which was probably the reason for the early draft of placing it behind Shield). However, said male viewers will be all too busy in this timeslot to be able to even take notice, especially with it following such a female skewing soap as Blood and Oil!
- When was the last time a terrorism-themed drama really worked on broadcast?
- Sure, this show has exceeded all expectations on social media but a lot of it may be due to the international popularity of its star, which sadly won’t really matter on the ratings office.
Bottom Line I said above with Blood and Oil that these two are the toughest predictions for me to make and I actually think this one is even worse than its lead-in. On the one hand, this is a by-the-book flop in the making due to the horrible timeslot it has. On the other hand, however, I just cannot ignore all the positive buzz this has built. Some shows do defy the odds. Although I am not ready to bet on it being able to do it in a major way, I think it will defy its very low expectations on the slot, most likely propelling ABC to move this at some point in the season. I have absolutely no reference here so I will just shrug it and say it matches its lead-in average, although it is probably a lot less front loaded (Especially if said move does happen). 1.34
Timeslot: FOX, Sundays at 8h30pm
Lead-in: The Simpsons
Lead-out: Family Guy
Episode Order: 22-24 episodes
Competition: Sunday Night Football | ?, Once Upon a Time, Madam Secretary
Pros
- It was not commented much, but Brooklyn Nine-Nine actually held surprisingly well last Spring when FOX Sundays was mostly collapsing, even holding all of The Simpsons lead-in more than once. That is a very positive sign for this show.
- This is a critically loved show which is still very much young. That means is always a perennial candidate for some sort of bounce from additional viewers finding the show!
- Like always, the Spring collapse of FOX Sunday really doesn’t mean much for next fall, considering the NFL and the viewing levels will all be there to help it out.
- I think with no Grammys and no SNL Special this year, the winter months for FOX Sunday should trend a whole lot better, even if FOX is incompetent with the scheduling again.
Cons
- It still hit some damn ugly numbers last winter and spring!
- The formula of young critically loved shows finding a broader audience really hasn’t paid off much in the past. Just ask all those NBC critical darlings who it worked out for them!
- The animated Sunday anchors were inflated a lot last fall, especially on premiere night due to the crossover event. No such luck this time, which will end up affecting Brooklyn Nine Nine as well!
Bottom Line I see no reason to go one way or the other here. The show was essentially the same type of performer all year long in the slot once accounting for the changing conditions, and the slot should be pretty much the same as last year, give or take. So I think it is down a bit in the early fall, stable later on, up in the winter, and mostly stable in the spring. League average decline. 1.505 (-11%)
Timeslot: FOX, Sundays at 9h30
Lead-in: Family Guy
Lead-out: Local Programming
Episode Order: 13 episodes (?)
Competition: Sunday Night Football | ?, Blood and Oil, The Good Wife, The Walking Dead, Homeland
Pros
- This is a critically loved show with just 13 episodes under its belt! And Will Forte scored an Emmy nomination for which FOX actually bothered to campaign. That means awareness should be pretty high and there is a serious chance more people caught up with it this summer!
- It will get to air entirely in the fall, with much, much better viewing levels than the pesky spring ones!
- Airing in the fall has another, even more important benefit, which is the infusion of the NFL on the Sunday lineup! That tends to lift all boats, so LMOE should ride the wave as well (and, for the same reason, its lead-in will be higher rated too!)
- Assuming FOX is a bit less crazy this year, the show should be able to benefit from less
Cons
- The show started off in pretty big fashion but it had a relatively ugly decline during its very short run! Can it turn thing around?
- Fall is great for the NFL lead-in and the viewing levels but it also means Sunday Night Football will be there as very tough competition for this male skewing show!
- For a comedy, that is as serialized as there is. That will limit its potential to riding the NFL wave that tends to help the other FOX Sunday show.
