One more premiere week day, one more day of predictions! As usual, find below my analysis for the Friday shows and my predictions for their full seasonal averages! Also today, since I did not have the time to do it for the Thursday post, two extra shows are included (Bones and Sleepy Hollow).
One quick programming note before I start, since a lot of questions have been popping up in the comments about this. My intention is to include all the fall shows in this, including the CW and the late premiere. So the current plan, after we are done with the shows premiere as part of the initial fall roll-out (which ends on Sunday with the Sunday post), is to have two additional editions, one to cover the CW shows (Crazy Ex-Girlfriend, Jane the Virgin, The Flash, iZombie, Arrow, Supernatural, The Vampire Diaries, The Originals, Reign) and one other to cover the late fall premieres (Super Girl, Wicked City, Grimm, Chicago Med, Mom, Angel from Hell, Elementary). Hope that clears it up!
Timeslot: CBS, Fridays at 9pm
Lead-in: The Amazing Race | Undercover Boss (?) | The Amazing Race
Lead-out: Blue Bloods
Episode Order: 24-25 episodes
Competition: Shark Tank, Grimm, World’s Funniest Fails, America’s Next Top Model | ?
Pros
- This show held up in a surprisingly good way last year even as its lead-in completely collapsed as CBS replaced Undercover Boss with TAR for the biggest portion of the season! That means it is rather stable!
- The competition really isn’t getting any more difficult than it was before.
- The Amazing Race was actually stronger in the spring season than in the fall one, so maybe it shows up a little bit stronger this fall, thus managing to help Five-0 in the process?
Cons
- Even accounting for the lead-in effect, the fall comparisons last year were still rather ugly (although they did get much better in the winter and spring).
- Shark Tank is not exactly trending down and if Grimm is kept at 9pm all season this year, the slot could end up being more competitive as a whole than it was last year.
Bottom Line Things are boringly similar enough on the slot for me to have nothing relevant to add here. I don’t see why this show would suddenly start behaving in a completely different way than what it did last year, considering it should have a stable audience by now and the surroundings are all the same. League average decline then. 1.105 (-11%)
Timeslot: CBS, Fridays at 10pm
Lead-in: Hawaii Five-0
Lead-out: Local Programming
Episode Order: 22-24 episodes
Competition: Dateline, 20/20
Pros
- This is such an old skewing show, which means its audience should be a lot less fickle! Big declines are unlikely to happen out of the blue!
- There should be no drama (or scripted, for that matter) competition in the hour at all this year!
- Last year’s trend was good enough, even deep into the spring!
Cons
- Old skewing is great for stability and all, but that also means its audience will eventually age out of the demo! Could it be this year?
- No scripted competition sounds great in theory but the old skewing newsmagazines could actually be more formidable competition for this particular type of show than any genre drama NBC could have tried to throw its way!
Bottom Line Like with Hawaii Five-0, I believe things are similar enough for it not to really move much one way or the other. And I thought the spring data points when it was growing out of Five-0 were promising and that this show has an even more loyal audience than its lead-in. So I say it goes a touch better y2y. 1.15 (-10%)
Timeslot: ABC, Fridays at 8pm
Lead-in: Local Programming
Lead-out: Dr. Ken
Episode Order: 22 episodes
Competition: Undateable, The Amazing Race, FOX Repeats (?), Reign
Pros
- This is a show that just had a formidable year of growth (after accounting for the league average decline) despite barely any promotion from its network! That just shows how loyal its viewers are and those really are the best kind to have!
- Although the show really did well the entire year, the Spring data points were even more promising, seeing how the show held up rather well even when DST arrived in what is a ridiculously low viewed slot deep into the spring! That makes the outlook for next year all the more promising and could potentially even be syndication kicking in!
- If Dr. Ken works and the show finally has a suitable companion, it should easily benefit!
Cons
- For the first time since it has moved to Fridays, it will have comedy competition! And a multi cam comedy nonetheless! That is bound to hurt!
- At some point, it just has to matter that ABC does not promote this show.
- I could see Dr. Ken doing worse than Cristela and that could negatively affect good old LMS too if it gets stuck in an island at 8pm.
