Last day! As usual, I thank everyone who has been participating! I hope this is being as fun for you as it's been for me! I will probably be doing a wrap up post tomorrow to sum up all the guesses!
Anyway, back to business! For those of you that are new to the drill, I welcome you to the Fall TV Preview initiative, in which we try to see which one of us is best with the crystal ball in previewing the rating for our favorite shows in the fall! I share my predictions with some analysis and then I invite you to submit your own! Hopefully, at the end of the season, we can all have fun comparing the results!
Previous posts (The prediction forms will be open until the week before the start of the official season which is when some of the stuff starts to premiere, so feel free to go back and submit your predictions):
- Monday Shows
- Tuesday Shows
- Wednesday Shows
- Thursday Shows
Fridays and Sundays
Once Upon a Time (2.19 Last Year)
Lead-in: Local Programming
Lead-out: Resurrection/ American Crime
Episode Order: 22
Competition:Sunday Night Football/?, Madam Secretary, The Simpsons & Brooklyn Nine-Nine
The Pros
• Season 3-B was practically even year to year and that’s after accounting for the general broadcast decline! That suggests a very positive trend and makes for a very promising Season 4 outlook!
• The split season treatment that did wonders for the show will continue this year.
• Even if I am not sure how relevant that is since most of the competition on this night comes from cable, broadcast wise the competition is likely to get easier with CBS replacing TAR with Madam Secretary.
• Frozen has created a considerable amount of hype for the show during this summer.
The Cons
• Even if 3-B had a wonderful trend, the season as a whole was still down 20%. For a serialized show like OUAT, that’s still very concerning regardless of the spin!
• OUAT’s audience is certainly a fickle one that will not watch if it doesn’t like the current arc. So while Frozen appears to have created enough hype around it, a poor execution may push viewers away. Besides, we still have no idea what’s the arc to be covered in 4-B, so there is potential for one as poorly received as the never land one.
The Verdict: Maybe I am being biased here but I tend to think that the show really got its act together in 3-B, and the ratings do support this. I think OUAT will be ok during fall and maybe even have some episodes up year to year. Perhaps its greatest challenge will be finding an arc worthy enough of 4-B, when the comparisons will get trickier. I say it eventually manages to do so and that the ship gets steadied, with OUAT taking a drop on par with the overall broadcasters.
The Guess: 1.97 (-10%)
Potential for Major Deviation: Average
Resurrection (2.51 Last Year)
Lead-in: Once Upon a Time
Lead-out: Revenge
Episode Order: 15-16 episodes
Competition: Sunday Night Football, The Good Wife, Family Guy & Mulaney, The Walking Dead, Homeland, Boardwalk Empire, Downtown Abbey
The Pros
• Getting to air in the fall when viewing levels are its highest, is a much better situation than airing entirely in the spring like Resurrection did last year.
The Cons
• Did you see that downwards trend during 8 episodes? Resurrection was trending downwards FAST and there’s certainly potential for that to continue heading into the fall
• Resurrection benefited from having the entire ABC promotional machine focused on it during Spring! No such luck this year as ABC focuses all its efforts on Shonda-Thursday and the other new shows, leaving Resurrection pretty much needing to fend for itself. And Resurrection is still a pretty much new show to have a loyal audience to carry through after summer hiatus!
• Competition in this crazy slot certainly never gets easier.
The Verdict: While I do think the Season 1 drops were a bit overblown out of proportion (there were a number of weeks in which it really didn’t fluctuate more than 1 tenth, which IMO is the same as being stable), they were still sizable, so I cannot ignore them either. I am also very concerned about the effect that the lack of promotion will have on the show. Still, I do think the show is at least as strong as Revenge was when airing here a year ago and that airing in the fall will be enough of an advantage for this to work out okay (though far from the promise the first episode showed).
The Guess: 1.80 (-28%)
Potential for Major Deviation: Average
Revenge (1.55 Last Year)
Lead-in: Resurrection/American Crime
Lead-out: Local Programming
Episode Order: 22 episodes
Competition: Sunday Night Football, CSI, The Talking Dead/?, The Affair/?, The Newsroom/?
The Pros
• The Season 3 finale got a better word of mouth and critical love than Season 2 and 3 together ever did, so if there was ever a time in which it was possible to lure back viewers that would be now.
• Airing at 10pm out of Resurrection/American Crime and away from some of the cable heavy lifters might still be a better proposition for Revenge than airing at 9pm out of OUAT and facing the likes of TWD et all, even in light of the disappointing late spring results Revenge had.
The Cons
• As much as I want to believe that viewers will be back, how often does that really happen in heavily serialized shows like this? Once gone, it’s gone, so Revenge will need to work with what it has left and it’s not much.
• Being at 10pm means that the dependence on the lead-in is stronger than ever. If Resurrection collapses major time, Revenge may come down with it. Besides, it will have American Crime as lead-in during Spring, which may be another Resurrection as easily as it could be another Red Widow!
• Being down 28% year to year is just a horrible trend. And unlike fellow Sunday show OUAT, Revenge’s trend didn’t exactly sort itself in Spring, which means the problems should carry through next season.
