Premiere Monday has passed and is now time for premiere Tuesday. Following yesterday's post, here are my thoughts on the Tuesday ones. Once again, I do hope to hear from you about this, both in terms of seasonal averages and actual premiere predictions! Hope you enjoy the reading!
Timeslot: ABC, Tuesdays at 8pm
Lead-in: Local Programming
Lead-out: Fresh Off the Boat
Episode Order: 13 episodes (possible extension ?)
Competition: NCIS, Best Time Ever with Neil Patrick Harris | The Voice, Grandfathered, The Flash
Pros
- It is ABC’s promotional darling of the season and it just had a summer of crazy intense marketing!
- The whole nostalgia angle is bound to bring tones of people to this!
- The tracking matters are impressive everywhere we look! Even in the younger skewing social media, the show is still doing exceptionally well. And not only is awareness recognized as high, but so is intent to view!
Cons
- Whenever shows have this much build up, there is bound to be a big drop-off from people who sample it but then dislike it. That could be especially true here if a lot of people seek this out for nostalgia related reasons but then end up getting tired of it.
- The competition is not exactly easy with NCIS going after the older crowd, the FOX comedies seeking the younger crowd, The Flash taking away the males that watch television and The Voice taking a bit out of pretty much every group once it moves back to the slot. Plus, it has to premiere against Scream Queens, which means the 18-34s could be busy on premiere night elsewhere!
Bottom Line While I recognize all the risks that a nostalgia related show has and how competitive the slot will be, I am convinced that everything is tracking so well that this will be pretty big. The premiere should be the highest rated point of the series and it should indeed fall from there, but I don’t think it matters a ton for this show. It will open huge (I say it ties Agents of Shield’s debut after accounting for the league average decline) and decline steady enough to settle into high 2s. ABC has announced that it is capped at 13 but I am not really sure I buy into that if the show is as big as I am predicting, especially since there isn’t exactly a big star involved that would make this limited by nature. So I say it does a 2.58 if it airs just 13 and 2.31 if it airs all 22.
Timeslot: ABC, Tuesdays at 8h30pm (and later ABC, Tuesdays at 8h??)
Lead-in: The Muppets (and later Local Programming??)
Lead-out: Marvel’s Agents of Shield | Marvel’s Agent Carter (and later, The Real O’Neals??)
Episode Order: 22-24 episodes
Competition: NCIS, Best Time Ever with Neil Patrick Harris | The Voice, The Grinder, The Flash
Pros
- Fresh Off the Boat did surprisingly well last year in a very tough situation! Its numbers showed promise and the trend really wasn’t bad considering the increased competition and decreasing viewing levels!
- ABC has given this show a lot of exposure during the summer, with a lot of repeats and a very strong marketing campaign!
- It will get to enjoy much stronger viewing levels this time around since it gets to air a lot of episodes in the higher viewing fall and winter months instead of just the spring like last season!
- The Muppets is bound to be a huge lead-in that should provide this sophomore comedy with a lot of juice to work with!
- The competition really isn’t any worse than last season and, if anything, it will benefit from the voice sliding to 9pm for the early fall.
Cons
- The spring numbers were still a bit alarming and when was the last time an ABC comedy really thrived on Tuesday anyway?
Bottom Line Yeah, I am very optimistic here. This is a show that did pretty much okay last season in a pretty horrible situation. So why wouldn’t it do significantly better when every single thing is improving a lot in its favor? The Muppets is of course the biggest upgrade but even the other stuff like the increased summer exposure, the positive word of mouth and the higher viewing levels should help it as well! The only doubt is what happens in the Spring. Like I said above, I am not convinced ABC will really take The Muppets out of the air if it is as big as I anticipate, but if it does, FOTB is bound to decrease a little if it goes back to the lead-off role in the low viewed spring. Still, even then, all the exposure earlier on should pay off. I say 1.90 (+10%) if the plan sticks and it does 13 after The Muppets and the rest at 8hpm and 1.954 (+13%) if it gets to air at 8h30 after The Muppets all season.
Timeslot: ABC, Tuesdays at 9pm
Lead-in: Fresh Off the Boat (and later The Real O’Neals ??)
Lead-out: Beyond the Tank | Wicked City | ??
Episode Order: 22
Competition: NCIS New Orleans, The Voice | Chicago Med, Scream Queens, iZombie
Pros
- Last year, Agents of Shield had Manhattan Love Story, Holiday Specials and Repeat After Me as lead-ins, most of which stuck in the vicinity of a 1.0. This year, it gets to have Fresh Off the Boat, which should have no trouble going above a 2.0 (and possibly even higher) at least in the fall. That means its lead-In will more than double this year! That’s certainly a positive!
