First and foremost, I would like to thank everyone who has been participating so far, both through comments and by submitting their own predictions! I am finding it really enjoyable to compare our predictions, so I encourage everyone who is reading and commenting to submit their own predictions as well! Also, I am doing my best to answer everyone that cares enough to leave a comment and I will eventually get there, I apologize if it's taking longer than expected!
Anyway, back to business! For those of you that are new to the drill, I welcome you to the Fall TV Preview initiative, in which we try to see which one of us is best with the crystal ball in previewing the rating for our favorite shows in the fall! I share my predictions with some analysis and then I invite you to submit your own! Hopefully, at the end of the season, we can all have fun comparing the results!
Previous posts (The prediction forms will be open until the week before the start of the official season which is when some of the stuff starts to premiere, so feel free to go back and submit your predictions):
- Monday Shows
- Tuesday Shows
Wednesdays
Arrow (0.92 Last Year)
Lead-in: Local Programming
Lead-out: The 100
Episode Order: 22-24 episodes
Competition: The Middle & The Goldbergs, Hell's Kitchen/American Idol, Survivor, The Mysteries of Laura
The Pros
• Competition probably gets easier for Arrow with Revolution out of the slot since this show shared more audience with it than with The Mysteries of Laura
• The Flash might bring enough attention do the CW and the DC Comics shows in general that it gives Arrow a boost of its own in the process, particularly through crossovers.
• The 100 should be a more competent lead-out to have than The Tomorrow People was a year ago.
• Despite a worrisome spring, Arrow did manage to end up even year to year. That’s very promising!
The Cons
• Like fellow CW-hit shows The Originals and The Vampire Diaries, Arrow had some very concerning spring drops going on, despite the show firing up in all cylinders creatively speaking. Will it really be able to come back from that?
• Despite what I thought was a mind blowing Season 2, the show is considerably more serialized nowadays than it was back in Season 1, so potential for casual viewing is more limited now.
The Verdict: As concerning as those spring drops were, the finale was even year to year, which is promising, so I am not ready to read that much into them, especially since they affected basically the entire CW. I also genuinely think all the attention that Flash is getting might end up being positive for Arrow as well, so I am cautiously optimistic about this season simply taking a drop on par with overall broadcast.
The Guess: 0.85 (-7%)
Potential for Major Deviation: Low
The 100 (0.61 Last Year)
Lead-in: Arrow
Lead-out: Local Programming
Episode Order: 16 episodes
Competition:Modern Family & Black-ish, Law and Order: SVU, Criminal Minds, Red Band Society/American Idol
The Pros
• Getting to air in the fall/winter (aka the highest viewed portion of the season) instead of late spring/ summer (aka the lowest viewed portion of the season) is already a major advantage.
• The 100 only has 13 episodes in the can and those were pretty well received critically wise so it make it the perfect candidate for a “catch up during summer” type of show that receives a boost in early season 2.
• Unlike Season 1, Season 2 should get to air the entire order out of Arrow originals, which by the way, should also be significantly higher during fall than it was during spring.
The Cons
• The 100 will miss out the opening weeks of the CW’s fall which would be when it had the most potential to pull the higher ratings. That may not do its momentum any favors.
• Season 1 premiered and aired at a time in which The 100 had the entire CW’s promotional machine behind it, even during the summer episodes in which it was basically the only thing left for the CW to promote. No such luck this time as The Flash gets all the CW’s attention.
• Premiering so close to the World Series baseball on FOX, which for the last two years has showed to be very much able to put a serious dent on CW’s male leaning Wednesday, will do The 100’s no favors.
The Verdict: I would feel much better about this if The 100 was premiering right after Arrow’s premiere and if it could be spared from the World Series massacre. This being said, changing the airing portion of the season in such a positive way like it’s doing is simply too much of a big advantage for it not to work. Besides, it’s not like the Season 1 results had any worrisome trend. I give it a very good shot at improving its average and the slot for the CW, which should be enough for another round.
The Guess: 0.73 (+20%)
Potential for Major Deviation: Average
Red Band Society (New Show)
Lead-in: Hell's Kitchen
Lead-out: Local Programming
Episode Order: 13 (potentially 22-24) episodes
Competition: Modern Family & Black-ish, Criminal Minds, Law and Order: SVU, The 100
The Pros
• Red Band Society may be the first legitimate teen show to air on a big four network ever since Glee back in the day and it actually brings in something new to the genre with the medical aspect of it all.
• Octavia Spencer is a pretty big household name!
• FOX seems invested enough in this show for it not to sound like a timeslot filler type of player.
• The drama competition on the slot, although competent, has a very different tone and likely appeals much more to the A35-49 audience than to the A18-34 audience that FOX is going for here.
The Cons
• Criminal Minds and SVU may not be that big of a problem as a competition, but the same cannot be said about a little show called Modern Family which is also known for its strength in A18-34.
• Although the show has big names attached to it, plenty of recent examples have shown that big names don’t necessarily translate into success.
• Hell’s Kitchen didn’t have a particularly healthy summer run and the fact that it will be asked to come back so soon and has to go up against Survivor could mean that its lead-in potential is severely limited, which in turn could harm Red Band Society.
The Verdict: I do know what to think here. At all. I think the lead-in will be quite “meh” and the competition will be intense to some degree but not something that couldn’t be worked around. It’s also pretty tough to actually come with a number because I have no idea if this thing will actually air the entire year or just for the fall, which would obviously inflate its numbers. It could flop right out of the gate as easily as it could be a big hit – no big surprises in either direction for me, even though if I had to guess I would say it has more downside than upside potential. I am going middle direction and say that the show gets a decent pre-season sampling and hangs in there during fall with enough of a loyal loving audience with plenty of those A18-34 that FOX loves so much. It likely doesn’t get an episode extension because Idol takes over at midseason and it doesn’t do enough to warrant a timeslot change but could still be in legitimate conversation at season’s end.
The Guess: 1.50
Potential for Major Deviation: High, like through the roof High! In case I haven’t said it enough… A LOT!
