Hey everyone!
Today it's that day that those of us addicted to TV series await so eagerly for months to come: the return of fall TV Season. Most of us go from not having enough shows to watch to not have enough time to watch all TV shows!
But to those of us who follow and love rating news, the return of Fall TV Season also carries the return of the daily ratings excitement (and often worries!). About a month ago I've posted a series of articles with my predictions for the ratings average of each scripted TV show that was going to premiere this early fall and I invited everyone to submit theirs! So I thought that right before the official start of the TV season would be a good opportunity to look at those predictions as a whole and tease what is to come ratings wise! Let's take a look!
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| Show | Average | Standard Deviation |
| Last Man Standing | 1,25 | 5% |
| Arrow | 0,85 | 6% |
| The Vampire Diaries | 0,83 | 6% |
| The 100 | 0,65 | 7% |
| Grimm | 1,3 | 7% |
| Reign | 0,48 | 8% |
| The Good Wife | 1,23 | 9% |
| Chicago P.D. | 1,58 | 9% |
| The Mindy Project | 1,15 | 9% |
| Person of Interest | 1,77 | 9% |
| CSI | 1,42 | 9% |
| Supernatural | 0,93 | 9% |
| NCIS | 2,54 | 9% |
| Law and Order: SVU | 1,58 | 10% |
| Cristela | 1,07 | 10% |
| Chicago Fire | 1,86 | 10% |
| Hawaii Five-0 | 1,36 | 10% |
| The Flash | 0,97 | 11% |
| Nashville | 1,2 | 12% |
| Gracepoint | 1,48 | 12% |
| Blue Bloods | 1,32 | 12% |
| Bones | 1,58 | 12% |
| Madam Secretary | 1,28 | 13% |
| About a Boy | 1,52 | 13% |
| New Girl | 1,31 | 14% |
| Scandal | 2,88 | 14% |
| The Middle | 2 | 14% |
| Sleepy Hollow | 2,03 | 14% |
| 2 Broke Girls | 1,98 | 15% |
| Criminal Minds | 2,36 | 15% |
| Marvel's Agents of Shield | 2,01 | 15% |
| Brooklyn Nine-Nine | 1,36 | 16% |
| Red Band Society | 1,46 | 16% |
| NCIS: New Orleans | 2,13 | 17% |
| The Blacklist | 2,36 | 17% |
| Elementary | 1,44 | 18% |
| Grey's Anatomy | 2,2 | 18% |
| Modern Family | 3,25 | 18% |
| Mulaney | 1,23 | 18% |
| Once Upon a Time | 1,96 | 19% |
| NCIS: Los Angeles | 1,9 | 19% |
| The McHarthys | 1,71 | 20% |
| Castle | 1,77 | 20% |
| The Mysteries of Laura | 1,17 | 20% |
| Forever | 1,37 | 21% |
| The Goldbergs | 1,79 | 22% |
| Selfie | 1,4 | 22% |
| Manhattan Love Story | 1,08 | 23% |
| Revenge | 1,34 | 23% |
| Gotham | 2,3 | 23% |
| Stalker | 1,99 | 24% |
| Black-ish | 1,83 | 24% |
| Scorpion | 1,94 | 26% |
| Marry Me | 1,75 | 26% |
| Resurrection | 1,7 | 26% |
| Mom | 2,1 | 27% |
| The Millers | 2,2 | 28% |
| A to Z | 1,39 | 30% |
| How to Get Away with Murder | 2,38 | 31% |
| Constantine | 1,19 | 32% |
| The Originals | 0,72 | 32% |
| Parenthood | 1,3 | 32% |
| Jane The Virgin | 0,43 | 39% |
| Bad Judge | 1,3 | 40% |
| The Big Bang Theory | 4,87 | 40% |
| Two and a Half Men | 2,43 | 48% |
Lots of data, lots of interesting facts here. I won't bother you too much with my own analysis but just some highlights:
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New shows had a standard deviation of 23% compared to 16% from returning shows! This was a pretty obvious result since these are always the shows harder to predict and associated with a higher degree of uncertainty but it's very clear from this data!
