Hey guys!
Once again, I thank everyone who has been participating! I hope this is being as fun for you as it's been for me! I also have got to say that this has turned out to be far more challenging than I thought it would be!
Anyway, back to business! For those of you that are new to the drill, I welcome you to the Fall TV Preview initiative, in which we try to see which one of us is best with the crystal ball in previewing the rating for our favorite shows in the fall! I share my predictions with some analysis and then I invite you to submit your own! Hopefully, at the end of the season, we can all have fun comparing the results!
Previous posts (The prediction forms will be open until the week before the start of the official season which is when some of the stuff starts to premiere, so feel free to go back and submit your predictions):
- Monday Shows
- Tuesday Shows
- Wednesday Shows
Thursdays
Grey's Anatomy (2.69 Last Year)
Lead-in: Local Programming
Lead-out: Scandal
Episode Order: 22-24 episodes
Competition: Thursday Night Football/ The Big Bang Theory & The Millers, Bones, The Biggest Looser/?, The Vampire Diaries
The Pros
• As part of the ABC’s very much touted Shonda Thursday, Grey’s Anatomy is probably receiving more promotion than it did for the last 4 or 5 years. That’s a win!
• Considering the flops that ABC placed at 8pm have often gone sub 1, local programming may actually be the strongest lead-in Grey’s Anatomy has had in years!
• Grey’s likely benefits in opening weeks from facing Thursday Night Football (which it already did last year) and not the regular CBS lineup.
The Cons
• 8pm is a lower viewed hour than 9pm is, especially in the Spring.
• The competition is stronger in literally all fronts than it was last year, as The Big Bang Theory is a much bigger beast than Two and a Half Men, NBC is actually competent at this hour, Bones will be a worthier opponent than Glee and Rake were last year and even the CW happens to have a strong W18-34 draw in the form of The Vampire Diaries!
• Grey’s Anatomy is going to start the season going through what many are calling the most significant loss of a cast member yet. Many hit shows have taken significant hits falling departures like this.
The Verdict: Grey’s Anatomy is one of the most resilient and fabulous players ratings wise of the last decade. The way it has withstood all the lead-in flops that ABC threw at it, as well as multiple competition circulating through the other channels (including once mega hits like NBC must-see TV, CSI, American Idol and others), is truly remarkable. As such, I do think the show should take this timeslot downgrade with class and come nowhere near the flops ABC has had there. However, I also think that this particular year the show’s strength was somehow overvalued because of how weak the competition was in the slot and moving a year after that, especially amidst the loss of a major cast member, is not the best way to highlight the aforementioned strength.
The Guess: 2.11 (-22%)
Potential for Major Deviation: Average
Scandal (3.05 Last Year)
Lead-in: Grey's Anatomy
Lead-out: How to Get Away with Murder
Episode Order: 22-24 episodes
Competition: Thursday Night Football/ Two and a Half Men & The McHarthys, Bad Judge & A to Z/ The Blacklist, Gracepoint/?, Reign
The Pros
• In this day and age, whenever a show in its third season pulls a +22% in raw numbers, there is no way not to be in awe of that. Scandal even managed a finale that was up year to year.
• 9pm is a higher viewed hour than 10pm was
• Despite a move to a more competitive hour, Scandal will have the big advantage of still having the very solid Grey’s Anatomy as a lead-in.
• How to Get Away with Murder may be the hottest new show of the season. Having that as a lead-out is never a bad thing.
• Even if the hour is more competitive than last year’s timeslot, it’s still a relatively easy timeslot, especially during the fall.
• Scandal continues to have as much of ABC’s promotional muscle behind it as it ever did.
The Cons
• Many serialized shows enjoyed early greatness only to suffer from even greater declines (see also Revenge and OUAT’s second seasons for the most recent examples). Scandal could easily follow through.
• Last year, Scandal had a ridiculously low amount of competition against it, as Parenthood was a very low rated drama option and Elementary was one of the weakest CBS weekday hours. Things won’t be as easy this year especially come midseason when NBC moves red-hot The Blacklist to the slot.
• I haven’t found anything stating whether or not Scandal will also enjoy the split season treatment that did it so good last year.