• Revenge may be away from some cable heavy lifters, but it’s not like the hour doesn’t have plenty of competition either. Besides, even broadcast wise, CSI should provide a fiercer competition than The Mentalist represented last year.
The Verdict: I want to believe that Revenge will be a stronger show now, but like I’ve said, the year to year trend is not exactly inspiring. If the lead-ins help up well and if the season is as good creatively as the finale made it sound I could see it having a good year but those are two pretty big ifs to stand for and I don't feel confident enough to bet on both of them happening. I think Revenge does ok in the fall propped up by a high 1s Resurrection but ends up giving those gains away come spring when American Crime takes over as its lead-in.
The Guess: 1.26 (-19%)
Potential for Major Deviation: Average
Brooklyn Nine-Nine (1.50 Last Year)
Lead-in: The Simpsons
Lead-out: Family Guy
Episode Order: 22-24 episodes
Competition: Sunday Night Football/?, Madam Secretary, Once Upon a Time
The Pros
• The Simpsons is easily a stronger lead-in than Dads or New Girl were last year.
• B99 was gathering some momentum during winter in its last Tuesday 8h30 episodes last year. I believe what really hurt it last year was the pairing with the super incompatible New Girl. A pairing with male skewing shows is just what the doctor ordered so B99 could potentially gain big from a move to the cartoon block.
• Sundays are an overall higher viewed day and while they usually also carry more competition, that front is surprisingly light on comedies which means B99 may have a legit upgrade situation here.
• B99 was one of the best received shows from last season. That means it’s one of the likeliest candidates to have a sophomore bounce as people get caught up.
The Cons
• The cartoons may be more compatible skew wise but may also not mix well with live action comedies. This is a big gamble which entails big chances of it not working at all.
• B99 received the highest possible sampling opportunity a show might have for in the form of a post super bowl slot and didn’t really take advantage. Chances of additional sampling coming through are slim at best.
• A male skewing show going against Sunday Night Football is never a good thing.
The Verdict: I think it’s all about retention from The Simpsons. During the last years, Bob’s Burgers has been around the 70% retention mark. That show isn’t exactly a hit but I don’t buy that a live action comedy will be able to retain more than a cartoon either, so I give it a chance of the same 70% retention. That should put it squarely on the bubble for another round, if only because the entire future of FOX live action comedies is so blurry right now.
The Guess: 1.40 (-7%)
Potential for Major Deviation: Average
Mulaney (New Show)
Lead-in: Family Guy
Lead-out: Local Programming
Episode Order: 22-24 episodes
Competition: 13 (potentially 22-24) episodes
The Pros
• Family Guy is probably the highest rated lead-in on FOX right now
• Like with B99, comedy competition should not be an issue
The Cons
• As with B99, the compatibility between the live action comedies and the cartoons remains to be proven and could very easily go wrong.
• Critics haven’t easily been much appreciative of this pilot.
• This show might not have much comedy competition, but there is still plenty of competition, particularly from Sunday Night Football and from a little show called The Walking Dead which should be able to retain a huge portion of that male audience that this show seeks to capture.
The Verdict: I am not sold on this one at all as a long term thing, but I do think Family Guy will do it enough good to avoid a pull-me now type of situation. I imagine it will be a Dads type of player that will be clear from early on that will not make it but will never do bad enough to embarrass FOX either.
The Guess: 1.30
Potential for Major Deviation: Low
Madam Secretary (New Show)
Lead-in: 60 Minutes
Lead-out: The Good Wife
Episode Order: 13 (potentially 22-24) episodes
Competition: Sunday Night Football/?, Madam Secretary, The Simpsons & Brooklyn Nine-Nine
The Pros
• The show has a top notch cast and is well received by the critics. It is widely regarded as the successor of The Good Wife, easily the most critically acclaimed show on broadcast television.
• For all the talk that The Good Wife gets of being a flop, its first season was actually solid. Maybe Madam Secretary can capture the same amount of initial interest.
• Slotted between football inflated 60-Minutes and The Good Wife is not such a bad proposition for an old skewing show that tries to appeal to the same audience that watches… well… The Good Wife and 60 Minutes.
The Cons
• The Good Wife may have been high rated back in the day but today it certainly isn’t. Madam Secretary could simply post current TGW-esque ratings.
• I am not really sure how easily can you really “make” another TGW happen. It will be very easy for this show to disappoint and be perceived as a cheap imitation of TGW.
• 60 Minutes may be high rated when there is football to inflate it, but in other days? And that will be the lead-in that Madam Secretary will be getting.
• Can a new show really survive all the delays caused by the sports’ preemptions that so famously often affect CBS’s Sunday lineup?
The Verdict: I am not buying this one. Truth to be told, if there was ever a slot in which it could potentially work, this would be it. I cannot think of any other place in which it would have a shot and CBS certainly went to great deals to put it here (such as moving TAR to Fridays) which shows at least that they are confident about their product. But I am not seeing an audience for this kind of show. I am especially not seeing an audience for this kind of show sticking around when all the delays start making it less obvious to watch it live. I say it is a tossup between airing the whole 13 episodes or being pulled before November sweeps.
