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SpoilerTV - TV Spoilers

Fall TV Preview - Thursdays

24 Aug 2014

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Hey guys!

Once again, I thank everyone who has been participating! I hope this is being as fun for you as it's been for me! I also have got to say that this has turned out to be far more challenging than I thought it would be!

Anyway, back to business! For those of you that are new to the drill, I welcome you to the Fall TV Preview initiative, in which we try to see which one of us is best with the crystal ball in previewing the rating for our favorite shows in the fall! I share my predictions with some analysis and then I invite you to submit your own! Hopefully, at the end of the season, we can all have fun comparing the results!

Previous posts (The prediction forms will be open until the week before the start of the official season which is when some of the stuff starts to premiere, so feel free to go back and submit your predictions):
- Monday Shows
- Tuesday Shows
- Wednesday Shows

    Thursdays

    Grey's Anatomy (2.69 Last Year)

    Timeslot: Thursdays at 8,ABC

    Lead-in: Local Programming

    Lead-out: Scandal

    Episode Order: 22-24 episodes

    Competition: Thursday Night Football/ The Big Bang Theory & The Millers, Bones, The Biggest Looser/?, The Vampire Diaries
    The Pros
    • As part of the ABC’s very much touted Shonda Thursday, Grey’s Anatomy is probably receiving more promotion than it did for the last 4 or 5 years. That’s a win!
    • Considering the flops that ABC placed at 8pm have often gone sub 1, local programming may actually be the strongest lead-in Grey’s Anatomy has had in years!
    • Grey’s likely benefits in opening weeks from facing Thursday Night Football (which it already did last year) and not the regular CBS lineup.

    The Cons
    • 8pm is a lower viewed hour than 9pm is, especially in the Spring.
    • The competition is stronger in literally all fronts than it was last year, as The Big Bang Theory is a much bigger beast than Two and a Half Men, NBC is actually competent at this hour, Bones will be a worthier opponent than Glee and Rake were last year and even the CW happens to have a strong W18-34 draw in the form of The Vampire Diaries!
    • Grey’s Anatomy is going to start the season going through what many are calling the most significant loss of a cast member yet. Many hit shows have taken significant hits falling departures like this.

    The Verdict: Grey’s Anatomy is one of the most resilient and fabulous players ratings wise of the last decade. The way it has withstood all the lead-in flops that ABC threw at it, as well as multiple competition circulating through the other channels (including once mega hits like NBC must-see TV, CSI, American Idol and others), is truly remarkable. As such, I do think the show should take this timeslot downgrade with class and come nowhere near the flops ABC has had there. However, I also think that this particular year the show’s strength was somehow overvalued because of how weak the competition was in the slot and moving a year after that, especially amidst the loss of a major cast member, is not the best way to highlight the aforementioned strength.

    The Guess: 2.11 (-22%)

    Potential for Major Deviation: Average

    Scandal (3.05 Last Year)

    Timeslot: Thursdays at 9, ABC

    Lead-in: Grey's Anatomy

    Lead-out: How to Get Away with Murder

    Episode Order: 22-24 episodes

    Competition: Thursday Night Football/ Two and a Half Men & The McHarthys, Bad Judge & A to Z/ The Blacklist, Gracepoint/?, Reign

    The Pros
    • In this day and age, whenever a show in its third season pulls a +22% in raw numbers, there is no way not to be in awe of that. Scandal even managed a finale that was up year to year.
    • 9pm is a higher viewed hour than 10pm was
    • Despite a move to a more competitive hour, Scandal will have the big advantage of still having the very solid Grey’s Anatomy as a lead-in.
    • How to Get Away with Murder may be the hottest new show of the season. Having that as a lead-out is never a bad thing.
    • Even if the hour is more competitive than last year’s timeslot, it’s still a relatively easy timeslot, especially during the fall.
    • Scandal continues to have as much of ABC’s promotional muscle behind it as it ever did.

    The Cons
    • Many serialized shows enjoyed early greatness only to suffer from even greater declines (see also Revenge and OUAT’s second seasons for the most recent examples). Scandal could easily follow through.
    • Last year, Scandal had a ridiculously low amount of competition against it, as Parenthood was a very low rated drama option and Elementary was one of the weakest CBS weekday hours. Things won’t be as easy this year especially come midseason when NBC moves red-hot The Blacklist to the slot.
    • I haven’t found anything stating whether or not Scandal will also enjoy the split season treatment that did it so good last year.

    The Verdict: I think the timeslot change has pros and cons but we can ultimately consider it a timeslot upgrade, even factoring in The Blacklist. So I think Scandal is sitting nicely for yet another good season. At the end of the day though, it will probably hinge more on its ability to fail the serialized shows’ trap of losing viewers than on the timeslot.

    The Guess: 2.85 (-7%)

    Potential for Major Deviation: Average

    How to Get Away with Murder (New Show)

    Timeslot: Thursdays at 10, ABC

    Lead-in: Scandal

    Lead-out: Local Programming

    Episode Order: 16-18 episodes

    Competition: Parenthood/Allegiance and Thursday Night Football/Elementary

    The Pros
    • This may very well be the hottest new show of the season and it has the entire force of ABC’s promotional machine behind it in its full strength!
    • Viola Davis is a star!
    • This show has the highest rated drama of last season as a lead-in. Said show also happens to be from the same creator and to look highly compatible. That’s a win!
    • The timeslot is probably the easiest Monday-Thursday 10pm timeslot competition wise at least during fall, as Elementary continues to limp along and Parenthood remains a low rated option in its final season.
    • The show is a limited series which means it will avoid airing episodes in the low rated Spring!

    The Cons
    • If Allegiance becomes a surprise hit, the timeslot suddenly gets more crowded!
    • Airing at 10pm always entails a higher dependence on the lead-in. If Scandal has a slump like other serialized shows have in the past, How to Get Away with Murder may very well fall with it!

    The Verdict: As I continue to write these, the more I actually appreciate some of the schedules that networks came up with. This is just another piece of perfect scheduling that literally has everything going for it. It has the highest rated and most compatible lead-in it could have, it has practically no competition, it will avoid the lowest rated portion of the year, it has a big star headlining it and it has ABC full behind it. That has to result in a big win for ABC.

    The Guess: Shonda does it again. A 2.65

    Potential for Major Deviation: High

    The Big Bang Theory (5.07 Last Year)

    Timeslot:Thursdays at 8, CBS (after 6 six on Mondays at 8 at the beginning of the season)

    Lead-in: Local Programming

    Lead-out: The Millers (Mom while on Mondays)

    Episode Order: 22-24 episodes

    Competition: Bones, Grey's Anatomy, The Biggest Looser/? and The Vampire Diaries (The Voice, Dancing with the Stars, Gotham, The Originals and Monday Night Football while on Mondays)

    The Pros
    • Getting to air on Mondays for the first 6 weeks may prove to be a big advantage, as Monday has  higher viewing levels than Thursday.
    • For a show that was already this hot two years ago to only have felt 4% last season, that’s a major accomplishment and continues to show promise.

    The Cons
    • Moving to Mondays may be a good thing if it was going to be a permanent thing but moving back in the middle of the season certainly has potential to affect the ratings negatively.
    • Although the show did have a great trend last year, the -4% are mostly a result of the fall being severely up year to year. The year to year comparisons got uglier towards the end of the season. That may be a sign that the show has peaked.