The Verdict: I think the timeslot change has pros and cons but we can ultimately consider it a timeslot upgrade, even factoring in The Blacklist. So I think Scandal is sitting nicely for yet another good season. At the end of the day though, it will probably hinge more on its ability to fail the serialized shows’ trap of losing viewers than on the timeslot.
The Guess: 2.85 (-7%)
Potential for Major Deviation: Average
How to Get Away with Murder (New Show)
Lead-in: Scandal
Lead-out: Local Programming
Episode Order: 16-18 episodes
Competition: Parenthood/Allegiance and Thursday Night Football/Elementary
The Pros
• This may very well be the hottest new show of the season and it has the entire force of ABC’s promotional machine behind it in its full strength!
• Viola Davis is a star!
• This show has the highest rated drama of last season as a lead-in. Said show also happens to be from the same creator and to look highly compatible. That’s a win!
• The timeslot is probably the easiest Monday-Thursday 10pm timeslot competition wise at least during fall, as Elementary continues to limp along and Parenthood remains a low rated option in its final season.
• The show is a limited series which means it will avoid airing episodes in the low rated Spring!
The Cons
• If Allegiance becomes a surprise hit, the timeslot suddenly gets more crowded!
• Airing at 10pm always entails a higher dependence on the lead-in. If Scandal has a slump like other serialized shows have in the past, How to Get Away with Murder may very well fall with it!
The Verdict: As I continue to write these, the more I actually appreciate some of the schedules that networks came up with. This is just another piece of perfect scheduling that literally has everything going for it. It has the highest rated and most compatible lead-in it could have, it has practically no competition, it will avoid the lowest rated portion of the year, it has a big star headlining it and it has ABC full behind it. That has to result in a big win for ABC.
The Guess: Shonda does it again. A 2.65
Potential for Major Deviation: High
The Big Bang Theory (5.07 Last Year)
Lead-in: Local Programming
Lead-out: The Millers (Mom while on Mondays)
Episode Order: 22-24 episodes
Competition: Bones, Grey's Anatomy, The Biggest Looser/? and The Vampire Diaries (The Voice, Dancing with the Stars, Gotham, The Originals and Monday Night Football while on Mondays)
The Pros
• Getting to air on Mondays for the first 6 weeks may prove to be a big advantage, as Monday has higher viewing levels than Thursday.
• For a show that was already this hot two years ago to only have felt 4% last season, that’s a major accomplishment and continues to show promise.
The Cons
• Moving to Mondays may be a good thing if it was going to be a permanent thing but moving back in the middle of the season certainly has potential to affect the ratings negatively.
• Although the show did have a great trend last year, the -4% are mostly a result of the fall being severely up year to year. The year to year comparisons got uglier towards the end of the season. That may be a sign that the show has peaked.
The Verdict: Obviously this show is clearly in a different stratosphere than pretty much everything else on broadcast TV, so it feels ridiculous to even comment on the possibility of it having anything remotely close to a “bad season”. I think this show has peaked from a raw numbers point of view and I think the move in the middle of the fall is bound to affect things up negatively even if it’s just a little bit. So I think we’re past the point of it continuing its ascension, not that it matters all that much, as it continues to live in a different realm.
The Guess: 4.47 (-12%)
Potential for Major Deviation: Average
The Millers (2.63 Last Year)
Lead-in: The Big Bang Theory
Lead-out: Two and a Half Men
Episode Order: 22-24 episodes
Competition: Bones, Grey's Anatomy, The Biggest Looser/? and The Vampire Diaries
The Pros
• Even if it needs to air out of TBBT repeats, let’s please remember that said repeats are still often higher rated than any other CBS comedy and thus a still a spectacular lead-in! That means there won’t be much of a chance for The Millers to get exposed.
• No other comedy competition in the hour.
The Cons
• It will have to air sans The Big Bang Theory originals for at least 5 weeks next year. That’s more than the one week it had to air without them this past season.
• Grey’s Anatomy brings a considerable higher amount of competition than Wonderland did a year ago and it’s not like FOX and NBC aren’t going to be stronger as well.
• The Millers will miss out the first weeks of the season when the viewing levels are the highest.
• Did you see the outright ugly way in which this show finished the season? This show actually went sub 2.0 last year. That’s a horrible way to head into the season.