The guess: 1.38
Potential for Major Deviation: High (I think it’s quite possible that I am being very optimistic here and that we are looking at a sub 1.0 level)
The Good Wife (1.42 Last Year)
Lead-in: Madam Secretary
Lead-out: CSI
Episode Order: 22 episodes
Competition: Sunday Night Football, Resurrection/American Crime, Family Guy & Mulaney, The Walking Dead/ Mad Men, Homeland/?, Boardwalk Empire/?/The Good Wife, Downtown Abbey
The Pros:
• If Madam Secretary flops badly, The Good Wife may get to air at 8pm right after 60 Minutes, which could very easily prove to be a better situation for this show than airing at 9 (often 10 with all the delays).
The Cons:
• The Good Wife was pulling low 1s in the Spring and that was with a TAR lead-in. Without TAR, it may get even worse!
• The show ended the season on a downright scary note. If things continue on the fall, sub 1.0 levels are ahead of it!
• As always on Sundays, competition will certainly not get any easier. On broadcast particularly, Resurrection should still prove to be a more complicated opponent than Revenge was a year ago.
The Verdict: One thing to keep in mind is that last year the show fell 14% and that was amidst a year in which it shook its plot back and forth to the core multiple times. In a way, I think those 14% are actually inflated and would be worse in another year. I don’t think it will be able to sustain that fire it had creatively this year so I think is ratings fall a bit more, especially with a worse lead-in.
The Guess: 1.18 (-17%)
Potential for Major Deviation: Average
CSI (1.89 Last Year)
Lead-in: The Good Wife
Lead-out: Local Programming
Episode Order: 22-24 episodes
Competition: Sunday Night Football, CSI, The Talking Dead/?, The Affair/?, The Newsroom/?
The Pros:
• I’ve got nothing
The Cons:
• The show was already trending down bad (it went -16% and -17% in its last seasons) on Wednesdays and it will now have to withstand a move on top of that. Not ideal.
• Going from the ultra compatible and high rated Criminal Minds to the low rated and likely not nearly as compatible The Good Wife? That will be tough!
• Like fellow predecessors CSI Miami and The Mentalist, CSI will have to delay with delayed times quite often, which will sometimes even cause it to air almost exclusively out of primetime.
The Verdict: Probably the best thing that can happen to CSI is having Madam Secretary flop so hard that it gets to air at 9pm and lead into The Mentalist at 10. I am not sure how to really include that scenario into these predictions though so I guess I will just try to be a bit more optimistic than I would otherwise with the final number. CSI will obviously have a very tough season ahead in year to year comparisons and depending on what happens with the rest of CBS Sunday (one might argue that Madam Secretary, The Good Wife and CSI are all at risk of not returning), I would not be outright shocked if it’s over. But it likely still squeezes a final season order in this slot.
The Guess: The Mentalist and CSI Miami fell practically by the same percentage in their Sunday moves, so it’s not hard to venture into a guess here, even if I upgrade it a few notches due that 9pm possibility. A 1.33 (-30%)
Potential for Major Deviation: Average
Last Man Standing (1.33 Last Year)
Lead-in: Local Programming
Lead-out: Cristella
Episode Order: 22-24 episodes
Competition: Masterchef Jr/?, The Amazing Race/?, Dateline, Whose Line is It Anyway/?
The Pros
• Last Man Standing managed to have a drop only on par with the overall broadcast decline last year and that was despite being compared with some very early episodes from the previous season when Malibu Country was premiering. That’s a great trend!
• Cristela, as a multicam, has the potential to be a far better companionship show for LMS than The Neighbors was last season!
• Still no other comedy competition in the hour!
The Cons
• Cristela could turn out to be an even bigger dud than The Neighbors was!
• The Amazing Race could significantly turn the slot into a more competitive one.
The Verdict: I have a good feeling here. Last Man Standing did a very good job last year in what was a tough situation with a low rated and incompatible comedy as companionship last year. The -11% don’t even value it enough because the initial episodes from two years ago were very inflated and also because two years ago the show didn’t have to air in the last months of the season, aka the lowest rated portion of the year. I say it takes an even smaller drop this year.
The Guess: 1.26 (-5%)
Potential for Major Deviation: Low
Cristela (New Show)
Lead-in: Last Man Standing
Lead-out: Shark Tank
Episode Order: 13 (potentially 22-24) episodes
Competition: Masterchef Jr/?, The Amazing Race/?, Dateline, Whose Line is It Anyway/?
The Pros
• Last Man Standing is a good for Friday comedy lead-in and could be highly compatible with Cristela.
• No comedy competition in the hour!
The Cons
• Malibu Country was probably the most compatible a show could ever be with LMS and that one was cancelled after a season. Why would Cristela be any different?
• LMS may be a good enough for Friday lead-in but that’s not really saying much, is there?
The Verdict: I feel a bit “meh” here. I don’t think this show will be able to build or even equal LMS, so it should all come down to retention. I say it has a better one than The Neighbors but not a better one than Malibu Country. Probably gets cancelled.
