I am sorry for the late post today but I was traveling during the day and didn't get the chance to get this one up sooner. I will leave it tomorrow until late in the day before I upload the Wednesday post! I also apologize in advance for how lengthy this one ended up being, I think it is one of the heaviest days! I would also like to thank everyone that participated so far, both through comments and by submitting their predictions! I encourage you all to do the same!
Anyway, back to business! For those of you that are new to the drill, I welcome you to the Fall TV Preview initiative, in which we try to see which one of us is best with the crystal ball in previewing the rating for our favorite shows in the fall! I share my predictions with some analysis and then I invite you to submit your own! Hopefully, at the end of the season, we can all have fun comparing the results!
Previous posts (The prediction forms will be open until the week before the start of the official season which is when some of the stuff starts to premiere, so feel free to go back and submit your predictions):
- Monday Shows
Tuesdays
Selfie (New Show)
Lead-in: Local Programming
Lead-out: Manhattan Love Story
Episode Order: 13 (potentially 22-24) episodes
Competition: The Voice, NCIS, Utopia and The Flash
The Pros:
• The show is gathering a very good amount of critical support and appears to be high on ABC’s promotional efforts.
• In the age of social media exploding, I think there is some serious potential for a show that focuses on it to hit big time, regardless of whether or not this is the show that is able to do it.
• Emily Kapnek, the show’s creator, has proven to be able to create hit shows before, seeing how Suburgatory was pretty successful during its first season.
• No comedy competition on the hour.
The Cons:
• The competition is fierce, particularly on the NBC front where The Voice will held hostage all those W18-34 that this show wants to capture.
• ABC has a really terrible track record at launching comedies that are not family focused, so can Selfie really become the exception?
• Self-starting a night like ABC is asking Selfie to do requires a tremendous amount of buzz. Does Selfie have it?
The Verdict: I am at such a loss here. I want to believe the show could survive on its merits but history doesn’t really support that. We could nitpick how hard the competition and the timeslot really are here but I suspect it comes down to something far more basic which is whether or not there will be enough interest here. And that ultimately comes down to a matter of guessing and yours is good as mine, I don’t really have a compelling argument to make about it. Mine is that it goes middle of the road kind of way. No hit, no flop, sits on the bubble for the entire season and ultimately gives a nail bitter at season’s end.
The Guess: 1.51
Potential for Major Deviation: High
Manhattan Love Story (New Show)
Lead-in: Selfie
Lead-out: Marvel's Agents of Shield
Episode Order: 13 (potentially 22-24) episodes
Competition: The Voice, NCIS, Utopia and The Flash
The Pros
• Hmmm….I suppose if Selfie explodes out of the gate Manhattan Love Story can easily be carried along for the ride.
The Cons
• All of ABC’s promotional efforts on this hour, as well as media buzz, seem to be about Selfie. Manhattan Love Story seems to be lost in the shuffle and that could easily translate in the ratings.
• The show doesn’t really have a big selling point that will guarantee its sampling (i.e. no big stars, no big names behind it, no hot topic)
• The timeslot is pretty bad competition wise and there’s just too much uncertainty about Selfie to make any comments lead-in wise.
The Verdict: I happen to be quite interested in this show and looking forward to it but if there is one word that I think would describe it for now is buzz-less. Indeed, Manhattan Love Story's biggest challenge may be to bring enough attention to itself to guarantee that it is even sampled to begin with. As much as I think I will like it, I am just not confident on that happening. I think it will end up being all about retention from Selfie. I say it retains about 70%. The problem is that Selfie’s numbers are not likely to be high enough to sustain this retention. I say it’s one (probably full because ABC will want to try Selfie out and has nothing else to pair it with) and done.
The Guess: 1.06
Potential for Major Deviation: Average
Marvel's Agents of Shield (2.39 Last Year)
Lead-in: Manhattan Love Story
Lead-out: Forever
Episode Order: 22 episodes
Competition: NCIS New Orleans, Marry Me & About a Boy, New Girl & The Mindy Project, Supernatural
The Pros
• For all the talk that Shield had about dropping unstoppably, the show was remarkably stable in the second half of the season! During the last 13 episodes (!) of the season, the show didn’t move from the 1.8-2.2 area at all. What’s more, during the show’s final 8 episodes, the needle didn’t move from the 1.9-2.1 area. That’s as stable as it gets!
• I don’t really like to bring these sort of arguments into here, but since it is such a general consensus, it seems pretty worth mentioning how the show got its act together in the second half creatively wise. Maybe the positive word of mouth can bring some of those initial viewers back.
• Moving to 9pm means exposure to a higher viewing hour!
• The 9pm move also means that Shield no longer has to face NCIS head to head, with whom it clearly shared an audience (as seen by the spikes in episodes in which NCIS was in reruns). As an additional bonus, no facing the almighty The Voice either!
• Shield’s scheduling of episodes in winter was comically bad as it appeared that ABC was simply throwing up a dice to decide when to air the next original or the next repeat. With Agent Carter now filling in, Shield will enjoy a much better schedule with the split season treatment that did wonders for Once Upon a Time and others this year.
The Cons
• If Manhattan Love Story flops hard, it may very well end up being a weaker lead-in than local programming was last year.
• Shield has eroded so much of its initial audience that it could be that there really aren’t enough new viewers still interested in trying it again.
• As well as it does throughout the year, there is virtually no chance Shield beats those early fall episodes from last year, which means year to year comparisons will always look worse than they are in reality.
The Verdict: I am fairly optimistic about this and I think there are plenty of good enough reasons for that. The timeslot is much better in more than one way, the trend during winter-spring episodes was remarkably stable, the show really seemed to get its act together creatively and the split season treatment worked so well for ABC this year. I think these are all major points so I think Shield is headed for a nice, rebound season!
The Guess: 2.07 (-13%)
Potential for Major Deviation: Average
Forever (New Show)
Lead-in: Marvel's Agents of Shield
Lead-out: Local Programming
Episode Order: 13 (potentially 22-24) episodes
Competition: Person of Interest, Chicago Fire and Sons of the Anarchy/ Justified
The Pros
• Agents of Shield is a decent lead-in to have.
• This show appears to be a very natural fit with the Dancing with the Stars audience, so a preview after it could really do wonders for it before it premieres on its regular timeslot on Tuesday.
• The concept may be surprisingly broad enough to attract a wide range of different audiences from genre fans to procedural fans.
The Cons
• Agents of Shield may be an okay lead-in to have but its M18-34 heavy audience will promptly reject this old-skewing procedural, which means it won’t do Forever much good.