    The Verdict: Obviously this show is clearly in a different stratosphere than pretty much everything else on broadcast TV, so it feels ridiculous to even comment on the possibility of it having anything remotely close to a “bad season”. I think this show has peaked from a raw numbers point of view and I think the move in the middle of the fall is bound to affect things up negatively even if it’s just a little bit. So I think we’re past the point of it continuing its ascension, not that it matters all that much, as it continues to live in a different realm.
     
    The Guess: 4.47 (-12%)

    Potential for Major Deviation: Average

    The Millers (2.63 Last Year)

    Timeslot: Thursdays at 8h30, CBS

    Lead-in: The Big Bang Theory

    Lead-out: Two and a Half Men

    Episode Order: 22-24 episodes

    Competition: Bones, Grey's Anatomy, The Biggest Looser/? and The Vampire Diaries

    The Pros
    • Even if it needs to air out of TBBT repeats, let’s please remember that said repeats are still often higher rated than any other CBS comedy and thus a still a spectacular lead-in! That means there won’t be much of a chance for The Millers to get exposed.
    • No other comedy competition in the hour.
    The Cons
    • It will have to air sans The Big Bang Theory originals for at least 5 weeks next year. That’s more than the one week it had to air without them this past season.
    • Grey’s Anatomy brings a considerable higher amount of competition than Wonderland did a year ago and it’s not like FOX and NBC aren’t going to be stronger as well.
    • The Millers will miss out the first weeks of the season when the viewing levels are the highest.
    • Did you see the outright ugly way in which this show finished the season? This show actually went sub 2.0 last year. That’s a horrible way to head into the season.

    The Verdict: In my opinion, The Millers was, to put it mightily, the biggest fraud of last season and I think that towards the end of the year, that was getting pretty clear when it was hitting numbers lower than the CBS Monday comedies despite the highest rated show on broadcast television as the lead-in. I don’t even think this show should have been renewed when there was another newbie clearly showing much more promise in a much worse situation, Friends with Better Lives. The question is if it gets exposed as the fraud that it is this year or if it manages to keep this up for another year.

    The Guess: 2.00 (-24%)

    Potential for Major Deviation: Average

    Two and a Half Men (2.27 Last Year)

    Timeslot: Thursdays at 9,CBS

    Lead-in: The Millers

    Lead-out: Black-ish

    Episode Order: 22-24 episodes (If anyone knows of a shorter final season order please let me know)

    Competition: Scandal, Bad Judge & A to Z/ The Blacklist, Gracepoint/? and Reign

    The Pros
    • Announced final seasons have the potential to seriously ignite ratings! Did you see How I Met Your Mother this year?
    • Two and a Half Men got badly hurt for two thirds of last year when it had to air at the bottom of the hour out of the incompatible and low rated The Crazy Ones. Once it got reinstituted as an anchor, the show came back strong proving it was still a very competent player. Now that it has the chance of airing for the full year at 9pm, that strength shows up right away and the year to year comparisons can only gain from it!
    • Come midseason, it will be the only comedy airing here.

    The Cons
    • The hour is more competitive now than it was a year ago with Scandal and later The Blacklist populating the hour, while Bad Judge also appears at least a stronger option than Michael J. Fox was.
    • This may not be the type of show that really benefits from a final season announcement seeing as it doesn’t really have a long term serialized storyline going for it.
    • Two and a Half Men will miss out the first weeks of the season when the viewing levels are the highest.

    The Verdict: I am optimistic about this because the results seemed to improve so much once the show moved to the 9pm anchor role and that was in spite of spring when viewing levels are much lower. The final season thing also shouldn’t hurt even if I expect nothing on the sorts of what happened with Mother last year. Sure, the show will have more competition, but I don’t think this is the type of program to really hurt with the two drama powerhouses in the hour. I think it will go out quite well.

    The Guess: 2.45(+8%)

    Potential for Major Deviation: Low

    The McHarthys (New Show)

    Timeslot: Thursdays at 9h30, CBS

    Lead-in: Two and a Half Men

    Lead-out: Elementary

    Episode Order: 13 (potentially 22-24) episodes

    Competition: Scandal, Bad Judge & A to Z/ The Blacklist, Gracepoint/? and Reign

    The Pros
    • Two and a Half Men is a competent and very compatible lead-in.
    • As the only new comedy on CBS’s roster, the show should have plenty of opportunists to enjoy  promotional support, especially since it’s premiering later when CBS has no new show to promote and could also enjoy plenty of Thursday Night Football push.
    • Come midseason, it will be the only comedy airing here.

    The Cons
    • This show is not exactly bathing in buzz right now and it’s not like critical reception is strong either.
    • Mike and Molly is waiting in the can with 22 episodes ready to go. Those will have to someplace and this is clearly the easiest one.
    • The McHarthys will miss out the first weeks of the season when the viewing levels are the highest.

    The Verdict: I am not a buyer here. I could see it maybe lucking out and turning into a solid yet unspectacular type of player Mike and Molly esque but I think it's much more likely that we end up with a We Are Men/Partners kind of dud. With Mike and Molly’s 22 episodes waiting in the can, this one will be on a short leash from CBS from early on and premiering right against Scandal’s sure to be big November sweeps episodes shouldn’t do it much good either.

    The Guess: Equals Partners from two years ago (after accounting for the general decline). A 1.66

    Potential for Major Deviation: Average

    Elementary (1.73 Last Year)

    Timeslot: Thursdays at 10, CBS

    Lead-in: The McHarthys

    Lead-out: Local Programming

    Episode Order: 22-24 episodes

    Competition:How to Get Away with Murder/Secrets and Lies and Parenthood/Allegiance

    The Pros
    • Elementary had to compete head to head with the highest rated drama of the season last year. While How to Get Away with Murder may also be a worthy opponent, it should still be an easier option.
    • Starting out later may prove to be a good thing for Elementary as it will allow it to run in a straighter way while also benefiting from going against reruns from the other networks more often.

    The Cons
    • Scandal may be gone but Murder is still a powerful opponent. On the other hand, NBC may get its act together at midseason with Allegiance, so at the end of the day, Elementary may have as much competition as it did last year.
    • The McHarthys may be an even worse lead-in than Two and a Half Men was for most of last year.
    • Elementary will miss out the first weeks of the season when the viewing levels are the highest.
    • This show finished the season in a scary fashion, hitting a new outright low of 1.4 for the finale. That’s just the worst way to head into the season.

    The Verdict: This show may have gotten a bad raw deal last year with bad and incompatible lead-ins while having to face very stiff competition in the form of Scandal but I still think it should have done better than it did particularly during winter when it didn’t have Scandal to compete against. The truth of the matter is that I just don’t think this is a strong show and while I understand why CSI was the one demoted for the weekend rotation, I don’t think this show deserved to get another year on a midweek slot. And I think ratings will eventually show that.