Bottom Line I think this show will be mostly fine because it gets to air entirely in the fall which is an disproportionally better set up for the FOX Sunday lineup, even after accounting for SNF. However, I do think the more serialized nature of this show will prevent if from fully being able to benefit from the better conditions as much as the other shows on the lineup, which will make its numbers a whole lot less impressive. 1.41 (-13%)
Timeslot: CBS, Sundays at 8pm
Lead-in: 60 Minutes
Lead-out: The Good Wife
Episode Order: 24 episodes
Competition: Sunday Night Football | ?, Once Upon a Time, The Simpsons & Brooklyn Nine-Nine
Pros
- The Spring numbers were awful but, much like with FOX, they shouldn’t matter all that much in the fall when the overruns help boost the entire night!
- Maybe this show was hurt last year from the huge winter break it took and it was a case of out of sight, out of mind. Perhaphs after a summer of repeats exposure it will work out better?
Cons
- Did you see those Spring numbers last year?
- Last year, the show was at least able to post good fall numbers but most of it was due to it being new and people sampling the show. No such luck for CBS this time.
- This is the type of show that would have probably needed award season buzz to have any chance at holding up better in Season 2, and no such luck for it.
- CBS Sunday is just a bad place to be.
Bottom Line I cannot come up with any reason why this should go decently. It will rebound somehow from the horrible spring numbers because of the overruns and the higher viewing levels, but I doubt it comes close to last year’s fall numbers. And by the time Spring comes, another big hit will come and the show will be stuck in fractional territory most of the time. 1.00 (-31%)
Timeslot: CBS, Sundays at 9pm
Lead-in: Madam Secretary
Lead-out: CSI: Cyber
Episode Order: 22 episodes
Competition: Sunday Night Football | ?, Blood and Oil, Family Guy & The Last Man on Earth, Homeland, The Walking Dead | Game of Thrones
Pros
- This is a more established show which should be able to rebound a little bit better from the Spring collapse than its sophomore lead-in! At this point, its audience should pretty much stick with it until the end.
- I think there is a reasonable chance that CBS announces this as the final season midway, which should in theory help it somehow in the back half.
Cons
- Again… did you see those spring numbers?
- Madam Secretary will most likely collapse at 8 which will give The Good Wife its lowest rated lead-in yet.
- Female driven Blood and Oil on ABC could actually be competition that could hurt The Good Wife, as it should not only outrate Resurrection but also have more overlap with this show.
- It is not like CSI was that great of a lead-out last year, but it will probably end up looking a hell lot better than Cyber.
Bottom Line The spring decline was just bad and Madam Secretary probably won’t rebound enough to help this out in any way. I do think there is a chance of them announcing final season midway which would give it a boost though. So I think that, coupled with it having lower numbers last year to begin with and it being a more established show should prevent this from falling as much as its lead-in. Still not pretty though. 1.03 (-16%)
Timeslot: CBS, Sundays at 10pm
Lead-in: The Good Wife
Lead-out: Local Programming
Episode Order: 22 episodes
Competition: Sunday Night Football | ?, Quantico, The Talking Dead, The Affair
Pros
- Summer repeats haven’t been terrible in this slot and it was able to grow from Madam Secretary for a great bit of them. That is relatively promising.
- The show is having some sort of retool, with the main character from the original CSI coming into this show. Maybe it works and the show really becomes better creatively.
- The original CSI is over, so if people want to stick with the franchise, maybe they will seek this out.
Cons
- Sundays at 10 on CBS is probably the worst slot on television right now excluding Saturdays. It will have a horribly rated The Good Wife lead-in, overruns and a lot of competition. Yikes!
- This show was already very weak last year on a pretty great timeslot after the high rated and compatible Criminal Minds and against minimal competition. How is it supposed to get any better on this horrible slot?
Bottom Line CSI Miami dropped 33% when moved to this slot. The Mentalist dropped 34%. And CSI dropped 32%. That is a very consistent history that is hard to ignore. This show is coming from weaker numbers to begin with but I am fully convinced it is also much, much weaker than any of the other three were by the time of the move, so I will stick with history here and give it a similar decline. 0.93 (-33%)
Now, as usual, I give you the floor! What are your guesses for these shows' seasonal averages and premieres? Do you agree with me that the ABC Sunday dramas are horrible to predict? Do you share my pessimism for CBS Sunday? Hit it off in the comments below and, once again, thanks for reading!
