Hey guys!
I am sorry for the late post today but I was traveling during the day and didn't get the chance to get this one up sooner. I will leave it tomorrow until late in the day before I upload the Wednesday post! I also apologize in advance for how lengthy this one ended up being, I think it is one of the heaviest days! I would also like to thank everyone that participated so far, both through comments and by submitting their predictions! I encourage you all to do the same!
Anyway, back to business! For those of you that are new to the drill, I welcome you to the Fall TV Preview initiative, in which we try to see which one of us is best with the crystal ball in previewing the rating for our favorite shows in the fall! I share my predictions with some analysis and then I invite you to submit your own! Hopefully, at the end of the season, we can all have fun comparing the results!
Previous posts (The prediction forms will be open until the week before the start of the official season which is when some of the stuff starts to premiere, so feel free to go back and submit your predictions):
- Monday Shows
Tuesdays
Selfie (New Show)
Lead-in: Local Programming
Lead-out: Manhattan Love Story
Episode Order: 13 (potentially 22-24) episodes
Competition: The Voice, NCIS, Utopia and The Flash
The Pros:
• The show is gathering a very good amount of critical support and appears to be high on ABC’s promotional efforts.
• In the age of social media exploding, I think there is some serious potential for a show that focuses on it to hit big time, regardless of whether or not this is the show that is able to do it.
• Emily Kapnek, the show’s creator, has proven to be able to create hit shows before, seeing how Suburgatory was pretty successful during its first season.
• No comedy competition on the hour.
The Cons:
• The competition is fierce, particularly on the NBC front where The Voice will held hostage all those W18-34 that this show wants to capture.
• ABC has a really terrible track record at launching comedies that are not family focused, so can Selfie really become the exception?
• Self-starting a night like ABC is asking Selfie to do requires a tremendous amount of buzz. Does Selfie have it?
The Verdict: I am at such a loss here. I want to believe the show could survive on its merits but history doesn’t really support that. We could nitpick how hard the competition and the timeslot really are here but I suspect it comes down to something far more basic which is whether or not there will be enough interest here. And that ultimately comes down to a matter of guessing and yours is good as mine, I don’t really have a compelling argument to make about it. Mine is that it goes middle of the road kind of way. No hit, no flop, sits on the bubble for the entire season and ultimately gives a nail bitter at season’s end.
The Guess: 1.51
Potential for Major Deviation: High
Manhattan Love Story (New Show)
Lead-in: Selfie
Lead-out: Marvel's Agents of Shield
Episode Order: 13 (potentially 22-24) episodes
Competition: The Voice, NCIS, Utopia and The Flash
The Pros
• Hmmm….I suppose if Selfie explodes out of the gate Manhattan Love Story can easily be carried along for the ride.
The Cons
• All of ABC’s promotional efforts on this hour, as well as media buzz, seem to be about Selfie. Manhattan Love Story seems to be lost in the shuffle and that could easily translate in the ratings.
• The show doesn’t really have a big selling point that will guarantee its sampling (i.e. no big stars, no big names behind it, no hot topic)
• The timeslot is pretty bad competition wise and there’s just too much uncertainty about Selfie to make any comments lead-in wise.
The Verdict: I happen to be quite interested in this show and looking forward to it but if there is one word that I think would describe it for now is buzz-less. Indeed, Manhattan Love Story's biggest challenge may be to bring enough attention to itself to guarantee that it is even sampled to begin with. As much as I think I will like it, I am just not confident on that happening. I think it will end up being all about retention from Selfie. I say it retains about 70%. The problem is that Selfie’s numbers are not likely to be high enough to sustain this retention. I say it’s one (probably full because ABC will want to try Selfie out and has nothing else to pair it with) and done.
The Guess: 1.06
Potential for Major Deviation: Average
Marvel's Agents of Shield (2.39 Last Year)
Lead-in: Manhattan Love Story
Lead-out: Forever
Episode Order: 22 episodes
Competition: NCIS New Orleans, Marry Me & About a Boy, New Girl & The Mindy Project, Supernatural
The Pros
• For all the talk that Shield had about dropping unstoppably, the show was remarkably stable in the second half of the season! During the last 13 episodes (!) of the season, the show didn’t move from the 1.8-2.2 area at all. What’s more, during the show’s final 8 episodes, the needle didn’t move from the 1.9-2.1 area. That’s as stable as it gets!