    The Guess: 1.42 (-18%)

    Potential for Major Deviation: Low

    Bad Judge (New Show)

    Timeslot: Thursdays at 9, NBC

    Lead-in: The Biggest Looser

    Lead-out: A to Z

    Episode Order: 13 (potentially 22-24) episodes

    Competition: Scandal, Thursday Night Football/ Two and a Half Men, Gracepoint/? and Reign

    The Pros
    • Kate Walsh is a big TV star and could attract a crowd!
    • For the first 6 weeks of the season, Bad Judge will be the only comedy in the hour! That’s a big advantage.
    • The Biggest Looser should provide a solid, albeit unspectacular, lead-in.

    The Cons
    • It’s NBC, it’s a comedy and it’s Thursday Night. Need I to give a history lesson of how those have gone lately?
    • Kate Walsh may be a TV star but the audience that knows her and would show up for this could be too busy checking out the Shonda shows from which she emerged on ABC.
    • Two and a Half Men is still a very capable comedy and having it as an opponent is not an ideal situation. On top of that, it’s not like Scandal is easy competition either.
    • The Blacklist is taking over the slot come midseason which means Bad Judge would have to overachieve to make NBC go out of its way and save it.

    The Verdict: This feels like something that NBC hasn’t tried yet and that it could work at least better than the horror that was NBC Thursday last year with Sean and Michael J. Fox. However, that’s not really saying that much. I think having the first six weeks of the season without comedy competition will do it good and provide it a good chance of sampling but I am not sure it will be enough. I say it’s not a spectacular fail but doesn’t really do enough to warrant a back 9 either.

    The Guess: 1.17

    Potential for Major Deviation: Low

    A to Z (New Show)

    Timeslot: Thursdays at 9h30, NBC

    Lead-in: Bad Judge

    Lead-out: Parenthood

    Episode Order: 13 (potentially 22-24) episodes

    Competition: Scandal, Thursday Night Football/ The McHarthys, Gracepoint/? and Reign

    The Pros
    • Cristin Milioti was the best received thing about How I Met Your Mother’s final season which means there is a good chance that part of Mother’s old audience decides to check out this show for me.
    • Like fellow newbie Bad to Judge, it will be the only comedy in the hour for the first weeks of the season.
    • If The McHarthys proves to be a flop, comedy competition will be reduced for the rest of the season as well.
    • It’s a good old romantic comedy and we haven’t really gotten many of those on TV lately. Could be that there is an audience for this.

    The Cons
    • If Bad Judge flops big, there won’t be much that A to Z can do at the bottom of the hour. And it’s not like that’s the most compatible pairing out there either.
    • Scandal as a competition is never a pleasant thing.
    • The Blacklist is taking over the slot come midseason which means Bad Judge would have to overachieve to make NBC go out of its way and save it.
    • Once again… it’s a comedy airing on NBC Thursday Night. Enough said.

    The Verdict: I am cautiously optimistic about this one. I think Cristin Milioti is a good star to have headlining a comedy right now and I think the timeslot could be much worse competition wise. I also think the concept could honestly attract a crowd. I don’t however feel very good about the Bad Judge pairing particularly since this one will have to endure a bottom of the hour situation. I say it grows a few ticks from Bad Judge showing enough promise to prompt NBC to try something else with it, either a direct flip with Judge during fall or a move to a different timeslot during Spring and probably comes down to the bubble at the end of the season.

    The Guess: 1.35

    Potential for Major Deviation: Average

    Parenthood (1.27 Last Year)

    Timeslot: Thursdays at 10, NBC

    Lead-in: A to Z

    Lead-out: Local Programming

    Episode Order: 13 episodes

    Competition:Thursday Night Football/ Elementary and How to Get Away with Murder

    The Pros
    • It’s an announced final season for a show that seems to always have had a very loyal and sustained following. It’s unlikely a show like that would fall any further now and may even spike a bit!
    • There is a chance for improvement with Scandal out of the loop!
    • Last year, Parenthood had a comically bad lead-in from The Michael J. Fox. If A to Z manages to do a bit better than that, which shouldn’t be all that hard, Parenthood could take advantage and improve a bit too with the greater lead-in support.
     
    The Cons
    • Parenthood didn’t really benefit last year from Scandal’s absence during the winter when ABC was airing reruns in that hour, so why should it benefit now that ABC is airing How to Get Away with Murder?
    • This isn’t the type of show that benefits from an announced final season, so it won’t really go out with a bang.

    The Verdict: Parenthood was so stable last year that I don’t see any reason why it should dip now that everyone knows it is ending and that it has a better lead-in and slightly less formidable competition. I think it manages to be up a tick even in raw numbers.

    The Guess: 1.29 (+2%)

    Potential for Major Deviation: Low

    Bones (1.72 Last Year)

    Timeslot:Thursdays at 8,FOX

    Lead-in: Local Programming

    Lead-out: Gracepoint

    Episode Order: 22-24 episodes

    Competition: Grey's Anatomy, Thursday Night Football/ The Big Bang Theory & The Millers, The Biggest Looser/?, The Vampire Diaries

    The Pros
    • Bones has survived so many timeslots and moves that this one really shouldn’t be any different. It just has one of the most loyal audiences in the history of broadcast TV.
    • While there is tough competition in hour, Bones may not be that much compatible with the CBS comedies. Grey’s Anatomy should be a tougher beast but Bones has went up against it in the past and survived it.
    • Last year, there was some serious Spring damage but that could have just been the result of a second in-season move. Now settled in the same timeslot from the beginning of the season, Bones stands a chance of correcting some of that damage.

    The Cons
    • What happened last Spring may have been the result of FOX jerking around the show too much within one season but it was still real long term damage to the show. It will be tough to come back from that.
    • The Big Bang Theory is not the most compatible competition one can think of but basically every show out there is compatible in some way with TBBT since it has such a mass appeal. Bone will be no different. Add in the cross audience it has with Grey’s Anatomy and Bones actually has even more competition than last year when it was up against The Voice and DWTS!
    • God knows what FOX will do with this show come Spring!

    The Verdict: While I do think that Bones indeed has one of the most loyal audiences out there and that the way it has dealt with its first in season move last year (to freaking Fridays) was truly remarkable, I also believe that its Spring damage was in part real and not very easy to come back from. Bones is however a procedural and those have the easiest time to come back from slumps like this. The question is whether or not a tough competitive environment is the proper place to recover from a bad Spring.

    The Guess: I don’t think it is, but I think the show still holds ok, posting raw numbers on par with what it was doing on Spring for most of the season. 1.57 (-9%)

    Potential for Major Deviation: Average

    Gracepoint (New Show)

    Timeslot:Thursdays at 9, FOX

    Lead-in: Bones

    Lead-out: Local Programming

    Episode Order: 10 episodes

    Competition: Scandal, Thursday Night Football/ Two and a Half Men & The McHarthys, Bad Judge & A to Z/ The Blacklist and Reign

    The Pros
    • It’s a self-contained story that will run straight through and only for 10 weeks. That should compel viewers to stick around for the ride.
    • Bones should provide an ok and actually quite compatible lead-in.
    • While Scandal is tough to deal with, that’s pretty much the only serious competition the show will have to worry about, considering neither the NBC or the CBS comedies should be that high rated or have that much overlap.
    • Airing its entire run in the fall, when viewing levels are at its highest, is a good thing.
    • This is a well received show by the critics that has a top notch cast!