• Tuesdays at 10pm is actually a very competitive hour, seeing how both CBS and NBC have some of their very best 10pm players in the hour with Person of Interest and Chicago Fire. Besides, even cable throws some heavy lifters here, particularly during fall when Sons of the Anarchy regularly beat the broadcasters last season.
• A show that’s so clearly trying to appeal to so many different audiences always runs the inevitable risk of not being able to appeal to a single audience at the end.
• The Whispers is waiting in the can and that show just appears to be a much more logical fit with Agents of Shield.
The Verdict: I am not sold here. It could work and I would not be surprised because it really does have some things going for it, but I am going by the book here and saying that the bad timeslot situation will prevail here. This show would likely have had a shot as a DWTS lead out but as a Shield leadout and against POI and Chicago Fire? I don’t think so. I say 13 and out, with The Whispers taking over at midseason.
The Guess: 1.33
Potential for Major Deviation: Average
Marry Me (New Show)
Lead-in:The Voice/?/The Voice
Lead-out: About a Boy
Episode Order: 13 (potentially 22-24) episodes
Competition: New Girl, NCIS New Orleans, Marvel's Agents of Shield and Supernatural
The Pros
• The Voice as a lead-in is the best gift NBC can give to a new show.
• Although the hour is competitive, at least this year there won’t be a 3 way clash of single cams comedies. New Girl will be the only comedy competition and that show is not exactly a bonafire hit right now.
• Plenty of promotional push.
The Cons
• The Voice may be the lead-in of this show during fall but something else will have to take over the 8pm hour come winter. That ended up being Go On’s death sentence so Marry Me certainly runs the same risk.
• While there is plenty of talent involved, most of these people are associated with cut shows like Happy Endings that were not exactly ratings hits.
• New Girl may not be a powerhouse anymore in the main demo but its strength in W18-34 is still nothing to be shy about.
• NBC has more comedies in reserve than I have any memory of which means Marry Me, which will take up what is by far the best slot for a comedy, will be on a very short leash from early on.
The Verdict: I don’t have a strong opinion here. I don’t find the promos very appealing but the voice should at least ensure initial sampling. After that, it really could go either way. I say it does About a Boy type of retention during the fall but collapses during winter prompting NBC to try out one of its many comedies in reserve in the slot come Spring.
The Guess: 1.78
Potential for Major Deviation: Average
About a Boy (1.88 Last Year)
Lead-in:Marry Me
Lead-out: Chicago Fire
Episode Order: 22-24 episodes
Competition: The Mindy Project, NCIS New Orleans, Marvel's Agents of Shield and Supernatural
The Pros:
• About a Boy has lost its direct the voice lead-in but will still be in the voice orbit which may still prop it up to some extent.
• Having the mindy project as the only comedy competition is considerably easier for About a Boy than it was to have both the goldbergs and new girl.
• About a Boy will get to air in the fall instead of exclusively in the spring so it will enjoy greater viewing levels.
• Its 9h30 finale last year was only down a tenth from the 9h episode. That could mean there is an independent audience watching the show that will stick around for 9h30.
The Cons:
• Loosing the direct voice lead-in will hurt this show big time.
• Last year, the show had the entire NBC promotional machine focused on it during Spring. No such luck this year as the show has pretty much no buzz surrounding it while NBC is far more occupied promoting its new shows (and The Blacklist).
• NBC didn’t bother repeating this show during summer so far. For a show as young as this is, it’s out of sight, out of mind. Whatever audience About a Boy could have had, it may not be loyal enough to withstand such a long hiatus without repeats, on top of a timeslot downgrade move.
• Marry Me as lead-in is a big question mark, because if that show flops, it’s pretty unlikely that About a Boy can self-start by itself at the bottom of the hour.
The Verdict: I don’t think About a Boy’s performance will be anything to write home about, either in the positive or in the negative side. I see it being very much a direct result of whatever Marry Me does in the 9pm hour. I say it does the typical 85% retention in this slot, which could actually be more valuable to NBC than what Marry Me does and allow it to stick around longer, especially considering it has more episodes in the can.
The Guess: 1.52 (-19%)
Potential for Major Deviation: Low
Chicago Fire (2.03 Last Year)
Lead-in: About a Boy
Lead-out: Local Programming
Episode Order: 22-24 episodes
Competition: Person of Interest, Forever and Sons of the Anarchy/Justified
The Pros:
• Chicago Fire was one of the most stable shows airing last year, which is even more impressive due to the fact that it was changing lead-ins quite often (The Voice, The Biggest Loser, Growing Up Fisher, About a Boy). In fact, from episode 3 onwards, it never moved from the 1.7-2.3 radius, which is pretty impressive especially considering the change in lead-ins. What’s more, from episode 12 to 22, the results were always 1.8 or 1.9 except for a 1.7 in one episode. That’s some remarkably stability and a very positive trend!
• The show will get to air after the voice for its first two episodes so that should be good enough to ensure initial tune in for the season!
• With Chicago PD now also part of the rotation, the synergies are limitless for the Dick Wolf empire, including more crossovers which always help these shows.
The Cons:
• Despite the very positive trend, the show’s best results came when following the voice, which will only happen for two episodes this year.
• The timeslot could potentially get more competitive if Forever manages to prove to be at least a better alternative than the flops ABC had there last year.
The Verdict: I am a big buyer when shows give me such a positive trend as Chicago Fire did last year. I was seriously impressed with its capacity to hold its audience even with a much worse lead-in. At one point, the show even pulled off a 1.9 from a very miserable 1.2 from Growing Up Fisher. So I don’t see any reason for Chicago Fire not to have a very good season. I will be surprised if it doesn’t end up outrating the 9pm hour again as was happening in late spring.
The Guess: 1.88 (-7%)
Potential for Major Deviation: Low
New Girl (1.65 Last Year)
Lead-in: Utopia
Lead-out: The Mindy Project
Episode Order: 22-24 episodes
Competition: Marry Me, NCIS New Orleans, Marvel's Agents of Shield and Supernatural
The Pros
• Although I don’t really believe in Utopia working for FOX, that still ought to be a better lead-in than Glee. I mean, how much worse can FOX really do? Additionally, if by any chance Utopia is a surprise hit for FOX, New Girl can catch the wave and benefit from a strong lead-in! (which it hasn’t had since the first half of season 1).
• The Goldbergs ended up a surprisingly strong comedy competition. Now that it’s gone and that the unproven Marry Me is the only comedy competition left, the hour is friendlier for New Girl.
• Not having to face the voice during the fall like it happened last year.
The Cons:
• Did you see those Spring numbers? Yikes… New Girl was trending down FAST and badly last year. Is there really a way to invert or at least stop that? It’s hard to imagine it!
