After a long hiatus, today fall season is finally upon us. For some of us, the return of the fall season has become something that we eagerly anticipate, not only for all the excitement associated with the return of our favorite TV shows and the sampling of all the new stuff out there, but also for all the excitement associated with rating news!
As such, I thought it would be fun to have a look at what is to come ratings wise this season. For the next few days, I am going to be posting my thoughts and predictions for the shows that will be part of the regular lineup of that weekday (CW shows will come in later since they do not premiere in the next weeks). That means, today we will be covering Monday shows (and, exceptionally, since they are premiering on Mondays, we will also cover The Big Bang Theory and Life in Pieces, although they are part of the Monday lineup).
While I hope my opinions make up for a fun reading, I am actually more interested in hearing your opinions and predictions. I will stick with predicting seasonal averages here but feel free to speculate in the comments not only about that, but also about actual premiere ratings, which is where most of the excitement will come from in the next couple of weeks!
Timeslot: CBS, Thursdays at 8pm (and CBS, Mondays at 8pm for the first few weeks of the season)
Lead-in: Local Programming
Lead-out: Life in Pieces
Episode Order: 24 episodes
Competition: Grey's Anatomy, Bones, Heroes Reborn | ? and The Vampire Diaries
Pros:
- Obviously not everyone will agree here but the consensus last year seemed to be that it struggled creatively. If it is able to get its act together this year, it should help smooth the decline over the year. The premiere in particular seems to have a lot of big stuff, creatively speaking, happening. Maybe that gives it a bit of a ratings boost.
- The show underachieved so much last year in the spring that it is going to be hard to replicate such a colossal decline this year.
Cons:
- That in-season trend was so bad last year that it is very hard to make a case for a turnaround, especially in the early fall episodes where it was massive last season. The Monday y2y comparisons will be ugly.
- No double premiere this year to help out if there really is any huge big bump for the stuff they have in store for it.
- Jerking it around once was bad, but jerking it around twice can even magnify the effect and I think CBS is just playing with fire here.
- The late fall schedule for Thursday is even worse than last year!
- NBC could actually have something resembling competence in the hour unlike ever with Heroes Reborn.
Bottom Line: Yeah, I don’t think it will be pretty. I think it opens in the mid 4s, settles at high 3s for the Monday episode, low 3s for the late fall ones on Thursday, then high 3s and low 4s for the winter episodes and then eventually high 2s for the spring episodes. 3.50 (-19%)
Timeslot: CBS, Thursdays at 8h30 (and CBS, Mondays at 8h30 for the first few weeks)
Lead-in: The Big Bang Theory
Lead-out: Mom
Episode Order: 13 episodes (possible 22-24 extension)
Competition: Grey's Anatomy, Bones, Heroes Reborn | ? and The Vampire Diaries
Pros:
- The Big Bang Theory lead-in!
- Critical response seems to actually be rather favorable for this one.
- Being compared to Modern Family isn’t one of the worse comparisons out there, considering how huge that show is. Maybe the same audience is interested in this one?
Cons:
- None of the tracking measures are very kind to this show, especially as far as awareness is concerned (though that may end up not mattering as much considering what is its lead-in)
- It’s a single cam airing on a network that has trouble embracing that type of comedy.
- The whole “critical darling” angle is not exactly the best mash up with the Big Bang crowd!
- A family comedy after a hangout comedy is typically also not a good combination.
- If it manages to survive Mondays, it will have to endure a move right after to Thursday and air in what are less than ideal circumstances (something that seemed to affect even Big Bang itself!!)
- CBS has more backups than it can count waiting in the wings and it also has a comedy that they actually produce scheduled to air in a horrible slot.
Bottom Line: I do not think this show makes it out of Mondays alive. It can happen but, on paper, there is just such a number of bad combos here that I cannot bet on it going against the odds like that. The fact that CBS doesn’t even own it and that a re-shuffle is all so easy with the Thursday transition just makes my conviction stronger. Over their first 5 episodes, The Millers had 63% retention and The Odd Couple 61%. I think this one will be a hair lower due to all the incompatibilities. Beats Rob as biggest hit canceled by CBS in the first season with a 2.375.