• I don’t really like to bring these sort of arguments into here, but since it is such a general consensus, it seems pretty worth mentioning how the show got its act together in the second half creatively wise. Maybe the positive word of mouth can bring some of those initial viewers back.
• Moving to 9pm means exposure to a higher viewing hour!
• The 9pm move also means that Shield no longer has to face NCIS head to head, with whom it clearly shared an audience (as seen by the spikes in episodes in which NCIS was in reruns). As an additional bonus, no facing the almighty The Voice either!
• Shield’s scheduling of episodes in winter was comically bad as it appeared that ABC was simply throwing up a dice to decide when to air the next original or the next repeat. With Agent Carter now filling in, Shield will enjoy a much better schedule with the split season treatment that did wonders for Once Upon a Time and others this year.
The Cons
• If Manhattan Love Story flops hard, it may very well end up being a weaker lead-in than local programming was last year.
• Shield has eroded so much of its initial audience that it could be that there really aren’t enough new viewers still interested in trying it again.
• As well as it does throughout the year, there is virtually no chance Shield beats those early fall episodes from last year, which means year to year comparisons will always look worse than they are in reality.
The Verdict: I am fairly optimistic about this and I think there are plenty of good enough reasons for that. The timeslot is much better in more than one way, the trend during winter-spring episodes was remarkably stable, the show really seemed to get its act together creatively and the split season treatment worked so well for ABC this year. I think these are all major points so I think Shield is headed for a nice, rebound season!
The Guess: 2.07 (-13%)
Potential for Major Deviation: Average
Forever (New Show)
Lead-in: Marvel's Agents of Shield
Lead-out: Local Programming
Episode Order: 13 (potentially 22-24) episodes
Competition: Person of Interest, Chicago Fire and Sons of the Anarchy/ Justified
The Pros
• Agents of Shield is a decent lead-in to have.
• This show appears to be a very natural fit with the Dancing with the Stars audience, so a preview after it could really do wonders for it before it premieres on its regular timeslot on Tuesday.
• The concept may be surprisingly broad enough to attract a wide range of different audiences from genre fans to procedural fans.
The Cons
• Agents of Shield may be an okay lead-in to have but its M18-34 heavy audience will promptly reject this old-skewing procedural, which means it won’t do Forever much good.
• Tuesdays at 10pm is actually a very competitive hour, seeing how both CBS and NBC have some of their very best 10pm players in the hour with Person of Interest and Chicago Fire. Besides, even cable throws some heavy lifters here, particularly during fall when Sons of the Anarchy regularly beat the broadcasters last season.
• A show that’s so clearly trying to appeal to so many different audiences always runs the inevitable risk of not being able to appeal to a single audience at the end.
• The Whispers is waiting in the can and that show just appears to be a much more logical fit with Agents of Shield.
The Verdict: I am not sold here. It could work and I would not be surprised because it really does have some things going for it, but I am going by the book here and saying that the bad timeslot situation will prevail here. This show would likely have had a shot as a DWTS lead out but as a Shield leadout and against POI and Chicago Fire? I don’t think so. I say 13 and out, with The Whispers taking over at midseason.
The Guess: 1.33
Potential for Major Deviation: Average
Marry Me (New Show)
Lead-in:The Voice/?/The Voice
Lead-out: About a Boy
Episode Order: 13 (potentially 22-24) episodes
Competition: New Girl, NCIS New Orleans, Marvel's Agents of Shield and Supernatural
The Pros
• The Voice as a lead-in is the best gift NBC can give to a new show.
• Although the hour is competitive, at least this year there won’t be a 3 way clash of single cams comedies. New Girl will be the only comedy competition and that show is not exactly a bonafire hit right now.
• Plenty of promotional push.