• Utopia may even have better raw numbers than Glee did but its W18-34 audience will be considerably smaller and that was the audience still fueling New Girl last year. On the other hand, chances are that Utopia is still a big flop, even if it is a slightly less embarrassing flop than Glee.
• Even if it didn’t really seem to benefit from it, New Girl got plenty of attention from FOX with the post Superbowl slot. No such luck this year.
• If Marry Me is a surprise hit, New Girl will again find itself facing a very strong comedy competition.
The Verdict: I like this show but I don’t see how something that trended downwards so badly during Spring can suddenly revert that. If a lot of things work well (Utopia being a big hit, Marry Me failing, Mindy gaining a surprising amount of traction and FOX overall gaining some traction) I could see the show recovering but those are too many things for me to bet on. Ultimately, I don’t find any compelling reasons to believe it manages to overcome that lousy trend.
The Guess: 1.21 (-28%)
Potential for Major Deviation: Average
The Mindy Project (1.28 Last Year)
Lead-in: New Girl
Lead-out: Local Programming
Episode Order: 15 episodes
Competition: About a Boy, NCIS New Orleans, Marvel's Agents of Shield and Supernatural
The Pros
• Despite being low, The Mindy Project was at least consistent and didn’t exhibit a very negative downwards trend like New Girl. That could mean there is a loyal audience around willing to stick with it!
• The finale had a surprisingly sizable spike, even flat out beating New Girl for the first time. That could show some promise.
• The Mindy Project had a large chunk of its episodes during spring last year when the viewing levels were at its lowest. This year, if the episode order sticks, chances are that Mindy gets to air exclusively in the fall and winter, which should help the year to year comparisons.
• Critical acclaim really seems to have exploded during the second half of Season 2 for this show. Maybe that could bring in some additional eyeballs.
• Not having to face the voice during the fall like it happened last year.
The Cons
• The Mindy Project was also said to be stable during Season 1 but that didn’t really prevent Season 2 from falling 19%!
• Despite how low it ended the season, New Girl was still a pretty decent lead-in during fall which was helping out The Mindy Project more than we thought. With New Girl collapsing, The Mindy Project comes down right with it.
• Airing that episode order straight through like it seems to be the plan also likely entails some episodes airing out of reruns.
The Verdict: Whenever a show gets to have its finale even year to year, I find that a good sign. In this case particularly it’s even more valuable because of the drastically different lead-in situations. I don’t think The Mindy Project will ever explode to become a hit, but I do think its relative performance this year will look frankly better than it did last fall with everything else in scrambles on this Tuesday mess and Mindy remaining its same old stable.
The Guess: 1.21 (-5%)
Potential for Major Deviation: Low
NCIS (2.81 Last Year)
Lead-in: Local Programming
Lead-out:NCIS New Orleans
Episode Order: 22-24 episodes
Competition: Selfie/Manhattan Love Story, The Voice, Utopia and The Flash
The Pros:
• NCIS took its biggest year to year drop in 11 seasons last year which was when ABC finally had a solid drama in the slot. I don’t think that was any coincidence. With Shield gone from the hour, NCIS has a big chance to recover.
• As nice as the pairing with LA was over the years, New Orleans could bring extra buzz and attention to the night, which could allow the mothership to enjoy some gains as well in the process.
The Cons:
• During the last seasons, NCIS has pretty much up put some fall raw numbers that are in line with those from previous spring. Considering that this spring its decline was greater than usual, that could mean a bad season ahead of it.
• Last year, NCIS had to face the voice during spring only, while this year that show will be there for the entire year.
The Verdict: I do think the spring drops were a bit worrisome but other than that, I think there are compelling reasons to expect an okay season out of NCIS. The pairing with New Orleans should help it out a bit and, most importantly, Agents of Shield leaving the hour should be a major upgrade. I still think it falls a bit more than the overall shows, but not as much as last year.
The Guess: 2.48 (-12%)
Potential for Major Deviation: Low
NCIS: New Orleans (New Show)
Lead-in: NCIS
Lead-out: Person of Interest
Episode Order: 13 (potentially 22-24) episodes
Competition: Marvel's Agents of Shield, Marry Me/About a Boy, New Girl/The Mindy Project and Supernatural
The Pros
• That NCIS-brand
• The highest rated drama CBS has as a lead-in, which also happens to be the most compatible show it could ask for
• Agents of Shield is some solid drama competition, but that’s pretty much it as far as drama competition goes, since both FOX and NBC are going with comedies at this hour
• CBS’ promotional machine is well behind this show.
The Cons
• Agents of Shield really appeared to have put a dent in the mothership ratings last year, so while it is the only drama competition to focus, it’s certainly a worthy one.
• The Voice will air from 8 to 10 in the opening weeks of the season, which could limit the sampling for this show.
The Verdict: I think it will be pretty tough for this one not to make it as it appears to have everything right going for it. I do think that Shield in this hour could prove to be a tougher proposition than it looks, but I imagine the show will have a big enough buffer to withstand that. At the end of the day, I think it does right about what LA would have done, which is a big win considering it frees up that show to help CBS elsewhere.
The Guess: 2.12
Potential for Major Deviation: Average
Person of Interest (1.97 Last Year)
Lead-in: NCIS New Orleans
Lead-out: Local Programming
Episode Order: 22-24 episodes
Competition: Chicago Fire, Forever and Sons of the Anarchy/Justified
The Pros
• If NCIS New Orleans can inject new life into CBS Tuesday, Person of Interest, as its lead-out, is the best show poised to benefit from it.
• The show was pretty stable throughout the season, particularly during Spring, managing to avoid drops of similar magnitude than those from fellow Tuesday shows, NCIS and NCIS Los Angeles. That suggests a positive trend.
The Cons
• Chances are that this hour gets more competitive with Forever in the loop, which should prove to be at least a better alternative than the flops ABC had in there last year.
• Just as easily as New Orleans can reinvigorate the night, it can also prove to be a worse lead-in for POI than LA was last year.
• During its third season, Person of Interest has turned from a procedural with heavily serialized elements to a full fledged serialized show with the occasional filler-procedural episode. That means that it could more easily start eroding viewers like typical serialized shows do in its runs.
The Verdict: Although I am a big fan of the show and of what it did last year, I worry a lot about the effects that the serialization might have on the rating, especially on a CBS environment where serialization isn’t really the norm. On the other hand, the show was pretty stable last year so I don’t find any significant causes for concern. I say it takes an average esque drop.