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The CW is pretty much by the book as far as predictions go, with the two new shows and the sophmore show that went through a drastic timeslot change being the ones with the highest deviation. Surprisingly though, that's the most "well behaved" network, with the other ones being all over the place, with the possible exception of ABC where Revenge and Cristela are the only odd placers.
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CBS comedies scored a surprisingly high amount of uncertainty among predictors with Mom, The Millers, The Big Bang Theory and Two and a Half Men all at the bottom of the list and TBBT and TAHM actually being the two less certain predictions of the list!
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Comedy in general seems to be harder to predict than dramas though! I don't know exactly what motivates this but comedy shows up with a deviation of 22% while dramas stick with 16%, a sizable difference!
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Among networks, NBC takes the podium as being the most consensual network with a 21% deviation, with ABC and CBS coming close with 19% each and the CW and FOX actually being the most consensual ones with 15% each! The CW also has 3 shows in the top 5 of most predictable shows, with them being Arrow, TVD and Arrow, which follow only ABC's Last Man Standing!
- In terms of days of the week, the differences are striking with two days clearly emerging as the hardest ones to predict -
Monday and Thursday, with 23% and 24% deviation respectively. Sundays comes after with 18%, followed by Tuesday and Wednesday both with 15% and only then Friday with a surprisingly low 13%!
- Comparing the overall readers' predictions with my own, 7 shows distinguish themselves for the big differences: J
ane the Virgin (43% deviation!), The Originals (20%), NCIS Los Angeles (12%), Castle (10%), The Millers (10%), The 100 (-11%) and How to Get Away with Murder (-12%). The only one of these I would find a bit surprising would be Castle since it's a show that didn't have major timeslot changes and for which I didn't feel I was being especially optimistic or pessimistic when predicting.
Well folks, that's about it for now! What about you? Which predictions surprised you the most? Which predictions you definitely don't agree with? Hit it off in the comments below!
Remember that these will continue to pop up throughout the year before midseason shows premiere (we will have one for sure for State of Affairs and whatever else is announced until then in the middle of the fall), so stay tuned and, of course, enjoy fall season! I will keep updating this post in the meantime!
Previous posts (
Predictions close for these!):
- Monday Shows
- Tuesday Shows
- Wednesday Shows
- Thursday Shows
- Friday and Sunday Shows
People are pretty pessimistic with the ratings; it looks like everything is going down. But it's understandable, last season there were very heavy drops
ReplyDeleteThe normal thing is for everything to fall around 10%. That's the way it has been for years now. That's why you cannot compare ratings from different seasons without adjusting it.
ReplyDeletePersonally, what I do is to predict what I think will happen to the show considering the timeslot, plot, buzz, etc and then I add -10% automatically to every single one of them (except fall only shows to which I take -5% only).
Just curious, when you say "The CW also has 3 shows in the top 5 of most predictable shows, with them being Arrow, TVD and Arrow," what was the other show since Arrow is listed twice?
ReplyDeleteThis is some really cool stuff man..Did u calculate the standard deviations yourself?this statistic knowledge means u have a background in mathematics..right?
ReplyDeleteThanks, glad you appreciated it.
ReplyDeleteWell, to be fair, Excel does all the calculations by itself, but yes, I have some statistics background since my masters was in Corporate Finance ;)
Ups my bad. I will correct it now. It was the 100! Thanks for letting me know!
ReplyDeleteonly looking at the shows I'm heavily invested in:
ReplyDeleteThe Originals with a 0,72 average? That's a bit too good I would say, the show might very well drop to a 0.5 average given it's sh*tty timeslot
Can you explain what this means? What does deviation represent? And the average?
ReplyDeleteYahoo! More stats - my accountant heart has been very happy the last couple weeks! There was an article about IMDB rankings (last week, I think...by Jimmy???) that would be interesting to compare to this at the end of the 2014-2015 season. STV has a large and diverse following so it would be interesting (well, to me at least) to see how not only our predictions compare to the actual ratings but also if there is an correlation to the broader IMDB ratings of the season.
ReplyDeleteBrilliant work!