The Verdict: In my opinion, The Millers was, to put it mightily, the biggest fraud of last season and I think that towards the end of the year, that was getting pretty clear when it was hitting numbers lower than the CBS Monday comedies despite the highest rated show on broadcast television as the lead-in. I don’t even think this show should have been renewed when there was another newbie clearly showing much more promise in a much worse situation, Friends with Better Lives. The question is if it gets exposed as the fraud that it is this year or if it manages to keep this up for another year.
The Guess: 2.00 (-24%)
Potential for Major Deviation: Average
Two and a Half Men (2.27 Last Year)
Lead-in: The Millers
Lead-out: Black-ish
Episode Order: 22-24 episodes (If anyone knows of a shorter final season order please let me know)
Competition: Scandal, Bad Judge & A to Z/ The Blacklist, Gracepoint/? and Reign
The Pros
• Announced final seasons have the potential to seriously ignite ratings! Did you see How I Met Your Mother this year?
• Two and a Half Men got badly hurt for two thirds of last year when it had to air at the bottom of the hour out of the incompatible and low rated The Crazy Ones. Once it got reinstituted as an anchor, the show came back strong proving it was still a very competent player. Now that it has the chance of airing for the full year at 9pm, that strength shows up right away and the year to year comparisons can only gain from it!
• Come midseason, it will be the only comedy airing here.
The Cons
• The hour is more competitive now than it was a year ago with Scandal and later The Blacklist populating the hour, while Bad Judge also appears at least a stronger option than Michael J. Fox was.
• This may not be the type of show that really benefits from a final season announcement seeing as it doesn’t really have a long term serialized storyline going for it.
• Two and a Half Men will miss out the first weeks of the season when the viewing levels are the highest.
The Verdict: I am optimistic about this because the results seemed to improve so much once the show moved to the 9pm anchor role and that was in spite of spring when viewing levels are much lower. The final season thing also shouldn’t hurt even if I expect nothing on the sorts of what happened with Mother last year. Sure, the show will have more competition, but I don’t think this is the type of program to really hurt with the two drama powerhouses in the hour. I think it will go out quite well.
The Guess: 2.45(+8%)
Potential for Major Deviation: Low
The McHarthys (New Show)
Lead-in: Two and a Half Men
Lead-out: Elementary
Episode Order: 13 (potentially 22-24) episodes
Competition: Scandal, Bad Judge & A to Z/ The Blacklist, Gracepoint/? and Reign
The Pros
• Two and a Half Men is a competent and very compatible lead-in.
• As the only new comedy on CBS’s roster, the show should have plenty of opportunists to enjoy promotional support, especially since it’s premiering later when CBS has no new show to promote and could also enjoy plenty of Thursday Night Football push.
• Come midseason, it will be the only comedy airing here.
The Cons
• This show is not exactly bathing in buzz right now and it’s not like critical reception is strong either.
• Mike and Molly is waiting in the can with 22 episodes ready to go. Those will have to someplace and this is clearly the easiest one.
• The McHarthys will miss out the first weeks of the season when the viewing levels are the highest.
The Verdict: I am not a buyer here. I could see it maybe lucking out and turning into a solid yet unspectacular type of player Mike and Molly esque but I think it's much more likely that we end up with a We Are Men/Partners kind of dud. With Mike and Molly’s 22 episodes waiting in the can, this one will be on a short leash from CBS from early on and premiering right against Scandal’s sure to be big November sweeps episodes shouldn’t do it much good either.
The Guess: Equals Partners from two years ago (after accounting for the general decline). A 1.66
Potential for Major Deviation: Average
Elementary (1.73 Last Year)
Lead-in: The McHarthys
Lead-out: Local Programming
Episode Order: 22-24 episodes
Competition:How to Get Away with Murder/Secrets and Lies and Parenthood/Allegiance
The Pros
• Elementary had to compete head to head with the highest rated drama of the season last year. While How to Get Away with Murder may also be a worthy opponent, it should still be an easier option.
• Starting out later may prove to be a good thing for Elementary as it will allow it to run in a straighter way while also benefiting from going against reruns from the other networks more often.
The Cons
• Scandal may be gone but Murder is still a powerful opponent. On the other hand, NBC may get its act together at midseason with Allegiance, so at the end of the day, Elementary may have as much competition as it did last year.