The Middle (2.06 Last Year)
Lead-in: Local Programming
Lead-out: The Goldbergs
Episode Order: 22-24 episodes
Competition: Survivor, Hell's Kitchen/American Idol, The Mysteries of Laura, Arrow
The Pros
• The Goldbergs may be the best pairing The Middle has ever had since Suburgatory’s first season, so The Middle can pick up some extra steam from the positive pairing!
• The Middle’s continued syndication exposure may help a bit more this year. After all, even though the show was down to some degree during fall, its spring trend was much better and could mean that syndication is starting to kick in.
• ABC’s comedy repeats this summer have been some of the best they’ve had, which could help out the entire block come fall!
• The hour continues to be an easy one competition wise, perhaps even easier than last year!
The Cons
• I’ve got nothing
The Verdict: As you can probably guess by my pros and cons sections, I find it pretty hard to come up with reasons why The Middle shouldn’t have a great season, unless something strange happens and NBC suddenly gets its act together here with some spectacular midseason replacement comedies or something like that. I think ABC Wednesdays could be headed for their best year in a while and The Middle should be all in on it.
The Guess: Practically even year to year at a 1.95 (-5%)
Potential for Major Deviation: Low
The Goldbergs (1.68 Last Year)
Lead-in: The Middle
Lead-out: Modern Family
Episode Order: 22-24 episodes
Competition: Survivor, Hell's Kitchen/American Idol, The Mysteries of Laura, Arrow
The Pros
• Shield really wasn’t a good lead-in for this show, seeing how it would practically not fluctuate regardless of whether or not Shield was in originals last season. The Middle, on the other hand, could very well be the perfect companion show for this family comedy.
• One thing that went a bit undocumented last year was how much New Girl and The Goldbergs were hurting each other at the end of last season, seeing how they would each spike when not facing one another. Now the only comedy in the half hour (instead of facing both New Girl and About a Boy), The Goldbergs faces much more favorable competition.
• Having Modern Family, aka’s broadcast number two show, as a lead-out has never hurt anyone.
• The repeats this summer have performed quite admirably, with the show regularly tying or even bating it’s The Middle lead-in. That shows promise!
The Cons
• Again, nothing really comes to mind.
The Verdict: With the risk of repeating myself, again I find it hard not to be optimistic here. I know some people disagree but I am absolutely convinced that this is a clear timeslot upgrade so everything points towards the show improving. Compatibility, lead-in, competition and rerun dynamics are all on the show’s side and one may argue that even critical backing grew throughout the season. I say it manages to go up.
The Guess: 1.85 (+10%)
Potential for Major Deviation: Average
Modern Family (3.54 Last Year)
Lead-in: The Goldbergs
Lead-out: Black-ish
Episode Order: 22-24 episodes
Competition: Criminal Minds, Law and Order: SVU, Red Band Society/American Idol, The 100
The Pros
• Like fellow Wednesday comedy The Middle, Modern Family had a much better trend during the second half of the season than it had during fall. That means that syndication exposure may had just started to kick in and that could continue in the fall!
• This is a repeat of The Middle, but it’s still true: ABC’s comedy repeats this summer have been some of the best they’ve had, which could help out the entire block come fall!
• Modern Family peaked in the year in which it had the best 8h30 occupant yet, which was Suburgatory Season 1. Coincidence? If The Goldbergs can live up to its potential and improve that 8h30 half hour, Modern Family may be helped out in the process as well!
• There is no formidable competition in the hour for Modern Family to go against, as Criminal Minds and Idol continue to trend downwards and Red Band Society really shouldn’t be considerably stronger than X-Factor, especially in opening weeks.
The Cons
• Modern Family certainly has the looks of a show that has peaked already. Even if the spring trend was better than the fall one, it still went -16% for the season as a whole, after a season of another -16%! It’s tough to revert that.
• Modern Family has had so many eyeballs already during its first run that it’s not like syndication can meaningfully get new viewers to sample it. Those who wanted to try it out have already done so.
The Verdict: Maybe I am just biased by the performance of summer repeats and the positive momentum that seemed to exist towards the end of the season but I really believe ABC Wednesdays will have a (majorly) positive year. Still, I do think there is something to be said about Modern Family having peaked already. I think the positive momentum of the block and the better lead-in will help, but not exactly to the same extent as The Middle.
The Guess: It’s even year to year after accounting for the general decline. A 3.18 (-10%)
Potential for Major Deviation: Average
Black-ish (New Show)
Lead-in: Modern Family
Lead-out: Nashville
Episode Order: 13 (potentially 22-24) episodes
Competition: Criminal Minds, Law and Order: SVU, Red Band Society/American Idol, The 100
The Pros
• Modern Family as a lead-in aka, the best gift ABC can give a comedy.
• No comedy competition and no major competition anyway.
• It’s finally a family comedy being placed after Modern Family in the fall like people were asking for all along, so maybe it’s the best MF lead-out poised to take advantage of the lead-in.
• ABC’s promotional muscle seems invested in this show.
The Cons
• Sure being after Modern Family seems to be a gift but it hasn’t really helped out Cougar Town, Happy Endings, Mr. Sunshine, Apartment 23, Suburgatory, How to Live with Your Parents, Super Fun Night and Mixology… Jeez, isn’t that a long enough list to be a coincidence?
• The content of the show seems to be the type that requires a flawless execution for it to work or it runs the risk of being a parody of itself easily.
• Critics and reviewers aren’t easily in love with this show.
The Verdict: I am very conflicted here. On the one hand, in theory, this seems to be the perfect fit with Modern Family that we were asking ABC for so long now. On the other hand, there is something about this show that seems fishy to me. Like I was saying, it is the type of show that really requires a flawless execution for it to work or it will soon turn into a parody of itself. The fact that people that have watched it don’t seem quite impressed with it leads me to believe that the parody thing could be happening. So does an exceptional timeslot (including compatibility) wins out over a poorly executed show?