    The Cons
    • Doesn’t really matter much that critics love this if the only people that follow what critics say have already watched the original and have no interest in round 2!
    • Bones may be compatible but if those spring drops continue it won’t do this show much good.
    • Scandal as competition is never a good place to be for any show, especially a newbie.
    • Most of these murder-across-the-season type of shows that cable has tried out during the last seasons have been well received by the critics but not so much by the audience (see also The Killing). Will this one really be any different?

    The Verdict: I don’t have any strong feeling here. I don’t think it is a big hit by any means but I also think it has less downside potential than something like Red Band Society which could be outright rejected. A traditional crime show like this ought to attract at least a certain audience and it’s not like there are many opportunities for that audience to bail post premiere. I see it being a modest performer that does so-so and probably accomplishes FOX’s deal of focusing on another nights during fall, but not enough to come back a year later (I am not even sure if that’s a possibility with the show format).

    The Guess: 1.40

    Potential for Major Deviation: Average

    The Vampire Diaries (1.02 Last Year)

    Timeslot: Thursdays at 8,CW

    Lead-in: Local Programming

    Lead-out: Reign

    Episode Order: 22-24 episodes

    Competition: Grey's Anatomy, Bones, Thursday Night Football/ The Big Bang Theory & The Millers and The Biggest Looser/?

    The Pros
    • Season 5 was widely regarded as a mess creatively and that was the reason live ratings dropped. But it’s usual for long running shows to have some sloppy seasons along the way, that doesn’t mean everything after that will be as bad. As long as The Vampire Diaries manages to have a better season creatively, it should recover some lost ground.

    The Cons
    • It was consensual that the CW was having a bad spring last year as all shows were dropping. So there shouldn’t be any particular reason of concern for The Vampire Diaries, except that unlike other shows the drop was pretty sustained. There were the lows 1s in the fall, the 1s in late fall, the 0.9s in winter and then the 0.7 and 0.8s in spring. That’s a very dangerous trend and the finale didn’t even show signs of improving on that. Can a serialized show recover from that?
    • Many TVD lead out shows failed throughout the years because they were targeting an W18-34 audience which happened to be already taken since there was a mammoth reigning over that audience in the slot in the form of Grey’s Anatomy. With Grey’s Anatomy now moving up an hour, it will be TVD’s turn to bleed.

    The Verdict: It’s pretty tough to envision a recovery from the horror that was the Spring Season of this show. At some point, the episodes were even down 30% year to year! Having similar skewing Grey’s Anatomy on the way while trying to make a recovery isn’t also a very nice proposition. I don’t think it goes very well for this show.

    The Guess: 0.80 (-22%)

    Potential for Major Deviation: Average

    Reign (0.58 Last Year)

    Timeslot: Thursdays at 9, CW

    Lead-in: The Vampire Diaries

    Lead-out: Local Programming

    Episode Order: 22-24 episodes

    Competition: Scandal, Thursday Night Football/ Two and a Half Men & The McHarthys, Gracepoint/?, Bad Judge & A to Z/ The Blacklist

    The Pros
    • Reign’s drop at season’s end could have simply been the result of a very underachieving The Vampire Diaries and CW as a whole. With the CW looking brighter during fall and TVD recovering some lost ground, Reign is able to patch things up.
    • Unlike other TVD lead-outs, Reign was never sampled in a significant manner. That means there is potential for a sophomore bounce!

    The Cons
    • Reign ended the season hitting an outright new low after trending downwards during spring despite a very solid winter. That’s always a horrible way to head into the new season!
    • As The Vampire Diaries continues to slide, Reign could continue to come right down with it.
    • Last year, the show had the CW supporting it in full force promotion wise. No such luck this year as those resources are allocated elsewhere.
    • Grey’s Anatomy may be gone from the slot but Scandal isn’t an easy opponent either.

    The Verdict: Reign is a odd case because despite starting the season as the clear underdog among all three CW newbies, it held up okay enough in the fall to justify a back nine, showed quite some promise during winter (particularly in its first episode without an original TVD lead-in) and then collapsed during spring. I think a lot of the winter spike can be attributed to facing the taste instead of grey’s anatomy while the spring decline probably comes down to how much the vampire diaries declined. But where does it leave us for next season? I think it holds better than The Vampire Diaries but really doesn’t do anything worth writing home about and certainly nothing that makes a still likely Season 3 look up promising.

    The Guess: 0.48 (-17%)

    Potential for Major Deviation: Low

    Now it's time for you to make your predictions Click HERE to submit your predictions!

    What did you think of these predictions? Do you agree with my thoughts? Share your predictions and thoughts below on the comment sections!

    Also, what are your viewing plans for Thursdays during this fall? This is a crazy day for me! My priority will be the Shonda-trio (Grey's Anatomy, Scandal, How to Get Away with Murder) all the way. I have also turned into a big Reign fan and I will also continue with TVD even though I may not necessarily do it during the season. Then there is also The Big Bang Theory and I am also very much interested in both of the NBC comedies. Finally, I also want to try Graceland and I continue to watch Bones, although it may also not be during the season but through summer catch-up. What about you? What will you be watching?

    Thank you for reading and participating ;) I will be back tomorrow with the final round for the Friday and Sunday shows, at the end of the day!

    64 comments:

    1. I really hope Bones does better than 1.57.

      ReplyDelete
    2. Only looking forward for Scandal on this post. Just like I want Stalker now for my Maggie Q fix, I need Scandal to start now for my Kerry Washington fix. Though I will be checking out How to Get Away with Murder.

      ReplyDelete
    3. Vampire Diaries actually shocked me with its numbers last season.
      We always knew that the spin-off wouldn`t come close to it but looking at last years numbers and having both shows pretty damn even (regarding that the one show was new).


      Same goes for Reign, it was promoted like a shipper heaven, it looks like a shipper heaven, the episodes I actually watched were shipper heaven (NO I still haven't watched beyond episode 3 because the first 3 sucked worse than that The Room did). And the worst of all: it had ONE HELL of a promotional campaign. Dare I say even better than Originals/Tomorrow People combined?
      That show was made to rule theCWs numbers and yet here we are wondering HOW on earth that show made it to a second season.

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    4. Being in its tenth season now I kind of doubt that ratings matter much anymore. I loved Bones in its early seasons and have yet to catch up from season 7 onwards but I want it to end with 10.
      It`s incredible that the show seems to have held a high standard for so long but at this point the actors need to move on.
      10 seasons is a fairly solid ammount of box sets in my shelf

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    5. Hope you are underestimating Elementary.

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    6. Thursday has little that I will watch. I dropped TVD last season and I'm not inclined to go back. Reign never caught me, although I've heard good things. I dropped Grey's years ago, never got into Scandal. I may try to get caught up on Scandal and give it a go this year. How to Commit Murder sounds interesting to me, so I may give it a go. I do expect ABC Thursdays to do really well. Shonda like Dick Wolf knows how to grab eyes and keep them and good for her! Bad Judge sound awful. A to Z sounds better, and it might have been a better idea to start the night with it. As you said BBT isn't going anywhere and it along with TAAHM having it's final season CBS should do well from 8:00-10:00. I personally like Elementary, more than I expected to. It's the one show I will watch on Thursdays. It didn't do real well ratings wise, but it got a syndication package, so I'm not surprised they left it midweek. They need to be able to justify renewing the show on ratings not just syndication. If things go south I suspect they will move it to Sundays. I actually think it might fit better with TGW than Mentalist does, but maybe not. I'll watch Blacklist when it comes over.