The Cons
• The Voice may be the lead-in of this show during fall but something else will have to take over the 8pm hour come winter. That ended up being Go On’s death sentence so Marry Me certainly runs the same risk.
• While there is plenty of talent involved, most of these people are associated with cut shows like Happy Endings that were not exactly ratings hits.
• New Girl may not be a powerhouse anymore in the main demo but its strength in W18-34 is still nothing to be shy about.
• NBC has more comedies in reserve than I have any memory of which means Marry Me, which will take up what is by far the best slot for a comedy, will be on a very short leash from early on.
The Verdict: I don’t have a strong opinion here. I don’t find the promos very appealing but the voice should at least ensure initial sampling. After that, it really could go either way. I say it does About a Boy type of retention during the fall but collapses during winter prompting NBC to try out one of its many comedies in reserve in the slot come Spring.
The Guess: 1.78
Potential for Major Deviation: Average
About a Boy (1.88 Last Year)
Lead-in:Marry Me
Lead-out: Chicago Fire
Episode Order: 22-24 episodes
Competition: The Mindy Project, NCIS New Orleans, Marvel's Agents of Shield and Supernatural
The Pros:
• About a Boy has lost its direct the voice lead-in but will still be in the voice orbit which may still prop it up to some extent.
• Having the mindy project as the only comedy competition is considerably easier for About a Boy than it was to have both the goldbergs and new girl.
• About a Boy will get to air in the fall instead of exclusively in the spring so it will enjoy greater viewing levels.
• Its 9h30 finale last year was only down a tenth from the 9h episode. That could mean there is an independent audience watching the show that will stick around for 9h30.
The Cons:
• Loosing the direct voice lead-in will hurt this show big time.
• Last year, the show had the entire NBC promotional machine focused on it during Spring. No such luck this year as the show has pretty much no buzz surrounding it while NBC is far more occupied promoting its new shows (and The Blacklist).
• NBC didn’t bother repeating this show during summer so far. For a show as young as this is, it’s out of sight, out of mind. Whatever audience About a Boy could have had, it may not be loyal enough to withstand such a long hiatus without repeats, on top of a timeslot downgrade move.
• Marry Me as lead-in is a big question mark, because if that show flops, it’s pretty unlikely that About a Boy can self-start by itself at the bottom of the hour.
The Verdict: I don’t think About a Boy’s performance will be anything to write home about, either in the positive or in the negative side. I see it being very much a direct result of whatever Marry Me does in the 9pm hour. I say it does the typical 85% retention in this slot, which could actually be more valuable to NBC than what Marry Me does and allow it to stick around longer, especially considering it has more episodes in the can.
The Guess: 1.52 (-19%)
Potential for Major Deviation: Low
Chicago Fire (2.03 Last Year)
Lead-in: About a Boy
Lead-out: Local Programming
Episode Order: 22-24 episodes
Competition: Person of Interest, Forever and Sons of the Anarchy/Justified
The Pros:
• Chicago Fire was one of the most stable shows airing last year, which is even more impressive due to the fact that it was changing lead-ins quite often (The Voice, The Biggest Loser, Growing Up Fisher, About a Boy). In fact, from episode 3 onwards, it never moved from the 1.7-2.3 radius, which is pretty impressive especially considering the change in lead-ins. What’s more, from episode 12 to 22, the results were always 1.8 or 1.9 except for a 1.7 in one episode. That’s some remarkably stability and a very positive trend!
• The show will get to air after the voice for its first two episodes so that should be good enough to ensure initial tune in for the season!
• With Chicago PD now also part of the rotation, the synergies are limitless for the Dick Wolf empire, including more crossovers which always help these shows.
The Cons:
• Despite the very positive trend, the show’s best results came when following the voice, which will only happen for two episodes this year.
• The timeslot could potentially get more competitive if Forever manages to prove to be at least a better alternative than the flops ABC had there last year.