The Guess: I am sorry ABC, but I don’t think it does. I think you have the right idea for once, but the wrong show. Almost all of post MF lead outs have hanged around the 55% retention mark. I haven’t looked it exhaustively but I think How to Live was the best one at 61% (yep, a family comedy). I give this one a fair shot at having the same retention but it’s still not what we would call a success. A 1.94
Potential for Major Deviation: Average
Nashville (1.47 Last Year)
Lead-in: Black-ish
Lead-out: Local Programming
Episode Order: 22 episodes
Competition: Chicago PD, Stalker, American Horror Story/The Americans
The Pros
• Nashville really deserved more credit than it got last year for the horrible lead-ins it had to endure. Both Super Fun Night and Mixology were not only low rated but also extremely incompatible. That means whatever audience it had was its own. With Blackish helping out, it could bring additional eyeballs to check out the show.
The Cons
• This show was pretty much a bubble renewal until the very last end for ABC and there is a reason for it, which was the fact that the numbers it finished the season with were downright scary. It could likely continue this year. Besides, how many serialized shows really pick up more viewers as they age?
• Last year, Nashville at least the benefit of a non existent NBC when Ironside was quickly pulled. No such luck this year as Chicago PD is a strong player from the get go.
• Stalker may very well also prove to be a stronger option than CSI was.
The Verdict: I happen to strongly support the idea that Nashville was more hurt last year by the lead-in than we give it credit for. However, that can only explain part of what was a pretty terrible season for this show. Even if it lucks out and Blackish is indeed a strong lead-in, the stronger competition should cancel that out. I am not a buyer here.
The Guess: 1.15 (-22%)
Potential for Major Deviation: Low
The Mysteries of Laura (New Show)
Lead-in: Local Programming
Lead-out: Law and Order: SVU
Episode Order: 13 (potentially 22-24) episodes
Competition: The Middle & The Goldbergs, Hell's Kitchen/American Idol, Survivor, Arrow
The Pros
• This show could have some very broad appeal and attract a bunch of very different audiences since it is a procedural with strong character driven storylines as well.
• The hour is not very competitive, especially for a drama which faces literally no competition from the other big 3, which means there is potential for this type of counter programming.
• A procedural like this should actually be more compatible with the Dick Wolf shows than something like Revolution so chances are it fits better on NBC’s Wednesday lineup.
• The pilot airing after America’s Got Talent should guarantee some amount of initial sampling!
The Cons
• Critics and reviewers are universally detesting this show. Sure, some shows break those odds and go on to live many years, but it’s never a good sign.
• A show that attempts to have a lot of broad appeal may also simply not appeal to anyone in the end due to the different genres it mixes up.
• Self-starting a night usually requires a fair amount of buzz for a new show and Laura is not exactly bathing in buzz..
The Verdict: Not a buyer at all. I know plenty of shows have beaten up these kind of odds and critical rejection in the past but I don’t think Laura will be one of those cases. I think it’s as simple as it looks and it will just perform badly and be a prime candidate for one of the first cancellations of the season. I see an Ironside type of disaster waiting to happen and it will probably be pulled as fast as that show was.
The Guess: 1.07
Potential for Major Deviation: Average
Law and Order: SVU (1.80 Last Year)
Lead-in:The Mysteries of Laura
Lead-out: Chicago P.D.
Episode Order: 22-24 episodes
Competition: Criminal Minds, Modern Family & Black-ish, Red Band Society, The 100
The Pros
• After 8 straight years of declines, out of the blue SVU was up in raw numbers by 4% last year. That’s an astonishing feat and it could continue this year shooting up SVU’s numbers!
• Chicago PD as a lead-out is a better situation for SVU than Ironside/repeats that it had last fall before Chicago PD came along at midseason.
The Cons
• SVU did have an amazing season and based on its own merits but a large part of that was because it could create a particular storyline that attracted a lot of eyeballs for those particular episodes. Those hid some pretty bad results along the way, including some 1.4s. With that storyline out of the way, SVU could easily give back last year’s gains and then som.
• Last year, it was the first time that NBC got its act together to some extent during the 8pm hour. Even if Revolution did dip a bit too much in the Spring, it was still the best occupant they’ve had in there for quite some time and the best lead-in SVU has had in recent years. No such luck with Laura, which is yet another bomb in the making.
The Verdict: Like I was saying, I think last year the show grew on its own merits so it deserves a lot of credit for that. However, I thought the trend was too unstable and didn’t show any promise in terms of long term sustainability. I also think that indeed Revolution helped quite a bit and having a flop as a lead-in will be a considerable downgrade. So I think SVU kind of gives back last year’s gains to end up where it would have been if it wasn’t for last year’s overachievement.
The Guess: 1.54 (-14%)
Potential for Major Deviation: Average
Chicago P.D. (1.66 Last Year)
Lead-in: Law and Order SVU
Lead-out: Local Programming
Episode Order: 22-24 episodes
Competition:Stalker, Nashville and American Horror Story/The Americans
The Pros
• Getting to air in the fall, when viewing levels are its peak, is already a big advantage for this show which was banned to winter/spring last year.
• The show didn’t really fall much from its premiere and was pretty stable around the same level for the remainder of the season, including the lower viewed Spring, which is a good sign.
• Crossovers really seemed to have the power to prop up this show last year. As they continue this year, the show is able to continue to build its audience.
The Cons
• Last year, the show benefited from an overachieving SVU. As that show falls back to earth this year, so does Chicago PD.
• The fact that NBC hasn’t found a spot in its summer schedule to rerun this still very new and procedural-like show is not a good sign for it. Could be an out of sight out of mind type of attitude for this show's audience.
• Stalker likely ends up being tougher competition than CSI was.
The Verdict: I think this show will be okay. Unlike SVU’s ratings which were a bit all over the place last season, this one was stable enough for most of its run. It probably already shared a lot of audience with CSI so even if Stalker does a bit better, I don’t think that will be a major concern for Chicago PD. I don’t see it exploding in the ratings, but I don’t see it falling either, especially since airing in the fall really is a big advantage.
The Guess: 1.57 (-5%)
Potential for Major Deviation: Low
Criminal Minds (2.49 Last Year)
Lead-in:Survivor
Lead-out:Stalker
Episode Order: 22-24 episodes
Competition: Law and Order SVU, Modern Family & Black-ish, Red Band Society/American Idol, The 100
The Pros
• Stalker reinvigorates the night and Criminal Minds is able to benefit from the pairing with this potentially high rated and extremely compatible show!