The Guess: 1.77 (-10%)
Potential for Major Deviation: Low
The Flash (New Show)
Lead-in: Local Programming
Lead-out: Supernatural
Episode Order: 13 (potentially 22-24) episodes
Competition:NCIS, The Voice, Selfie/Manhattan Love Story and Utopia
The Pros
• The Flash has more buzz than any CW show in recent memory that I remember which should at last guarantee its sampling
• As a spinoff from Arrow, there is also a large enough number of viewers that should be willing to check it out.
• The CW is clearly going all-in on this show including practically the entire efforts of the CW’s promotional machine (it’s the first year in a while that the CW premieres only 2 newbies in the fall) and encores after the parent show Arrow during the first two weeks of the season.
• The timeslot has no prohibitive competition, especially in what concerns the M18-34 target demo
• Supernatural as a lead-out has proven to be a powerful advantage for CW newbies.
The Cons
• Although not strong on the M18-34 demo, the timeslot still has big enough players in the forms of NCIS and, especially, The Voice.
The Verdict: I think it’s pretty hard not to feel positive about this one. The night seems perfect for it competition wise (especially since ABC kindly moved Agents of Shield out of the way) and literally every single CW promotional muscle seems to be in service of this show right now. I think it will do great for the CW, quite possibly beating out The Originals average from a year ago, which was already a very successful show.
The Guess: Equals The Vampire Diaries’ inaugural season (after accounting for general decline) at a spectacular for the CW 1.03
Potential for Major Deviation: Average
Supernatural (1.00 Last Year)
Lead-in: The Flash
Lead-out: Local Programming
Episode Order: 22-24 episodes
Competition: Marvel's Agents of Shield, NCIS New Orleans, Marry Me/About a Boy and New Girl/The Mindy Project
The Pros:
• After defying the odds in Season 8 and going + 25% when moving off Fridays in what was widely regarded as a hugely successful season, Supernatural managed to do even better next season, growing by 8% from that already fantastic year on Wednesdays. Can we really rule out another explosion?
• While the entire CW slate was falling apart during last Spring (including fellow mega hits The Vampire Diaries, Arrow and The Originals), Supernatural held steady on Tuesdays and barely blinked, even finishing with a finale that was up year to year. That’s a hell of a trend.
• The Originals was clearly a great pairing, but so was Arrow a year ago and that show should have a pretty close skew from that of The Flash. That means there is compatibility with the lead-in again and if The Flash happens to be even higher rated than The Originals and Arrow were in their inaugural seasons, Supernatural may come upwards with it.
The Cons:
• The hour is definitely more competitive for this show now than it was a year ago now that Agents of Shield has moved down an hour. That show is certain to share more audience with good old Supernatural than the comedies did last year
• This is kind of a personal theory of mine but I do think it’s possible that if The Flash is as big of a hit as I am expecting while Monday is bleeding that the CW sends Supernatural to Mondays to patch things up and reunite with old companion show The Originals while allowing The Flash to lead into something new like iZombie or The Messengers. While still certain to improve the Monday 9pm hour for the CW, I do believe Supernatural would take a hit in that case, if only because that’s what almost always seems to happen with in-season moves.
The Verdict: I am still not quite able to explain what happened for the show to explode in such a big way this year. Then again, this show and its ratings history has been so individual and rare that maybe I am not supposed to understand. I do have to ask though if a 10 year old show can really keep this up? I would feel very inclined to rule out another year of straight growth but the pairing with The Flash is such a good thing that it may complicate the equation. I am going with it ultimately dropping a bit, but still beating the overall decline.
The Guess: 0.92 (-8%), and equals its post Arrow average from two years ago
Potential for Major Deviation: Average
Now it's time for you to make your predictions! Click HERE to submit your predictions!
What did you think of these predictions? Do you agree with my thoughts? Share your predictions and thoughts below on the comment sections!
Also, what are your viewing plans for Tuesdays during this fall? Personally, I will be watching a lot and from all the 5 networks. Comedy wise, I am very excited about Selfie and Manhattan Love Story and I will continue with New Girl and About a Boy. I've also binge watched The Mindy Project this summer and I really liked it so that one is on my rotation as well! Drama wise, it is going to be The Flash, Marve's Agents of Shield and Person of Interest! Like I've said, a lot! What about you?
Thank you for reading and participating ;) I will be back tomorrow with the Wednesday ones, at the end of the day!
With AoS moving to a different timeslot, I hope that The Flash can hold its own against NCIS and I have a feeling it will.
ReplyDeleteI'm not a comedy person or an NCIS person so Tuesdays are not too bad I'll watch/DVR The Flash and The Voice at 8:00, and watch/DVR Supernatural and AOS at 9:00. Person of Interest has 10:00 all to itself. I used to watch Chicago Fire, but it lost me last season. I'm not sure why, but it did. I can't explain Supernatural's surge either. Many long time fans, at least online, were dissatisfied with the season, but apparently it's pulling in enough new viewers that it didn't matter. It is a show that inspires great loyalty too. I think you may be right about them moving it to Mondays. I was surprised they didn't do it to start the season, but they may have wanted to give The Flash whatever boost it can get from Supernatural. I know lead out isn't as big a factor as lead in, I also know Supernatural seems to boost nights, so it seems to be helpful to companion shows.
ReplyDeleteSimilar opinions for the majority of the shows too.
ReplyDeleteStarting with ABC, they'll still have a tough job to revamp their tuesdays and SHIELD will be their only solid player, I predict it will be down a bit more, but just because the comparsion starts with its huge premiere numbers, I find it a better fit for the 9 PM slot, but it has a reasonable chance of being surrounded by flops, since Selfie, Manhattan Love Story and Forever will fight to be ABC's first cancelation and my final bet is on the second, fortunatelly it self-started last season anyway. I expect Selfie to be a bit lower, close to 1.3, spot on about Manhattan and Forever (which should be switched with Castle), given SHIELD's lead in and the monday premiere, I doubt it'll pull a Lucky 7, but it could easily leave by midseason, staying only if ABC doesn't find anything to replace and considers that the 8 PM hour will be even worse (wtf were they doing scheduling two new comedies there?)
CBS is boring, all about league-average, NCIS and POI will be around there, I'm gonna bet on 12% for NCIS and 14% for POI, NCIS:NO will probably be NCIS minus 2-4 tenths.
On NBC, I kind of expect The Voice to start its fall after peaking in 2012 and 2013. A 20% loss for The Voice from last fall puts it at 2.93, considering a 60% retention, that puts Marry Me at 1.76 and Boy will probably shed around 2-3 tenths from it, but considering NBC's current comedy development (Marry Me will see a second season unless it pulls a Go On and they placed Bad Judge and A to Z on thursdays) I still expect it to be the first NBC comedy since Community to see a 3rd season. Chicago Fire will probably lose around 10%, I just don't guarantee a below-league-average drop because it'll be compared to weeks when it aired after the Voice (the entire fall 2013).
