The official TV season is not far from us now, as it will be kicking in in high gear in little over a month! That means that soon enough those of us who are rating addicts will be salivating again to hear the daily rating news! Meanwhile, whether we like ratings or not, that also means we will all be in stress over the fate of our favorite shows!
Before all the madness starts, I thought it would be a cool idea to preview the ratings of our favorite shows while also playing a little game in which I invite you all the guess the ratings as well! (Credit for inspiration for this idea goes to SpottedRatings which annually does the wonderful Best Case Worst Case feature which I highly recommend). Hopefully at season's end we can all see which one of us is the best with the crystal ball!
We kick things off with the predictions for the Monday shows below! Scroll down to see my thoughts on each show and click on the link at the end to submit your own predictions! Please note that these are predictions for the entire season's average (regardless of any changes to a show's situation, such as a move to a different day). Only shows that are announced as airing in the fall with a proper introduction are included for now (that means, for instance, no inclusion of The Following, which only airs in the winter) - separate posts will be up for those later in the season.
I invite you all to participate while also sharing your thoughts on the comment section! Hopefully this is fun for everyone and a good way to create enthusiasm about the much waited fall TV season!
Mondays
Gotham (New Show)
Lead-in: Local Programming
Lead-out: Sleepy Hollow
Episode Order: 16 episodes
Competition: Dancing with the Stars/The Bachelor, The Voice/?, 2 Broke Girls & Mom, The Originals, Monday Night Football
The Pros:
• Major hype and build-up should ensure high initial sampling
• Strong promotional push from FOX
• Compatible pairing with Sleepy Hollow
• Despite a generally strong competition, all 3 competing hours are female leaning, which means there is a very good chance this show can conquer the male eyeballs.
The Cons:
• Having to face The Big Bang Theory for the first six weeks (including a full one hour episode against the premiere) will be very tough and could very well limit the aforementioned high initial sampling
• Even though the broadcast competition is indeed female heavy, it will have to face the very male skewing Monday Night Football
• History has shown that shows with this much build-up interest pre-season also tend to be the shows that attract more of the “disappointment” commentaries, which are never good for the show’s word of mouth.
The Verdict: Even though I am not entirely convinced that this show will be the answer to all the prayers that FOX is hoping it to be, I am still reasonably confident that it gets renewed, even though I see it being more of an Agents of Shield type of hit than an outright megahit. I do however remain troubled by the effect the big bang theory might have here.
The Guess: I say it equals Sleepy Hollow’s year ago performance (after accounting for overall decline), which considering how much worse FOX is doing, would be a major win. A 2.36
Potential for Major Deviation: High – I don’t think an explosion to mega hit status is out of the realm of possibilities
Sleepy Hollow (2.61 Last Year)
Lead-in: Gotham
Lead-out: Local Programming
Episode Order: 18 episodes
Competition: Dancing with the Stars/The Bachelor, The Voice/?, Scorpion, Jane the Virgin, Monday Night Football
The Pros:
• A more compatible and likely higher rated lead-in from Gotham
• Season 1 was very well received up until the end and FOX has made sure to repeat it plenty of times so it is possible that there has been some catch up cable type of phenomena
The Cons:
• Scorpion is likely more compatible competition to it than the comedies were last year
• The show finished way lower than it started last year and one has to wonder what would have really happened to it had it aired the entire season, especially seeing how much FOX has declined since Sleepy Hollow was on the air.
• The limited series things in which hit shows come up for one season but then stay off the air for 9 months or so hasn’t really been working well (see Under the Dome and The Following).
The Verdict: I am on a loss here. I am not sure if The Following and Under the Dome, two shows critically destroyed during their freshman seasons, are really the best comparisons here. Yet, I also feel bad for ignoring them. What’s more is that unlike those shows, Sleepy Hollow really had a fall off at the end of its season inaugural season. On the other hand, there is that pairing with Gotham which I am sure will help quite a bit (the show was airing from sub 2.0s Almost Human towards the end).
The Guess: The Following fell 40%. I won’t ignore it but I won’t go close to it either. 2.07 (-21%)
Potential for Major Deviation: Average
2 Broke Girls (2.54 Last Year)
Timeslot: Mondays at 8,CBS
Lead-in: Local Programming
Lead-out: Mom
Episode Order: 22-24 episodes
Competition: Dancing with the Stars/The Bachelor/Dancing with the Stars, The Voice/?/The Voice, Gotham/?, The Originals, Monday Night Football
The Pros: Hm... I've got nothing
The Cons:
• Local programming lead-in bound to be substantially lower than How I Met Your Mother
• 8pm viewing levels to be lower than those from 8h30 or 9h
• Competition still going fierce with Gotham, The Voice and Dancing with the Stars
• Missing out the first 6 weeks of the season, aka the weeks with the highest viewing levels of the season
The Verdict: Yet another downwards season for 2 Broke Girls, although the loss of the big lead-in will make it a more justified situation
The Guess: 1.94 (-23%)
Potential for Major Deviation: Low
Mom (2.08 Last Year)
Timeslot: Mondays at 8h30,CBS
Lead-in: 2 Broke Girls (The Big Bang Theory leads into it for the first five weeks of the season)
Lead-out: Scorpion
Episode Order: 22-24 episodes
Competition: Dancing with the Stars/The Bachelor/Dancing with the Stars, The Voice/?/The Voice, Gotham/?, The Originals, Monday Night Football
The Pros:
• TBBT as a lead-in for the first six weeks of the season
• Plenty of summer exposure, with frequent double pumping on CBS including post TBBT (with impressive retention levels) and a full Season 1 rearing on TBS
• 2 Broke Girls is probably a slightly better lead-in than Mike and Molly was
• Mom was never highly sampled to begin with, so the additional sample might work wonderfully here if the show proves to be worthy
The Cons: Nothing comes to mind
The Verdict: Maybe I am just overly optimistic because of all the summer results but I am betting on Mom taking big advantage from all this exposure and from TBBT lead-in early on. Besides, I actually think its regular situation this year (8h30 after 2 Broke Girls) is better than the one it got last year (9h30 after Mike and Molly).
The Guess: 2.25 (+8%)
Potential for Major Deviation: Average
Scorpion (New Show)
Lead-in: Mom
Lead-out: NCIS Los Angeles
Episode Order: 13 (potentially 22-24) episodes
Competition: Dancing with the Stars/The Bachelor/Dancing with the Stars, The Voice/?/The Voice, Sleepy Hollow/The Following, Jane the Virgin, Monday Night Football
The Pros:
• Big promotional push from CBS and big vote of confidence breaking up the tradition of the Monday comedy block for it
• TBBT lead-in for the first episode, which should at least guarantee the show is sampled
• Despite strong competition, the hour is majorly dominated by the W18-49 audience that is split between the voice and dancing with the stars. There should be room for a smart procedural that captures the male audience that is not interested in the fantasies of Sleepy Hollow.
The Cons:
• The competition is fierce (albeit apart from Sleepy Hollow, it may not be that much compatible)
• It’s a drama airing out of a moderately rated comedy (Mom), which has proved to be troublesome for plenty of other dramas in the past
The Verdict: Scorpion really is a wildcard that go easily go way above or way below any line that I could come up with. I think that, at the very least, CBS will ensure the show is properly sampled. After than that, it will have to sink or swim on its own merits and guessing whether or not it is able to do that is a big gamble. I am going on a limb here and say it works and scores a Season 2.
The Guess: Equals Person of Interest freshman season from two years ago (after accounting for the overall decline since then), resulting in a solid 2.07 for CBS
Potential for Major Deviation: High (Extremely high!!)
NCIS: Los Angeles (2.43 Last Year)
Timeslot: Mondays at 10, CBS
Lead-in: Scorpion
Lead-out: Local Programming
Episode Order: 22-24 episodes
Competition: Castle, The Blacklist/State of Affairs and Monday Night Football
The Pros: Nothing Really
The Cons
• Moving to a new night
• The loss of its 5 year high rated and extremely compatible lead-in
• Facing off against two successful and likely very compatible dramas during the fall, Castle and The Blacklist (even though it probably gets easier once State of Affairs arrives)
• Lower rated 10pm hour
• Potential big problem with the lead-in if Scorpion flops
The Verdict: It’s very impressive that NCIS LA has managed to air for 5 seasons and that we still don’t have any idea of the show’s strength without NCIS. The lead-in loss is bound to affect it. However, and this part is not nearly as much talked about, it’s been a long time since NCIS: LA had to face some serious drama competition in the Tuesdays 9pm hour as crazy as that sounds. Now it will have to face two very competent dramas out of the sudden, and I think this effect might even be more serious to it than the lead-in. Ultimately, a lot depends on Scorpion and whether or not it remains there for the full season, but I say that LA does decent enough business here.
