Second season shows have a lot to prove when they return. They can either continue to form well or plummet in ratings fast. Recent example of shows that fell victim to the sophomore slump include The Following (FOX) and Under the Dome (CBS). Both shows did surprisingly well in their first seasons but fell pretty hard when they returned for their second seasons.
So from the shows returning this fall on broadcast networks, which ones do you think will fall prey to the Sophomore Slump. Pick your choices in the poll below and discuss in the comments.
You can only pick two shows.
I think it will be Resurrection, SHIELD
ReplyDeleteNah, I think SHIELD will continue to improve next season because of the Hydra arc. I went from really liking the show to obsessing over it after that last season. And now that they have that momentum? The show will be fine and awesome.
ReplyDeleteI agree about Resurrection, though.
My first pick is Resurrection. It was a sleeper-hit kinda thing. No one thought it would do so well, but the ratings kept falling after each episode. I think ti could be doing mid ones this season.
ReplyDeleteThe Originals could also be in trouble, incompatible lead-in plus reeling from Claire Holt's exit. This year might be tough for it.
Resurrection, Reign, Brooklyn Nine-Nine (i think it will drop further on sunday), about a boy
ReplyDeleteResurrection was the obvious choice, if only because it's more of a freshman than a sophmore and ABC is treating it as if it was the later promotion wise.
ReplyDeleteI also voted for Reign even though The Originals and About a Boy were also possible choices, and so was The Millers ,which is missing from the poll.
On the other end of the spectrum I expect The Goldbergs, Mom, The 100 and Shield (initial episodes excluded) to have sophmore bounces and become more valuable players in relative terms.
Shield has so much going for it this year ratings wise. It will sure be down big time in the fall year to year due to the inflated initial episodes comparisons but when the dust settles I think it will be even to up year to year.
ReplyDeleteResurrection and About A Boy
ReplyDeleteSitcoms always have a tough time to keep audience. I would be worried about B99 and About a Boy.
ReplyDeleteReign will have a tough time, but if VD raises it's game and brings back audience, Reign can profit.
Resurrection can go either strong or backfire as well. But if the story holds on, the strong cast can lead an other season.
Depends on how we define slump. I think all of these shows probably will be down quite a bit year to year due to heavily propped up openings. On the whole, though, I imagine just about all of them will flounder a bit on the average.
ReplyDeleteSHIELD has a lot of work to do to become anything more than a slightly-younger-skewing passable performer. Despite all the apologetics from it's fans, hanging out in the upper 1's is not really "hit" as much as "survivor" in the modern landscape. If it doesn't get buzz soon, I see it sliding more.
The Blacklist I think is very likely to take a tumble as well. The show has buzz but it's also becoming more and more apparent that outside of Red, the characters are really not all that interesting. And he's not on enough each episode. The show will either have to shape up or people will bail. Especially once the novelty wears off and the whiny "I miss Season 1" folks come out.
About A Boy had a weak trend for the season. Paired with an even less compatible comedy, it's got an uphill battle despite good will.
I don't even know or care about the CW performers.
Sleepy Hollow has distance going against it. People have short memories/attention spans. And the trend wasn't bad but hardly terrific either. Slump might be a strong word but a softening seems likely.
The Goldbergs seems like the only show positioned to actually go up year to year. Despite the lead-in and early sampling, the show was fairly stable in the mid 1.0's throughout the season irrespective of what else was new on the network. The network made the very smart decision to do with it what they should have done from the start and paired it with The Middle/Modern. It's summer reruns have performed modestly well for summer reruns and have been just a hair behind The Middle. I would expect that to carry over into the Fall, especially with it's summer presence keeping it on people's radars. It's insanely compatible and could even inch up a few tenths.
Reign. The Originals and Shield could go either way.
ReplyDeleteI think The 100 and Sleepy Hollow will be fine. I like Resurrection and I hope it does well but it's another show that could go either way.
Resurrection because it's rating kept falling each episode but I believe it will approve by the fourth episode I started to enjoy it but I usually dvr the show because it came on when The Good Wife came on
ReplyDeleteBrooklyn Nine-Nine I enjoy the show but I don't know if it's going to do well on Sundays
I'd say everything will, I'll be paying the most attention to The Blacklist and The 100 though
ReplyDeleteMy ranking:
ReplyDelete1- Resurrection: lost half of its audience in 8 episodes, mixed reviews (just like Dome and The Following), coming back in the fall instead of getting a 9 month break will help, but I'm not convinced.
2- Sleepy Hollow: it didn't get the criticism of the two mentioned, but it has been off for nine months and people are leaving FOX, it'll get hurt by the network collapse.
3- Reign: TVD is weaker than ever, the former #1 CW show might finish this season as the #4 (behind SPN, Flash and Arrow), Reign has already got a few 0.4s last season and it might suffer collateral damage.
4- The Blacklist: not at the beginning when it is going to air after the Voice, NBC is going all-in to be its thursday anchor by midseason, it is even giving the Super Bowl boost, it might be a home run but it may also hurt what could be their biggest scripted hit in year, since it faces Scandal, NBC thursdays have been off the map and Super Bowl lead-outs can backfire (see New Girl last season).