Bold prediction on FOX: Mindy will outrate New Girl, I expect New Girl slump to continue and produce awful results, wouldn't rule out a 30+%-esque drop, Mindy will shed a lot less and manage to survive if FOX values its W18-34 (this is also valid for NG) and it goes even lower when it comes to their scripted offerings.
On CW, I was going to say that Flash's 1.03 could be a bit optmistic than I saw that Arrow averaged a 1.05, I'm still unsure if a CW show will average above a 1.0 next season, TVD sank and their spring Slump was terrible, but given that Flash's premiere will match or come close to Arrow's, it could be the highest rated show on CW, I'm going to say it scores between 0.95 and 1.00, Supernatural performing similar to 2012-13 seems reasonable.
PS: just an observation Manhattan Love Story timeslot and network are wrong
PS2: not a scripted show, but any predictions for FOX's Utopia? I'm inclined to believe it'll bomb, but could it surprise everybody and become a solid show for them?
I love Karen Gillian but Selfie isn't going to work.I am not going to pin up my hopes on it.
ReplyDeleteThe Flash premiere is going to be big for CW.If the quality is good, people will stick around.It can be another show on CW (Arrow) that has quality writing and can bring in the numbers.
OK, so Tuesday's are harder than Monday's for me because there are more shows I watch....
ReplyDeleteFirst - shows I don't watch and predicted a small drop just cuz that sounds about right: New Girl, The Mindy Project, and Chicago Fire.
Second - shows I have no intention of watching so put them in the 1.5 area because I really have no idea how they will fare: Marry Me, Selfie and Manhattan Love Story.
NCIS Mother Ship has been in my binge watch the DVD's pile for a couple seasons now but I have no doubt that it will continue to dominate with only a small drop from last year's average. I agree that NCIS: NO is going to help create new buzz around the original. Scott Bakula is a strong lead and will attract eyeballs simply by name recognition. So, strong lead + dominant lead in that is of the same franchise = ratings gold.
I think Agents of Shield is actually going to get a slight uptick from last year. The positive word of mouth after Cap 2 came out had a lot of people commenting that they were going to go back and give S1 another try over the summer so they could be ready for S2. As long as S2 doesn't need to drag because of Avengers 2 like S1 did in preparation for Cap 2, I think it will maintain that slight uptick in viewers.
I'm not sure about Forever. Promos look interesting and I fully intend to check it out but the competition in POI and CF is going to be rough for a freshman show. I'm hoping it will be able to ride the AoS wave some but as you pointed out, this show skews older than AoS so I think it's 13 and out for this show.
About a Boy is adorable but I think it's really going to suffer without The Voice. The comedy competition is easier than last year but I don't know that it's going to make up for the loss of such a strong lead in.
POI - found this show over the summer actually and LOVE IT! I figured it will remain steady year over year. As I mentioned above, I don't think Forever is going to be much of a match for this show. Chicago Fire is still it's toughest competition but I don't think it's in any danger of losing enough viewers to put a 2015-2016 renewal in danger.
Supernatural - I've been with this show for so long it's almost obligatory to watch it now. I may not be happy with how the show has gone since Kripke left, but I am looking forward to the story line that Carver set up for S10 and will absolutely be tuning in for it! I think it will remain steady with a CW solid 0.9-1.0's each week.
The Flash - I am looking forward to this show more than any other show this coming season (although Gotham and Constantine are close behind). I feel like this has the potential to be the mega hit that will replace Supernatural and The Vampire Diaries as the kings of The CW. Grant Gustin is so adorable one can't help but root for this show. With the planned Arrow crossovers around midseason - I think this show will be steady in 0.9-1.0 the whole season with a 2015-2016 renewal a lock.
My Tuesday nights this fall: The Flash, Agents of SHIELD, Person of Interest, saving Supernatural.
ReplyDeleteI heard that Selfie's pilot was really really funny which is a good thing but c'mon ABC, putting this up against "The Flash" is suicide
ReplyDeleteInteresting that you mentioned AoS possibly hurting Supernatural but not vice-versa. Personally, I really want AoS to do well this season and while it has some things going for it as you noted (the better word of mouth, block airing, avoiding competition with NCIS this year), I hope the male-skewing Supernatural doesn't do it any damage. I also have a feeling the new comedies are going to make pretty poor lead-ins.
ReplyDeleteYou took the words about The Flash right out of my mouth haha. The flash is a much more widely known character than the Green Arrow. It had a successful tv show many years ago (with the flash of that show being in the new show). So I think that The Flash might do quite a bit better than Arrow did when it premiered, at least initially. Hopefully this will benefit Supernatural and Arrow (with all of the crossovers planned I think that if The Flash is a hit Arrow will get a nice bump too).
ReplyDeleteWell Arrow premiered with a 1.3. and a 4.14 mil viewers. I think that will be hard to beat on the CW.
ReplyDeleteI wonder how The Flash pilot being leaked will affect the premiere ratings? Hopefully people still tune in and watch it live, even if they watched the leaked version.
ReplyDeleteBut as I just said, The Flash is more of a household name than Green Arrow. So if any show has a chance to beat Arrow's premiere rating it's The Flash.
ReplyDeleteYes that will be tricky for the Pilot episode but I see a 1,00 happennig. But with the high quality of the pilot and all the buzz the show is getting and the post Arrow encore airing I think it will do fine post pilot.
ReplyDeleteMy Tuesday nights this fall are going to be The Flash (loved the pilot, can't wait for the next episode,) AoS, and POI. I hope the Flash has a strong 1st season and I'm going to check Agent Carter during AoS' winter break.
ReplyDeleteI don't know it all depends. Yes the Flash is a more popular character in the comics. But that doesn't mean it will translate into the ratings.
ReplyDeleteI seen some annoyed Arrow fans regarding the Flash. Especially after the SDCC.
I hope people tune in. Especially because the leaked pilot isn't the final version. It seems they cut some scenes, extended others and added some new stuff.
ReplyDeleteOn Tuesdays I will be watching the full NBC lineup and recording Utopia and The Flash. I really hope Marry Me does well it looks hilarious. I also hope About a Boy and Chicago Fire hold up. I don't have high hopes for Utopia but I'm going to check it out.
ReplyDeleteI really hope Marry Me is a hit; the pilot was outright amazing and I can see it developing into the great comedy Happy Endings was. The Voice is certainly going to help, I just hope the audience sticks later on.
ReplyDeleteI have no hopes on Selfie, I just don't see it being a revelation ratings wise, but I'm up to be surprised.