The Guess: 1.73 (-29%)
Potential for Major Deviation: Average (if only because so much depends on Scorpion)
Castle (1.94 Last Year)
Lead-in: Dancing with the Stars/ The Bachelor
Lead-out: Local Programming
Episode Order: 22-24 episodes
Competition: NCIS Los Angeles, The Blacklist/State of Affairs and Monday Night Football
The Pros:
• DWTS came back from a very strong spring season so if the surprisingly positive trend continues, Castle may be able to catch the wave and ride up the positive momentum.
The Cons:
• Although Castle was only down 5% last year, the trend was much worse in the second half of the season (it was even year to year by Christmas!), even with a growing DWTS, so the momentum is definitely not on its side.
• Even though The Blacklist and all its success arrived to the slot last year, CBS went total bust at the same time so the hour actually became easier for Castle than when Revolution and Hawaii Five-0 were on the slot. In addition, I think Castle had more of an overlap with Hawaii Five-0 than with the Blacklist. The bad news is that I think it will be back in overlap business with NCIS-LA in the slot and I see Castle really hurting from that clash.
The Verdict: Like I’ve said, I think NCIS:LA will severely complicate matters for Castle and I could see this year being the beginning of the end. Still, I don’t think it is the year it all falls apart. I say it gives away last year’s fall overachievement but gets back on track by spring.
The guess: 1.63 (-16%)
Potential for Major Deviation: Low
The Blacklist (2.89 Last Year)
Timeslot: Mondays at 10, NBC for 8 episodes and Thursdays at 9, NBC for the remaining episodes [The Blacklist will also air a post Superbowl episode]
Lead-in: The Voice for the Monday episodes and ? for the Thursday episodes
Lead-out: Local Programming for the Monday episodes and Allegiance for the Thursday episodes
Episode Order: 22-24 episodes
Competition: Castle, NCIS Los Angeles and Monday Night Football while on Mondays. Scandal, Two and a Half Men & The McHarthys, Backstorm and Reign on Thursdays
The Pros:
• It clearly continues to have the entire NBC’s machine behind it as one can see by the amount of promotion it gets, the fact that it gets to air after the highest rated episodes of the voice of the entire year and the Super bowl episode.
• The show did fall in its voice-less episodes last January but to be fair to it, those were 10pm episodes airing out of low rated reality fare such as Hollywood Game Night. 9pm episodes are much less dependent on the lead-in and enjoy a great viewing level, so one might argue that losing the voice will not hurt it that much this time around.
• The Blacklist was, as NBC likes to claim so often, a record breaker in time shifting viewing, and those are the shows that tend to survive moves the best, especially if they are to earlier timeslots.
The Cons:
• We can argue how much was the voice really propping up the blacklist by season’s end. But I don’t think we can argue that it was propping it up to some degree. And it will lose the voice, so that’s bound to affect it somehow.
• We still do not know what will serve as its lead-in on Thursdays.
• NCIS:LA is much fiercer competition to it than Hostages was a year ago so those fall episodes might also be deflated in the comparisons.
The Verdict: Predicting a season average for something like this, that will move in the middle of the season to a slot still unknown, is particularly hard. I think the blacklist will be only slightly down in the fall episodes if only because the voice will be at its maximum strength during those 8 weeks and I think the Superbowl will ensure it launches well enough on Fridays to settle on a nice low 2s level in there.
The guess: 2.31 (-20%) [Note: Super Bowl episode not included here]
Potential for Major Deviation: Average (simply because there are too many variables at stake here for me to have confidence, particularly the 8pm Thursday lead-in)
The Originals (0.90 Last Year)
Timeslot: Mondays at 8,CW
Lead-in: Local Programming
Lead-out: Jane the Virgin
Episode Order: 22 episodes
Competition: Dancing with the Stars/The Bachelor, The Voice/?, 2 Broke Girls & Mom, Gotham, Monday Night Football
The Pros
• The competition from FOX and ABC Family should get easier or, at the very least, less W18-34 leaning, which is where The Original’s demo strength comes from and it’s not like the show wasn’t used to facing the voice already.
The Cons
• Moving to a new night
• Synergies with lead-out Jane the Virgin are likely to be much less of a help than lead-out Supernatural last year (even if it improves somehow at midseason when something else shows up Mondays at 9)
• The Originals fell considerably during the winter and spring episodes making a comeback to fall episodes seem unlikely
The Verdict: I think The Originals will be hurt and I really don’t see it returning to last year’s numbers. More than the new timeslot, I worry about the very troublesome spring trend. I choose to believe it was all a bit blown out of proportion between all the W18-34 it suddenly came its way and the DST hits that took down the CW as a whole, particularly the 8pm hour. I think the show will be down, yes, but certainly not out, and it will still do decent business for the CW.
The Guess: 0.63 (-29%)
Potential for Major Deviation: Average
Jane the Virgin (New Show)
Timeslot: Mondays at 9, CW
Lead-in: The Originals
Lead-out: Local Programming
Episode Order: 13 (potentially 22-24) episodes
Competition: Dancing with the Stars/The Bachelor, The Voice/?, Scorpion, Sleepy Hollow, Monday Night Football
The Pros
• Despite a major internet backslash upon the pickup, the critics have been surprisingly “okay” about this show.
• The Originals is a decent lead-in and should provide plenty of W18-34 to sample this show.
• Hart of Dixie, which is probably the most comparable show out there with this one, has managed to survive four seasons on the CW.
The Cons
• Critics may do not hate it as much as expected, but the overwhelming reaction to the show is still bad.
• The show really doesn’t fit the overall viewership the CW seems to have these days.
• Hart of Dixie may have survived 4 years on the CW but the CW from four years ago was ridiculously weaker than the CW of today, in which under-performers can easily be cut. Besides, it’s not like the CW doesn’t have plenty of backup shows ready to fill in.
• The Originals may be a high rated lead-in, but is it really that compatible?
• This show is clearly going after the W18-34 audience, but that audience will be pretty busy with the voice and dancing with the stars already. Is there really room for this one at the same time?
The Verdict: I don’t see this show lasting the full season. The competition argument is just too compelling here and like said above, there are plenty of backups ready to come. I can understand the Hart of Dixie comparison but this strikes me more like an Emily Owens type of situation than an Hart of Dixie type. And we all know how that ended up. (Side note: If the Flash is a major hit, I wouldn’t be surprised if Supernatural comes back to Monday to help the Originals restoring the Tuesday pair from last season while The Flash launches iZombie or The Messengers).
The Guess: 0.30
Potential for Major Deviation: Low
Now it's time for you to make your predictions! Click HERE to submit your predictions!
What did you think of these predictions? Do you agree with my thoughts? Share your predictions and thoughts below on the comment sections!
Also, what are your viewing plans for Mondays during this fall? Personally, I will be watching the FOX duo of Gotham and Sleepy Hollow, as well as The Originals and The Blacklist! Still thinking about whether or not to try Scorpion! What about you?
Thank you for reading and participating ;)I will be back tomorrow with the Tuesday shows!
Great work, it is always so hard to decide whether a new show will be a hit or not and shows coming back for their second seasons have no guarantee of maintaining ratings either.
ReplyDeleteI agree about Gotham it is in a tough time slot and often the big new shows fail but I hope it does well creatively and in the ratings.
Also Sleepy Hollow being off screen for so long is a major hurdle I agree with the UOD and Following comparisons even if I dislike those shows but huge gaps between seasons are difficult for network shows it seems. People are used to it with cable series. Mind you no one expected SH to do so well in S1 so maybe it will surprise us again.
I'm only going to be watching those two shows and like I said I hope they do well. I think FOX had some interesting new shows last season with B99 and Enlisted as well (oh how I long for another season).
So sad for 2 Broke Girls. They're always changing its time-slot and I feel like they've lost audience because of it. It was doing really well at both 8.30 and 9. Now it's just going to go downhill.
ReplyDeleteThanks for this, interesting article and makes me very happy that I have a Dish Hopper that will record 6 shows at once. ;)
ReplyDeleteI will be trying Gotham and Scorpion hope they do not disappoint. Watching SH, NCIS:LA, Blacklist, Originals, and Castle.
I'll be watching Sleepy Hollow again and checking out Scorpion.
ReplyDeleteI won't be going back to The Originals, I dropped it before the last season even finished.
I agree with you on Gotham, I never really understood all the hype for it anyway, I think it looks really bad. I think it will get a season 2 but I think it will definitely struggle for a season 3 if it gets one at all.
Gotham seems to have a lot of fans already though so I hope it goes well for them.
I can't wait to read more of these!
ReplyDeleteMonday is big collision day for me. I will be watching/DVRing The Voice, Gotham and Sleepy Hollow. Watching Blacklist. I will be watching The Original and Jane the Virgin the next day on my Roku .