The Verdict: I am a big buyer when shows give me such a positive trend as Chicago Fire did last year. I was seriously impressed with its capacity to hold its audience even with a much worse lead-in. At one point, the show even pulled off a 1.9 from a very miserable 1.2 from Growing Up Fisher. So I don’t see any reason for Chicago Fire not to have a very good season. I will be surprised if it doesn’t end up outrating the 9pm hour again as was happening in late spring.
The Guess: 1.88 (-7%)
Potential for Major Deviation: Low
New Girl (1.65 Last Year)
Lead-in: Utopia
Lead-out: The Mindy Project
Episode Order: 22-24 episodes
Competition: Marry Me, NCIS New Orleans, Marvel's Agents of Shield and Supernatural
The Pros
• Although I don’t really believe in Utopia working for FOX, that still ought to be a better lead-in than Glee. I mean, how much worse can FOX really do? Additionally, if by any chance Utopia is a surprise hit for FOX, New Girl can catch the wave and benefit from a strong lead-in! (which it hasn’t had since the first half of season 1).
• The Goldbergs ended up a surprisingly strong comedy competition. Now that it’s gone and that the unproven Marry Me is the only comedy competition left, the hour is friendlier for New Girl.
• Not having to face the voice during the fall like it happened last year.
The Cons:
• Did you see those Spring numbers? Yikes… New Girl was trending down FAST and badly last year. Is there really a way to invert or at least stop that? It’s hard to imagine it!
• Utopia may even have better raw numbers than Glee did but its W18-34 audience will be considerably smaller and that was the audience still fueling New Girl last year. On the other hand, chances are that Utopia is still a big flop, even if it is a slightly less embarrassing flop than Glee.
• Even if it didn’t really seem to benefit from it, New Girl got plenty of attention from FOX with the post Superbowl slot. No such luck this year.
• If Marry Me is a surprise hit, New Girl will again find itself facing a very strong comedy competition.
The Verdict: I like this show but I don’t see how something that trended downwards so badly during Spring can suddenly revert that. If a lot of things work well (Utopia being a big hit, Marry Me failing, Mindy gaining a surprising amount of traction and FOX overall gaining some traction) I could see the show recovering but those are too many things for me to bet on. Ultimately, I don’t find any compelling reasons to believe it manages to overcome that lousy trend.
The Guess: 1.21 (-28%)
Potential for Major Deviation: Average
The Mindy Project (1.28 Last Year)
Lead-in: New Girl
Lead-out: Local Programming
Episode Order: 15 episodes
Competition: About a Boy, NCIS New Orleans, Marvel's Agents of Shield and Supernatural
The Pros
• Despite being low, The Mindy Project was at least consistent and didn’t exhibit a very negative downwards trend like New Girl. That could mean there is a loyal audience around willing to stick with it!
• The finale had a surprisingly sizable spike, even flat out beating New Girl for the first time. That could show some promise.
• The Mindy Project had a large chunk of its episodes during spring last year when the viewing levels were at its lowest. This year, if the episode order sticks, chances are that Mindy gets to air exclusively in the fall and winter, which should help the year to year comparisons.
• Critical acclaim really seems to have exploded during the second half of Season 2 for this show. Maybe that could bring in some additional eyeballs.
• Not having to face the voice during the fall like it happened last year.
The Cons
• The Mindy Project was also said to be stable during Season 1 but that didn’t really prevent Season 2 from falling 19%!
• Despite how low it ended the season, New Girl was still a pretty decent lead-in during fall which was helping out The Mindy Project more than we thought. With New Girl collapsing, The Mindy Project comes down right with it.
• Airing that episode order straight through like it seems to be the plan also likely entails some episodes airing out of reruns.
The Verdict: Whenever a show gets to have its finale even year to year, I find that a good sign. In this case particularly it’s even more valuable because of the drastically different lead-in situations. I don’t think The Mindy Project will ever explode to become a hit, but I do think its relative performance this year will look frankly better than it did last fall with everything else in scrambles on this Tuesday mess and Mindy remaining its same old stable.