As for New Girl... the fall numbers went as low as 1.1! New Girl always shoots up in the fall with bigger numbers than the previous spring, but man, this is the show's last chance. It's probably going to premiere to 2.0 and if they don't step it up, they are going to lose their last chance to making a show that's going to stick and then it either ends this year or the next one (and the latter is a very optimistic scenario)
Tuesday is Supernatural for me, but POI, SHIELD, Flash, both NCISs, and Justified will go to the HOPPER.
ReplyDeleteOnce again I pretty much agree with yours. My only main deviations are for The CW. I guess that I'm thinking that The Flash's household name might give it a bigger boost than what Arrow got for its first season. I also think Supernatural might benefit from that, as well as what most fans would argue as a better plot this year. However it's hard to tell with Tuesday night CW, the amount of pre-emptions that The CW got on Tuesday last year was astounding. For the last couple of months The Originals and Supernatural were pre-empted more than airing without any pre-emptions. I know that The CW had a big problem with pre-emptions last year, but there seemed to be far more on Tuesdays. Anyway, here are my predictions haha
ReplyDeleteSelfie: 1.7
Manhattan Love Story: 1.3
S.H.I.E.L.D: 1.9
Forever: 1.4
Marry Me: 1.8
About a Boy: 1.4
Chicago Fire: 1.7
New Girl: 1.36
Mindy: 1.19
NCIS: 2.4
NCIS NO: 2.2
POI: 1.6
The Flash: 1.21
Supernatural: 1.08
What? Why? What happened at SDCC?
ReplyDeleteNothing really major. I think the problem is that a certain Arrow character was way to present in the Flash interviews. And apparently there is a theory going on that she will mostly be used to establish the Barry/Iris/Eddie triangle. People weren't happy about that.
ReplyDeleteOnly three shows are on my list, and to all of them I wish all the possible good luck.
ReplyDeletePoE is my No1 network show, and I agree completely with you on both the possible good and bad signs. I hope that the strong serialization will attract people who are bored with the procedurals, and those ones who felt the show's strong arcs too demanding had already left it. The numbers are not exactly strong and with this season CBS had the episode count for the syndicate airing, so I can imagine that this season will be its last.
Marvel Shield I would like to be as good as it was in the second half of the season. The latest episodes merged the storytelling, the action and the good oneliners very well, so they "just" need to carry on - I hope they will do. Maybe the hit of the Guardians of the Galaxy convinced the execs that it's no harm in self-irony and embracing a parodistic approach when something is so superhuman.
Forever is the only new show on this day to me, mainly for Ioan Gruffudd. From the teaser it seems that it also had some sarcastic humor, so in theory they can go well with MAoS. Would be glad to find a replacement for Castle, I don't mind if they won't push the romantic line too much. (They will, this is ABC, but anyhow.)
The Tuesday fall shows that will be canceled are, in my opinion, Manhattan Love Story and Forever. Here are my predictions:
ReplyDeleteSelfie: Premieres to 1.7+, average of 1.6
Manhattan Love Story: Premiere 1.3+, average 1.1
Agents of SHIELD: I am unsure how it will do with such a weak lead-in. I think it will premiere to a 2.2+ and settles around 2.0
Forever: It seems somewhat compatible with SHIELD but I'm not buying it. Because it will premiere after DWTS, it will likely premiere to a 1.7+, but I think the season's average will be a 1.2.
Marry Me: Another Voice-fueled comedy which is bound to get renewed. Premiere 2.0+, average 1.8.
About a Boy: Will drop because it won't have a direct Voice lead-in, but I still think it will do decent. Premiere 1.6+, average 1.5.
Chicago Fire: Don't think it will drop hard, it has proved it can survive on its own. Premiere 1.9+, average 1.8.
New Girl: Increased competition won't help. Premiere 1.5+, average 1.4
The Mindy Project: I think it will do better than Manhattan Love Story. Premiere 1.4+, average 1.2
NCIS: When it's up against The Voice, it won't do great numbers (sadly). Premiere 2.7+, average of 2.6.
NCIS: New Orleans: Premieres to 2.5+, average will be 2.3
Person of Interest: A big drop seems unlikely. Premiere 1.9+, average 1.8.
The Flash: Has everything going for it. Premiere 1.1+, average 0.9
Supernatural: Premiere 1.0+, average 0.9
Personally, I will be watching NCIS, NCIS: New Orleans and probably The Flash. One of these days I will try Person of Interest but that would require some catch-up first.
Thanks again for all the enthusiasm and involvement with all the posts, I really enjoy reading your take on all the shows and your predictions.
ReplyDeleteAs you've said, we're pretty much in agreement but some quick takes:
- I actually disagree with you for saying that ABC's scheduling of two comedies there was a bad idea. They are clearly invested in keeping a 4th comedy hour and this was by far the best place for it. Not only doesn't it have comedy competition (which is far more important for comedies than for dramas because usually comedies have more limited appeal to audiences) but it also doesn't really affect anything else since Shield is a self starter like you've said. I think it's a worthy risk to take for them. This being said, I do agree that Selfie/Manhattan Love Story and Forever will be competing for who gets axed first in favor of The Whispers. I tend to think that launching a new show in the 8pm hour in the spring plus some promise from Selfie will lead them to stick with the comedies and axe Forever but that's just a guess.
- I agree about CBS being boring, it was actually hard for me to write those lol
- Regarding NBC, I agree that The Voice has probably peaked but I think you are way too pessimistic expecting a 20% drop. I imagine it taking a league average drop is slighly above but not a double league average drop IMO. I am also far from sure that Marry Me gets a second season. I think it will have very high expectations going for it and it has SO many comedies waiting to get that slot that it will really have to perform. So I am not sure if it really does well enough to hang in there and get a second season, especially come winter when it has a different lead-in
- I don't think Mindy beating New Girl is hard to imagine. After all, that's what happened in the finale. I was tempted to make that prediction myself, but I was undecided so I had both tying.
- Full agreement on the CW
PS1: Thanks, I've corrected it now!
PS2: I am very much inclined to believe it will bomb. I think there is a chance the show grabs the BB audience (btw CBS would be smart to use BB against it in the weeks it has to move it due to TNF to prevent sampling) but I am not buying it. Having part of it airing on Fridays also seems a very bad move IMO.
Hey @Lola KH! No submission of Tuesday predictions? I am looking forward to them, especially now that you've already started with the Monday ones!
ReplyDeleteWell I like to think Selfie still has a fighting chance! But then again I wanted to think the same of Trophy Wife last year so maybe I am just a hopeless optimistic!
I agree about The Flash ;)
Hey @Emma! Thank you for the continued interest and participation, I appreciate it!