• Jennifer Love Hewitt is a HUGE name for CBS households. With her joining the show, Criminal Minds can gain some extra momentum from people that don’t normally tune in into show!
The Cons
• Criminal Minds went from 4 seasons of being practically even to have ~15% downturns two seasons in a row! That’a worrisome trend and a tough one to come back from.
The Verdict: I don’t really have much to say here. I think the show is bound for some evening out after two consecutive fast declining years and having a big CBS star joining the cast at the same time that it’s paired up with a hot lead-out may be the time for that. I think it’s able to considerably slow down the decline and manages to do a bit better than the overall decline.
The Guess: 2.29 (-8%)
Potential for Major Deviation: Low
Stalker (New Show)
Lead-in: Criminal Minds
Lead-out: Local Programming
Episode Order: 13 (potentially 22-24) episodes
Competition: Chicago PD, Nashville and American Horror Story/The Americans
The Pros
• Dylan McDermott and Maggie Q are big stars that can attract a crowd!
• Kevin Williamson really hasn’t done any wrong yet with his shows, at least not in their first seasons, so why should Stalker be any different?
• Criminal Minds is not only a very competent lead-in, but also creates one of the most compatible and natural pairings in broadcast television! Stalker should be able to benefit a ton from the lead-in.
• The timeslot has no prohibitive competition at all, as Nashville is a low rated soap and Chicago PD is only a modest player for NBC.
The Cons
• The show’s stars may be big names but their last projects weren’t exactly rating hits (cough Nikita cough Hostages).
• The show has one of the darkest subject matters and tone I remember seeing since, well, Criminal Minds. That’s a natural limitation to a lot of people and it may be that a number of others end up finding a procedural like this too much to stomach on a weekly basis.
The Verdict: Like NCIS: New Orleans, this also appears to be one of those shows that has everything going for it from the get go so it’s obviously pretty hard to imagine it not working. I think it starts out big and I don’t even put it past it closing in on Criminal Minds for the premiere and then falls from there once initial curiosity dies down but still settles at a pretty decent level to be a win for CBS and probably a better option than what CSI would have done here one more year.
The Guess: 1.89
Potential for Major Deviation: Average
Now it's time for you to make your predictions! Click HERE to submit your predictions!
What did you think of these predictions? Do you agree with my thoughts? Share your predictions and thoughts below on the comment sections!
Also, what are your viewing plans for Wednesdays during this fall? Personally it's all about the CW duo to me since both Arrow and The 100 are among my top favorite shows. Additionally, I will also be sampling Red Band Society in which I am very interested and I will continue watching Modern Family! On the cable reigns, which we don't cover here, I will also try out the new season of American Horror Story. What about you? What will you be watching?
Thank you for reading and participating ;) I will be back tomorrow with the Thursday ones, at the end of the day!
Although I appreciate the offer to do predictions, I don't have a feel for so many shows. So I'll continue to just put my thoughts on certain shows as they pop up. Arrow was really hitting a creative stride last year. I hope good word of mouth helps keep the ratings up. The 100 was likewise a pretty quality show, IMHO. For a teen oriented show on the CW it dealt with some complex moral issues. I feel good about both shows, especially since I don't think the competition appeals to the same audiences.
ReplyDeleteThe Red Band Society will either be a big hit or a big miss. Fox needs a big hit and that may be it's biggest Con, the fact that Fox is losing steam. RBS looks like it will be well written and interesting. I just don't know how audiences will respond to a lot of sick kids. I'm going to watch, but I can see people saying they don't want to watch a sad show.
As I said in a different article, I don't really watch comedies so I have zero feelings about the ABC comedy line up. Mysteries of Laura sounds atrocious. The previews don't catch me and give me no reason to even give it a try. Stalker doesn't catch me either, but then I watched one episode of The Following and decided it wasn't my thing. Kevin Williamson does make shows that are well written and well done Dawson's Creek still holds up and Vampire Diaries was at its best when he was part of it. So he could work his magic here. OTOH, he was also the head of Secret Circle, which had a big cult following, but fell in the ratings during its first season.
I watch Criminal Minds in reruns and occasionally in new episodes. It's too icky for me in general, but it's been a hit for years, so I'm obviously representative. I never got into Chicago PD so I have no personal feeling. It seemed to do well last year and Dick Wolfe has a feeling for what works, and Lord Knows he knows how to keep a franchise going, so it will probably be just fine. If it does we may well see Chicago SWAT or Chicago District Attorneys next season. The man knows how to churn them out and keep people watching.
I'd heard that the ratings for "Criminal Minds" this past season were pretty strong, which is good, if that's the case, 'cause yeah, like you said, some of the changes in recent seasons, with fan favorite characters coming and going, no doubt hurt them a little here and there. The fans are VERY passionate about the characters and the team dynamics on this show (and for good reason-I tend to believe that's the show's biggest selling point)!
ReplyDeleteCourse, it's also going into its tenth season, and any show that's been on for a number of years will fluctuate ratings-wise based on that fact alone, too. But hopefully, season 10 will be very strong and full of interesting stories, and that can help the show keep a stable footing. I'm also very curious to see how Jennifer Love Hewitt will fit into the team-right now a lot of fans seem rather divided about her, but I'm going to remain optimistic about her chances (and if things don't work with her, eh, well, there's six other well-known and loved characters to focus on). I don't know that she'll have as big an impact on the ratings either way as some presume, though...but then again, I'm crap with predictions, so who knows? I just know for certain that I personally am looking forward to the show returning.
I totally understand why the powers that be at CBS put "Stalker" next to "Criminal Minds" on a "similar topics" level, but yeah, that much dark content for two hours at night? Not sure how that'll go over. That'll be interesting to observe. Also, I need to make note of a few of the new shows coming up, try and remember to catch some of them when possible. I'm always up for discovering a new series!
Wow, ok I have to get used to this new upgrage for the site. Lol
ReplyDeleteCan't wait for Stalker. Love Maggie Q and have had sever Nikita withdrawals since it ended. I also just did the Warner Bros. Studios Deluxe VIP tour last week and went by a few trailers in the lot for Stalker (and then came across Karen Gillan getting into van headed for the Selfie set).