Bottom Line Sure, I don’t think Undateable will help but it is an NBC comedy after all and I do no think Dr. Ken will help either, but I also do not think it will be worse than The Neighbors, so I think the conditions won’t matter all that much. Ultimately, I’ve always thought this was the kind of show that would benefit much from syndication and I think last season’s bounce was a bit a result of that. I also think there is a legitimate chance that ABC blows up Dr. Ken and doubles this up in the late winter which would actually benefit its average. 1.185 (-7%)
Timeslot: ABC, Fridays at 8h30pm
Lead-in: Last Man Standing
Lead-out: Dr. Ken
Episode Order: 13 episodes (possible 22-24 episode extension)
Competition: Undateable, The Amazing Race, FOX Repeats (?), Reign
Pros
- For a Friday comedy, this is getting a lot of attention from ABC promotional machine (just look at the insane increase in the popularity on Facebook that this had just this week)
- Last Man Standing is a stable, reliable lead-in for a Friday.
- The star of this show is wildly recognizable for its stint on the Hangover franchise. Maybe that helps bring more initial curiosity to this concept?
- Diversity has had a lot of success on television lately. Is it really wise to bet against it?
Cons
- I am not a regular Last Man Standing watcher but from the little I’ve seen, I do not really detect a lot of overlap between that comedy and Dr. Ken. So while the lead-in might be reliable, it might also be incompatible.
- Unlike all the other comedies ABC has tried in this slot, it will actually find comedy competition from another broadcaster coming its way!
- Reviews for this show have been horrible.
Bottom Line I am just not sold here. I cannot really understand who would be the target audience for this comedy and I do not think it is remotely a good fit with Last Man Standing. Ken is a recognizable star but that really didn’t do anything for his previous show, so I doubt the effect changes just because he is the lead on this one. I think it premieres on Cristela levels but actually settles at lower retention from Last Man Standing in the fall and, with Beyond the Tank waiting in the wings with more episodes this year, ABC ends it after 13, double pumps LMS for a few weeks and simply inserts Beyond the Tank into the night come spring. 1.02
Timeslot: NBC, Fridays at 8h00 pm
Lead-in: Local Programming
Lead-out: Truth Be Told
Episode Order: 13 episodes (possible 22-24 episode extension)
Competition: Last Man Standing, The Amazing Race, FOX Repeats (??), Reign
Pros
- Sure enough, this show is going from penthouse to doghouse in terms of timeslot, but the thing about it is that it had already been in the doghouse before during its first season and it survived okay. Why would now be any different?
- While this show will find lower viewing levels and certainly a much lower lead-in on Friday than it found on Tuesdays, it actually finds a rather decent competition environment, easier than the one it had on Tuesdays, when New Girl went after all those 18-34s this show was trying to get.
- This is basically NBC’s save face in the comedy department. That means they will want to give it some attention promotional wise when it premieres.
Cons
- It is nice to talk about easier competition and all, but the effect of that will be minimal when compared to the loss of that massive voice lead-in and the lower viewing levels!
- Truth Be Told seems to be universally regarded as the biggest dud of the fall season. A pairing with it is not exactly what the doctor ordered here!
- This is a comedy going after 18-34s, a target demo that was never known for being at home on Fridays!
Bottom Line There are a lot of variables changing here but, unlike in other situations, it is pretty clear to me that the vast majority is changing in the negative way. Still, I don’t really think this show should do any worse here than it did on Thursdays in the summer against the NFL, especially after having gotten half a season of post voice exposure. 0.93 (-34%)
Timeslot: NBC, Fridays at 8h30 pm
Lead-in: Undateable
Lead-out: Grimm
Episode Order: 13 episodes (possible 22-24 episode extension)
Competition: Dr. Ken, The Amazing Race, FOX Repeats (??), Reign
Pros
- This kind of seems like a good fit with Undateable!
- NBC had a ton of comedies they could have selected to make it to the fall schedule. Maybe they know something we don’t…?
Cons
- It is a horrible slot to launch any comedy and Undateable is not even as stable of a lead-in as Last Man Standing will be for Dr. Ken!
- It is a freaking NBC comedy and this one is not even being launched post Voice! Need I say to say more?