ReplyDeleteI think we agree on the most points but a few comments here and there:
- I don't see Agents of Shield getting an uptick because those initial episodes will inevitably be down a lot and they will weight considerably in the year to year comparisons. I think the winter and spring episodes could be up to even though which would be a HUGE positive for the show!
- THANK YOU for saying that About a Boy is adorable! I really like that show but it seems so underrated here, it gets literally no love at all, I wish more people would watch it, it's really good. I also think it will suffer but I am cautiously optimistic it can do "Ok" and get enough for a second season.
- POI is indeed an excellent show, I am glad you are enjoying it!
- The Flash is probably the easiest bet for renewal out of the entire crop of new shows this year (though maybe not even as much as Arrow was because the cw was in such a bad shape back then)
Thanks for sticking around for these ;)
ReplyDeleteAhah your experience with Supernatural is funny because it mirrors (part) of mine! I had never watched and two summers ago or so I decided to give it a try. I binge watched the first half of Season 1 and I like what I saw but as regular season started I didn't have the time anymore so I put it on pause. Then this past Christmas break I started it again and I got super addicted and watched the second half of season 1 and the entire season 2 very quickly. I really liked it, despite being indeed mostly case of the week. But the fact that you liked so much season 3 and say that you love it now is awesome, really makes me excited to watch it, even if I have no idea when that will be with so much that I watch already ahah!
Hey there! Thanks for stopping by ;)
ReplyDeleteI've watched the pilot (even against my better judgment because I don't like to then wait so much for the second episode) and I really liked it. I never outright love comedy pilots because I tend to enjoy them much more when I already love the characters but it was still very good as far as pilots go and the leads were great!
Selfie against Flash is not really a major issue IMO. In fact, I would argue that the big 4 don't really need to worry much (if at all) about the cw when scheduling. You could argue that Selfie against The Voice is a MUCH riskier proposition!
I don't know, I think AoS initial episodes will be up fro the 2.0 the finale scored. So many of the people I have talked to in person and online have said how excited they are for S2 to start and got caught up on S1 over the summer solely so they could watch S2 live. I don't think it's going to be a huge increase, but a slight increase to say a 2.2 or 2.3 wouldn't be out of the realm of possibility. Maybe I'm just wishful thinking here ;-)
ReplyDeleteI like Minnie Driver so I tuned in to About a Boy because her name was attached to it - the show gives me my weekly "Awwww" moments.
Hey there Alex! Thank you for also stopping by this one! Well, you are right that one could think that Supernatural would also negatively impact Shield and that's probably right to some degree but I just don't really consider the CW as competition to the main 4. If I am considering ratings as small as those from the CW, I find it stupid not to also consider all those other cable channels that quite regularly beat the CW and should therefore be regarded as higher competition. But yeah Supernatural is high rated enough and likely has enough overlap to should have been considered as a con against Shield. At the end of the day though I don't think it will move the needle significantly and I still expect Shield to do well (even with the comedies as poor lead-ins, I don't think Shield is lead-in dependent).
ReplyDeleteAgree about The Flash ;)
Oh absolutely I also think MAOS will be up from the finale. Remember however that the premiere last year was a a 4.7 and the second episode had a 3.3. I don't think the first episodes of the season will come anywhere close to that's why I was saying they will heavily weight against the season as a whole to grow. But because the premiere was so high I don't think those year to year comparisons will be meaningful at all, the late fall comparisons will matter much more.
ReplyDeleteIt's been proven that pilots being available early (as long as the pilot is good) is a good way to build buzz and doesn't affect the ratings at all. The amount of people that actually watch the pilots online that are from the US, that would watch the pilot live otherwise AND that have Nielsen boxes is very tiny. If you look at the number of torrents and streams online you can get a sense of how they can't even amount to a 0.1 most of the times.
ReplyDeleteAnother way to think about it is that networks aren't stupid (well, not that much at least) and they wouldn't sabotage themselves like that by releasing the pilots early (yes the flash was leaked so it wasn't their intention, but you got my point).
Thanks for stopping by!
ReplyDeleteI think Scandal is needed on Thursdays for ABC and it gives them a great opportunity to market Shonda Thursdays like they've been doing. Remember that GA will not be around forever so they need to groom Scandal to take over Thursdays once that's gone. I also don't think Scandal has anything to do with MAOS so I don't think it would be a good idea, as nights should have some sort of cohesion. Just my thoughts ;)
Those will also be my three dramas on the night, even though I will also be watching a number of comedies on top of that! And yes, I will also try out Agent Carter in the winter, as well as The Whispers !
ReplyDeleteThanks for stopping by ;)
Thanks for stopping by ;)
ReplyDeleteI will only watch About a Boy from the NBC lineup for now but I may end up trying Marry Me later if ratings and reviews are there. The trailer just didn't grab me for now. And I was a huge Happy Endings fan (RIP, this is too sad!).
Hey Pablo! Thanks for continuing to stop by and for the participation!
ReplyDeleteMarry Me is an odd case for me. I was a big fan of Happy Endings but I really wasn't grabbed by the pilot, at all. I may binge watch it later if the ratings and the reviews are there but I will skip it at the moment (I already have way too many comedies on Tuesdays anyway).
I agree that this is probably a crucial season for New Girl especially since syndication won't continue to be there to save it once it hits the 88 episodes this year. We should not forget however the insane skew that show has and its strength in W18-34, even when it was hitting those bad ratings in the spring. It will always be a more valuable show than we give it credit for by looking only at A18-49 numbers.
You have a busy night there, good luck with it! And thanks for stopping by!
ReplyDeleteI didn't realize it premiered at a 4.7! Yea, that is going to be hard to beat - I was basing my "slight uptick" off the season finale, not the season average - oopsies :-)
ReplyDeleteNo worries ;)
ReplyDeleteThanks again for the continued interest and participation!
ReplyDeleteGood point about the pre-emptions, the CW really seems to have suffered with them last year and Tuesdays on particular, I agree. We will however have to agree to disagree on The CW here because as well as I think The Flash will be doing I cannot imagine a CW show currently averaging a 2.1, that would require quite a few 1.5s or so in the fall and I don't see it happening. I would LOOOOVE to be proven wrong here though so let's hope you are correct and I am down ;)
Thank you for the continued interest in these ;)
ReplyDeleteIn regards to POI, I doubt it's the final season. It's tough to predict CBS because they have so few constants now with the changing up of the hours of comedy and reality and so much depends on how the new class does but I could see POI hanging on Tuesdays for one or two mores year before moving to Sundays to replace CSI/The Good Wife for one or two more years. CBS will have room for it as long as the ratings don't collapse. Good point you've made about hoping that all the casual viewers who didn't like the serialized arc having left already, I certainly hope so!