ReplyDeleteI still need to finish watching The 100 but I'm glad it got chosen for a second season instead of Starcrossed. Unsure how it will fair by the end of its second season though.There seems to be a few CW shows that could very well be better received by the end of the television season. What it has going for it from my view is that the other shows are pretty much procedural or comedy so someone looking for something speculative will have to settle for the 100 (unless they have cable).
(Don't really take my word for it though since I'm Australian and only think about the show (writing, cast, story, etc.) themselves and not viewer factors. Oh well.)
YES! I'm so glad you didn't find any cons for my favorite comedy.. ( The Middle )
ReplyDeleteMy Wednesday schedule this fall: Arrow, Legends/ The 100, American Horror Story.
ReplyDeleteArrow: I believe will be fine, and is popular for a CW show. There is a lot of buzz surrounding The Flash, and that can only help it. The Flash is a companion show to Arrow, with crossovers planned.
The 100: It did fine for a CW show last season. I predict a third season at least.
The Mysteries of Laura: I believe this would have a better chance, if it was on USA or Lifetime. As it stands now, i believe it will fail.
Chicago PD & Criminal Minds: They are strong enough, to each get another season.
Law and Order: SVU: I dropped this series early last season, good riddance.
Stalker: There seems to be a lot of positive buzz, surrounding this new series. If it is half as good as it seems, it will be around for a few seasons at least. The trailers look amazing to me. And though my Wednesday is booked, i may watch it on demand on Thursdays.
American Horror Story: I believe it will do well this season. But may be in trouble next season, with Jessica Lange's announced retirement. Though it does have a nice stable, of actors and actresses to fill the void.
I no long watch sitcoms, so i can't really judge them. As for Nashville, i haven't a clue. Dallas is my only soap. Most reality series seem to do well enough, to justify renewal. They are usually a lot cheaper to make than dramas. I haven't watched any of these. Big Brother, is my only REAL reality show, unless you count shows like Kingdom of the Apes, Through the Wormhole with Morgan Freeeman, Futurescape, River Monsters, Survivorman, and Apocalypse: WWI.
Goldbergs will be a huge hit for ABC, also because moving it in the Wedn. comedy block is the only smart move made by mr Paul Lee in years. I hope The Middle wille remain above a 2.0 level.
ReplyDeleteStalker and Laura will be almost certainly DOA (maybe Stalker will benefit at least in the beginning from its strong lead-in).
Red Band Society could go either way.
I hope you are right and The 100 rises! I would love if that show becomes a bigger hit with each season ala GoT or The Walking Dead!
ReplyDeleteI hope The 100 rises because I want the show to have third season. Also I think Arrow will benefit from The Flash's popularity.
ReplyDeleteStalker looks interesting and it has a compatible lead in. I don't watch anything on CBS but I will wait until some episodes air so I can know if it's another generic boring procedural.
About American Horror Story I don't know....last season was awful but it brought some Glee fans who prefer the comedy and cheesy aspects of the show instead of the horror. I think next season could break the show if Ryan Murphy keeps screwing up.
Lot of new shows to look forward to this year. The Flash is a must watch for me and Stalker looks really interesting. I have a feeling Arrow will do well this season if they keep romance on the down low. After all Ra's Al Ghul is coming.
ReplyDeleteI think criminal minds should wrap up this season. Its getting repetitive.
Nice wrap up! I forgot to comment this yesterday when I read it!
ReplyDeleteMy night will be CW-action oriented Arrow, The100 and Stalker/AHS
Modern family in semi live-DVR!
Think Arrow will do a bit better and not slip! With all the Flash buzz Arrow is getting featured as well and with upcoming cross overs both shows will benefit. Along them The100 will get a rating boost as well.
I hope Stalker will be a good show and that the ratings will follow! Kevin knows how to make a show interesting but I hope there will be someone to keep him grounded.
I think Arrow will do far better this season provided the learned their lesson from last — focus on the core Team Arrow of Oliver, Felicity (BACKSTORY) and Diggle continue to build Roy, and show Thea's development while letting Malcolm do his thing.
ReplyDeleteThe back half of S2 they were all over the place with far too much happening and had Sara (who I do like on a part time basis) front and center while key characters and their development were shoved aside.
If they can avoid the mistakes of S2b then they should be set!
Made my comments on Monday and Tuesday shows, now time for Wednesday. The fall Wednesday shows I predict will be canceled are Red Band Society, Black-ish and The Mysteries of Laura. Here are my predictions as to the demos:
ReplyDeleteArrow: Premiere to 0.9+, with an average of 0.8 (could be a 0.75 or a 0.84, I'm leaning towards a 0.83)
The 100: Please let it rise! I would very much like that! I think it will premiere to a 0.7 or higher (hopefully higher!) and its average will be a 0.7 (with two decimals, my guess would be 0.71).
Red Band Society: Like you, I have no idea what this is going to do. Apparently it premieres one week before official premiere week so its premiere might do a 1.8+. I think the average will be a 1.5.
The Middle: Premiere 2.0+, average 1.9
The Goldbergs: Premiere 1.8+, average 1.8.
Modern Family: I agree about the show having had its peak. Premiere will be 3.5+, average of 3.3.
Black-ish: History likely to repeat itself. Premiere 2.0+, average 1.7.
Nashville: Premiere 1.5+, average 1.3.
The Mysteries of Laura: This will sample good but that doesn't mean anything (see also: Intelligence). I say it premieres to a 1.8+, with an average of 1.3 (with average I am also counting the premiere).
Law and Order: SVU: Premiere of 2.0+, average 1.6
Chicago PD: Was a bit dependent of lead-in SVU and crossovers with Chicago Fire. I think it will premiere to a 1.7+, while its season average will be a 1.6.
Criminal Minds: Premiere 2.5+, average of 2.4.
Stalker: Premiere 2.0+, average of 1.8.
My Wednesdays (or rather, Thursdays as I don't live in the US and watch everything online) will be filled with Arrow, The 100 and Stalker. Perhaps an occasional Criminal Minds or SVU.