- To say that critics hate this would be the understatement of the season.
Bottom Line Simply put, I think this has nothing going for it. It has very middling retention out of an already modest Undateable soon after it premieres and NBC eventually pulls it in November and tries to launch either a new comedy here or The Charmichael Show Season 2. 0.71
Timeslot: FOX, Thursdays at 8pm
Lead-in: Local Programming
Lead-out: Sleepy Hollow | ?
Episode Order: 22-24 episodes
Competition: Grey’s Anatomy, The Big Bang Theory & Life in Pieces, Heroes Reborn | ??, The Vampire Diaries
Pros
- Bones was left on an island for the whole season last year, paired with flops Gracepoint and Backstorm. The resurrection of former successful pairing with Sleepy Hollow could do wonders for this show!
- There is a very buzzed about crossover with Sleepy Hollow in the works! That could help!
- The show seemed to catch some breathing room late in the season when it was airing episodes in the summer. Maybe this year it gets to air in nights with less competition (including the winter nights when TGIT is on hiatus)!
Cons
- All of the summer episodes showed was that the competition of this night is just too much for this old show to handle. And the arrival of Heroes Reborn and continued presence of GA and TBBT won’t change that at all; if anything, things will only look worse.
- This show, Bones is not even tasked with launching a new show and, instead, is thrown at what is clear a surrender night for FOX. It will get even less promotional attention from FOX!
- Fans of procedurals like this that happen to watch FOX already have Rosewood now. Maybe they swap Bones for the new shiny thing?
Bottom Line I do not see how the show turns this around. It is old and tired, FOX is asking way too much of it and is giving it almost nothing in return. This being said, if I manages to stay on the air during the higher viewed and less competitive winter months, I think it average will benefit, but I am not really sure what FOX plans for midseason and there are just too many variables for me to call it right now. I will say it gets to come back a little earlier than last year at least, which helps a bit. Still, the trend is ugly and, like always, we say it might be the end (and, at some point, it will be). 1.00 (-19%)
Timeslot: FOX, Thursdays at 9pm
Lead-in: Bones
Lead-out: Local Programming
Episode Order: 18 episodes
Competition: Scandal, Mom & Angel from Hell, The Blacklist, The Originals
Pros
- Monday was just too much of a competitive slot for this show. Away from the reality juggernauts and CBS’ biggest new drama hit in decades, against the declining crown jewel from NBC, against a pair of solid but unspectacular CBS comedies, Sleepy Hollow only has to seriously worry about Scandal.
- Last year, the show messed up so much creatively that it is almost impossible for it not to improve on that regard this year. Eventually, that will start being noticed and more people will stick around, decreasing the in-season erosion this time around.
- The pairing with Bones did wonders for this show back in the day and, even though on paper Gotham is the more compatible lead-in, the procedural audience from Bones could actually be a better fit here!
Cons
- The limited series curse has shown us that not only these Season 1 hits come back incomparably weaker in Season 2 but that they also take unimaginable further declines in Season 3. Why would Sleepy Hollow be an exception when it ticks all the boxes?
- Thursday sounds nice and all, but Scandal and The Blacklist are no piece of cake!
- People hated last season so much, with so much passion everywhere that I sincerely doubt many of them are willing to give this another shot, especially seeing how last year actually provided people with some sense of finality.
- Bones was a great pairing with this show and all back in the day but that was when it was regularly pulling 2.0s. Now, struggling to pull a 1.0, it really can’t do anything for its lead-out.
- FOX has been practically ignoring this show promotional wise!
Bottom Line I see absolutely no reason to be optimistic here. The timeslot is an effective downgrade, let’s not kid ourselves, and the horrible trend and reaction from Season 2 are very tough things to come back from. So I say it follows the horrifying trends from The Following and Under the Dome heading into Season 3. 1.13 (-27%)
Now, as usual, I pass on the word to all of you! Please let us know in the comments below what your predictions are for all of these shows! Do you agree with me that Dr. Ken and Truth Be Told are not long for this world? How do you think all of the usual Friday occupants will premiere? And will Sleepy Hollow manage to pull a miracle in Season 3?