The Guess: 1.01
Potential for Major Deviation: Low
Grimm (1.40 Last Year)
Lead-in: Dateline
Lead-out: Constantine
Episode Order: 22-24 episodes
Competition:Hawaii Five-0, Shark Tank, Fox Repeats/?, America's Next Top Model/?
The Pros
• Grimm had a -14% season last year but that’s actually much more positive than it looks since it’s being compared against a bunch of Monday and Tuesday episodes from two years ago! The apples to apples comparisons would result in a far more favorable -10.5%. That’s a good trend to head into a 4th season!
• Constantine may very well prove to be a much better companion show than Dracula or Hannibal were (it’s not like the bar is that all that high anyway!)
• Grimm got hurt last year when NBC randomly decided to throw it some low rated specials as 8pm lead-ins. Hopefully they’ve learned their lesson this year.
The Cons
• The overall trend may have been good but behind it there was still plenty of reason for concern, not only because its numbers were all over the place but also because some episodes were actually down almost 30% year to year.
• By the end of the third season, Grimm was turning more serialized than it ever was. As always, that entails the risk of losing viewers!
The Verdict: Grimm was a total roller coaster ratings wise last season. While I worry about some of the individual results, if we really try most of them can be explained by particular factors (big movie premieres, horrible specials as lead-ins, particularly low rated Fridays) and, like I’ve said, the overall -10.5% are a positive result for a third year show. I also think Constantine will be a better lead-out, regardless of what ends up happening to it. So I say Grimm does ok in its forth year.
The Guess: 1.23 (-12%)
Potential for Major Deviation: Average
Constantine (New Show)
Lead-in: Grimm
Lead-out: Local Programming
Episode Order: 22-24 episodes
Competition: Blue Bloods and 20/20
The Pros
• Constantine is probably the Friday show with the most hype since… well I am not even sure.
• Grimm is a very compatible and very competent for Friday lead-in.
• There really shouldn’t be much overlap between a heavily genre show like this and something like Blue Bloods or 20/20.
The Cons
• It feels like we were all making the same compatibility argument with Dracula a year ago and we all know how that turned out.
• Airing at Friday 10pm means dependence on lead-in is huge. If Grimm continues its roller coaster, there won’t be much Constantine can do.
• The show is going through some considerable post pilot changes. That’s not a very good sign of what’s to come creatively.
The Verdict: It’s tough to grasp what NBC’s expectations for this one are. I feel like it will be able to perform better than Dracula because that show seemed to be so poorly received last year that it would be tough to make it as wrong twice in a row but I am not sure if “better” will be enough to warrant a renewal. I think it gets a nice retention out of Grimm and hangs in there for a full season and is a bubble one at the upfronts. This being said, this is the type of situation in which a sudden explosion to big Friday hit wouldn’t surprise me.
The Guess: 1.11
Potential for Major Deviation: High
Hawaii Five-0 (1.42 Last Year)
Lead-in: The Amazing Race/?
Lead-out: Blue Bloods
Episode Order: 25 episodes
Competition: Grimm, Fox Repeats/?, Shark Tank and America's Next Top Model/?
The Pros
• Hawaii Five-0 handled with a Friday move with much more class than many (myself including) were expecting and its trend throughout the season was actually quite good too, so there really isn’t any reason for concern here.
• The Amazing Race is a higher rated and younger skewing lead-in than Undercover Boss was, so Hawaii Five-0 can take advantage of that and maybe even grow a bit.
• A full year of syndication exposure might start to kick in for H50 and to bring in some additional viewers!
The Cons
• We still do not know what CBS is planning to place at 8pm come winter and spring, so it may be that H50 ends up with a worse lead-in than Boss for the second half of the season.
The Verdict: Like I said, H50 handled last year’s tough move much better than I ever thought it could and I say that as a fan of the show. It’s also not like last year’s numbers were front-loaded, as H50 was pretty constant throughout the year, once you account for spring drops. So I don’t really see any reason why it would collapse now that it has a better and probably more compatible lead-in.
The Guess: 1.34 (-6%)
Potential for Major Deviation: Low
Blue Bloods (1.40 Last Year)
Lead-in: Hawaii Five-0
Lead-out: Local Programming
Episode Order: 22-25 episodes
Competition: Constantine and 20/20
The Pros
• Blue Bloods, in its 4th season, managed to be even year to year. That’s an incredible and very promising trend.
• If Hawaii Five-0 manages to have an even better season with the new TAR lead-in, Blue Bloods could benefit as well.
• The show is about to start airing in syndication and, as a procedural, is very well positioned to capture new viewers along the way!
The Cons
• Constantine may prove to be a harder opponent than Hannibal and Dracula were last year.
The Verdict: Going 0% in a forth season is a great accomplishment! Hawaii Five-0 really seemed to reignite the demo interest on this show and I see The Amazing Race’s presence on Fridays being able to continue that effect for one more season. That, aligned with this show’s old skewing and loyal audience, could even translate into a bit of growth this season.
The Guess: 1.35 (-4%)
Potential for Major Deviation: Low
Now it's time for you to make your predictions! Click HERE to submit your predictions!
What did you think of these predictions? Do you agree with my thoughts? Share your predictions and thoughts below on the comment sections!