Thanks again for the interest ;) I also agree that those two will be cancelled but I will say that Marry Me, About a Boy and especially Selfie are also very much bubble shows, and god knows about the FOX comedies.
ReplyDeleteI don't know why people talk about voice fueled comedies being bound to get renewed. Go On was cancelled in that situation and About a Boy was renewed so really it's a 50-50 situation there IMO. I think that's my major disagreement with you, other than that I agree for the most part with the actual predictions ;)
its going too be the Flash and AoS sorry SPN you broke my heart last season and I am sorry but I have no faith left in the show It hurts too say but I just sick of the bad writing and the treatment of Sam this last 2 season's I just really can not take it any more I will try too watch but my heart is not in it anymore.
ReplyDeleteMy pleasure! Looking forward to see your predictions for the remainings days of the week!
ReplyDeleteI can tell you that, by watching Marry Me's pilot, the show gets it right from the start, but it's always better to stuck up on some episodes before getting into a show so that you can judge it with multiple episodes to decide if it is for you or not instead of being in the bubble for weeks.
As for New Girl, yeah, it is a matter of how much the 18-34 numbers stick with show; surely a drop from 2.9 to 1.1 also reflects a drop on the 18-34 numbers; they may be still strong enough to keep it going, but for how long? At some point New Girl could deliver 0.6 in 18-49 like Glee! And then not even 18-34 demos is going to save it. So now it is the moment of true for New Girl, but I don't see it lasting beyond season 5.
I'll just be watching Agents of S.H.I.E.L.D. on broadcast Tuesdays this season. It didn't blow me away last season but I enjoyed it.
ReplyDeleteI won't be trying any new shows on Tuesdays and I won't be watching Supernatural this season.
I think Sefie ends up on the bubble too, but will ultimately be renewed because once again ABC can't cancel everything. Since I predict all the other new comedies will be canceled, I think Selfie will get a second season.
ReplyDeleteRegarding About A Boy and Marry Me: OK, so they don't have The Voice as lead-in during winter, but I believe it will have established a pretty good audience by then. Especially because Marry Me seems to have good critical reception, and if the audience that watched after The Voice like it, they will stick around. The Blacklist didn't drop that much when The Voice was absent, and regained its audience when The Voice returned. Maybe I am just too positive about post-The Voice timeslots, but I don't think Marry Me/About A Boy will be the next Go On.
Yes I agree with you, I also tend to prefer to stack up episodes, especially with comedies as I feel I enjoy them more once I get into the "feel"/tone of the show, which is hard if you do it on a weekly basis. Of course when stuff is premiering I can't contain myself and I watch them right away, but well.
ReplyDeleteI actually predict a great season for ABC as a whole since most of their veterans had great springs and the moves they've now made appear to have been very strategically. So I don't think they will be in a situation in which "they cannot cancel everything" this time around. It's obviously too early to dwell into predictions, but I could see the entire Monday, Sunday, Thursday and Friday lineup (except maybe Cristella) having the ratings to be renewed, as well as Shield and the first 3/4 of the Wednesday block. That would only leave Blackish, Cristella, Nashville, the Tuesday hour comedy and Forever current timeslots as free to launch new shows. But of course, it's still very early for any of this, we shall see.
ReplyDeleteAs for the NBC comedies, I am still not convinced. The Voice leadouts so far: Revolution, Smash, The Blacklist, Go On and About a Boy (not counting Chicago Fire since that one was a sophmore already with an audience). About a Boy we have yet to see how it will hold sans The Voice but out of all the others, only The Blacklist has survived sans the voice and it still had a pretty sizable drop (it just happened to be too high in advance so to have a lot of room to fall from). So I don't think it's far fetched to imagine Marry Me (and AaB) flopping as well, the whole "have established a pretty good audience by then" really hasn't worked out so far.
Hey there thanks for reading ;)
ReplyDeleteAs far as I am concerned, Flash and Aos are great picks so there's that!
I think Shield is a great choice for what's it's worth ;)
ReplyDeleteThanks for stopping by this one!
the Flash looks great and be fun too watch and AOS it sounds like it could be good I want too watch Superhero's that want to fight for good and not bitch about stuff.
ReplyDeleteHey, it just occurred to me - imagine if AoS hadn't moved an hour later. It would be going head-to-head with The Flash. The DC vs. Marvel wars would officially go off the rails!
ReplyDeleteMy Tueadays will remain the same as last season: Chicago Fire. I watched POI through 2 seasons and left when the last 9 episodes of season 2 were unentertaining and it was announced that they were adding Sashi to the line up. Not sorry I left. I know plenty more who watched season 3 and were unhappy and say they are now done due to the refocus. So I predict viewership will fall a bit also, possibly more then the suggested 10%. As for the other shows in the line up, nothing new looks good and any thing else old I never had a desire to watch.
ReplyDeleteAgreed. I think the 10% predicted drop is extraordinarily generous. People who like serialized shows watch them from the beginning -- and anyone who goes back to S1 of POI will either hate it because it's NOT serialized from ep 1 through the middle of S2, or will love it for the complex characters and then hate it when they realize they've been bait-and-switched. I predict it loses 15 - 18% and is moved to Sunday nights either when the mid-season replacements come in or at the end of the S4.
ReplyDeleteAt first I confused about the pairing of Supernatural and The Flash.
ReplyDeleteI would've thought that having Arrow as the lead-in for "Flash" would've made the most sense as "Arrow" is a pretty established hit on it's own and "Flash" being a spin-off for "Arrow" - I would've put them together, used Arrow as a launcher.
Then again, I would've done that with "The Vampire Diaries" and "The Originals", had them together on the same night and had "The Vampire Diaries" be the lead-in for "The Originals" and used TVD to launched TO.
I guess I'm just a little old school, when shows and their "offspring"/"spin-offs" were together on the same nights, like Buffy and Angel, and the combination seemed to work well enough for those shows.
But then again, over the years, Supernatural has undeniably been the most powerful launcher that the network has ever had. Smallville was good too but it was already on it's way out when the CW was formed and Supernatural has been the CW powerhouse for many years now, it's ratings continuing to rise, as a 10 year old show are unheard of in the TV industry. Almost every show I have ever seen launched by Supernatural has become a multi-year success.
So I can understand now the reason of the pairing of "Flash" and "Supernatural" and I really think that the combination will do extremely well for both of them.
I AM slightly concerned about AOS simply because I am a HARDCORE SPN fan but I too also watch AOS, so having to choose one to DVR, I'd choose AOS but I can imagine how alot of fans are going to be torn between those two shows especially.