• The McHarthys may be an even worse lead-in than Two and a Half Men was for most of last year.
• Elementary will miss out the first weeks of the season when the viewing levels are the highest.
• This show finished the season in a scary fashion, hitting a new outright low of 1.4 for the finale. That’s just the worst way to head into the season.
The Verdict: This show may have gotten a bad raw deal last year with bad and incompatible lead-ins while having to face very stiff competition in the form of Scandal but I still think it should have done better than it did particularly during winter when it didn’t have Scandal to compete against. The truth of the matter is that I just don’t think this is a strong show and while I understand why CSI was the one demoted for the weekend rotation, I don’t think this show deserved to get another year on a midweek slot. And I think ratings will eventually show that.
The Guess: 1.42 (-18%)
Potential for Major Deviation: Low
Bad Judge (New Show)
Lead-in: The Biggest Looser
Lead-out: A to Z
Episode Order: 13 (potentially 22-24) episodes
Competition: Scandal, Thursday Night Football/ Two and a Half Men, Gracepoint/? and Reign
The Pros
• Kate Walsh is a big TV star and could attract a crowd!
• For the first 6 weeks of the season, Bad Judge will be the only comedy in the hour! That’s a big advantage.
• The Biggest Looser should provide a solid, albeit unspectacular, lead-in.
The Cons
• It’s NBC, it’s a comedy and it’s Thursday Night. Need I to give a history lesson of how those have gone lately?
• Kate Walsh may be a TV star but the audience that knows her and would show up for this could be too busy checking out the Shonda shows from which she emerged on ABC.
• Two and a Half Men is still a very capable comedy and having it as an opponent is not an ideal situation. On top of that, it’s not like Scandal is easy competition either.
• The Blacklist is taking over the slot come midseason which means Bad Judge would have to overachieve to make NBC go out of its way and save it.
The Verdict: This feels like something that NBC hasn’t tried yet and that it could work at least better than the horror that was NBC Thursday last year with Sean and Michael J. Fox. However, that’s not really saying that much. I think having the first six weeks of the season without comedy competition will do it good and provide it a good chance of sampling but I am not sure it will be enough. I say it’s not a spectacular fail but doesn’t really do enough to warrant a back 9 either.
The Guess: 1.17
Potential for Major Deviation: Low
A to Z (New Show)
Lead-in: Bad Judge
Lead-out: Parenthood
Episode Order: 13 (potentially 22-24) episodes
Competition: Scandal, Thursday Night Football/ The McHarthys, Gracepoint/? and Reign
The Pros
• Cristin Milioti was the best received thing about How I Met Your Mother’s final season which means there is a good chance that part of Mother’s old audience decides to check out this show for me.
• Like fellow newbie Bad to Judge, it will be the only comedy in the hour for the first weeks of the season.
• If The McHarthys proves to be a flop, comedy competition will be reduced for the rest of the season as well.
• It’s a good old romantic comedy and we haven’t really gotten many of those on TV lately. Could be that there is an audience for this.
The Cons
• If Bad Judge flops big, there won’t be much that A to Z can do at the bottom of the hour. And it’s not like that’s the most compatible pairing out there either.
• Scandal as a competition is never a pleasant thing.
• The Blacklist is taking over the slot come midseason which means Bad Judge would have to overachieve to make NBC go out of its way and save it.
• Once again… it’s a comedy airing on NBC Thursday Night. Enough said.
The Verdict: I am cautiously optimistic about this one. I think Cristin Milioti is a good star to have headlining a comedy right now and I think the timeslot could be much worse competition wise. I also think the concept could honestly attract a crowd. I don’t however feel very good about the Bad Judge pairing particularly since this one will have to endure a bottom of the hour situation. I say it grows a few ticks from Bad Judge showing enough promise to prompt NBC to try something else with it, either a direct flip with Judge during fall or a move to a different timeslot during Spring and probably comes down to the bubble at the end of the season.
The Guess: 1.35
Potential for Major Deviation: Average
Parenthood (1.27 Last Year)
Lead-in: A to Z
Lead-out: Local Programming
Episode Order: 13 episodes
Competition:Thursday Night Football/ Elementary and How to Get Away with Murder
The Pros
• It’s an announced final season for a show that seems to always have had a very loyal and sustained following. It’s unlikely a show like that would fall any further now and may even spike a bit!