Also, what are your viewing plans for Fridays and Sundays during this fall? My Fridays are pretty light, it will be Grimm and H50 for me only so far, and I will also be trying out Constantine. Sundays are a different beast though. The Walking Dead is my favorite show on the air so that's a big priority. Once upon a Time and Revenge are also some of my absolute favorites so they will also be there. I will also watch The Good Wife, Brooklyn Nine-Nine and Homeland. Resurrection is a tossup for me, I will probably catch up later during Christmas or something like that. What about you? What will you be watching?
Thank you for reading and participating in all these! I will keep bringing these up throughout the season as mid season shows are announced! Next one should be around November sweeps before State of Affairs and others premiere. I may do a post tomorrow summarizing it all!
I really, really hope that Revenge manages to keep mid to high 1s this season; the finale got so much love in all fronts that I certainly see it as a possibility, but is not that likely. I'm praying for the best; I want 5 seasons and I would love if the last 2 were ok rated.
ReplyDeleteAs for OUAT, I believe it can gather a lot of momentum with the Frozen story arc and inject some ratings into Resurrection, causing a lot of synergy for the fall in the whole ABC Sunday block.
While I understand why ABC is promoting Thursdays so hard, I hope the promos for Sundays come soon and ABC spends some energy on them; they won most Sundays on the spring, even with the uneven numbers, and that's worth pushing for: the can get a night of 2s with their OUAT-Resurrection-Revenge line up, they just have to promote it properly.
On ABC, I expect LMS to hang in there, but Cristela doesn't have a good shot. On sundays, OUAT has come back to a steady trend, league-average drop will probably happen, I expect Resurrection to collapse, it is my favorite candidate to a sophomore slump despite airing on fall. Revenge will fall above the league-average, it may be enough for a 5th season.
ReplyDeleteOn CBS, the friday lineup is very old skewing, so people will still watch them, they'll only lose the ones turning 50, on sundays, I expect an equal old skewing, I want to see Madam Secretary but it seems to be it'll be one of the first cancelations of the year, it won't reach a sub 1.0 average because of the NFL overruns, if CBS still keeps TGW for its acclaim, they should conclude the 7-season plan, if it doesn't get enough audience for fall, then it could go to summer. CSI will take a massive drop just like Miami and Mentalist but it'll be CBS' highest rated scripted offer.
On FOX, having Simpsons will help B99, but I expect it to be like Arrested Development in the mid 00s, not showing a good retention despite good reviews, Mulaney has a good chance of being DOA despite its cushy lead-in.
NBC on fridays has a league-average dependable show and an offer that will probably do better than Hannibal and Dracula, but will it be enough to get another season given it isn't a co-production.?
All I want in my life is a short 12 episode season for Revenge so that the show ends up with 100 episodes, so I hope the ratings are enough to assure that.
ReplyDeleteResurrection may collapse, but I see a good chance of holding up to high 1s and still be renewed, but it's a 50/50, because it may as well fall and crash hard.
I am rubbing my magic lamp and hoping Grimm has its best year to date.
ReplyDeleteIf Constantine could retain 90% of Grimm's audience and make it through the season I will be a very happy man.
ReplyDeleteI believe it'll be renewed in the end, just like The Following, Under The Dome, New Girl, Revenge and 2 Broke Girls and other shows that suffered the same.
ReplyDeleteHit series that slumped on season 2 need drops like 50% to be canceled (Smash, Touch), which means they are timeslot hits.
So now we hit Sunday and Friday to wrap this up. I like OUAT and I agree that it all depends on how the arcs are handled. I am possibly the only person on the planet who didn't see Frozen, so I'm neither excited nor unexcited to see it. I'm a little unhappy that they decided to have both Rumple and Regina revert to their previous ways. It feels unimaginative, especially because I felt both had earned their redemption. I bailed on Revenge after season 2 and I'm not likely to go back, no matter how good the finale was. Plus, having Emily's father be alive makes everything she did unnecessary. Maybe others will feel differently. I lost interest in Resurrection last year and am unlikely to go back.
ReplyDeleteI am also one of the few people who has watched The Good Wife and gone Eh?. It's Okay, but not great, IMHO. Madame Secretary doesn't interest me. My interest in procedurals is minimal, so CSI is out.
As I said before I'm not a big comedy fan, so I can't really give an opinion on any of the new ones. I would like Cristela to succeed for the same reason I'm rooting for Blackish, I would really like to have show be more diverse than they are right now.
I am glad to know that I will finally not have to set my DVR for an extra hour to make sure I catch TAR. Grimm got really good last season. It was a huge improvement over amnesia Juliette. Constantine has me intrigued but the changes to the show are worrisome. It usually does not bode well when they are retooling this early. H50 may get a boost from syndication, although early on during its run on TNT it was getting ratings lower than the bazillionth rerun of Supernatural. I stopped paying attention, so it may have improved. All in all Fridays will get a little busier for me with TAR and Constantine. Last year I only watched Grimm and the end of Nikita. Sundays get lighter with TAR gone.
OUAT - will benefit with TAR and the "Frozen" storyline
ReplyDeleteRevenge & Resurrection - I smell bad numbers here.