ReplyDeleteFrom this list I'll be watching "The Originals", "Sleepy Hollow", "Gotham", and "Jane the Virgin".
ReplyDeleteThanks for the article, a very interesting read, I'm curious to read your opinions on the rest of the week.
ReplyDeleteI'm trying to reduce the number of shows I watch this season, so on Mondays I'll only watch Sleepy Hollow and give The Originals a second chance (I liked the first half and the last few episodes of last season but in the middle it got a bit lost).
The Forever pilot also airs on a Monday, I'm curious to see how that does.
Thanks for the analysis!! Great job.
ReplyDeleteSH will be hurt by it being completely off radar, but it will still do ok. Gotham will do well enough to get S2.
TO will be OK, but it is really on its own. JTV will be dumped in three episodes
Scorpion is a big risk for CBS and the promos don't really have me excited
Mom has been doing really well this summer after TBBT and I think it will continue to build
2BG, while down because of the inappropriately early timeslot, will benefit a little by having six less repeats (+ a couple of Mondays where CBS schedules special programming) so it's going to run new almost the entire season.
TBL/LA/Castle - Castle will be hurt during first 8 weeks, but will rebound once TBL is going. Castle has been doing well for TNT, so the opp for new fans to discover it is possible. NBC will go from #1 to #3 in timeslot when SOA debuts. LA will be #2 and then #1. No way it does worse than Hostages/Intelligence
Thanks for the kind words ;)
ReplyDeleteRegarding Sleepy Hollow, you do have a good point that it definitely surpassed everyone's expectations going in, so maybe it is able to do the same this year. I think the buzz for this season is very positive so far for what it's worth. I think the problem with the gaps between seasons is that it's a "out of sight, out of mind" thing. It works for cable because they rerun their often one and only hit show over and over and over again during the break so people have plenty of opportunities to catch up. Obviously broadcasters business models are different so that's not possible.
I also think FOX had a decent crop of shows last year, particularly the two comedies you mention, but I think FOX made every single wrong decision possible last year, one after the other after the other. Their original fall lineup was actually quite strong and they were up year to year in several slots (Sleepy Hollow, B99, even Dads, Masterchef Jr) but it went downhill fast because they messed with what was working and only made matters worse for what wasn't working. In the process they threw new shows (Enlisted, Surviving Jack, Almost Human) as well as old shows (Bones) under the bus left and right. The result was a meltown of epic proportions. Let's hope they have a better year even though I again worry about all the changes that their schedule will require at midseason.
Thanks for reading ;)
ReplyDeleteTo be fair, 2 Broke Girls wasn't really doing well this past season at 9pm, it was hitting lows after lows. Moving it to 8h30 was a major effort to protect it by giving it the How I Met Your Mother final season lead-in instead of asking it to anchor an hour by itself. I do think the move was successful to some degree because even though it did it lows again at 8 later on, I think those would have been even worse if not for the additional Mother exposure. One might argue that CBS should have simply done Mother/Mom/2 Broke Girls/ Mike and Molly last year offering the better slot to the new shows (Mom) instead of protecting 2 Broke Girls.
The move to 8 really was a necessity because CBS didn't have any anchors left. Even Mike and Molly was asked to lead off an hour and that was earlier in the season!
Thank you for reading and for the kind words!
ReplyDeleteSounds like you will have a very busy Monday! I wish you luck ;)
Thanks for reading!
ReplyDeleteI stopped watching The Originals in the middle of the first season because even though I adored the fall portion the winter episodes were a bit meh for me and I didn't have the time during the regular season, but I caught up with it early in the summer and I really liked the final portion, especially the finale! So personally I would recommend another try, but to each his own ;)
In regards to Gotham, I think the promos look really cool and I am very exited for this show. What I meant was that the higher the hype and the expectations, the higher the potential for disappointment. Likewise, the biggest sampling a show gets, the higher the probability that people will be disappointed. It's just the way it goes. I don't think it says anything about the quality of the show honestly.
Thanks so much for the nice words and for reading! I hope the next ones aren't a let down ;)
ReplyDeleteThanks for reading ;)
ReplyDeleteYou will have a very busy Monday ahah. I don't think I will be back for the voice this fall. I love the show but I don't really need another edition right now, especially after what I felt was a very underwhelming Season 6, even with my favorite judges' rotation.Maybe I will get back in for the Spring edition!
Thanks for reading and sharing! Have a nice fall Monday!
ReplyDeleteThanks for reading and for the kind words! I hope the next articles don't disappoint you! Meanwhile, can I challenge you to submit your own predictions? ;)
ReplyDeleteI also had the goal of reducing the number of shows I watch but I am not really good at that. I am always very interested in sampling a huge number of shows (and I happen to think this class looks the best ever since the wonderful 2011-2012 class with Revenge, OUAT, Grimm, POI, Suburgatory, New Girl, Scandal) and I really hate to drop shows. Usually if I watch half a season of a show, I will stick with it until the end. What tends to happen a lot is that I don't have time to keep up during regular season so I binge watch a lot during Christmas break and summer. The only show I've dropped this season, and that's for now, is Castle. Noting against the show and I still like the characters but it has just became too formulaic. Sometimes there is a really cool episode that draws me back in but I don't feel like sticking around for all the others just for those. Maybe I will get back with it later on though, who knows;)
Regarding The Originals, I agree 100%. I loved the fall episodes, the winter episodes were very meh (so much that I stopped watching and only binge watched it in summer) and the spring episodes were awesome again, especially the finale.
As for Forever, prognosis tomorrow. I do think it would be a very natural fit out of DWTS! Ideally, I think ABC would have moved Castle to Wednesdays, axed Nashville placed Forever on Mondays and launched The Whispers on Tuesdays, which is bound to be much more compatible with Shield.
Thank you for reading and for the kind words ;)
ReplyDeleteI agree with most of your points, spot on! May I challenge you to submit your own predictions? It would be fun to compare results later on!
Regarding the Mondays at 10 slot, I also agree that LA will likely come out first when The Blacklist is gone, but I am not sure if LA will still be there when that happens. For all we know, Scorpion can flop hard and LA could have to go up an hour leading into either a known quantity (The Mentalist? Undercover Boss?) or a new show (Battle Creek?, Cyber?).
The whole State of Affairs situation is complicated. I am not previewing the show right now because I find it almost impossible to preview a 10pm show without knowing its leadin due to the usual high dependence and we have no idea what will be the lead-in of that show after the first 5 or so episodes when the voice goes on hiatus.
Yep, I'm filling out the challenge next. On CBS, I see two new shows in immediate danger- Madam Secretary, which will bomb in demo from the gate - it gets a little break because it premiers a week early. The other is Scorpion. I wouldn't be surprised to see LA slide up an hour - same with CSI on Sunday and, yes, TM being used in either spot until the midseasons BC/Cyber are ready.
ReplyDeleteI'm sure they won't be haha. I submitted my own ideas. Most of them are pretty similar to yours, you made great pros and cons so you pretty much persuaded me to your way of thinking :p
ReplyDeleteI think Scorpion will flop and Gotham will be a success.
ReplyDeleteThanks for reading ;)
ReplyDeleteScorpion is one of those cases in which I think literally everything could happen. I could easily see it pulled after 3 episodes just as easily as I could see it being CBS's most successful show since Person of Interest.
Thanks for reading ;)
ReplyDeleteI think it's hard to argue against those predictions because they could easily be true. With Gotham, there is so much hype surrounding it and, most importantly, FOX is in such bad shape, that I agree it would be hard for it not to get a second season. The degree of success it enjoys though is a different story.
As for Scorpion, I think it truly is one of those cases in which I think literally everything could happen. I
could easily see it pulled after 3 episodes just as easily as I could
see it being CBS's most successful show since Person of Interest.
Cool ;)
ReplyDeleteI agree with both shows you've mentioned being in very eminent danger, even though I see far more upside in Scorpion than in Madam Secretary (meaning that I could much easier see Scorpion beating the odds and becoming a big hit than I could see Madam Secretary). I would also add The McHarthys to that pack of shows that are in immediate danger
Thanks for the confidence ahah ;)
ReplyDeleteYeah I had that thought while planning this, that everyone would be quite biased by my argumentation and my predictions, but I didn't really come up with a better way to do this. I suppose I could first ask and then submit a second post with my own predictions, but I didn't really like the idea of splitting the discussion.
I agree. Well said.
ReplyDeleteNot too sure about predictions, but I truly hope FOX manages to be #2 in the demo on Mondays this fall. I will always champion a genre lineup and I pray that Gotham and Sleepy Hollow are a powerful combo for the network.
ReplyDeleteAlso hoping The CW finds success in ratings for The Originals, and I personally think Jane the Virgin looks potentially hilarious and charming and the fact that so many critics say it has the same kind of tone as Ugly Betty only makes me even more anxious to see it. Hopefully general viewers won't be as stupidly against the title as people online.