• There is a chance for improvement with Scandal out of the loop!
• Last year, Parenthood had a comically bad lead-in from The Michael J. Fox. If A to Z manages to do a bit better than that, which shouldn’t be all that hard, Parenthood could take advantage and improve a bit too with the greater lead-in support.
The Cons
• Parenthood didn’t really benefit last year from Scandal’s absence during the winter when ABC was airing reruns in that hour, so why should it benefit now that ABC is airing How to Get Away with Murder?
• This isn’t the type of show that benefits from an announced final season, so it won’t really go out with a bang.
The Verdict: Parenthood was so stable last year that I don’t see any reason why it should dip now that everyone knows it is ending and that it has a better lead-in and slightly less formidable competition. I think it manages to be up a tick even in raw numbers.
The Guess: 1.29 (+2%)
Potential for Major Deviation: Low
Bones (1.72 Last Year)
Lead-in: Local Programming
Lead-out: Gracepoint
Episode Order: 22-24 episodes
Competition: Grey's Anatomy, Thursday Night Football/ The Big Bang Theory & The Millers, The Biggest Looser/?, The Vampire Diaries
The Pros
• Bones has survived so many timeslots and moves that this one really shouldn’t be any different. It just has one of the most loyal audiences in the history of broadcast TV.
• While there is tough competition in hour, Bones may not be that much compatible with the CBS comedies. Grey’s Anatomy should be a tougher beast but Bones has went up against it in the past and survived it.
• Last year, there was some serious Spring damage but that could have just been the result of a second in-season move. Now settled in the same timeslot from the beginning of the season, Bones stands a chance of correcting some of that damage.
The Cons
• What happened last Spring may have been the result of FOX jerking around the show too much within one season but it was still real long term damage to the show. It will be tough to come back from that.
• The Big Bang Theory is not the most compatible competition one can think of but basically every show out there is compatible in some way with TBBT since it has such a mass appeal. Bone will be no different. Add in the cross audience it has with Grey’s Anatomy and Bones actually has even more competition than last year when it was up against The Voice and DWTS!
• God knows what FOX will do with this show come Spring!
The Verdict: While I do think that Bones indeed has one of the most loyal audiences out there and that the way it has dealt with its first in season move last year (to freaking Fridays) was truly remarkable, I also believe that its Spring damage was in part real and not very easy to come back from. Bones is however a procedural and those have the easiest time to come back from slumps like this. The question is whether or not a tough competitive environment is the proper place to recover from a bad Spring.
The Guess: I don’t think it is, but I think the show still holds ok, posting raw numbers on par with what it was doing on Spring for most of the season. 1.57 (-9%)
Potential for Major Deviation: Average
Gracepoint (New Show)
Lead-in: Bones
Lead-out: Local Programming
Episode Order: 10 episodes
Competition: Scandal, Thursday Night Football/ Two and a Half Men & The McHarthys, Bad Judge & A to Z/ The Blacklist and Reign
The Pros
• It’s a self-contained story that will run straight through and only for 10 weeks. That should compel viewers to stick around for the ride.
• Bones should provide an ok and actually quite compatible lead-in.
• While Scandal is tough to deal with, that’s pretty much the only serious competition the show will have to worry about, considering neither the NBC or the CBS comedies should be that high rated or have that much overlap.
• Airing its entire run in the fall, when viewing levels are at its highest, is a good thing.
• This is a well received show by the critics that has a top notch cast!
The Cons
• Doesn’t really matter much that critics love this if the only people that follow what critics say have already watched the original and have no interest in round 2!
• Bones may be compatible but if those spring drops continue it won’t do this show much good.
• Scandal as competition is never a good place to be for any show, especially a newbie.
• Most of these murder-across-the-season type of shows that cable has tried out during the last seasons have been well received by the critics but not so much by the audience (see also The Killing). Will this one really be any different?
The Verdict: I don’t have any strong feeling here. I don’t think it is a big hit by any means but I also think it has less downside potential than something like Red Band Society which could be outright rejected. A traditional crime show like this ought to attract at least a certain audience and it’s not like there are many opportunities for that audience to bail post premiere. I see it being a modest performer that does so-so and probably accomplishes FOX’s deal of focusing on another nights during fall, but not enough to come back a year later (I am not even sure if that’s a possibility with the show format).