      Gracepoint is an interesting experiment. I saw Broadchurch, so I'm not going to watch a show that seems to be an exact copy including using the same dialog. Having a different ending is good, because even those who didn't watch it would find out who did it and not care. My feeling is the people who were really interested probably watched Broadchurch. I could be wrong, but that's my gut feeling. In any case it's just 10 episodes so it should get a full run.

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    7. I remember a few years ago for like, six or seven seasons straight Thursdays were my busiest night but it hasn't been that way for a while. I like Scandal but usually reserve it for Netflix, it's a show much better suited for binge-watching than weekly viewing. I will check out How to Get Away With Murder as it's so buzzy, but I'm not particularly excited for it, even though I'm pretty sure it will be entertaining. Is that weird?


      The Vampire Diaries...well I'm catching up since I didn't see season 5 but I'm thinking season 6 will have to wait until next summer, s5 is a bit tedious even watching at my own pace, but I am keeping up with The Originals so may suffer through it just so I am not lost during any crossovers. And I keep hoping the show will somehow go back to the quality of writing of the first two and a half seasons, so that's a definite wait and see. (My only prediction is that it will be down at least by .2) Reign... well I've never seen this, I was hoping they'd put it on Netflix or even Google Play but they've done neither. So I probably won't watch season 2 anytime soon.


      I'm always rooting for FOX because I've simply always loved their style more than the other broadcast networks, but Bones is another franchise I like, but I haven't kept up with it since season 6 or so and being a procedural, one of those shows I'll catch up with on Netflix sooner or later. Gracepoint I will check it out because of David Tennant but I had intended to watch Broadchurch first, but I suppose it doesn't matter. I'm interested to see how the ratings for it will be though.

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    8. Thursdays are light for me - the last half of the week is when I usually try to catch up from Monday-Wednesday!


      I predicted modest drops for: Grey's Anatomy, Scandal, TVD, Bones, Parenthood, The Millers, Elementary, and Two and a Half Men - don't watch any of these so just went with the average.


      Of the new shows, only Gracepoint and How to Get Away With Murder are ones I'll be tuning in for. I gave the others somewhere in the 1.0-1.5 range as only A to Z seems to have any real buzz around it. I haven't seen Broadchurch so Gracepoint doesn't feel like a do-over to me...and it has David Tennant, how could that possibly go wrong? I am really looking forward to HTGAWM - I like Viola Davis and it has a darker feel to it that I like. Like Red Band Society, I think people will be tuning it because of the name recognition of the lead - just hope it has the legs to maintain it.


      Big Bang is one of my favorite shows but I binge watch the DVD's every year now. Love the show but there are so many good new shows that I want to check out! Fortunately, this show dominates in so many ways that while the temporary move to Mondays may sting a bit, it would take a gigantic loss for it to really matter.


      Last but not least, Reign. I was surprised by how much I enjoyed this show last year - especially after the love triangle was finally put to rest. Crazy King Henry was so much fun I was sad to see him go. This season seems to be a bit darker so I am hoping it can sustain the 0.5-0.6 range for the season and hopefully, that will be enough to earn a S3. I don't think this show has enough to go for more than five seasons but if done right, I think a five season arc to tell Mary's story (even beyond her time in France) would be perfect - I just hope the ratings hold out for that!

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    9. I mostly agree with everything, but after seeing Bones doing 1.8 on Fridays I think everything is possible; the numbers dropped in the spring, but I can see it doing high 1s on the fall, then it would depend on how it holds up. I predict 1.7


      Greys is something I'm not comfortable predicting; the ratings are going down year to year, but it is getting a lot of promotion and there is going to be a lot of synergy with Scandal and Muder, so... 2.1 looks pretty spot on, and if so ABC is going to be over the moon considering how much 8PM sucked for them

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    10. WOW, seems like almost every show is down from last year. Where are all the viewers going?

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    11. Thursdays are to tough for me. I watch to many shows! Last year0 I had to give upon Elementary after some eps into S02.

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    12. TVDs bad numbers signify the quality .
      The main problem didn't start with Klaus and thats why ratings stayed up.
      - The originals were good vilIains and season 4 and 5 generally sucked on that front.
      - Julie Plec is really not all that bright , she should have kept Kol as a regular character on TVD in season 5
      - The characterization for certain characters is bad Bonnie is useless without her powers and boring , Matt is just plain useless, Jeremy should have stayed dead in season 4 it made Elena turning of her humanity pointless, Alaric being brought back sucks he never should have died but just have been trapped at the end of season 3 and then brought back in the season 5 finale.
      - Stefan has been boring creatively since he lost Elena , hes just there
      - Augustine vampire thing was annoying
      - Kat died
      Everything above turned people of the show , even if the season 5 finale was good lm not sure the show can completely recover.
      Jp has run this show into the ground on her own , l fear eventually TO will end up going the same way.
      -

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    13. Reign actually surprised me it eventually somewhat dropped its main focus on the triang triangle and got all political , plus Queen Catharine is a badass , I watched every episode and it improves by the end which is all that l can ask from a first year show ,l'll be watching season 2.
      Imagine TVD triangle with Stefan , Damon and Elena during season 1- 3 being dealt with in one season and then getting pushed out of the main focus.

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    14. There's not a lot on Thursdays, year around that interests me, even less in the fall. I usually use it as a catchup night, for shows that broadcast, on my heavier nights. Last year that was Arrow and Law and Order: SVU, because i was watching Revolution and The 100 live.

      Right now, i watch Defiance and Rectify live; and Extant on demand. I'm adding Under the Dome, since Rectify has ended.

      In the fall, my schedule will probably look like this: Homeland, Resurrection, and Ascension (Nov. 24th). I'll definitely watch The Blacklist (Feb. 5), when it moves to Thursdays.

      As for the shows, that broadcast on Thursdays, it seems to me that ABC has a lock; with Greys Anatomy, Scandal, and How to Get Away With Murder. CBS will probably come in second, because of their comedy block. It looks like Bones is on it's way out. Gracepoint looks interesting, but having watched Broadchurch only a few months ago, it's still too fresh in my mind. I may watch it, as an every day show, around Christmas time.

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    15. I'm really looking forward to How To Get Away With Murder, and I think that by moving Grey's Anatomy up ABC finally (but temporarily) solved their "Thursday at 8" problem.
      Btw, that Grey's Anatomy photo... very Downton Abbey! :)

      I'll also check out Gracepoint, but I'm not sure if I'll watch it live or binge-watch it during the Christmas Holidays. I enjoy crime shows like this more when marathoned, I'll probably watch the first two episodes and decide.

      I'll obviously also watch The Vampire Diaries and Reign. Something you haven't mentioned about Reign is the likely death of [spoiler alert?] Francis this season, I love him and want to keep him as long as possible but I can't see them pushing it for another whole season, he has to die sooner or later and I have a feeling ratings will take a little dip when he does.

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    16. The Big Bang Theory is the only show I'll be going back to. I'll be checking out How to get Away with Murder as well.