I'm writing to you because I have a question: I speak French and I don't understand a sentence in FALL TV PREVIEW-WEDNESDAYS
ReplyDeleteIt's for revenge (and other shows)
What is guess (the number)? and Potential for major deviation?
Thank you for your time,
Kind regards,
Julien
On CW, Arrow will take a league-average drop, The 100 will grow a little bit airing on fall.
ReplyDeleteOn CBS, Criminal Minds will probably fall around 10-15% like the later years while Stalker might be their highest rated 10 PM drama.
On NBC, SVU will drop above-average since some episodes from last season were inflated, it'll come to costs for a next season, Chicago PD will probably drop less and see a 3rd season. Mysteries of Laura will last 3 episodes.
On ABC, The Middle will be steady and help Goldbergs growth, Modern Family will take a smaller drop given how it ended the season and the sydication will finally help, Black-ish will probably get porr retention though and Nashville will fall to a dangerous territory, will ABC make another 22 episodes for a 4th season?
On FOX, I don't know, but my initial bet is a 13 and done for Red Band Society.
ACK! Was catching up on Teen Wolf so I missed the Wednesday post! Wednesdays are pretty light for me when compared to Monday and Tuesday though so this will be comparable short as well.
ReplyDeleteI don't watch The Middle, The Goldbergs, Modern Family, Nashville, Law & Order: SVU or Chicago PD so I predicted average decreases for them I have no intention of watching Mysteries of Laura so I predicted around a 1.0. With how universally disliked it is, I will be surprised if all 13 episodes actually make it to air.
I will give Black-ish a try. The promos look good - so I'll give it at least three episodes to win me over. I think it will premiere in the mid twos because of Modern Family's lead in but if it doesn't deliver the goods, it will drop fast.
Criminal Minds is one of my favorite shows - been with it since the beginning so Stalker is right up my alley. I think Criminal Minds is going to benefit from adding JLH to the cast at least initially. If they don't do anything interesting with her character then people may not stick around but I think it will, at least initially, give CM a bit of a boost. I think Stalker is going to benefit from have CM as a lead in - really, not other show on CBS would fit so perfectly with it but as you mentioned, like CM, the material on Stalker may be a bit too dark or hit just a little to close to home for some.
I agree that Arrow is going to benefit from The Flash as well. I think it will stay steady in the 0.9-1.1 range for the majority of the season with spikes here and there when there are crossovers with The Flash.
I really liked The 100 and if they can keep the storytelling as tight as they did in S1, I think this show is going to do quite well in a fall lineup. I agree that the two week delay for the premier is not going to do it any favors but I think the move to fall with negate most of that negative impact.
Red Band Society - saved it to last as I am just as up in the air about this show as you are. I will be tuning in because of Octavia Spencer but if the actual story doesn't grab my attention, then I'm out and I'm thinking that many other people feel the same.
I'll definitely be watching The 100 again this season, love that show, it was such a surprise last season.
ReplyDeleteI'll also be checking out Red Band Society & Stalker.
I won't be watching Arrow again, last season was just far too boring for me. I stopped watching shortly after the Three Ghosts episode which was my favourite of the show and then binge-watched the rest when the season ended. The last 2 or 3 episodes did improve but not enough to win me back.
Thanks for the interest on this one as well;) Some thoughts:
ReplyDelete- I agree about the quality of Arrow and The 100. Arrow definitely hit a creative stride last year which was why its spring drops bothered me so much, I felt like it was SO much better than Season 1. I really hope both shows have great seasons. Judging at the predictions people have been submitting, I am clearly too optimistic about The 100 here but well, I really have high hopes for it!
- Agreed about Red Band Society: it has the potential for both big hit and big miss, it's very tough to judge.
- From what I understand, the only thing Kevin Williamson gave to The Secret Circle was his name, I believe he wasn't really involved with the show, but I could be wrong. I think everything he touches works at least for the first year. And it's not Stalker doesn't already have a number of factors going for it!
Hey once again and thanks for the continued interest! Well Criminal Minds was certainly still a very strong this season in absolute terms since it was the 12th highest rated scripted show of the season and CBS's number two drama. In relative terms it fell a bit more than the overall average (-13%) but for a show of its age that's also still very good so yes, I agree, it's still going strong. I think JLW is a bit big CBS household name so I thin it's the type of casting that could attract some additional eyeballs. And like I said, the Stalker pairing is perfect so I think there could be some positive synergies there.
ReplyDeleteWhich upgrade are you referring to? I've got nothing new.
ReplyDeleteThanks for stopping by, by the way!
Man, you're very lucky with all the things you get to experience shows' wise eheh I am jealous.
ReplyDeleteIn regards to The 100, I strongly recommend that you finish watching. I really adore that show, it's for sure one of my absolute favorites and it's one of those that I felt were getting better by the episode. I cannot wait for the second season! And good point about the competition being very different from it. I just wish the World Series wouldn't be there, but well! Arrow is another one my absolute favorites so well, I really love these CW Wednesdays!
Thanks for the continued interest by the way ;)
Thanks for stopping by ;)
ReplyDeleteAhah, I think The Middle is sitting well for a good season. I would be surprised if it does any worse than taking a drop on par with the overall broadcasters ;)
Yes, episode 8 of each Arrow and Flash season has a crossover event.
ReplyDeleteYeah, I will catch up with The 100. My sister has watched it all, but since I was travelling in the US for the last 3 months I haven't had the time to binge-watch shows I was behind with, but only watch the shows I've been up to date with (Defiance, Falling Skies, Teen Wolf, Under the Dome, Graceland). There's no end to television with us.
ReplyDeleteAnd bring on Ra's Al Ghul!
LGS3- You missed an awesome season of SVU, I actually thought it was better than the previous season
ReplyDeleteThanks for the continued interest in these previews ;) Well we agree for the most part. I don't think AHS will be that affected by Jessica Lange's leaving but we shall see next season.
ReplyDeleteToo bad you missed out on some awesome acting in SVU, it was a much better season than expected. Plus the season finale ending off on a positive note for once
ReplyDeleteI really don't think any of the new shows will survive past three episodes. They don't seem to hold any premise of being an actual hit, in my opinion . I could be wrong
ReplyDeleteThanks for stopping by and for the interest.