5- The Originals: moves to mondays against tons of competition, I expect it to be an obvious improvment over HOD and BATB, but a 20+% drop isn't something that's going to surprise me.
The other ones are pretty much at similar positions, Chicago PD seems like a show with its own audience and procedurals are keepers, Mom (TBBT), Boy (The Voice), B99 (Simpsons) and Goldbergs (The Middle) will all be protected by hit shows or solid performers.
The 100's potential might not reach 100% since CW decided to premiere it during the World Series (and oddly enough, the young-skewing CW shows are hurt by old-skewing baseball as we've seen last season) but it'll be probably flat compared to its spring/summer run and will do better than whatever is going to replace it after its 16 episode run.
the originals,reign,shield and the 100. I do watch all of those shows, but i've not known a show produced in the last 5 years to be consistant quality between the first and second seasons. Maybe they will surprise me on that point.
ReplyDeleteDramas:
ReplyDeleteAgents of SHIELD
Resurrection
Sleepy Hollow
Sitcoms:
About a Boy
Brooklyn 9-9
Why do you think Shield will have a sophmore slump when it had such a great trend in the winter/spring last year and when it is getting a timeslot upgrade? I don't get people saying that one.
ReplyDeleteIt feels like there is often one show that falls dramatically in ratings that everyone thought would be safe. For me SHIELD is the most likely candidate to be that show. It's more of a gut feeling than any empirical evidence on the subject. If anything like you said the evidence would be supporting a renewal! So it's just an against-the-odds wildcard pick of mine.
ReplyDeleteI voted for Reign & The Originals but here's a lil note on a few shows:
ReplyDeleteResurrection: Although the break between seasons is short I think a lot of people stuck with season 1 just because it was 8 episodes, I expect a lot of people would have dropped it after that.
Reign: It's lead-in, TVD will probably come back pretty low, plus Reign was getting 0.4-0.5 when it finished last season and kind of lost it's balance creatively near the end.
The Originals: Mondays on The CW are never pretty and it took a dive in ratings last season hovering around 0.7. It also has really heavy competition.
Sleepy Hollow: It's had a long break but I think it should be stable, maybe a small dip but nothing huge. It could also have the advantage of a strong lead-in depending on how Gotham does.
Agents of S.H.I.E.L.D: I think this should be stable too, it got a lot better in the second half of its first season so I think it should be fine.
The 100: I would have said this might go up slightly but its starting pretty late and at an awkward time, It had a lot of positive buzz after least season so people have time to catch up, it was getting a lot of 0.6s last season with the odd 0.5, I think this season it will be 0.6s with the odd 0.7 but i'm probably being too optimistic. It's a longer season too though so by the end of it it could have lower than 0.6, it could go either way really.
I can't comment on the others because I haven't been following their ratings and didn't watch their first seasons.
I think Chicago PD. In my opinion the show started to fall already in the season 1 finale. So disappointing an banal for my taste. But Sophia Bush is in and she's very much loved (I love her too) so I don't know...
ReplyDeleteMillers, I'm surprised it was even renewed, and About a Boy, I do see it going down hill!
ReplyDeleteResserection-it's ratings kept falling,people complained about it being slow paced,boring & Onces ratings aren't what they used to be (& thers a lot people threatening to not watch Once due to Frozen)& most shows fall TTY.
ReplyDeleteThe 100-it's was only a modest moderate performer in season one & CW hasn't had luck with renewing a Midseason show,moving it to fall and it doing well( see:Lux & Carrie).
I hope can Reign & TOdo ok and avoid the slump but idk
Why were suprised Millers was renewed?Its the only CBS owned comedy, they're gonna get it to syndication
ReplyDeleteI didn't know CBS owned the show, I've tried to watch it a couple of times, to me it was so unfunny to me, so I guess with them owning it then I get your point it will be around:)
ReplyDeleteDefinitely resurrection and reign.And unfortunately-TO!
ReplyDeletethe most obvious choice here is resurrection, i watched all 8 episodes and i thought that it was pretty slow and plus it got mixed reviews. ratings wise it went from a 3.8-2.2 in just 8 episodes not a good sign. as for SHIELD i think that it could go either way, theres a 50/50 chance but on the bright side the second half of the season was fantastic, so if SHIELD could keep the pace of the second half the season going into the season at least until spring then in my opinion it should do fine.
ReplyDeleteI think Mom and About a Boy, I think the performances are better than the show's plot.
ReplyDeleteReign and The Originals, along with Resurrection and Sleepy Hollow. Sadly, The Millers can't go lower.
ReplyDeleteBut can The Millers go lower? It got a 1.9 lol
ReplyDeleteI think The Originals will take the biggest hit. Taking the show to Monday will make it a bubble show in short order. I'm also concerned about About a Boy and Resurrection. With only a few exceptions, NBC sitcoms have a way of nosediving into oblivion in recent seasons and Resurrection already took a ratings nosedive toward the end of season one. If that show starts season 2 with sixty percent of the viewers it left off with in season 1 I'll be surprised.