[Side Note: If I am off and the show happens to hit, this actually isn’t a bad number to bet on either, on the opposite side of the spectrum, ironically]
Timeslot: CBS, Mondays at 9pm
Lead-in: Super Girl (and Life in Pieces in the early weeks)
Lead-out: NCIS Los Angeles
Episode Order: 24 episodes
Competition: Dancing with the Stars | The Bachelor, The Voice, Minority Report | Lucifer, Monday Night Football, Jane the Virgin
Pros:
- If Super Girl works, then Scorpion might not just end up with a better lead-in in pure volume, but also in compatibility. Even if it does flop, I doubt CBS lets it get to bad enough numbers on the air, since they don’t even own it and would want to protect Scorpion (especially with the comedies waiting in the wings). And regardless, we know Scorpion can handle bad lead-ins already (see: The Millers)
- The numbers were solid enough all season long last year and it ended with a nice finale spike
Cons:
- Life in Pieces will most likely do worse than The Big Bang Theory (R) did in the early weeks of the season
- It does not really have as much promotional muscle behind it as it had last year, when CBS went completely above and beyond for it
- It allegedly has a 24 episode order which should mean it airs deeper into the spring and is a little bit more exposed to low viewing levels
- While I do not expect anything big out of Minority Report, it should at least be more of a worthy drama competitor than Scorpion or The Following were
Bottom Line : I think Super Girl will open super big and at least initially remain on a good enough level to give some extra help to a show that already had a really decent outlook. Down in the opening weeks of the fall, up in the late fall and the winter and probably down a bit in the spring. I say about a league average decline overall, but a tad higher if you count the Sunday episode from last year. 2.02 (-12%)
Timeslot: CBS, Mondays at 10pm
Lead-in: Scorpion
Lead-out: Local Programming
Episode Order: 24 episodes
Competition: Castle, Blindspot, Monday Night Football
Pros:
- I feel this show underachieved to some degree last year, particularly in the fall, so I think it can get some of that back.
- Scorpion should continue to be solid lead-in support and it shouldn’t have any Stalker there this year, when it hurt some ugly numbers in the spring
- I think Castle will continue to depreciate and that is its biggest obstacle here I think
Cons:
- Traditionally, increased strength of NBC on the post Voice slot here has happened at the expense of CBS, which is not too surprising skew wise. Blindspot could thus really hurt LA, especially in the early weeks of the fall when it should be bigger
- This show already had some data points even post Scorpion before Stalker took over. The result post Scorpion finale was especially bad.
Bottom Line : I would actually be ready to call this show even (after accounting for league average decline, that is) given the aforementioned pros were it not for the big con I have. I think NBC and CBS legitimately hurt each other when they have their dramas go head to head and I think the flashy new thing will win out over the 7 year old show here. Still, there are enough pros here for me not to go crazy with it. 1.35 (-15%)
Timeslot: ABC, Mondays at 10pm
Lead-in: Dancing with the Stars | The Bachelor | Dancing with the Stars
Lead-out: Local Programming
Episode Order: 22-24 episodes
Competition: NCIS Los Angeles, Blindspot, Monday Night Football
Pros:
- The lead-ins should continue to be rather excellent
- Maybe it underachieved too much last year given the extent of the in-season collapse?
- The writers appear to be trying to shake up the show somehow. Maybe that helps?
Cons:
- It had an absolutely lousy in-season trend last year! That won’t suddenly just stop.
- The competition won’t get any easier with NBC becoming visible in the hour
Bottom Line : I really cannot see it suddenly reversing the horrible trend it started last year, especially because the conditions won’t get more favorable and I doubt the creative stuff makes any meaningful difference. Most of the damage is done already though so I don't think it accelerates either, it just replicates it for the most part 1.3 (-18%)
Timeslot: FOX, Mondays at 8pm
Lead-in: Local Programming
Lead-out: Minority Report | Lucifer (?)
Episode Order: 22 episodes
Competition: Dancing with the Stars, The Voice, Super Girl, Monday Night Football, Crazy Ex-Girlfriend
Pros:
- Minority Report should be a more competent companion than Sleepy Hollow or The Following were
- With The X-Files bridging the season, Gotham won’t be exposed to the same weird breaks in the middle of the spring, which should help its late season trend
- If all the promises out there are true and the show does indeed improve substantially creatively, it is possible that helps to stop the audience erosion (and maybe even to attract some former viewers back).