ReplyDeleteI am probably Paul Lee's biggest hater around here and I could go on and on and on listing its shitty moves but I actually think he has done more than this single one (the biggest one being grooming Scandal to become the hit it is now). But I agree moving The Goldbergs to Wednesdays is a great move.
I am surprised that you think Stalker is DOA. Why do you think so? The show has everything going for it. A high rated and extremely compatible lead-in, no strong competition, a lot of stars and big names involved, CBS promoting it. Why do you think it's DOA? It could even end up not working creatively and being cancelled but DOA? I am surprised by that prediction.
The rest of it I agree with you!
Ahah we've had that conversation before. I don't know which one of us wants The 100 to do well the most. I think the show deserves that SO much!
ReplyDeleteJudging at the guesses people have submitted so far though, I seem to be overly optimistic about it. Let's hope not.
Yep, we discussed this already. It's just that The 100 deserves so badly to be a mega hit that it is bound to come up again.
ReplyDeleteLet's cross our fingers so that The 100 actually performs better. Scew the submissions! This show deserves the ratings!
Thanks for the interest and for stopping by!
ReplyDeleteI am right there with you hoping for the best for Arrow and The 100! Let's seriously hope they can grow!
Regarding AHS, I think it's hard to make those prognosis because there isn't any consensus about what's the best season. Personally, I really didn't like Season 1 at all (I didn't even finish it, left it around the middle of the season), I LOOOOOVED season 2 like seriously one of my favorite 13 episode runs of any series and Season 3 was ok for me (great every now and then, bad at some parts, and just meh in others, overall I felt it didn't live it to its potential and it wasted my favorite actors of the show which are Evan Peters and Sarah Paulson). But this is far from being a consensus so I dunno.
Thanks for stopping by ;)
ReplyDeleteI doubt Criminal Minds wraps this season, it was still CBS' number two drama this year. Maybe if the ratings fall a lot and the contracts fall down to the wire, but other than that I am not seeing it.
I really hope Arrow and The Flash (and The 100 btw) do great as you are saying, I am pulling for them!
Thank you, for the interest and for the kind words, appreciate it!
ReplyDeleteWe are mostly in agreement, even with what we will be watching. I would just trade in Stalker by Red Band Society. Stalker does indeed look great and I like the stars but I don't really feel like watching another procedural show especially one with such a dark subject matter. Maybe later on I will change my mind, because I've liked everything Kevin has done, but so far I am not seeing it.
Let's cross our fingers and hope for those ratings boost for Arrow and The 100, I really pray that it happens!
Well i came on, and everything's slightly different. Like the look is different. Hahaha yeah it's been a bit since i came on. = )
ReplyDeleteOctober can't get here soon enough!!
ReplyDeleteAhah that sentence is so true "there's no end to television with us", I seem to never be caught up with all my shows, but that's probably also because I keep adding new shows ahah!
ReplyDeleteAhah don't mind me, I love your optimism and I agree with you 100%, that show is mind blowing and yes I realize I sound like a major fanboy but what the hell! I really hope the ratings inch up!
ReplyDeleteThanks for the interest and for stopping by!
ReplyDeleteWell personally I didn't really find anything wrong with the second half of the season, I thought Season 2 as a whole was incredible and that the show was exploding in all cylinders, I really loved it, so I thought the drop in ratings was unfair. This being said, I am a big fan of Sara so maybe that's why I didn't mind when she was more front and center.
Regardless, let's hope for the best for Season 3, I am hopeful!
I'm counting down the days dude. Tomorrow (Saturday) A bunch of us fans, are going to start our Arrow marathon! Starting with season 1. We're gonna watch one episode a day, til Oct 7th!
ReplyDeleteThanks again for the continued participation, only one more left ;)
ReplyDeleteAs for the cancelled shows, I think Laura is as safe of a bet as they come (I don't think it even lasts until November sweeps) and like I've said I think Red Band could go either way. Blackish is a trickier case because even though I really don't feel very optimistic about it, it also has a lot going for it, so I really don't know. But those are some good predictions.
Other than that, we are in vastly agreement, as per usual ;)
Hey there! Thanks for stopping by and sorry I couldn't answer you sooner. So, the guess is my prediction for the 18-49s ratings that the show will average throughout next season. The potential for major deviation reflects how confident I m about that prediction, so if a show has a high potential for deviation it means I am not very confident; while if it has low potential for deviation that means I am very confident.
ReplyDeleteThanks for the continued interest ;)
ReplyDeleteI agree with all of that! Regarding Nashville, I suspect the deal they made for it this year makes it cheap enough to carry it to syndication numbers but we shall see. My pet idea would be for ABC to air the first half now in the fall and then air the second half in the summer post bachelorette. It would likely do mistresses-esque numbers if not a bit better and it would be worth it due to syndication. Doing so would free a slot to launch a midseason drama for them.
Thanks Emma for the continued interest in these! We agree about everything I think today, nothing really to add! By the way, the Red Band Society pilot has been made available if you are interested in it!
ReplyDeleteI really hope so! I am very hyped for the new season as well, as I am for The 100!! I hope CW Wednesdays kick major ass!
ReplyDeleteFull agreement about The 100 that the show is awesomeee even though it really wasn't a surprise for me as it was probably the show I was looking forward to the most even since pilot season from a year ago and it certainly didn't disappoint me a bit.
ReplyDeleteRegarding Arrow though I do not agree at all, I think Season 2 was on fire in all cylinders and I've loved it all. I wish you would reconsider but well, agree to disagree if not ;) Hopefully if there is good enough buzz you will be drawn back in!
Hey there, thanks for stopping by. That's a very pessimistic prognosis, for sure and I disagree. I will be surprised if Stalker doesn't get renewed, that show seems to have everything going for it! Even other like Black-ish, they are sure to have at least enough raw numbers to make it through the 13 initial episode order.
ReplyDeleteThe only one of the new Wednesday shows which I see being an outright flop and indeed not lasting 3 episodes is Laura.