The Blacklist, a show I enjoy but have no need to keep it with it during the season. As much as I loved the first few episodes I just recently watched the first season, and I intend to do the same thing for the next season. FOX and The CW don't compete with it so I don't mind if it's as big or bigger as it was.
CBS can go suck it, I won't be watching any Monday night shows by them. I thought for a second about sampling Scorpion but, it looks a little offbeat and eccentric which means it probably is not going to have a long life. If somehow it lasts the season I'll sample that one at some point. Overall though, I don't care for it's success or failure too much. It's CBS after all.
Everyone except CBS is taking a show's L+7 numbers plus online success into account nowadays and I think Sleepy Hollow is not going to fall too much in overall viewership, probably just live numbers. But if FOX can still monetize it I don't think they'll be in a hurry to cancel it, they need as much buzz as they can get. And plus the show comes from their own studio so I think they will look at the bigger picture to see if they can still call SH a hit and if so I'm not too worried about it.
ReplyDeleteThanks for reading and for sharing up your thoughts! May I challenge you to submit your predictions as well? I think it would be fun to compare them later on ;)
ReplyDeleteAs for your thoughts, I also hope that the FOX lineup can perform strongly and come out second on the night. I think they have a very good shot. And actually I don't think it's unfeasible that they come out first once the blacklist and, especially, the voice, leave this night. I think it's a very strong combo and I would like to see FOX rewarded for it. I still don't have any idea of the type of show that Gotham will be on the weekly episodes though, so I guess it's a wait and see there
Regarding the CW, I also hope that The Originals can stick around. Regarding Jane The Virgin, I personally don't find the show appealing at all but I don't think it's aimed for me either. However, a year ago I was criticizing the CW left and right for picking up Reign and predicting its quick death and now I absolutely love that show, so I definitely know that perceptions, especially those as misinformed as the ones we make during pre-season, can quickly change
Regarding The Blacklist, I could not agree more with you. I like the show but I also don't think I will keep up with it during the regular season. This year I kept up with it during the fall season and the three January episodes but the Spring episodes were all binge watched during summer and I think that's what I will be doing next year as well. I do like the show though, it's simply a matter of not having enough time for all the shows I like during the regular season. I still continue to wish for its success though and I think NBC is making a very good move taking so good care of it, even if I think State of Affairs will become collateral damage in the process.
As for Scorpion, I still haven't decided whether I will try it or not. At first I was really not interested in it, and I think the promos are nothing special honestly, but the reviews have been so good and so many sources/people whose opinions I usually trust are praising the show that I am curious. I also admit that part of me wants to check out the show that made CBS be bold enough to do away with that long comedy hour on Monday, as I think it really is an enormous vote of confidence.
Thanks ;)
ReplyDeleteI don't agree with that. L+7 are still worth zero for broadcasters simply because there are no add sales involved which is the main source of revenue for networks. I think what you are trying to refer to are the C7 which supposedly nowadays are the new "currency" for broadcasters in opposition to the C3 that they were using last year.
ReplyDeleteThese are far different from the C7 since they only include viewers who watch the show DVRed without skipping the adds. I admit that I have yet to see any C7 numbers but the C3 numbers that I've seen in the past are almost perfectly correlated with the Live+SD numbers that we see everyday, meaning that shows performing poorly in L+SD are still performing poorly in C3 and shows performing good in L+SD are still performing good in C3. There are a few exceptions, like for instance Elementary, but those are very rare and they are never that meaningful anyway.
For the record, I don't think Sleepy Hollow is in danger and I agree with not being worried with it, if only because FOX is in such a bad state, but the idea that it will be saved by L7 numbers has no merit IMO.
L7 might have been the wrong term but still, they do now get a chance to make money up to 7 days aftwerwards whatever letter you put in front. There was some news around upfronts how deals were being made to include 7 day viewers and not just 3. Don't know if that included all networks or not and maybe it was just a few networks doing it but - I think it was Deadline - it was reported and the article made it sound like a big deal. Maybe it wasn't but regardless at least two networks said 7 days worth of data will now be much more important than initial overnights
ReplyDeleteI'm in line wih most of those predictions.
ReplyDeleteStarting with CW, I believe that TO will be hurt by the huge competition, it'll definitely manage to be above the previous performers like 90210, TCD and HOD, Jane The Virgin will probably repeat BATB ratings-wise and be gone after 13.
On NBC, Blacklist will probably get high 2s for its fall run then drop to low 2s on thursdays, I believe that the whole Scandal-Blacklist situation will cannibalize both, as Scandal is a serialized drama finally facing tough competition (and a procedural like Blacklist is more resillient) while TB will have to hold on his own for more than 3 weeks it did in 2014.
On CBS, there are lots of ifs. Six weeks under TBBT will be enough to provide a spike for Mom, but 2 Broke Girls lost its anchor status, CBS knows that TBBT is their only anchor left, Mother is gone, Men will be too, Mike and Molly is at the same level, 20% seems reasonable. I predict NCIS:LA drop to be a bit lower, but considering how Five-O collapsed when NBC started its monday domination, I understand why it could drop to 1.73, Scorpion is a tough one, neither would I be surprised if it becomes a surprising hit nor if it is DOA.
On ABC, I kind of believe on Castle's resillience, but its competition is bigger than ever, CBS doesn't have a dead hour anymore, I predict a slightly lower drop but I agree it wont match last fall numbers, when it was flat or even up y2y.
FOX's job is to avoid Sleepy Hollow's slump, The Following and Under The Dome trends, down close to 40% are worrisome, being nearly 9 months on hiatus is complicated on broadcast TV and the network overral (sans Ramsay show) has gone downhill, the show itself didn't disappoint people but the trend (including last season's final episodes) says it could be down more than 20%. And Gotham is their all-in bet to a major rebuild, FOX highest rated scripted offers (non-animated) were pulling mid 1s, FOX will be happy if it does above 2.0. SHIELD looks like the best comparsion, I expect a huge premiere, but people could leave the show after it given it's a "boom or bust" show. In the end, SHIELD has become a solid performer for ABC and its winter/spring trend was pretty much steady, but FOX seems to struggle a little bit more to hold its audience for new shows, see the fact that they've often had huge premieres that turn to average performances or even cancellations like Alcatraz and Terra Nova. Even 24, a show that built an audience for a decade had a huge week 2 drop for Live Another Day.
What a fantastic idea - predictions submitted!
ReplyDeleteI think Gotham is going to start off high - all the hype is going to get people to tune it but unless it blows everyone away - I think it will fizzle out a bit and settle somewhere between 2.0 and 2.2. Which for FOX is a major win (hell, a 1.5 is a major win for them right now) so I think it will get picked up for a second season.
Sleepy Hollow's drop off in ratings at the end of last season was worrisome but there has been so much buzz around it again that I think it will gain some, if not all of that loss back.
The Blacklist could suffer some losses not from competition but from shooting themselves in the foot if they don't start giving the audience some answers. I love the show but they really need to start giving us some more info on Red's past on his connection to Liz otherwise I think it will start shedding viewers...not enough to endanger a 3rd season but enough to put a noticeable dent in that 2.89 average from last year.
I am most excited for Scorpion. I miss Numbers and this show reminds me a bit of it. I hope it will do well but in reality, if it isn't hitting consistently in the 2.4-2.6 range, it may not survive on CBS (FOX yes, CBS no). I predicted a number in the mid to high ones because I don't think TBBT will be helpful with Mom in the middle and I think NCIS:LA is going to suffer some losses without the Mother Ship as a lead in - and when TBBT moves back to Thursdays, well I think there will be casualties and I'm afraid it will be Scorpion.
Last year, Mondays were painful for The CW. I don't see that changing this season. I think The Originals is going to get slaughtered in that time slot. I predicted a 0.6 but I think that may be wishful thinking. Jane the Virgin was fighting an uphill battle from the moment it was picked up. I predicted a 0.3 but that too might be wishful thinking - I would not be surprised if it pulled a 0.1 or a 0.2 and was pulled from the lineup after only a couple episodes.
I don't watch 2 Broke Girls or Mom and I moved Castle to the "Binge Watch the DVD's in Summer" pile a couple seasons ago. I predicted each to drop a bit with Castle getting the biggest drop due to increased competition.
Until tomorrow......
Thanks a lot for this very informative article! I enjoy The Originals so I really hope it does well when it returns. And I agree this pairing with Jane the Virgin is kinda weird considering they're thematically incompatible (sort of) even if it makes sense in terms of the target audience being women for the most part.
ReplyDeleteI'm also excited for Gortham and I really have to catch up on Sleepy Hollow !
Are we getting one of these for each day?
ReplyDeleteBut the difference between L7 and C7 is quite meaningful, that was my point, it's not just a matter of terms.