      I won't be going back to Reign or The Vampire Diaries.

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    17. Will watch TBBT, Blacklist(I love Red), Scandal, Elementary, will try How to get away with Murder & Gracepoint. Also will see if TVD has decided to let Damon be Damon and not some whipped puppy following Elena around...very sad to see. Again a big thank you to Dish Network and their Hopper which allows me to record this many shows. ;)

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    18. The fall Thursday shows I predict will be canceled are The McCarthys and Bad Judge. Of course Parenthood and Two and a Half Men are in final seasons so they won't return to the line-up next season either. I thought, by the way, that TAAHM had a short final season of 13 episodes, but now that I'm looking for it I can't find any proof of that.

      Anyway, here are my predictions:
      Grey's Anatomy: Will be down of course. Premieres to 2.5+, average 2.2
      Scandal: From what I've heard, people found season 3 underwhelming so some of them might not be returning. I don't think the show continues to grow, but I also don't think it will do bad. I say it premieres to 3.0+ and averages 2.8
      How To Get Away With Murder: Will be another Shonda Rhimes hit. Premieres to 2.7+, average 2.6
      The Big Bang Theory: Will be interesting to see how it does on Monday and then when it returns to Thursday. I say it premieres to a 4.5+, with an average of 4.7.
      The Millers: Premiere 2.3+, average 2.1
      Two and a Half Men: Premiere 2.2+, average 2.2
      The McCarthys: Premiere 1.8+, average 1.7
      Elementary: Premiere 1.6+, average 1.5
      Bad Judge: Premieres to 1.5+, average 1.2
      A to Z: Premiere 1.6+, average 1.4
      Parenthood: Premiere so to 1.4+, average 1.3
      Bones: Premiere 1.7+, average 1.6
      Gracepoint: Going the same as Bones. Premiere 1.7+, average 1.6
      The Vampire Diaries: Premiere 0.9-1.0, average 0.9 (leaning towards 0.90)
      Reign: Premiere 0.6-0.7, average 0.6 (leaning towards 0.61)

      I will be trying How To Get Away With Murder and later I'll watch The Blacklist. I will likely also watch Gracepoint though I might be binge-watching it after it's finished.

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    19. I think that difference between Reign and The Vampire Dramas will start at 0.3 tops and it'll be shrinking gradually.

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    20. I think GA will suffer a great from the early slot - it's not an 8 p.m. program by any means. If Resurrection hadn't tailed off significantly after its launch, that would've been better with GA at 9 on Sunday. I suppose if Murder fails to click, they would move GA to that slot. Scandal's big risk is JTS - the show continued to move fast to the extreme, which I noticed because I binged all the episodes this summer.

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    21. It depends on what fails22 August 2014 at 23:46

      On ABC, Grey's will drop 20+% for the first time in 3(?) years against TBBT, Scandal won't match last season performance but will keep great numbers at 9 PM, leading to the show that will probably ABC's biggest new success on Murder.


      CBS is all about TBBT, Millers will drop it by 50% but I'm not sure if 2.5 Men will do better than last year even at a final season, McCarthys seems DOA and Elementary will be their lowest rated mon-thu drama, bound to fridays or sundays starting next season is ready already.


      NBC has another year of rebuild, The Biggest Loser will improve the 8 PM hour, but Bad Judge and A to Z are just warmers to their possible game changer Blacklist, I wish A to Z to be the highest rated among those two too, but last season 9:30 comedies did very poorly overral, Parenthood will be steady in my opinion, just like you said.


      FOX can't do much, Bones will probably hover around a league-average drop unless it performs like last spring, Gracepoint is a tentative that could go either way, knowing FOX recent track, I bet it will be a bubble show at best.


      CW will have a tough year, TVD will collapse even worse and Reign will start getting 0.4s frequently.

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    22. Timeshifted viewing... There's maybe like 3 shows that I watch the night that they are and those are all shows that my roommates watch too so we make it a group thing. But with DVRs that can record 6 shows at once, Hulu, digital stores, apps for every network that provide full episodes... when you can easily watch any show virtually any time you want why bother making sure you're at home and ready to watch something at a specific time? And I prefer watching shows later so I can watch them on my phone, just because I get less distracted. It's not a coincidence that timeshifted viewing increases each season as live viewing decreases. :)

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    23. A 1.57 would be a drop likely smaller than the overall drop of broadcast which means Bones would be performing better than this past season, so it would be a win for the show (even if in this case it's a bit sketchy because of the Friday airing comparisons).

      Thanks for stopping by ;)

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    24. I love Scandal and Kerry Washingtoo too, I adore the show so much. I am also very much looking forward to How to Get Away with Murder, that show looks SOO good!

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    25. Thanks for stopping by and for the interest.

      Regarding The Vampire Diaries, I was also disappointed with last season and I agree that the show hasn't been the same since half of season 3 but I felt like last season was the worst so far. I don't think it was actually bad but it just has nothing to do with the show I loved so freaking much in the first two seasons. I still think it has a shot of recovering though. Last year was a bit of an adaption period because of the loss of the originals and because of the triangle but I think that now they are a bit more settled and I think the triangle is over (for now). So I am actually a bit more optimistic about next year.

      As for Reign, that's probably the biggest surprise I've had with a show so far. I had so much prejudice against it. I was pissed that the cw picked it instead of the selection last year and that I was angry that it got the post TVD slot last season and then it got early renewed over The Tomorrow People which I liked so much. But then I gave the show a try and I loved it. It's not a perfect show and you somehow have to suspend the disbelief to be able to fully get into it, but if you are able to, it's really fantastic and it takes you in in such an addictive way. I don't think it's a shippers heaven. During the first half of the season (exactly up until episode 14 to be accurate) there was indeed a main triangle going on that was very much part of the main storyline but it gets resolved in that episode and the creators have stated over and over again that they are not going back there. Sure, there are plenty of romantic pairings going but they are part of the show. I think it's a very exciting show, I would recommend another try. The first episodes are not exactly the best to try it out even though I got glued almost right away but I would say episode 7 or so is when it really hits its stride. I also don't think it received more promotion than the other two combined and not more than The Originals either, I think that was the CW's most promoted newbie of the year, and with good reason.

      Just my two cents ;)

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    26. I agree. I wasn't happy with the resolution of the triangle but I am happy that it's over, I actually enjoyed seeing it played out because they didn't toy with it for seasons and had it moving back and forth endless. It was just one plot for the first 13 episodes of the show, that's it. Reign definitely surprised me more than any show in recent memory.

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    27. In my opinion, even though you are right about some of the aforementioned points, the show's main issue this last year was that it was a "transitional year". It lost the originals, particularly Klaus, which during the last seasons had not only token up a huge amount of screentime but also be the driver of a lot of plots/character relationships. On top of that, I believe this season the triangle sort of got resolved for the time being. I mean, I am sure it will be revisited again later on, but for now I think they are through with Stefan and Elena. I think the fact that it was such a transitional season could be seen by the fact that they had so many different storylines one after the other that really weren't connected.

      Maybe I am just being a hopeless optimistic but I have better hopes for next season!

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    28. Thanks for stopping by and for the interest.