- The show had so much audience erosion from the start until last year that it is possible that whoever wanted to leave is already gone.
- There is another big Marvel movie coming out this year and that should never be counted out, although it hasn’t really done much so far.
Cons
- Last year’s trend was simply bad, culminating in a shockingly terrible low rated two hour finale. It is very tough for a serialized show like this to come back from that and it sort of says that there were still people watching that wanted to leave!
- The lead-in may improve but that certainly won’t be the case with competition! Not only will The Voice loom more frequently in the hour, but even when it departs the show will have to face another drama instead of a pair of low rated comedies on NBC. And then, of course, there is that little show called Scream Queens on FOX that is going after all those A18-34s that Shield wanted to have watching it.
Bottom Line I adore this show but I cannot find a reason to be optimistic. I think last year’s bad numbers were somehow exaggerated by the bad conditions, particularly the lead-in, but I think the improve in lead-in gets canceled out by the worsening of the competition, so it stays basically the same. And even accounting for all those dynamics, the numbers last year were still low, regardless of how we spin it. I do not see how a show like this reverts this. 1.264 (-20%)
Timeslot: CBS, Tuesdays at 8pm
Lead-in: Local Programming
Lead-out: NCIS New Orleans
Episode Order: 24 episodes
Competition: The Muppets & Fresh Off the Boat | Fresh Off the Boat | The Real O’Neals, Best Time Ever with Neil Patrick Harris | The Voice, Grandfathered & The Grinder, The Flash
Pros
- The NCIS shows haven’t escaped the damaging effect caused by the Voice during the last seasons. However, this year NBC is throwing the mothership a bone by moving The Voice to 9pm during the highest rated portion of its fall season. That should be of some help!
- NCIS continues to be the sole drama entry out of the big 4 in this hour and the comedies that are there seemed more target to a younger skewing audience anyway. So it is set up well in terms of competition.
- For such an old show, last year’s -14% is actually a good trend.
Cons
- Sure enough the FOX comedies might be targeted at a younger audience, but the same might not hold true for ABC’s promotional darling of the season: The Muppets. This has potential to hit across all audiences, including the NCIS’ older skewing fanbase.
- This is a very ancient skewing show and, like all of these, the risk of its viewership simply aging out of the core demo is there. And it is bound to have a bigger drop than normal at some point.
- Some of the worst y2y data points this show had last year actually took place in late spring. That typically doesn’t bode very well for the future season’s trend.
Bottom Line Things are relatively stable enough on the timeslot for me not to be very aggressive one way or the other here. The Muppets will be a tough bullet for this show but the fact that NBC is removing The Voice from the timeslot in the weeks in which The Muppets is expected to be stronger sort of cancels it out. I say it continues to age, but with is typical grace. Same decline from last season: 2.0878 (-14%)
Timeslot: CBS, Tuesdays at 9pm
Lead-in: NCIS
Lead-out: Limitless
Episode Order: 24 episodes
Competition: Marvel’s Agents of Shield, The Voice | Chicago Med, Scream Queens, iZombie
Pros
- It will continue to have its most valuable asset on its side: the moterhship lead-in
- These CBS old skewing procedurals really are the sophomore dramas less prone to big drops considering its audience is typically a lot less fickle
Cons
- On several occasions last year, this show demonstrated that its audience was mostly casuals. That means it is bound to be more affected by worsening conditions than the usual.
- The thing about NBC throwing a bone to the mothership by placing the voice at 9pm is that it also means it directly attacks New Orleans at 9pm, which is far more vulnerable. The show demonstrated last year how badly it could handle The Voice (including a stinky 1.73 in the spring!) and that will happen way more regularly this year. What is more is that even once The Voice departs, it will not get to face those fractional comedies anymore, but instead the strongest NBC brand in the procedural department. That is bound to go badly.
- As if the CBS effect wasn’t enough, Scream Queens will also certainly be a larger force to be reckoned with here than New Girl and Mindy were last year. Although the target audiences are certainly vastly different, I am sure it won’t be of any help either.
Bottom Line There are lot of things I dislike here. I think last year’s numbers were unimpressive for the most part given the easiness of the slot (great viewing levels, amazing lead-in, very weak competition for the most part) and I think the slot is getting considerably harder this year, so that is a very bad combination right there. Still, I think that like most CBS shows, it should have a decent enough spike in the Winter to prevent a total meltdown, though still down one fifth. 1.64 (-20%)
Timeslot: CBS, Tuesdays at 10pm
Lead-in: NCIS: New Orleans
Lead-out: Local Programming
Episode Order: 13 episodes (possible 22-24 extension)
Competition: Beyond the Tank | Wicked City | ?, Chicago Fire, The Bastard Executioner
Pros
- This a movie adaptation that is coming out of a relatively recent movie! That means awareness should be pretty high.