ReplyDeleteWhile it is indeed a big deal for networks to get advertisers to pay for C7, it's essentially meaningless for individual shows. Here's an example:
Imagine shows A, B and C with Live+SD ratings of 1.0, 2.0 and 3.0, respectively. With this ratings, you can say that show B has a rating 100% higher than show A and show C has a rating 200% higher than show B. Now imagine that their C7 numbers are 2.0, 4.0 and 6.0, respectively. You will still say that show B is 100% higher than show A and that show C is 200% higher than show A. See my point? The thing with the C7 numbers is that they are very much proportional to the Live+SD numbers that we see everyday. So while networks will indeed profit more from the C7 numbers, in terms of chances of survival for individual shows it's pretty much irrelevant.
Hey there, thanks for stopping by and reading ;)
ReplyDeleteWell personally I've let Castle go for now cause I was feeling it a bit formulaic but I may end up checking it out again later on, who knows!
Hey there! Thanks for taking the time to read and stopping by! May I challenge you to submit your own predictions as well? Since we always seem to share these ideas, I think it would be cool to find out at the end of the season which one of us is best with the crystal ball! You've practically done so already in the comments anyway, so I am really interested in seeing how you would do!
ReplyDeleteLike you've said, we really are in line with most of the predictions and I tend to agree with most of your comments.
Regarding NBC, I am not so sure that Scandal and The Blacklist will cannibalize each other as I am not entirely certain how much of an overlap there is between the two of them. I would be shocked if Scandal didn't easily top the hour though. I still find it very tough to talk about this not knowing what the 8pm lead-in for The Blacklist will be though. Even though lead-in is not as relevant for a 9pm show as it is for the 10pm one, I still find it quite a relevant factor. Anyway, more on Scandal on the Thursday post!
As for CBS, I agree entirely about Scorpion. Like I've said on my post, I would not be shocked with anything that could happen with it, either huge hit or huge flop. I think CBS is kind of in the same boat as we are though. They made a huge gamble and they know it could go many ways. I say kuddos for them, because there is at least some upside here. With LA, maybe I went overboard with the drop but I am very affraid of these situations where shows leave such a protected timeslot and are left to fend on their own. Remember what happened when Private Practice left the Grey's orbit and had to air after Apartment 23? Yikes. But yeah maybe I exaggerated. We shall see...
I also agree about FOX. I also think the explanation for FOX's big fall offs has to do with the audience that the channel has, which is the youngest of any of the big 4 broadcasters. By definition, this audience is not only the most fickle one (as in likely to try out something ad not keep up with it) but likely the most prone to timeshift viewing. With 24, for instance, I remember seeing reports during summer saying that the DVR numbers were through the roof, so I am sure that if you looked at those the drop off from the premiere wouldn't be nearly as bad. The problem, as always, is that those are majorly not worth anything for the networks.
Hey there! Thanks a lot for reading and for the kind words and, of course, for the participation!
ReplyDeleteI also apologize in advance for the time it took me to get today's post up, but I was traveling during the day, so I couldn't do it sooner. I hope it didn't disappoint!
I think we are generally aligned in our views! In what concerns FOX, you are a bit more optimistic than I am about Sleepy Hollow maybe, but the bottom line, like you were saying, is that anything even remotely similar to a 2.0 should be wonderful for FOX and this Monday duo has a high likelihood of achieving that and of being FOX's highest rated two hours of the week, so they should be fine.
I agree with you about The Blacklist that they should advance the story a bit more soon. I personally binge watched the later portion of the season during summer and I much prefer it that way since the show is not very high paced in weekly episodes and this way you don't really get to feel disappointed with that because over the course of 10 or so episodes there is enough stuff happening.
As for Scorpion, we definitely disagree on what the threshold for survival is! Last year, Mom was renewed on CBS with a 2.1 average and that's a comedy - CBS is usually much more aggressive with the comedies than with the dramas because the dramas are lower rated in general for them and because the dramas give them syndication revenue later on in most cases. I say that if Scorpion does anywhere near a 2.0 it should be back. After all, CBS also renewed Elementary (1.73), Person of Interest (1.97), CSI (1.89), The Good Wife (1.42) and The Mentalist (1.45) last year with averages often well below a 2.0 [even if it's not apples and apples comparisons because of how much number of episodes and syndication considerations affect these decisions]. Hell, even NCIS LA only had a 2.43 average, so I am sure CBS doesn't expect that much from Scorpion!
Regarding the CW, I think people are exaggerating a bit on the difficulty of the timeslot. Why do you think it is that difficult for a W18-34 leaning show like The Originals? Sure, there is the voice, but it was already facing it on Tuesdays. Personally, I think its spring trend is much more cause for concern than the new timeslot.
Finally, in regards to Castle, I've also dropped it for now, I am not even sure if I will catch up on it during summer. I probably will since I am never really able to drop my shows, but for now I don't really have the time for it. I like Castle and sometimes they have some truly wonderful episodes, but I find that it has too many very boring and formulaic episodes, and I simply not willing to sit through all of those to get to the good ones. It's still entertaining but I have too many procedurals in my rotation right now.
Hey there! Thanks a lot for reading and for the kind words, it was my pleasure to write it! The Tuesday post is also up now if you want to check it out! By the way, can I challenge you to submit your own predictions? It would be fun to compare results later on!
ReplyDeleteRegarding what you were saying about the CW pairing, we definitely agree that the pairing is very odd. I truly think there is a chance that they simply move Supernatural there come midseason to help out The Originals while using The Flash to launch something new. I think it would be a good bet from the CW!
Hey there again! Yes, one for each day, although I will probably merge the Sunday and Friday shows on the same post since there aren't that many of them. The Tuesday post is up now, I apologize for the delay but I was traveling during the day so I had no chance of doing it sooner.
ReplyDeleteBy the way, can I challenge you to submit your own predictions? It would be fun to see what you think and to compare predictions later on at the end of the season ;)
Thanks for replying, I accept the challenge, here are my predictions:
ReplyDeleteGotham: 2.34
Sleepy Hollow: 2.01
Mom: 2.23
2BG: 1.91
Scorpion: 1.87
NCIS:LA: 1.95
Castle: 1.67
Blacklist: 2.28
The Originals: 0.62
Jane the Virgin: 0.30
Thanks for replying! No worries about the later posts - was glad to see Tuesday pop up while I was looking for something else :-) I submitted my predictions for Tuesday but I'll leave the commentary for that post!
ReplyDeleteI think my optimism for Sleepy Hollow comes from it being one of the few FOX shows from last year that I really liked and actually couldn't wait for the new episode to post online (I don't own a TV so I can't watch live). I am looking forward to more FOX shows this coming season though so I am hoping that Sleepy Hollow can at least stay in the 1.9-2.1 range for the season.
I hope you are right about Scorpion. I feel like it needs to hit the ball out of the park because it's a freshman show that lacks a powerful franchise behind it (like CSI and NCIS) and is not approaching or past syndication status yet like several of the others. CBS is good to their procedural shows though so it may survive if in the vicinity of a 2.0 - guess it also depends on how the other Freshman shows do and what they have in the pipeline for the 2015-2016 season. Either way - hope you are right on this one!
My logic behind The Originals getting killed boils down to these three things (besides still having to contend with The Voice):
1. TBBT at the top of the hour with it for the first six weeks. Demographics on that show are crazy so that competition is fierce no matter what gender or age range you are looking at. And while it might only be temporary, I think it will be enough to hurt the year over year totals.
2. I think Gotham is going to be big for at least the first three weeks. The buzz around this show is deafening - add that on top of the eyeballs that TBBT is getting and there aren't many left (male or female).
3. Only the critics seem to like Jane the Virgin. The best I've heard from most of the people who have seen the pilot is that it wasn't as horrible as they thought it was going to be. If people aren't interested in JtV, or turned off by the title, they may give up on the whole night. And pairing The Originals with JtV still has me scratching my head.
Even if TBBT and Gotham skew male, I think there is going to be a significant number of females tuning in into these shows and even if they don't stay with them, the year over year numbers may not be able to recover after a low start - even if it's only a few weeks. Here again, I hope I'm wrong. I like The Originals and hope that this isn't a death sentence for it!
OK - on to Tuesday.....
Looking forward to Gotham this fall.
ReplyDeleteI agree about the Blacklust. The finale episode was a "cold" one.With no answers given and hardly the exciting cliffhanger.I saw the interview of James Spader/Writers at Comic Con. It dint really help since they answered basically nothing and said that they would "prolong" the answer to Liz/Red relation and how it doesnt matter what was it in the past, lets look into the future. But the entire premise of this show is on that very main question "Who is Red to Liz Keen?" I see another "The Mentalist" here.