FOX made a serious error in letting AD go to TBS. B99 will do well between TS & FG.
MS - I want to meet the 18-49 demo that will choose it over SNF, OUAT, Fox comedies and cable offering. Seriously. I'm so looking forward to this flopping hard and fast.
CSI - will not end up at 10 permanently. It will slide to 9 or, if Scorpion flops - I see LA moving to 9 and CSI moving to 10 on Monday. Interestingly, CBS seems very vulnerable on M, Th (except for TBBT) and Sunday. We could see creaks on Tuesday if POI continues to slide and NO doesn't match LA. It's going to be a rough season for CBS.
Grimm will be stable. The addition of Trubel was a shot in the arm during end of S3. I see that continuing.
H50 was a surprise in terms of stability - too bad it did not translate well in syndication for TNT. I was shocked to see a 25-episode order. Very odd for a Friday night show in 5th season.
BB - has the most upside potential in syndication since NCIS. I've never watched BB because it just seems "old." I wonder if that changes (probably only through DVR though).
Like the way the Grimm team has evolved ( without that amnesia story) and hope Constantine is good - curious to see how it will differ from the film.
ReplyDeleteAgain, Fridays and Sundays are lighter days for me but I was a little optimistic in my predictions - maybe because it's Friday and I'l glad this week is over!
ReplyDeleteSo, don't watch any of the following so I gave them a slight decrease: OUAT, Revenge, B99, Blue Bloods, The Good Wife, CSI (gave that up years ago), Last Man Standing, and H5O.
For the new shows, only Constantine and MAYBE Madam Secretary are on my watch list. I think Constantine will premier high but settle right around where Grimm is. Grimm is another of my favorite shows so I am hoping that this pairing works better than Dracula did (I tried to like it because of Katie McGrath but I couldn't even get thru the pilot). Haven't seen a lot of buzz around Mulaney or Cristella so I'm thinking they will be one season and out.
Is everyone's predictions could to be posted before the start of the season?
Thanks for one more round of interest ;)
ReplyDeleteI am definitely right there with you hoping the best for Revenge, you know that. The same with OUAT. So I would love for you to be right and for the Frozen storyline and Revenge's good word of mouth to prop up the entire block but I don't know, it's hard to be very positive about Revenge about the way the ratings have gone the last two seasons.
I agree with you about the promos. I understand their focus on Thursday and I am happy about it because I am a fan of all those 3 shows but I wish they would spread the love a little and help out the Sundays shows as well, they need it as much, if not more. Resurrection is still a very young show, it's practically a new show and because it's the anchor of the night, if it falls too much, Revenge could come down right with it, so there is cause for concern there. Let's hope for the best!
Last one, thanks for having hang around in there.
ReplyDeleteI don't really have much to add in there since I agree with what you said. I don't think it's very fair to call Resurrection a sophmore slump since the show is still so new. It's basically just like continuing the Season 1 trend, IMO, but that's just nitpicking.I also don't think that The Good Wife would fit in CBS summer, it sounds too strange to me and it would feel too much of a downgrade for such a crown jewel like that show is to CBS, I think they will let it be on their Sunday until the end.
I think that Revenge will do good enough for that final season. I could even imagine it timesharing with Resurrection at 10pm while a new thing takes over at 9pm.
ReplyDeleteOne thing for sure is that we are bound to suffer in the ratings this year every Monday. Last year I would suffer but I was certain that Revenge would still be renewed due to the number of episodes, this year no such luck. Let's hope for the best!
I would very much like that since Grimm just had its best season to date IMO, the show is getting better and better and I love how team grimm turned out to be.
ReplyDeleteThanks for stopping by ;)
I think it has decent chances at that considering how much it has gotten for a Friday show. I am a bit worried about what NBC's expectations would be but I also don't think they would go in expecting it to build in from Grimm or something like that. Let's hope so.
ReplyDeleteThanks for having hang around in there.
ReplyDeleteAbout OUAT, they've said at comic-con that they wouldn't have Regina reverting to her old ways even though she obviously wouldn't be happy about Marian returning. I believe they even said that the fact that she wouldn't do so would be the proof that she had grown the past year. I would also be disappointed if this wasn't the case so I hope this sticks.
I also agree about Grimm. It was their best season to date IMO especially towards the end which makes things very promising for season 4. I really like how the team has grown.
I agree 100%. Grimm's team has evolved so well and so organically, it's a joy to watch. I also love the addition of the new grimm, I love her relationship with nick!
ReplyDeleteThanks for having hang around in there and for the continued interest.
ReplyDeleteYou make a good point about Blue Bloods having a good chance of benefiting from syndication. I don't think H50 was doing as bad as people were saying in syndication, it was just a matter of the initial deal being too high, but if you compare it with the original ratings it really wasn't doing that awful IMO. The deal was overvalued but that was it imo.
I also don't see CSI moving to Mondays. Potentially moving up an hour sure, but I doubt it leaves Sundays. Once shows are thrown to Sundays or Fridays I don't see CBS taking them off the night.
Thanks for having hang around in there and for the continued interest.