The show got way too politically heavy handed for me. I get it, NBC is a left wing channel, that likes to push it's ideals in it shows. The show has always been somewhat political. But there used to be a counter voice, Fin, Munch, and sometimes Stabler, even if they were only playing lip service. But they started to throw that out, for one sided views right before Stabler left. Everybody who had a different view, was either evil, or an idiot. If i wanted political propaganda shoved down my throat, i would just watch MSNBC, FNC, or CNN.
ReplyDeleteBut the episode they did them in, was the military rape case. The military hid the offenders, and charged the victim with adultery. BS would never happen, those "men", would be in Leavenworth, so fast it would make their heads spin. The US military is NOT the Taliban, they don't stone woman who are raped. NBC has always been anti-military, SVU has had several episodes, with evil US soldiers, and i got sick of it. Shame, i watched for over 14 years, and loved the cast.
See my reply to Joanna.
ReplyDeleteI saw that and now I'm torn! I really want to watch it but at the same time, if I really like it, I don't want to wait another month for another episode!
ReplyDeleteI always have the exact same issue and I am debating the same thing with Red Band Society as we speak. I am always very anxious to sample the new shows but I find that if I do it, then it takes away from the enjoyment of the second episode and the experience isn't as good. But I rarely manage to hold on until the very end so it's just a matter of time :P
ReplyDeleteI think Arrow will maintain 1.0 for the most part......all the news of character and storyline is great....
ReplyDeleteU have nothing to thank me for, U 're doing a great job here. Very much appreciate.
ReplyDeleteI don't get a good vibe from RB Society, no clue why. I don't watch to many procedural shows so Stalker will fit in right.
Thanks!!!
ReplyDeleteAnd let me say I'll watch Red Band Society (at least the pilot) JUST for the 'hot doctor' Dave Annable, he looks so freaking boiling and mega-hot with thar grizzled hair.
ReplyDeleteJust Nashville and Melissa & Joey
ReplyDeleteIts not Sara being front and center that caused season 2B bad. Its the lack of continuity in general. They introduced Slade in Starling City way too early imo. After that Blood got reduced to this minion. Every one was looking forward to seeing how Slade will extract his revenge from Oliver. Instead after three ghosts till the last scene of ToD we hardly see him. They started so many story lines and then keep adding on to it. Isabel was hardly there. Roy once joining Team Arrow vanished and Sara took over with her romance with Oliver (romance bit was unnecessary imo). Then added Suicide Squad, then Birds of Prey. Why not take some time to show the characters progress?
ReplyDeleteAll that being said I still enjoyed Arrow season 2 a lot. I got frustrated a bit but it was a great ride. I have huge expectations with season 3. Everyone's arc looks promising even Laurel's.
I know they won't wrap it up.LOL. I have been with criminal minds since the beginning. But for me now it has lost its charm. Its like we have seen it all earlier and dialogues and profile sound similar.
ReplyDeleteHere is fingers crossed for Arrow and The Flash. They have a lot of internet chatter and media interest for sure. But last year's ratings was a bit troubling. Arrow should have done better than season 1. Maybe being more serialized might be the reason.
There's no political propaganda. It's just a show, they are not trying to shove anything down anyone's throat. You are taking this a bit too far.
ReplyDeleteSVU addresses things such a rape in the military which happen more than you think, They aren't making soliders evil, they are showing things that do happen that aren't reported because they are scared about what will happen if they did come forward..
They never showed the military trying to be like the Taliban, No offense but you are taking this show too much out of proportion...
Not every episodes is about the military.. The show deals with Rape, child abuse, domestic abuse, things that happen in real life. A lot of survivors watch the show. some of the stories are based on real life events.
" There are political mentions but everyone show does that."
ReplyDeleteThat's the way it used to be. There used to be two sides to the conversation. Now everyone is in agreement. I can give you numerous examples. I'm an moderate independent, who agrees with liberals on some things, and conservatives on others, and i see the bias clearly.
Stabler's last episode when that stated, that the city has a hand gun problem, everyone agreed. That was before the shooting. The overwhelming majority, of police departments in the US, support the second amendment. You would think that someone, would have spoke up. But of course not, because that was NBC's view, not the reality of the situation.
There was an episode, in season 13 or 14, there a woman was considering having an abortion. Her husband started to speak up, but Rollins jumped in his face, and told him he had no voice in the matter. He didn't rape or abuse anyone. But her husband, the father of her unborn child, can't even express his opinion on the subject? That's an extremist point of view, which is in lock step with NBC's viewpoint, on the subject.
How many evil corporation episodes? How many with crazy christians? Terrorist Israelis? Evil conservatives? Evil or crazy US soldiers? Why did the parent show always show muslims, as the good guys or victims? Except in the honor killing case, in which the muslim men were bad guys, as any person doing honor killings should be.
How many anti-government, or anti War on Terrorism episodes, when Bush was President? How many anti-government episodes, since Obama became President? I didn't see any, but i may missed a few, since i dropped it a few episodes into last season.
Revolution: Militias (as in right wing) take over the country, after the blackouts. And all of the militias were bad guys. They had their crazy backward thinking "God believers", this last season too. Believe: "We don't carry guns Mr. Tate. We're the good guys". So every cop and US soldier, are bad guys if they carry guns? I loved that show, but come on...
And that's only a few i can think of, off the top of my head. There are numerous more, if you want me to look them up? "Going too far"? I think not.
Part 2:
ReplyDelete"SVU addresses things such a rape in the military which happen more than you think, They aren't making soliders evil, they are showing things that do happen that aren't reported because they are scared about what will happen if they did come forward.."
You make a good point. It does seem to me, that when the military is involved in an episode, there is always an scumbag who is a soldier. But since that is, what the cops deal with, it makes sense. But my big problem with the episode, was the cover up and punishing the victim. Under those circumstances, that would never happen. Rape does not equal adultery. Which is why i referred to the Taliban. They punish victims of rape, and let the perpetrators get away with it.
The more i think about it though, i think it comes off as left wing propaganda, because the writers just write from their world view, with their biases. But it does get a little heavy sometimes. They take the liberal view on everything, sometimes the far left view. But that's Hollywood.
I do miss the characters a lot. It was one of the few "case of the week" procedurals, i could sit through. I have thought about giving it another chance. Maybe???