- This was CBS promotional darling of the summer! Although they didn’t go all crazy on this like they went on Scorpion last year, they still went pretty intense with the promotion for this!
- Bradley Cooper is an increasingly recognizable star and the marketing has put a lot of focus on his involvement in the project. That is bound to attract some additional eyeballs!
- As disappointing as New Orleans ratings are, it still provides an okay lead-in for the most part.
- For the first two weeks, it has the slot all for itself as far as drama competition goes. And after that, is should be mostly Chicago Fire since I doubt Wicked City does all that much.
Cons
- Part of the pre-season narrative of this season mirrors the one from Minority Report: it is a movie adaptation and, as any pre-sold concept, that should ensure its success in the tracking meters. However, it has done relatively poorly on social media and market research, much like Minority Report – that could spell problems in sampling (although, to be fair, I don’t put nearly as much stock on this as I put with Minority Report since CBS shows never do particularly well on these, just look at Scorpion last year!)
- New Orleans may be a decent enough lead-in but as sure as hell won’t be compatible with this. New Orleans skews old skewing as hell and this show, while not a total misfit with the CBS crowd, has a little bit more edge to it that could very easily put that NCIS audience off.
Bottom Line During most of the summer, I was a firmly believer on this show and I thought it had all the right ingredients to succeed in a pretty relevant way. Recently, I’ve kind of started to doubt myself, since I do not like the negativity of all the pre-season tracking meters.. I think it comes very close to NO on premiere night or even beats it, it stays pretty much even with it for most of the fall, spikes a bit in the Winter (but not as much as the lead-in since NO will get to enjoy the NCIS spike directly) and then falls a bit behind in the spring. All of this would amount to a still very workable number and CBS strongest occupant in the hour once accounting for the lower 9pm lead-in, but not exactly a smash. 1.50
Timeslot: NBC, Tuesdays at 10pm
Lead-in: The Voice | Chicago Med
Lead-out: Local Programming
Episode Order: 22-24 episodes
Competition: Beyond the Tank | Wicked City | ?, Limitless, The Bastard Executioner
Pros
- Chicago Fire is getting a major lead-in upgrade this year! Last year, it had a few nice voice lead-ins but other than that it had to deal with fractional comedies lead ins all season long! That means a major bounce is possible here with the increased lead-in juice!
- The Chicago franchise is getting even more of a promotional push this year with the addition of the third Chicago show! The extra exposure will likely be a positive for the mothership as well!
- The addition of a third Chicago also means that those crossovers that inflate the ratings so much will probably happen even more often!
- The competition is not getting any harder than it was for the most part, unless Limitless explodes in a big way.
- Last year, even in light of bad dynamics for the part (Read: Lead-ins!) the show admirably was still down only 10%! That is a spectacular trend to head into the new season with!
Cons
- I don’t really know… Maybe if Limitless and Wicked City really do explode to unexpected levels this show could take a large hit?
Bottom Line In case you couldn’t guess from the amount of cons I have, I am really positive here. This show exhibited an extraordinary resilience last year when it was able to constantly grow so much from those horrible rated and incompatible comedy lead-ins. So what is there not to like this year when it will get a lot more the voice and a lot more of its own voice boosted spin-off instead of that? As if that weren’t enough, the addition of a third Chicago is also a positive here I believe. It is barely down year to year. 1.78 (-2%)
Timeslot: FOX, Tuesdays at 8pm
Lead-in: Local Programming
Lead-out: The Grinder
Episode Order: 13 (possible 22-24 extension)
Competition: NCIS, Best Time Ever with Neil Patrick Harris | The Voice, The Muppets, The Flash
Pros
- The leads on this show are recognizable TV stars that should bring an audience with them!
- For a comedy, the success this show has had in the pre-season tracking matters has been pretty impressive, even beating out the often much more buzzed about dramas, including on social media. That is promising!
- Although the timeslot is far from ideal, FOX has had moderate success in this tough timeslot with comedies before, with Brooklyn Nine-Nine. It is possible that lighting strikes twice.
- The timeslot could actually be a bit worse if the voice weren’t going to give it a break during its highest rated stages of the fall season.
Cons
- The timeslot is just terrible and there is no sugarcoat it. The show will be asked to self start, often against The Voice, but also against The Muppets and NCIS. That is brutal!
- Despite all the star power, most of the critical love for the FOX comedy has been about the lead-out The Grinder.