      Well, even though I don't watch the show I don't wish it any harm so for your sake I hope that I am underestimating it either but I don't really feel so, I've never seen the show do anything that would make me think it was a strong show. And its trend at the end of last season was really alarming. But sometimes shows surprise me a lot, so we shall see!

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    29. Thanks for this one as well!

      I also agree that Shonda night should do really well and it will be disappointing if it's not able to win the night for ABC even against TBBT. I mean, Scandal and Murder should beat the competition more than easily and GA should also beat The Millers most of the times. TBBT would have to consistently keep an insane margin over GA for CBS to win it out.

      I don't agree that CBS will do well from 8 to 10. I think CBS will do well at 8 and at 9, but not at the bottom of the hours. I agree that Elementary will move to Sundays next year and that it may not be such a horrible fit there.

      Well I am interested in Gracepoint and I had never heard of Broadchurch before, so there's that ;) But I understand your point, it's also a concerned I've expressed in the cons.

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    30. Thanks for the continued interest.

      Well, I am not really sure what to make of you thinking that a show will be entertaining but not being excited about it, I don't think it has happened to me before. But then again I get all hyped up with new shows so I am not the best person to comment on this.

      We agree about TVD. I did the same thing that you did which was to binge watch Season 5 (half in Christmas, half in summer) and I definitely felt that even then it was a bit tedious at times. I am however more hopeful for Season 6! I believe the show's main issue this last year was that it was a "transitional
      year". It lost the originals, particularly Klaus, which during the last
      seasons had not only token up a huge amount of screentime but also be
      the driver of a lot of plots/character relationships. On top of that, I
      believe this season the triangle sort of got resolved for the time
      being. I mean, I am sure it will be revisited again later on, but for
      now I think they are through with Stefan and Elena. I think the fact
      that it was such a transitional season could be seen by the fact that
      they had so many different storylines one after the other that really
      weren't connected.
      Regardless, even if I am wrong, I am also keeping up with The Originals, which I far prefer right now, so I will have the same problem as you if I decide to keep it for later binge watch since I probably won't be able to get the crossovers.

      I also tend to root for FOX because I admire so many of their initiatives. I love that they are trying shorter seasons to keep up the pace and the storyline, I love that they are into giving announced final seasons for shows, I love that they are into year round programming seriously (with the likes of 24 and others) but sadly they haven't really been rewarded for it seeing how their ratings just plain suck right now. They made SOO many bad decisions last year. At each turn, they decided to do the wrong thing whether it was a move or a non-move. It's pretty sad because they started the fall up in so many timeslots and ended up down to a never seen before degree. Pretty sad.

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    31. Thanks for one more round of participation!

      I am never really sure how much big stars can really bring in an audience to a show nowadays. Extant this summer, Vegas two years ago, The Crazy Ones this year are all examples I think. But yes, I think Viola Davis is a big star that certainly doesn't hurt Muder's chances.

      I agree with you 100% about Reign. That show was the biggest surprise of the season for me. I had so much prejudice against it but ended up liking it sooo much. Although I wasn't happy with the way the triangle was resolved (and I am usually not one to care about this stuff lol), I was happy that it was resolved even though I did get to enjoy the storyline when it played out. Yes I know people hate love triangles nowadays but if done right they can be good storylines and I happen to think this was one of those rare instances, especially because they didn't drag it along. It was just part of the storyline of the first half of the season, that's it. I liked it. I am now very excited about the new season and ready to dwell into the politics of it all! I agree that it looks like it will be darker and I all for it! Praying for good ratings!

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    32. Thanks for one more round of interest ;)

      I agree that Bones certainly has a wide range of possibilities, it's very hard for me to judge how serious the spring drops were after it had such an amazing winter. Viewers clearly left after the second in-season move, as expected, but was it for real or not? It's hard to know.

      As for GA, it should do enough to allow ABC to win the night. It will be disappointing if Shonda is not able to win the night for ABC even
      against TBBT. I mean, Scandal and Murder should beat the competition
      more than easily and GA should also beat The Millers most of the times.
      TBBT would have to consistently keep an insane margin over GA for CBS to
      win it out.

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    33. I am generally not a fan of love triangles either but I am glad they resolved it quickly...now I just hope all of our favorites at court survive the plague! Really looking forward to this next season and I'll be praying for those ratings right along with you!

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    34. Hey there, thanks for the interest!


      CGS already explained below a huge part of the factor which is timeshifted viewing. Another factor is cable and alternative ways to develop original content (online, streaming services, etc. all of their own shows nowadays). Because the pool of viewers is always the same, the more alternatives you have, the more proliferation of viewers you are going to find.


      Remember however that to judge individual shows it's irrelevant because since everything is falling, the performance of each show has to be compared with the overall decline. So for instance if the average overall decline is say 10% and a show falls 5% that means that the show actually improved year to year as it became more valuable to its network than it was a year ago. Too confusing? :P Feel free to ask further questions.

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    35. I think that's definetely one the main reasons. There's another one of equal importance though which is cable and alternative ways to develop original content
      (online, streaming services, etc. all of their own shows nowadays).
      Because the pool of viewers is always the same, the more alternatives
      you have, the more proliferation of viewers you are going to find.

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    36. I definitely know how you feel eheh ;)

      Thanks for stopping by!

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    37. Thanks for one more round of interest!

      I agree with you that ABC should be able to win the night. It will be disappointing if Shonda is not able to win the night for ABC even against TBBT. I mean, Scandal and Murder should beat the competition more than easily and GA should also beat The Millers most of the times. TBBT would have to consistently keep an insane margin over GA for CBS to win it out. Maybe CBS takes it a few times but overall ABC should ge tit. It's a different story in Spring with Secrets and Lies and whatever arrangement CBS does to its block and whatever takes over for TBL and whatever happens at FOX but for fall that's how I expect it to be.

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    38. Thank you again for one more round of interest in these ;)


      I think that more than fixing up the 8pm problem, ABC should even be able to win the night in the fall! It will be
      disappointing if Shonda is not able to win the night for ABC even
      against TBBT. I mean, Scandal and Murder should beat the competition
      more than easily and GA should also beat The Millers most of the times.
      TBBT would have to consistently keep an insane margin over GA for CBS to
      win it out. The GA pic was google doing eheh ;)


      Good point about Gracepoint and binge watching. I will watch it but I am also not sure if binge watching is not a better idea. I tend to prefer binge watching anyway and with crime shows it just works better. I did it for the killing seasons 1, 2 and obviously 4 and it worked nicely and I didn't have the pacing issues that so many others seemed to have with the first seasons.


      As for Reign, I am not really sure if they will really kill off Francis, especially this soon in the show's life. They've said over and over that it is not an accurate historic representation so I am not really certain how much they will care to follow the actual events. I would be very surprised if they killed him off as early as Season 2.

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    39. Well you will be having a very light Thursday then ;)

      Thanks for stopping by!

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    40. I actually think that TVD, despite the many many things it did wrong this season, has been handling Damon quite well, I don't think they've puppied him too much. But to each his own I guess, i can understand the dislike.

      Thanks for stopping by!

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    41. Couldn't watch Reign past episode 3 either. So frigging boring!

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    42. Again, thank you so much for one more round of interest and thank you for stopping by!