ReplyDeleteI will probably do a sum post tomorrow or so in which I will try to summarize the predictions, both mine and from the other users, but I won't publish people's individual predictions. I will probably post averages for each shows and standard deviations or something like that so that we can get a sense of what is the general feeling. At the end of the season I will then post results! And by the way we will continue to have these throughout the year as new shows premiere and stuff. I expect to do one more for November sweeps, before State of Affairs and other stuff premieres.
Was pleasantly surprised by the addition of the Young Grimm - would love to see a scene with just her, Monroe, and Bud for fun.
ReplyDeleteI thought CSI was going to be a shorter season and be replaced by CSI Cyber Crimes at mid-season. Is that not happening anymore? I stopped watching CSI Miami after the quality of the show deteriorated and it was moved to Sundays at 10. You can't really DVR the shows on Sunday nights because they're always being delayed by football and they don't adjust for that, so the move to that time-slot may make me drop CSI as well.
ReplyDeleteI really hope that Revenge will gain some viewers or at least keep it stable so they can gain another final season. OUAT should be doing OK. I don't know about Madam Secretary, it could go either way. Resurrection should stay stable or at least above the 2 rating point.
ReplyDeleteI still can't believe ABC let both Once and Revenge at Sundays, especially Revenge which is sufficating on Sunday nights. I hope Frozen, the solid storytelling and a small amount of fillers will boost Once to bit higher rankings.
ReplyDeleteI look forward to Cristela, I liked the trailer.
OUAT: in the beginning will certainly benefit from the Frozen story, season 4-A will be high in demos, mid 2.x, maybe hitting also some low 3.x. But ... let'see what happens with Season 4-B.
ReplyDeleteConstatine is more compatible with Grimm, a huge rating retention is possible.
CBS dramas on sundays always performed with anemic demos, fridays are better.
FOX comedies are going to bomb/drop even further.
Sunday's are very busy for me on cable but only during Summer. During Autumn/Winter it's just OUAT for me. I hope the people that started watching when they heard Frozen was being introduced will stick with the show after that story is finished. I'm really interested to see how much of a boost it gets out of the Frozen buzz. OUAT is one of my top shows so I hope it does well and keeps it up in 4B too.
ReplyDeleteThe only new show i'll be watching on Firday/Sunday is Constantine which I was really excited for after seeing the trailer, but I watched the pilot and I thought it was terrible but definitely had potential for huge improvements. With the changes they are making i'm still going to give a shot.
I stuck with Resurrection last season because it was a short season but I won't be returning to it this season.
B99 got one new viewer in me; came across re-runs of the first season, darn is it funny. 8:30 on Sunday right before the big 9PM cable time viewing is a perfect time.
ReplyDeleteGoing to the Hopper on Friday, H50, Grimm, Constantine and for Sunday, Resurrection & The Walking Dead. As a side note, I did not care for Dracula because I thought Jonathan Rhys Meyers was so bad in the character, the only character I cared for was Renfield played by Nonso Anozie.
ReplyDeleteOUAT premiere will definitely have the "Frozen hype" advantage.Its actually the arc around that SL that needs to be excellent.Because if its not, the ratings will see the same fate as 3-A last ie decline.Although I did enjoy 3A because of Robbie Kay's brilliant portray of Peter Pan.
ReplyDeleteI have lost all hopes for Revenge.This show will never return to its S1 glory. Pity because I used to love watching Emily-Victoria banter.
Cristella is coming about a decade too late. In the early 2000's, the show probably would've done well on ABC. It's essentially 3 of their sitcoms around that time meshed into one. It's only hope is to somehow tap into just enough of that nostalgia to survive in the 1.3 or so range.
ReplyDeleteIm really hoping for the best for revenge and that viewers will at least give it a chance in the premiere. If it premieres at least a 2.1 which I'm hoping and the premiere is really good then I think that it will likely stabilize to at least a. 1.5-1.9!for the rest of the season. If not then it will likely keep dropping until it gets to sub ones.
ReplyDeleteI think the premiere can get some hype like it did last year but they need to post a promo soon...
ReplyDeleteYa I know. If they really want this show to gain some hype then they should do more interviews. And post a couple of promos
ReplyDelete@omabin last year when revenge came back from the 3 week break it got a 1.8 and had a 1.5 before the break and it managed to bounce back without a lead in, meaning that revenge was never lead in dependent. Revenge mostly benefits based of promotion, social media and creativity.
ReplyDeleteCSI apparently has full season that will run straight through with Cyber replacing when that run is done.
ReplyDeleteThis is the thing about abc. It usually promotes the shows that don't need ratings and leaves the shows that really need ratings to fend for themselves. You wonder why a majority of the shows on abc are having rating issues.
ReplyDeleteAgree. I'm sure if they can manage to have some hype on social medias and release a promo like the one they did last year (Who Shot Emily?) then the premiere should do great
ReplyDeleteConsidering that last year it premieres to a 2.3, which was a 0,6 increase from its 1.7 in the finale, we can expect it to premiere to a 2.0, which would be a 0.6 increase over the 1.4 in the finale. So they got a chance for exposure, and I hope those ratings stick, I truly want Revenge to deliver good ratings!