ReplyDeletePeople are just a bit louder on the internet. Even for the actual movie, u will see a lot of expressed rage of it being a bad movie or overhyped. Once will either remain stable or better due to it, depending if it will remain good after first episode. That and s3 held stable from s2, especially do to the wicked arc which was more positively recieved
ReplyDeleteResurrection; though stable by the end of its 3 last episodes, the show wasn't that well recieved and ABC hasn't promoted it as they should have- and seriously, they should have dedicated a little bit more attention to their Sunday line up- and its not just going to face The Walking Dead, but also Football, which is a waaay migther opponent than Believe. So I think ABC has done a poor job there, the show has potential to do good, but a third season renewal could be a challenge
ReplyDeleteResurrection and Reign. Resurrection premiered crazy high and lost a noteworthy number of eyeballs before leveling off...but with only eight episodes last season, can't help but wonder if the downward trend would've continued if it had a 13 or 16 ep order. IMHO, they need to pick up the pace a bit, I'm as ADD as they come and I found myself multitasking during the last 4-5 episodes. Ditto Reign - premiered high and settled lower. If I remember correctly, this show was picked up for a back 9 a few weeks after the premier and it felt like the writers were scrambling to put a coherent story line together for those episodes (although I could be making that up to justify the disjointed feel to them). I watch over half the shows listed so here's hoping that NONE of them have a sophomore slump :-)
ReplyDeleteI'm not sure Resurrection will work as a fall show. It has the slower pace/vibe of a midseason. I think it is not flashy enough so I fear it will be overshadowed. The Originals I would lay money on falling simply because it moves to the worst day on the CW besides maybe Friday. That's a rough place to be for any sophomore show.
ReplyDeleteFor The Originals, it also has a move into a time slot the CW has struggled with for years. Mondays are kiss of death ratings for them.
ReplyDeleteI am betting that B99 drops as well. Reign I think will still somewhat depend on TVD.
ReplyDeleteI expect that The Goldbergs will become a success story given its move to a much, much better time slot. To be honest, I felt like it should have been moved there last year.
ReplyDeleteI'm thinking the 100 just because it's on CW. Though I would like all the shows to return for a third season. I think some of the shows will do good Because over hiatus, people started giving shows on your list a chance. There was a lot of Chicago PD fans gained over hiatus who just watched first season and are coming back to watch second season. As well as some of the other shows.
ReplyDeleteAll the shows from this list that i watched have slumped towards the end of the season. The only one that didn't was Brooklyn 99. It finished with exactly the same quality it started. Not too great but enjoyable. All the others have disappointed me: the originals, shield, sleepy hollow, blacklist even reign. I think these shows will just continue their slow progression: sometimes they will be almost cool but most of the time watching them will be a chore.
ReplyDeleteExcept the 100. I am worried for it. With the introduction of the people who managed to survive inside the mountain, without losing the advanced techonology and the coming of the adults from the arc, the show will completely change its nature. Lets hope it won't be for the worst. But the show will no longer deserve its name. Since it won't be anymore about only the 100 teenagers.
I just hope AoS doesn't. If anything, it deserves to grow given how much better it's gotten.
ReplyDeleteIt will be interesting to see if The CW's gamble of moving TO away from SPN and to the tough Monday so SPN can help launch The Flash will pay off.
I was afraid about TO and pairing it with JTV, but after reading it http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/live-feed/foxs-gotham-named-promising-new-731477 I stopped.
ReplyDeleteResurrection, Sleepy Hollow, About a Boy and maybe SHIELD, The Originals and The 100.
ReplyDeleteI hope that SHIELD doesn't slump because it could after the novelty wears off. Looking forward to solid story lines this season and people kicking ass. Originals should be alright and sleepy hollow too. Reign could go either way, it didn't do that great so it could go down more, not that it is particularly great tv to start with.
ReplyDeleteYeah, you read my mind about The 100, it seems like too many changes in too little time, but well, we'll see, my hope is on Bellamy and Finn, maybe they both are still out there in the woods and maybe they might help the others to escape or something like that, so the show could keep exploding the atmosphere of people going back to basics for a little while longer.
ReplyDeleteThey're all in danger. I'm optimistic SHIELD and About A Boy, but the rest? Meh....
ReplyDeleteI feel the Originals is the most likely candidate to have the worst downfall from them all, because it's Julie Plec running the show.
Shield and resurrection
ReplyDeleteI wish I could've picked 3. As much as I like Resurrection, I do worry that it might struggle this Fall. I hope not but we'll have to wait and see. The two that I did pick were Reign and The Originals. I actually liked The Originals for the most part last season but it wasn't nearly the hit that I thought it was going to be and if the storylines are all over the place then it could really hurt the ratings. Reign was my top choice. I've read some of the spoilers for season 2 and it just sounds terrible.
ReplyDelete