Cons:
- The X-Files bridging is great but it also means it doesn’t get to air in the winter, when viewing levels are better (and when it spiked last year for the winter premiere).
- Super Girl is bound to be a very compatible and strong competitor, at least initially. That is an uphill battle for this show.
- Even if the creative stuff does improve big time, Agents of Shield can attest how hard it is to bring viewers back to the show if that happens too late.
Bottom Line: Sadly, I think the Shield comparisons are the best ones to make here and, unlike Shield last year, I actually think Gotham is having a timeslot downgrade for the most part due to Super Girl and no winter episodes. Unless something huge creatively happens or unless Minority Report brings up a lot of attention to the night (which seems unlikely so far) I say it opens in very low 2s, settles in mid 1s for the fall, and then it is mid to low 1s when it returns in the spring for Season 2B. It’s still a slightly above league average player, but not by much. 1.55 (-29%)
Timeslot: FOX, Mondays at 9pm
Lead-in: Gotham
Lead-out: Local Programming
Episode Order: 13 episodes (not sure if an extension is on the table?)
Competition: Dancing with the Stars, The Voice, Scorpion, Monday Night Football, Jane the Virgin
Pros:
- Awareness should easily be high for this box-office success sequel!
- Gotham, especially in the early fall, should still be an okay lead-in. And even if things get more dire for the Batman prequel later on in terms of sheer volume, it should still be a compatible one, which is perhaps even more important.
- It feels like the type of show the FOX audience is used to receiving, so it should be on brand.
Cons:
- This is a pretty tough timeslot. There is one reality juggernaut here, a second strong reality option and a legitimate hit drama all coming at the show! And, of course, do not forget a little pesky thing called Monday Night Football, which should be especially harmful for the male skewing FOX lineup.
- Reviews have been pretty dire so far and, most alarmingly, tracking indicators do not look good at all. Although awareness is high, intent to view shows up way too low and that can also be felt in the underwhelming social media presence of the show (which is especially concerning given its status as a movie sequel).
Bottom Line: I do not give too much relevance to all the pre-season tracking indicators but when they are all saying the same thing in such a blatant way, it is worthy of note and that certainly seems to be the case here. This should be a highly buzzed entry of the new fall season but, instead, it feels like said buzz is minimal on all fronts. Add to that a very tough timeslot and it is very hard to be positive. I do however think that there are enough “obvious” things about this (Gotham, FOX) for it not to be a total meltdown. I do not know what FOX plan is with this (does it come back after Lucifer? Is it limited?), but my guess is that they cap it at 13 and it comes down to the wire later on in the season for a renewal decision – bubble show until the end. Sounds familiar? Yeah, I am basically predicting Almost Human 2.0. A frontloaded 1.39
Timeslot:NBC, Mondays at 10pm
Lead-in: The Voice
Lead-out: Local Programming
Episode Order: 13 episodes (possible 22-24 extension)
Competition: Castle, NCIS Los Angeles Monday Night Football
Pros
- It has The Voice lead-in!
- Everything I’ve heard about this show makes it sound similar to The Blacklist, the show that was most successful yet on this very same slot!
- It is clearly NBC’s promotional darling of the season.
- Greg Berlantti is quickly building a rather solid track record!
- Its competition is a pair of old depreciating procedurals.
Cons
- Being compared with The Blacklist pre-season is great for sampling purposes but risks elevating a bar too high. That could easily backfire if the show doesn’t deliver right away.
- The Voice is weakening, slowly but steadily. This isn’t exactly the same lead-in The Blacklist found two years ago.
- Monday Night Football is looming and that certainly doesn’t do a show that wants a male audience as well any favors.
- Is it really possible to be positive about an NBC drama?
Bottom Line Surprisingly, a lot of people are actually more down on this than I would have expected. To me, it seems a very by the book type of correct schedule, where it is hard to have it go wrong. Sure, I am not predicting another Blacklist but I think this will follow its way in being to attract enough of the procedural crowd and enough of the younger crowd to make this mass appealing enough. 2.0
What about you? Hit off in the comments below with your predictions! How do you think the returning shows will fare year to year? And which new shows will make it? How will all of these shows premiere?