The Guess: 1.40
Potential for Major Deviation: Average
The Vampire Diaries (1.02 Last Year)
Lead-in: Local Programming
Lead-out: Reign
Episode Order: 22-24 episodes
Competition: Grey's Anatomy, Bones, Thursday Night Football/ The Big Bang Theory & The Millers and The Biggest Looser/?
The Pros
• Season 5 was widely regarded as a mess creatively and that was the reason live ratings dropped. But it’s usual for long running shows to have some sloppy seasons along the way, that doesn’t mean everything after that will be as bad. As long as The Vampire Diaries manages to have a better season creatively, it should recover some lost ground.
The Cons
• It was consensual that the CW was having a bad spring last year as all shows were dropping. So there shouldn’t be any particular reason of concern for The Vampire Diaries, except that unlike other shows the drop was pretty sustained. There were the lows 1s in the fall, the 1s in late fall, the 0.9s in winter and then the 0.7 and 0.8s in spring. That’s a very dangerous trend and the finale didn’t even show signs of improving on that. Can a serialized show recover from that?
• Many TVD lead out shows failed throughout the years because they were targeting an W18-34 audience which happened to be already taken since there was a mammoth reigning over that audience in the slot in the form of Grey’s Anatomy. With Grey’s Anatomy now moving up an hour, it will be TVD’s turn to bleed.
The Verdict: It’s pretty tough to envision a recovery from the horror that was the Spring Season of this show. At some point, the episodes were even down 30% year to year! Having similar skewing Grey’s Anatomy on the way while trying to make a recovery isn’t also a very nice proposition. I don’t think it goes very well for this show.
The Guess: 0.80 (-22%)
Potential for Major Deviation: Average
Reign (0.58 Last Year)
Lead-in: The Vampire Diaries
Lead-out: Local Programming
Episode Order: 22-24 episodes
Competition: Scandal, Thursday Night Football/ Two and a Half Men & The McHarthys, Gracepoint/?, Bad Judge & A to Z/ The Blacklist
The Pros
• Reign’s drop at season’s end could have simply been the result of a very underachieving The Vampire Diaries and CW as a whole. With the CW looking brighter during fall and TVD recovering some lost ground, Reign is able to patch things up.
• Unlike other TVD lead-outs, Reign was never sampled in a significant manner. That means there is potential for a sophomore bounce!
The Cons
• Reign ended the season hitting an outright new low after trending downwards during spring despite a very solid winter. That’s always a horrible way to head into the new season!
• As The Vampire Diaries continues to slide, Reign could continue to come right down with it.
• Last year, the show had the CW supporting it in full force promotion wise. No such luck this year as those resources are allocated elsewhere.
• Grey’s Anatomy may be gone from the slot but Scandal isn’t an easy opponent either.
The Verdict: Reign is a odd case because despite starting the season as the clear underdog among all three CW newbies, it held up okay enough in the fall to justify a back nine, showed quite some promise during winter (particularly in its first episode without an original TVD lead-in) and then collapsed during spring. I think a lot of the winter spike can be attributed to facing the taste instead of grey’s anatomy while the spring decline probably comes down to how much the vampire diaries declined. But where does it leave us for next season? I think it holds better than The Vampire Diaries but really doesn’t do anything worth writing home about and certainly nothing that makes a still likely Season 3 look up promising.
The Guess: 0.48 (-17%)
Potential for Major Deviation: Low
Now it's time for you to make your predictions! Click HERE to submit your predictions!
What did you think of these predictions? Do you agree with my thoughts? Share your predictions and thoughts below on the comment sections!
Also, what are your viewing plans for Thursdays during this fall? This is a crazy day for me! My priority will be the Shonda-trio (Grey's Anatomy, Scandal, How to Get Away with Murder) all the way. I have also turned into a big Reign fan and I will also continue with TVD even though I may not necessarily do it during the season. Then there is also The Big Bang Theory and I am also very much interested in both of the NBC comedies. Finally, I also want to try Graceland and I continue to watch Bones, although it may also not be during the season but through summer catch-up. What about you? What will you be watching?
Thank you for reading and participating ;) I will be back tomorrow with the final round for the Friday and Sunday shows, at the end of the day!