ReplyDeleteGotham looks sort of interesting, but after last years Almost Human, I won't be viewing any of the Gotham episodes live. Would rather wait for a potential announcement if there's a Season 2, or in the very least decent ratings. Been burned too many times by FOX shows (Terra Nova, Alcatraz, Almost Human). Kinda worried about NCIS:LA, since it and NCIS are my two favorite Tuesday shows. Hopefully it can hold it's own on Monday nights, with a potentially successful 3rd NCIS series on Tuesdays.
ReplyDeleteI too wonder about how the long wait between seasons will affect "Sleepy Hollow" when it returns. At the same time, the fanbase that it does have is very passionate and anxious for the show to return, and the show's been doing a good job of working on promoting itself these past few months when and where possible, and FOX showing reruns in the lead up to the new season is a good idea as well. So hopefully if the show can keep the buzz and promotion going strong, that can help it overcome any possible issues with the long wait. Speaking as a fan of the show, I certainly want them to come roaring back next season, so here's hoping that winds up being the case.
ReplyDeleteThat'll definitely be one of my "watch live" shows (unless I have to work on a Monday evening)-I'll watch the first hour of "Dancing with the Stars" and then DVR the rest and flip over to "Sleepy Hollow" instead. "Dancing" is a show that's best watched in recorded form, anyway-can fast forward through any chatter or musical guests that don't grab me and just go straight to the dances themselves. And the list of celebrities appearing to dance will determine how interested I'll be in the season as a whole as well, and if the list isn't that great, then the DVR will be even more welcome as a result!
I've not seen "Castle", but I am still curious, in a "watch from the sidelines" sort of way, about how that show will do this season, considering the way last season's finale divided fans, from what I've read online. Hopefully they can get that sorted out to viewers' satisfaction.
My Monday nights this fall: Gotham, Sleepy Hollow, The Blacklist.
ReplyDeleteGlad I'm not the only one who thought that finale fell a bit flat. The two-part midseason episodes were much better. I agree with you on the premise of the show - wasn't that even in some of the marketing leading up to the show? There are so many shows that I want to watch this season that if The Blacklist doesn't start giving up at least SOME answers, it may get relegated to binge watch on DVD's despite my love for James Spader. I can live with not answering who Red is to Liz, IF AND ONLY IF, they start giving us some more details on Red's past and who Berlin is and how he relates to Red and Liz. After a full season, it shouldn't feel like we are still putting all the chess pieces on the board!
ReplyDeleteI've only seen one season of The Mentalist (it's in the watch pile that just seems to keep growing!) but my mom watches it and I remember her complaining about the lack of answers surrounding Red John for many seasons. I sincerely hope The Blacklist does NOT go that route!
Great work + great read! Only one show I disagree on and that is Jane the Virgin. I fit into the demographic and I've never watched (nor do I ever plan on watching The Voice or Dancing with the Stars) but I will be watching Jane the Virgin live. The pilot was fantastic. Fingers crossed it does well!
ReplyDeleteI do hope you check Castle out again.
ReplyDeleteI love the originals! Can't wait til this fall.
ReplyDeleteSaw Gotham and Scorpion pilots at San Diego Comic Con last month. Scorpion is, to say the least, quite quirky and faultless in interweaving moments of humour with the emotional and action moments of the pilot. I hope it does extremely well.
ReplyDeleteAnd being a DC comics fan in general and having waited close to 6 hours to get into Hall H for the DC/WB event, I hope Gotham succeeds just as well. Although for someone knowing the basic origin of Bruce Wayne the show could be a bit slow for some people, but I truly have no idea where Gotham will go beyond the pilot. It's surprising in how it ties in the few of Batman's foes/friends (e.g., Riddler, Penguin, Poison ivy, and Catwoman) in these early years however.
I have a feeling Gotham will follow the same trajectory as AoS last year: huge premiere after all of the buzz, a major decline in subsequent weeks when people realize that A) it's not really an Avengers/Batman show and B) TV can't do the huge action scenes, stunts and effects that movies can (although that's not really news...). Personally, I love AoS, but the lack of superheroes in the show is apparently many people's beef with it, despite the fact that the very title should indicate it's about human agents without powers.
ReplyDeleteWhat about Saturday shows?
ReplyDeleteI'm going to watch Gotham, Sleepy Hollow, and The Blacklist on Mondays this year.
ReplyDeleteAs for The Originals, I dropped it last season when Rebekah left, finished the season during the summer, and it will remain a summer show for me next season too. It had a great start last year but it lost momentum and too many episodes during the 2nd half, especially without Rebekah, were simply not interesting enough for me to keep watching it on a weekly basis.
Yeah I am also surprisingly excited about it too, I think it's because of how much I loved the finale. Still wish they would bring back Rebekah full time though, she was my favorite.
ReplyDeleteMaybe ;) We shall see!
ReplyDeleteRegarding The Originals, I have an important counter argument there to your points which is the fact that both TBBT and Gotham are premiering two weeks earlier than The Originals is.
ReplyDeleteThis means that TO will only have to go head to head with 4 weeks of The Big Bang Theory and that it will not have to face the two opening weeks of Gotham, which in this type of shows tend to be by far the highest rated ones (See also: Shield last year). Meanwhile, the response to the finale from TO was quite positive so I imagine there will be enough people coming back for te premiere. As long as that episode doesn't screw it up, I think it will do fine for 3 more weeks against TBBT and then it gets significantly easier when 2 Broke Girls shows up in the slot. Gotham will also be there, true, but TO was facing Shield last year and it did just fine. I really don't think there is much overlap in there.
I do agree with you that it won't get any help from the Jane the Virgin pairing but plenty of shows have survived having bad lead outs over the years. The Vampire Diaries is a good example, remember Beauty and the Beast? A good lead out like Supernatural has proven to be can definitely create synergies and help out the lead-in, but by no means a bad lead out is a death sentence for the lead-in (if anything, it's much more the other way around).
I doubt The Blacklist will go down that route for much longer. The character of Red is more than interesting on its own to sustain the series long term and create other serialized arcs while involving Lizz in another capacity that is not of the mysterious type.
ReplyDeleteHey there! I appreciate your interest but unfortunately I don't think i am up for the challenge. Broadcasters are a bit more predictable because I can use past trends and examples and because so much hinges on the dynamics of lead-ins, competition and viewing levels. Cables are a different beast and I don't even have information about the history of the shows to venture in that reign I am afraid.
ReplyDeleteSo in answering your initial question, Saturday will not be covered since there really aren't original scripted shows on the broadcasters on Saturday.
Hey there! Thank you for reading and stopping by! Can I challenge you to submit your own predictions as well? https://docs.google.com/forms/d/1Nin060hRFqs65wtJePSfXDuTy-ucx7g_bfCciM80RQA/viewform I would be interested in seeing your thoughts ;)
ReplyDeleteRegarding The Originals, I understand how you feel and I was also very hesitant in terms of watching TO last fall. In fact, I almost skipped it entirely. I am very glad I didn't though because I find the show very much worthy of my time and well done. Claire Holt's character, Rebekah, was actually my favorite one on the show was I was bummed when she left and my interested died down a bit by that point, but the show is still good and it ended up the season with what I thought was a FANTASTIC finale. Also, Claire Holt is still recurring every now and then and she is allegedly supposed to be back at some point in the future.
Hey there! Thank you for reading and stopping by! Can I challenge you to submit your own predictions as well? https://docs.google.com/forms/... I would be interested in seeing your thoughts and compare our predictions at season's end!
ReplyDeleteIn regards to Gotham, I totally understand how you feel. I've changed my policy quite a few times now lol. Two years ago, I didn't watch anything post pilot that looked like was going to be cancelled, including some shows in which I was reaaaaally interested like Last Resort or 666 Park Avenue. This past season though I actually decided to watch the full seasons anyway so I watched shows like Almost Human and The Tomorrow People even though they were in danger and even shows that were slam drunk cancellations like Intelligence or Star-Crossed. I don't regret it but it's certainly harder to deal and it makes upfronts much ore painful. I don't know what the best approach is to be honest, so to each his own. I am still sad about Terra Nova every time that one is mentioned. I know the show got tones of hate but I really liked it, I was really sad about that one.
I think you don't have to worry about LA. Sure it won't probably be a big hit anymore, but there will be plenty of uses for the show for CBS unless it totally collapses. I think it can probably stay put on Mondays for at least a couple of seasons and then if things aren't well it can start on the Sunday/Friday rotation where I thin it could last quite a bit as well. It should be fine.
Hey @Angela ! Thank you for reading and stopping by! Can I challenge you to submit your own predictions as well? https://docs.google.com/forms/... It would be fun to see how your thoughts translate into actual predictions and compare results at season's end!