      I agree with the cancellation predictions for those two, even though A to Z is also at risk. Don't really know, as per usual, what to make of FOX (seems like I've been saying this for all the days of the week). I would say that Gracepoint is also one and done (I am not even sure if it can be renewed) and that Bones probably comes back to one final season because FOX will continue to need it but it really could go many different ways especially because costs are also a big variable at this point, if not bigger than ratings.

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    43. Thanks for the interest and for stopping by! I don't think it will shrink gradually because I am not that optimistic about Reign, but well, we shall see. For the premieres, I think it will be more than that as well as I think TVD will start at 1.0/1.1 and I see Reign starting at 0.6 but we shall see.

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    44. I don't see why Grey's Anatomy could not be an 8pm show. Desperate Housewives aired for years at 8pm and that show certainly wasn't any less content friendly than GA. 2 Broke Girls, probably the raunchiest show on broadcast TV is airing at 8 and its most successful season was at 8h30.



      I think moving GA up an hour is a great move, moving it to Sundays this late in its age wouldn't be a good move at all IMO. It's much less of a "move" to simply move it up an hour than it would be to move it to a different day. That's just my two scents on it.


      Thanks for the interest.

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    45. Thanks for one more round of interest!

      I again agree for the most part but I am really feeling confident about Men doing much better this year due to the move to 9pm. The fact that it grew so much when moved despite the fact that it was Spring is a very big thing IMO. Other than that I agree.

      One thing that's striking is how much different and unknown this night will look like in Spring:
      - ABC replaces Murder with Secrets and Lies
      - NBC goes with The Blacklist and Allegiance and we still have no clue about the first hour
      - CBS rearranges the comedy block somehow to replace the mcharthys and to probably give the odd couple the big bang lead-in
      - FOX is a huge unknown. Do they do Bones+Backstorm? Idol+Empire? Idol+Backstorm?

      I think it will be ABC>CBS>FOX>NBC in the fall but no idea about it in midseason.

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    46. I just watched the Pilot for A to Z and I found it engaging, so I hope you are wrong about it being in danger. I also gave Selfie a try and couldn't make it through the Pilot. Admittedly I have a HUGE embarrassment squick, so the humiliation of the main character turned me off before I could get into it. I think you thought it was better positioned to succeed, but I'm rooting for A to Z.

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    47. I really liked the Selfie pilot. The A to Z one I have yet to watch but I think I will like it too. I try to not watch them too soon because there is an enormous gap between the first and second episode which I feel takes away from the experience but I won't probably hold on much longer! I am rooting for both shows anyway!

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    48. Haha well there are quite a few shows that I will gladly watch because I genuinely enjoy them, yet I don't get "excited" per se for new episodes... The Blacklist for an example. Or Supernatural for the last few years, or Grimm. I get enjoyment out of watching them but generally just something I don't get "excitement" for or think about very much in between episodes. I'm strange I suppose. But I think it's partly because a lot of the time I'm fantasizing about this show that doesn't exist in my head (one day I'm gonna sit down and actually write it because it would be my favorite show if it was real lol) so only a few shows manage to stay on my mind (Game of Thrones and Teen Wolf being a couple)

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    49. I would not be surprised to see pretty massive declines for The CW...even though I want them to see gains across the board even for shows I don't watch because they have some really great shows at times, and at least a different feel than the other broadcast networks. But as much as they claim that their shows get big numbers on multiple platforms... why not make them available on platforms during the entire summer? They have a deal with Netflix yet we're most likely not going to get any of those shows up on Netflix for viewing until a week or two before the on-TV season premieres. Just think if Reign and The 100 had been made available a month ago on Netflix... that's plenty of time for people to sample it and find out when the next season airs and it could improve their ratings.


      But all their shows are so serialized that none of them have the potential to grow significantly just by random chance like a procedural might over on CBS or something. I just don't get why The CW doesn't try to get as much exposure as possible for their recently completed seasons during the summer.


      I'm hoping Supernatural season 9 will be put up in time for me to watch the season 10 premiere. :/

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    50. I thought DH was always a 9/8c show and it's lead-in at 8/7c was Extreme Makeover Home Edition for several years if I recall correctly but Grey's is going to the top hour at 8/7c correct?

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    51. I'm not optimistic about Reign. I am (or rying to be) realistic about TVD.

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    52. That's what I'm hoping.
      It would be a bit of a letdown if they didn't resolve all those visions of Francis dying that played a huge part in season 1, but it would be a huge risk to kill him off so early in the series. So I'm hoping they find a creative solution (ie. fake his death and keep him locked in the castle for whatever reason).

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    53. Don't know what to make of Fox either, they can be quite unpredictable when it comes to renewals and cancelations. Gracepoint I think can be renewed, as Broadchurch also got a second series. That is, of course, if the ratings are there.

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    54. First off, no offense intended about what I am about to say. But, as you said, you haven't watched it from the end of season 6 onward, so how can you say it should end at 10 if you stopped watching? Why does it matter to you that it ends this season? That being said, I know several people who have not stopped watching it that believe this should be the last season. At the same time, though, I also know several other people who don't want or think it should end this season. Again, I hope that didn't come across snotty.

      Oh, as for the ratings, whether they matter or not, I still want it to do well; especially if this does end up being the last season.

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    55. Yeah, I get what you're saying, but I still hope it does better. :)

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    56. I know it's wrong, and it probably won't happen, but I wouldn't be all that upset if Grey's was the one to suffer the most from football and the 8 o'clock timeslot. Don't get me wrong, I watch it every week, but I want my other shows in that timeslot to do better against TNF.

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    57. You are totally right, it was my mistake. I apologize. The DH point is mute of course. Still, I think there are plenty of other shows that have aired at 8 that are worse than GA, such as the aforementioned 2BG.

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    58. Because 10 seasons is enough. No matter if we're talking Bones, NCIS or any other show.


      The cast still has enough juice to take other, new and fresh roles.

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    59. What *I* don't understand is how Julie can have such great ideas for The Originals - which totally blew me away - yet TVD is floundering. (At least I thought Plec has equal input on both, am I wrong?) Too much emphasis on love drama, and too many villains who are driven purely out of spite at being scorned in their love lives. I mean really.


      At this point I really feel they should just start ripping stories from the newer VD books like where they travel to that other dimension or whatever. But from what I hear season 6 "puts more focus on personal drama"...that's what Julie said in an interview...as if she's too retarded to see that's what the majority of seasons 4 and 5 were as well. Ugh.

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    60. BBT,VD( though season five sucked and season six seems like it will),Reign

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    61. I'll be watching only Gracepoint from Thursday line-up and that's because I have watched BroadChurch. I hope the US version has the same quality as the British one.

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    62. I think Bones will pull 1.7 until FOX inevitably moves the show again *heavy sigh*. It's amazing that we've survived 10 seasons in spite of FOX'S continued scheduling guffaws

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    63. I hope Bones does well this season. Doggone it, Fox keep it in one slot and night for a while! Tired of having to jump all over the schedule to keep up with where it is! I kind of hope this isn't the last season--I love this show! But, if it is, I hope they go out with a great season and a great ending!

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    64. Yeah, I really hope they don't play musical chairs with it again this season either. I also hope this isn't the last season, but if it is I want it to go out on a high note as well.

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