- Masterchef Jr. is ready to take over the hour as usual.
Bottom Line It will very tough for these comedies to succeed given the difficulty of the timeslot but I have been impressed enough with the pre-season tracking data to believe that it is possible that these two last longer than Rosewood and that show is the one that gets replaced by Masterchef Jr. Still, the bar for success is pretty low here, so nothing big is to be expected. It is looking like FOX will have enough fires elsewhere so if these comedies get enough 18-34 eyeballs, they might just leave them there the whole year, or at least 13-18 episodes. 1.189
Timeslot: FOX, Tuesdays at 8h30pm
Lead-in: Grandfathered
Lead-out: Scream Queens
Episode Order: 13 (possible 22-24 extension)
Competition: NCIS, Best Time Ever with Neil Patrick Harris | The Voice, Fresh Off the Boat, The Flash
Pros
- This is a critical darling. Critics have loved this show so far and there is a decent shot that if it makes it to January, the Globes back it up and it leads to some additional exposure too.
- Although it hasn’t been as evident as with Grandfathered, this show has also tracked relatively decent for a comedy on pre-season tracking indicators, including social media.
- Copy paste my Grandfathered comment: Although the timeslot is far from ideal, FOX has had moderate success in this tough timeslot with comedies before, with Brooklyn Nine-Nine. It is possible that lighting strikes twice.
- Also like Grandfathered, the timeslot could actually be a bit worse if the voice weren’t going to give it a break during its highest rated stages of the fall season.
Cons
- The timeslot is also terrible! It is just a little bit better than Grandfathered since it gets to air against Fresh Off the Boat and not The Muppets, has higher viewing levels (which makes special difference if they make it to the spring) and could benefit from Scream Queens pre-tune. But it still has the voice, the solid FOTB as comedy option and the always solid NCIS to contend with!
- If Grandfathered tanks, short of a swap (which FOX might not want to protect Scream Queens), it will be pretty hard for this one to reverse things at the bottom of the hour!
- Masterchef Jr. is ready to take over the hour as usual.
Bottom Line My prediction for both comedies goes generally in the same direction so I won’t bother you will all the same again. I think FOX will let them ride it out until the end of the year since they will have more trouble elsewhere or, at the very least, for the first 13. I give this on a slight edge over Grandfathred because the timeslot is better, but the concept is also a harder one to sell, so I won’t go over by that much. 1.213
Timeslot: FOX, Tuesdays at 9hpm
Lead-in: The Grinder
Lead-out: Local Programming
Episode Order: 15 episodes
Competition: NCIS New Orleans, The Voice | Chicago Med, Marvel’s Agents of Shield, iZombie
Pros
- Social media has practically exploded with buzz for this show. It’s safe to say that, at least among the non pre-sold concepts (read: excluding Super Girl and The Muppets) there is no fall show with more awareness than this one.
- The creative team has proven successes like Glee and American Horror Story behind them. And this one seems like a mash-up between those two. Hard to feel bad about it.
- Since it will only air during the fall, it gets to avoid those pesky spring viewing levels!
- There are tones and tones of recognizable stars on this, including some pretty trendy pop stars. There is no way the younger crowd doesn’t eat this up.
- FOX has been promoting this show since May 14th and even before, there were already plenty of coverage on the usual media outlets. Marketing has been insane and FOX should be able to collect dividends here.
- Other than The Voice, the competition is actually very favorable as it either skews way older (NCIS New Orleans) or way more male (Marvel’s Agents of Shield). And it’s not like any of these entries is particularly high rated either.
Cons
- The Grinder might very well go fractional sooner rather than later thus compromising this show. There is only so much it can do with a dire lead-in.
- All of the social media buzz is great but it doesn’t necessarily translates into huge ratings. Look no further than the way CW shows usually dominate there!
- This is the type of thing that usually opens huge but burns out pretty fast. It could be that it has an insane premiere but also an insane in-season drop.
- The always potent The Voice is still looming in the timeslot!
Bottom Line I am very very optimistic about this one. I think the 18-34s will embrace this show in a huge way and that will be more than enough to make for a ridiculously high demo number. And sure, I think it will have a huge drop but since it is just 15 episodes and it has a double premiere, I don’t think it will fall all that much to be concerning, at least for this season (future seasons are a completely different story). Buzz will do wonders for this show, much like it does for the TGIT shows, except this one is doing it with an even younger crowd, more susceptible to those gimmicks. 2.255
As usual, I am waiting to hear from you! Which one of these generally very optimistic predictions sound most insane to you? Where do you see theses shows premiering? Let us know in the comments below!