ReplyDeleteYou give some compelling arguments as to why Sleepy Hollow should return in good shape and at least in better conditions than fellow limited series Under the Dome and The Following. At the very least, you can tell that Sleepy Hollow has a lot more buzz going for it than the other two did at the beginning of their seasons. I also think showing reruns is always a good thing, and god knows FOX has been showing a lot of reruns for this one! It's the closest treatment we have of what cable shows have, so maybe that's a good thing. Then there is also the Gotham factor of course, which is certain to help out Sleepy Hollow, at least initially.
In regards to Castle, I wouldn't give too much reaction to fanbase reaction since that has happened in the past too and nothing really happened ratings wise. I think the type of fanbase that actually bothers to come online and express their feelings in such a passionate way (even when disliking it), is the type that will stick with the show regardless IMO.
I don't think that was the problem with AoS. When I started watching I knew the show wouldn't have any heroes in it and it wasn't an avengers show. My problem was the terrible writing and characters so I quit watching around episode 4/5. I know many people say it has gotten "so much better" but I don't feel like catching up.
ReplyDeleteAt least Gotham is promoting itself as a origin story and they are using Jim Gordon/the villains a lot more than Bruce Wayne.
Hey @Alex Forrest ! Very cool finding you here, thank you for reading and stopping by! Can I by any chance challenge you to also submit your own predictions? I am very interested in seeing how do you do with the Crystal Ball since we often bite our nails together when waiting for the daily ratings (oh Revenge...). https://docs.google.com/forms/d/1Nin060hRFqs65wtJePSfXDuTy-ucx7g_bfCciM80RQA/viewform Please go ahead ;)
ReplyDeleteIn regards to Gotham, I agree 100% with you. In fact, when answering Braiden's comment below I mentioned exactly that as well, that some people will go in thinking they are going to watch a Batman movie, even though nothing was ever said about that, and will then claim to be disappointed and to hate the show. I am right there with you though in that I love Agents of Shied and I wouldn't mind at all if Gotham was of the same quality. I think it's a bit unavoidable though, that whenever there is a big sampling and buzz there will also be a lot of hate and disappointment, if only because there are a much higher number of people sampling initially and by definition you cannot please everyone, so there will always be more people to complain. As long as the audience it ends up with is stable enough, like Shield's audience was, the show will be ok.
Hey there. Thank you for reading and stopping by! May I also challenge you to submit your own predictions? https://docs.google.com/forms/d/1Nin060hRFqs65wtJePSfXDuTy-ucx7g_bfCciM80RQA/viewform
ReplyDeleteIn regards to Shield, I think that' a personal thing and I never thought the writing was horrible or that the characters were terrible. I admit it took me a bit to warm up to the characters, particularly the Fitz-Simmon duo which I found very redundant at the beginning and even characters like Ward, but I never thought it was bad. I found the first half of the season to be average, never horrible. The second half though blew my mind, especially the last third, it really is incredible. If you are into the Marvel movies, I really recommend that you fight your resistance and catch up with the show, it's totally worth it and it's like watching a different show. Also, a lot of things that could have potentially been bothering you about certain characters and that could have felt like bad writing or acting are put in perspective and explained when certain things are revealed, without spoiling the show for you.
Thanks for the reply and for your take on the CW scheduling/pairings system as well! And what you said about SPN and TO pairing really makes sense. I may be wrong but I just don't see TO and JTV doing good together.
ReplyDeleteOn another note, I'm afraid I can't accept the challenge as I really don't know that much about TV. I'm actually reading those articles to get more information about how all of this works (I wanna know if my favourites are in trouble lol!) behind the scenes in a way! It's always interesting to see how TV works and what might the motivation be for a network to schedule their shows the way they do.
That being said, I can try to talk about Jane The Virgin though. Personally I think it could surprise us. Having seen the trailer I thought it wasn't as terrible as I thought it would be and it kinda reminded me of Ugly Betty (and I'm sure the writers had that reference in mind.) Plus, the actress looks lovely and I'm quite convinced she'll be able to make her character likeable no matter how ridiculous the premise of the story sounds. Not sure I'll tune in but maybe it'll find its audience. So maybe this show will work but if everything happens like you it would, I wonder which show the CW would want to pair it with.
About The Originals, I do think they'll have a good start this season. Plus the story will apparently focus more on the Mikaelson's family dynamics as Mikael, Esther and another Mikaelson brother are back from the grave. Kol will be shown in a flashback and he's got a huge fanbase so I think people will definitely tune in. Rebekah (one of my favourites) will be recurring I think. And let's not forget there's a TVD/TO crossover in the works that's set to be happening in the first half of the season so I'm pretty sure it will drain even more audience. I expect the ratings to drop after the midseason finale. Spring has apparently never been a really good period for TV? As for the rest of the season I don't really know and I guess we'll have to wait and see. It all depends on how the writers will handle their storylines and their characters development this season to make it all work. I'd like to see some of their characters being more independant and less reliant on others like Cami (who I really love) but I feel like she really needs it. Anyways, I'd also wish for less fan-service (shippers-service mainly) that could actually happen during the crossover for instance. But I'm getting off topic here lol!
P.S : I'll definitely check out the tuesday post ;) !
I had zero expectations of Scorpion. It was just a panel/screening at a time that day that gave me something to go to and I'm so glad I took the chance. For me having/am studied/studying psychology and hoping it to be a career down the track (in addition to writing of course) I thought Scorpion handled the high-functioning/low-responsive behaviour with extraordinary respect and I hope will shed light about such individuals to the general public in regards to schooling and just general behavioural patterns (in terms of genius vs. disorder) in a way that no other show has done before. There were no stereotypes. Perhaps it's because the man that the show was inspired from is heavily involved in the creating of it.
ReplyDeleteThe pilot of Gotham was fantastically written and smart, which for me can't be compared with Agents of SHIELD since I thought the writing was terribly shocking the entire way through (I only watched the first 6 episodes and about the last 6 - didn't want to waste my time with it). But what Gotham has going for it is that, yes, it is an origin story, but it also involves characters that we've known and have loved for generations on film and television. Agents of SHIELD on the other hand is just an extension of the Marvel cinematic universe (despite having been prominent in the comics), and the only character that was pretty much known from the Avengers (a couple years back) in the general non-comic reading public was Coulson.
Just my opinions.
Totally agree about Red being interesting enough to carry on the show without a direct connection to Liz. I love James Spader so I'd watch him read the phone book :-)
ReplyDeleteI accept your counter point! I didn't realize that they were two weeks ahead of The Originals. That does make a difference as I also think that Gotham will start high and then settle lower - just like AoS. I like your optimism and I hope this show does well on Mondays...never got into TVD but with the planned cross overs this season, I'm hoping this will be able to hold better than the Monday shows last season (however, I place a fair amount of blame on the CW's marketing department for the failure of Star-Crossed).
ReplyDeleteI haven't watched DWTS since I stopped ballroom dancing myself and I never got into The Voice so I will give JtV a try - who knows, could be quirky enough to really catch on if the word of mouth is good!
Hello! Ah, I'm crap at predicting things, but eh, I'll look at the link anyway and see if I can at least give it some sort of attempt :p.
ReplyDeleteAhaha, this is true-I have...not heard good things about "Under the Dome", and "The Following"-I've come across a few fans, but yeah, it has more than its share of mockers, too. After all, the whole joke with "Sleepy Hollow" is that it was originally presumed to be one of those kinds of shows that everyone laughs at...only for it to wind up being one of the biggest shows of last season! So I definitely think the overall good buzz, likeability of the cast (just put Tom and Nicole on as many TV screens as one can manage-they'll get people interested all on their own :D), and the repeats (and perhaps a few ads here and there for when the DVD is released) is a good start. It certainly can't hurt, right? And then of course, if the season itself winds up being as great as the first one was, that'll make it all the better (for a similar example-I just started hearing about "Arrow" this season-they became a sleeper hit of their own accord, too). And yes, "Gotham" could be a big boost as well-I'm a little intrigued about that series, so I may give it a look when it debuts.
Good point about "Castle", too. Fans stomp their feet and say they won't be back next season, but you know that's an empty threat for most of them. I think the show will survive this hit, too, but still, watching the wank and grumbling that might ensue from the sidelines will be a little amusing (though I'll feel for fans who still love the show-I'm all for legit criticism of a show, but I also know what it's like when all you want to do is go online and gush about an episode only to run into negativity everywhere you turn, too). So hopefully the show and the fans can have a happy time of it next season.
Oh, the futile fight to explain the meanings behind the numbers to fans who only want to belive :))
ReplyDeleteGreat compilation, it was very interesting (the Tuesday one as well btw.) I don't predict because in the past there were several occasions when shows started to rise or slide without any obvious reason.
Monday will be light for me, Sleepy Hollow from last season and I will try Gotham as well because of the cast. As Castle had gone from my list with last season (not just because of the finale but because of the whole season), I will probably use this extra hour to catch up with those shows I wanted to watch but hadn't time.