The Guess: 1.21 (-5%)
Potential for Major Deviation: Low
NCIS (2.81 Last Year)
Lead-in: Local Programming
Lead-out:NCIS New Orleans
Episode Order: 22-24 episodes
Competition: Selfie/Manhattan Love Story, The Voice, Utopia and The Flash
The Pros:
• NCIS took its biggest year to year drop in 11 seasons last year which was when ABC finally had a solid drama in the slot. I don’t think that was any coincidence. With Shield gone from the hour, NCIS has a big chance to recover.
• As nice as the pairing with LA was over the years, New Orleans could bring extra buzz and attention to the night, which could allow the mothership to enjoy some gains as well in the process.
The Cons:
• During the last seasons, NCIS has pretty much up put some fall raw numbers that are in line with those from previous spring. Considering that this spring its decline was greater than usual, that could mean a bad season ahead of it.
• Last year, NCIS had to face the voice during spring only, while this year that show will be there for the entire year.
The Verdict: I do think the spring drops were a bit worrisome but other than that, I think there are compelling reasons to expect an okay season out of NCIS. The pairing with New Orleans should help it out a bit and, most importantly, Agents of Shield leaving the hour should be a major upgrade. I still think it falls a bit more than the overall shows, but not as much as last year.
The Guess: 2.48 (-12%)
Potential for Major Deviation: Low
NCIS: New Orleans (New Show)
Lead-in: NCIS
Lead-out: Person of Interest
Episode Order: 13 (potentially 22-24) episodes
Competition: Marvel's Agents of Shield, Marry Me/About a Boy, New Girl/The Mindy Project and Supernatural
The Pros
• That NCIS-brand
• The highest rated drama CBS has as a lead-in, which also happens to be the most compatible show it could ask for
• Agents of Shield is some solid drama competition, but that’s pretty much it as far as drama competition goes, since both FOX and NBC are going with comedies at this hour
• CBS’ promotional machine is well behind this show.
The Cons
• Agents of Shield really appeared to have put a dent in the mothership ratings last year, so while it is the only drama competition to focus, it’s certainly a worthy one.
• The Voice will air from 8 to 10 in the opening weeks of the season, which could limit the sampling for this show.
The Verdict: I think it will be pretty tough for this one not to make it as it appears to have everything right going for it. I do think that Shield in this hour could prove to be a tougher proposition than it looks, but I imagine the show will have a big enough buffer to withstand that. At the end of the day, I think it does right about what LA would have done, which is a big win considering it frees up that show to help CBS elsewhere.
The Guess: 2.12
Potential for Major Deviation: Average
Person of Interest (1.97 Last Year)
Lead-in: NCIS New Orleans
Lead-out: Local Programming
Episode Order: 22-24 episodes
Competition: Chicago Fire, Forever and Sons of the Anarchy/Justified
The Pros
• If NCIS New Orleans can inject new life into CBS Tuesday, Person of Interest, as its lead-out, is the best show poised to benefit from it.
• The show was pretty stable throughout the season, particularly during Spring, managing to avoid drops of similar magnitude than those from fellow Tuesday shows, NCIS and NCIS Los Angeles. That suggests a positive trend.
The Cons
• Chances are that this hour gets more competitive with Forever in the loop, which should prove to be at least a better alternative than the flops ABC had in there last year.
• Just as easily as New Orleans can reinvigorate the night, it can also prove to be a worse lead-in for POI than LA was last year.
• During its third season, Person of Interest has turned from a procedural with heavily serialized elements to a full fledged serialized show with the occasional filler-procedural episode. That means that it could more easily start eroding viewers like typical serialized shows do in its runs.
The Verdict: Although I am a big fan of the show and of what it did last year, I worry a lot about the effects that the serialization might have on the rating, especially on a CBS environment where serialization isn’t really the norm. On the other hand, the show was pretty stable last year so I don’t find any significant causes for concern. I say it takes an average esque drop.
The Guess: 1.77 (-10%)
Potential for Major Deviation: Low
The Flash (New Show)
Lead-in: Local Programming
Lead-out: Supernatural
Episode Order: 13 (potentially 22-24) episodes
Competition:NCIS, The Voice, Selfie/Manhattan Love Story and Utopia
The Pros
• The Flash has more buzz than any CW show in recent memory that I remember which should at last guarantee its sampling
• As a spinoff from Arrow, there is also a large enough number of viewers that should be willing to check it out.