Scorpion - I don't know. Saw the teaser and it doesn't really amped up my enthusiasm. It doesn't mean however that it can't be successful.
No doubt, the weaker early episodes hurt AoS and made a lot of viewers bail - I actually almost stopped watching around the exact same point that you did (but I'm really glad I didn't, it did indeed get WAY better going into the second half of the season). But given all of the complaints I keep seeing on Facebook, YouTube and such along the lines of "Who cares about these boring characters, I want to see Captain America and Iron Man!", I really think a lot of people either don't get that it's not an Avengers show, or don't wish to watch a show that isn't.
ReplyDeleteI'm worried Gotham will suffer from the same problem, even though it's certainly made clear that it isn't a Batman show in the promotion, as you noted. A lot of folks still won't care, probably because they're not even fans of the comics who realize how important Gotham and Gordon are to the mythos, but fans of the movies who only care about the action and cool gadgets.
I suspect my predictions would be rubbish, since I'm never good at predicting ratings, or renewals/cancellations. :)
ReplyDeleteAnd yeah, I guess as long Gotham bottoms out at an acceptable number, it doesn't matter if it loses a huge chunk of the premiere audience. With the way things were going for Fox last spring, it's not going to take mind-blowing ratings for this show to be considered a success.
I don't have a Google account, at the moment. Perhaps i sign up for one, before the end of the week. Though i suck at guessing 18-49 ratings, and thought that Revolution, Almost Human, and Believe, would of gotten another chance.
ReplyDeleteI think most of those people are trolls or people who still don't understand (despite the fact the writers/actors have said it a million times) this isn't Avengers the tv show.
ReplyDeleteI get what you said about Gotham and I agree that some people are going to complain about this not being a Batman show but at least FOX is doing a good job with the promotion so I hope most people realize they aren't going to see Batman. Another thing that is a huge advantage for this show is that Batman has the most popular rogue gallery so at least I can see people being curious about the villain's origins.
The GPD characters will work if they are written well and the show doesn't become too procedural.
Sorry for the late comment, but I needed some time to read it all and to make my own predictions.
ReplyDeleteGreat article! Always nice to read these ratings post. I will have a close look at the ratings come September. Both looking forward to seeing them and dreading them at the same time.
Anyway, the only fall Monday show I predict will be canceled is Jane the Virgin. While it's difficult to predict the ratings for an entire season as they are likely to vary, here are my guesses:
Gotham: Premieres to 2.6+, average 2.3
Sleepy Hollow: Premiere 2.4+, average of 2.1
2 Broke Girls: Will be down. Premiere 2.2+, average of 1.9
Mom: Will greatly benefit form TBBT lead-in. Given that they are both Chuck Lorre shows, I think some TBBT audience will stick with it after it moved back to Thursday. Premiere 3.0+, average of 2.1.
Scorpion: Will premiere big (3.0+) due to TBBT lead-in. Likely to do great in the first six weeks, then will settle somewhere around 2.3.
NCIS: Los Angeles: Will be down, of course. Premieres to 2.1+, average of 1.8.
Castle: Increased competition and an apparently despised finale won't help. Premieres to 2.0+, average of 1.7.
The Blacklist: Will continue to do great here and will win its time-slot repeatedly. When it moves to Thursday, it will likely drop some but nothing to worry about. Premieres to 2.5+, average of 2.2
The Originals: Will be down. I say the premiere will be around 0.6-0.7 and the average will be 0.6 (although this could be 0.64 or 0.55, I'm leaning towards 0.62).
Jane the Virgin: Likely to do tank. Premiere 0.4-0.5, average of 0.4 (leaning towards 0.37).
Hey there. Thanks for taking the time to read and for those kind words! Predicting, especially for the whole season, is indeed very challenging but I think that's a pretty big part of it.
ReplyDeleteSleepy Hollow and Gotham are great picks if I dare to say! I am also undecided about Scorpion, both on a personal level of whether I will watch it or not, and on a ratings' level. This fall certainly ought to be interesting ;)
Yep, I think those two weeks will help The Originals quite a lot. I would have delayed it even an extra week if I was the CW. By the way, I also agree with you that a huge reason for Star-Crossed to have bombed was the marketing, starting with the name. I think the show was great.
ReplyDeleteI am looking forward to those predictions then ;)
ReplyDeleteRegarding Under the Dome and The Following, especially The Following which is one of my favorites, so I never quite got all the hate they got, but well, that's how it goes I guess :P Sleepy Hollow, like we both agree on, has nothing of sorts, so hopefully it results in better ratings for Season 2!
Will be looking forward to it ;)
ReplyDeleteWow those reviews really made me look forward to both Gotham and Scorpion even more. I think I will really end up sampling Scorpion, at least the pilot. Having heard so much good stuff about it I don't see how I can avoid it!
ReplyDeleteFair enough! I will be looking forward to your comments then ;)
ReplyDeleteFair enough then, I will be looking forward to your comments then ;)
ReplyDeleteAhah some shows do surprise us like that! I never though I would like a show like Reign for instance and I adore it now. Sleepy Hollow wasn't also on my to-watch list and I ended up liking it as well. That's just the way it goes every year ahah.
Hey there! Thank you very much for reading up and for the kind words, I am glad you enjoyed it! Thanks also for the participation and for the predictions for each show, it's quite enjoyable to me!
ReplyDeleteI think most of our predictions are pretty much in line. The main differences seem to be that that you are more optimistic about Scorpion and Jane the Virgin (even if we both still agree on the end result for Jane the Virgin). Scorpion is such a hard one because I could see it being the next POI as easily as I could see it being the next Intelligence, so it's a tough nut to crack! And also what happens to LA will also end up being influenced by it a lot, so it's also hard.
I wasn't even going to give Star-Crossed a try because all the marketing spun it as a Romeo and Juliet sort of thing. Wasn't until I saw people posting on here that the romance wasn't all that much that I decided to check it out. Unfortunately, the show was already in trouble by then! Sadly, I think JtV may suffer the same fate - most of my friends won't be watching because they think the name is stupid and therefore the show can't possibly be any better. I guess after Star-Crossed, I'm willing to give it the benefit of the doubt and try at least the first three episodes out.
ReplyDeleteMaybe it's just wishful thinking about Scorpion. I have seen the pilot and am very much looking forward to the show. I know you're still doubting but the pilot has won me over, the promos and show info didn't do much for me. But yeah, ratings-wise the show might go either way and it will depend how the show does after TBBT moves back to Thursday.
ReplyDeleteI think Jane the Virgin will be this year's Star-Crossed. It will premiere to something like a 0.4 or perhaps even a 0.5, then consistently get either a 0.3 or a 0.4 in the ratings.
I think of Jane more of this year's Emily Owens than Star-Crossed but that's probably because of the content, Star Crossed is a fair comparison sa well.
ReplyDeleteAs for Scorpion, I will try it out, I can't avoid it now after so many people say so much good stuff about it. I am kind of rooting for the show ratings wise for some reason too.
Hello there. Thank you for reading.
ReplyDeleteOf course that's not what I was saying, it's insulting that you would even think so and even dumb to be honest. If you cared to ask, I would have explained to you that DWTS and The Voice are high rated shows that are very FEMALE skewing meaning that there is more potential to find a male skewing show in the hour than a female skewing show. Now, obviously, to say that a show skews male or female only means that more than 50% of the show's audience is male or female, not that there aren't others watching.
So, "Ugh" back at you. ;)
Regarding NCIS:LA, I get the impression that CBS has thrown it under the bus. It's in a tougher time slot against stronger competition, with no established lead-in and so far no publicity or promotion behind it. Plus which, it's coming off a rather weak season (according to many of the fan sites, YMMV).
ReplyDeleteI vaguely recall hearing that the original cast had all signed for 6 seasons. If true, that would make this the year when the network has to re-sign almost everyone. Could it be that CBS wants the ratings to decline so as to be in a stronger negotiating position with the cast (and crew), while at the same time hoping to get similar ratings with a new and largely unknown cast on NICS:NOLA ? Are they that diabolical? ;-)
BBT,2Broke Girls,Originals,Jane the Virgin
ReplyDeleteI wish Gotham was more procedural than it is, because FOX needs something to replace Bones. But apparently it is heavily serialized. So I can see it burning off quickly and lasting 2 seasons max.
ReplyDelete.
I understand your concern with Sleepy Hollow, but I see its audience being more loyal than Following and UTD. FOX had a fairly crazy schedule for a 13 episode season and its audience held on pretty well. High 2's for premiere with a bunch of 2.1-2.2 near the end.
Monday is going to be the place for TV watching. As really TV will be eyed on Mondays more and more. Like it was in the 1990's with Thursdays and Friends and Fraser.
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