• The CW is clearly going all-in on this show including practically the entire efforts of the CW’s promotional machine (it’s the first year in a while that the CW premieres only 2 newbies in the fall) and encores after the parent show Arrow during the first two weeks of the season.
• The timeslot has no prohibitive competition, especially in what concerns the M18-34 target demo
• Supernatural as a lead-out has proven to be a powerful advantage for CW newbies.
The Cons
• Although not strong on the M18-34 demo, the timeslot still has big enough players in the forms of NCIS and, especially, The Voice.
The Verdict: I think it’s pretty hard not to feel positive about this one. The night seems perfect for it competition wise (especially since ABC kindly moved Agents of Shield out of the way) and literally every single CW promotional muscle seems to be in service of this show right now. I think it will do great for the CW, quite possibly beating out The Originals average from a year ago, which was already a very successful show.
The Guess: Equals The Vampire Diaries’ inaugural season (after accounting for general decline) at a spectacular for the CW 1.03
Potential for Major Deviation: Average
Supernatural (1.00 Last Year)
Lead-in: The Flash
Lead-out: Local Programming
Episode Order: 22-24 episodes
Competition: Marvel's Agents of Shield, NCIS New Orleans, Marry Me/About a Boy and New Girl/The Mindy Project
The Pros:
• After defying the odds in Season 8 and going + 25% when moving off Fridays in what was widely regarded as a hugely successful season, Supernatural managed to do even better next season, growing by 8% from that already fantastic year on Wednesdays. Can we really rule out another explosion?
• While the entire CW slate was falling apart during last Spring (including fellow mega hits The Vampire Diaries, Arrow and The Originals), Supernatural held steady on Tuesdays and barely blinked, even finishing with a finale that was up year to year. That’s a hell of a trend.
• The Originals was clearly a great pairing, but so was Arrow a year ago and that show should have a pretty close skew from that of The Flash. That means there is compatibility with the lead-in again and if The Flash happens to be even higher rated than The Originals and Arrow were in their inaugural seasons, Supernatural may come upwards with it.
The Cons:
• The hour is definitely more competitive for this show now than it was a year ago now that Agents of Shield has moved down an hour. That show is certain to share more audience with good old Supernatural than the comedies did last year
• This is kind of a personal theory of mine but I do think it’s possible that if The Flash is as big of a hit as I am expecting while Monday is bleeding that the CW sends Supernatural to Mondays to patch things up and reunite with old companion show The Originals while allowing The Flash to lead into something new like iZombie or The Messengers. While still certain to improve the Monday 9pm hour for the CW, I do believe Supernatural would take a hit in that case, if only because that’s what almost always seems to happen with in-season moves.
The Verdict: I am still not quite able to explain what happened for the show to explode in such a big way this year. Then again, this show and its ratings history has been so individual and rare that maybe I am not supposed to understand. I do have to ask though if a 10 year old show can really keep this up? I would feel very inclined to rule out another year of straight growth but the pairing with The Flash is such a good thing that it may complicate the equation. I am going with it ultimately dropping a bit, but still beating the overall decline.
The Guess: 0.92 (-8%), and equals its post Arrow average from two years ago
Potential for Major Deviation: Average
Now it's time for you to make your predictions! Click HERE to submit your predictions!
What did you think of these predictions? Do you agree with my thoughts? Share your predictions and thoughts below on the comment sections!
Also, what are your viewing plans for Tuesdays during this fall? Personally, I will be watching a lot and from all the 5 networks. Comedy wise, I am very excited about Selfie and Manhattan Love Story and I will continue with New Girl and About a Boy. I've also binge watched The Mindy Project this summer and I really liked it so that one is on my rotation as well! Drama wise, it is going to be The Flash, Marve's Agents of Shield and Person of Interest! Like I've said, a lot! What about you?
Thank you for reading and participating ;) I will be back tomorrow with the Wednesday ones, at the end of the day!