ReplyDeleteIf OUAT delivers low 3s I'll be over the moon. It hasn't done that since January 2013
ReplyDeleteI'm crosing my fingers, even my toes so that Revenge does well!
ReplyDeleteMe too I'm hoping for the best. It depends on whether viewers want to give it a chance. I'm kinda worried too considering revenge no longer has syndication on its side.
ReplyDeleteOUAT got really lucky with Robbie Kay, he was the only reason a lot of people didn't completely drop the show in 3A
ReplyDeleteHad I comment, I would have said exactly what you said (with different words, obviously). I hope ABC starts promoting the Sunday block and that they do a recap for Revenge and Resurrection
ReplyDeleteI'm praying for ABC to swap Revenge and Nashville come mid-season. American Crime will definitly not be a Resurrection kinda hit, and it will probably take Revenge down with it. And anyways, Nashville is already dead in ratings, so you might aswell put a dead show on a death slot. With a little promotion of being back to its original time-slot, I can bet Revenge will do better than Nashville on Weds
ReplyDeleteI don't see Emily's father being alive as it making everything she did unnecessary. She actually didn't even know that he was ordered to kill (by Conrad) when she started avenging him; she did what she did MORE to clear his name, as you can see in her face when she saw on the TV "David Clarke cleared of all charges".
ReplyDeleteStill, lead-ins are always a factor, especially for a show on Sundays at 10. If Revenge was airing on a week day, it would be another story...
ReplyDeleteI hope OUAT is successful, the last season was actually good. True ratings didn't hold in 3a, and I despised incredibly like the first 7 to 8 episodes(not including the wonderful pan) but that arc finished off its last hand of episodes in a stellar way. And wicked was just rly good, and viewed well by majority, as the ratings were pretty good(not including the Easter episode) and the final matched last year.
ReplyDeleteThat and frozen should give a great reasonings for viewers to watch, and boast ratings a lot.
As for revenge. Well I quit like early s2, and when I returned for s3, while no (crap initiative plot) was just soooo boring. Not even bad entertainment, but boring. To me the season only had like a few captivating episodes. I'm not sure the finale(while great), is enough to convince people to return.
Once on Sun ,ANTM on fri in a few weeks
ReplyDeleteMy only hope for Friday and Sunday next year is that both Once and Grimm hold the ratings enough to justify a 5th season renewal. I love both shows and want to see them continuing beyond this coming season.
ReplyDeleteThese are the only two shows I watch during those nights too.
My prediction for Constantine after watching the pilot is that it won't make it for season 2.
I think that the finale alone is enough to get people to return. Cause it had 3 huge cliffhangers and plus that because of this finale this is the most buzz that revenge has ever gotten ever since the season 1 finale.
ReplyDeleteSorry i'm so late on this one. I got tied up yesterday.
ReplyDeleteFriday: I only watch a half dozen shows year around, that broadcast on Fridays. Continuum, Helix, Hannibal, Grimm and now Constantine, and Z-Nation. I use it to catchup on shows, from earlier in the week, that i can't watch at broadcast. I also try out old shows that i missed. Currently i'm watching: The Leftovers, Supernatural (season 3- 1st time watching), and Battlestar Galactica (season 1 reruns).
I watch Hannibal on Saturdays, because i love Continuum that much. It also fits with Helix and Z-Nation. So keeping with Syfy's Friday 10pm schedule, my Friday lineup in the fall: Invasion (starting next Friday- 1st time), Utopia- UK (s1 & s2- 1st time), Grimm, and Z Nation.
As far as how well the shows, on Fridays will do: Hawaii 50 and Blue Bloods, seemed to be popular procedurals, so i believe they will be fine. Constantine seems like a good companion for Grimm, i believe they will both get renewals. But i also believe that CBS owns the so-called death slots. The Amazing Race always does well. The comedies i have no idea, never even heard of them.
I'll come back tomorrow for Sunday's shows.
my guess is ouat will be high ratings in 4A because of frozen fans and for 4 B the produces will have to be creative so much to hold this audience
ReplyDeleteSorry I'm so late with my response here, I had a busy week. Hope you're still reading this.
ReplyDeleteThe Friday and Sunday shows I predict will be canceled are: Cristela, Madam Secretary and Mulaney. These are my predictions:
Once Upon A Time: Premieres to 2.2+, average 2,1
Resurrection: No idea how much it will fall, but I say it premieres to 2.0+ and will settle around 1.8
Revenge: Premieres to 1.5+, average 1.4
Brooklyn Nine-Nine: Premieres to 1.5+. average 1.3
Mulaney: Premieres to 1.3+, average 1.2
Madam Secretary: As much as I liked the pilot I don't think a lot of people will tune in. Premieres to 1.5+, average 1.3
The Good Wife: I think it will do around the same numbers as Madam Secretary. Premiere 1.4+, average 1.3
CSI: The Mentalist did OK there but I doubt the CSI audience is as loyal and passionate as The Mentalist's. Premiere 1.4+, average 1.3
Last Man Standing: Premieres to 1,3+, average 1.3
Cristela: Premieres to 1.2+, average 1.0
Grimm: Premieres to 1.5+, average 1.3
Constantine: Premiers to 1.3+, average 1.2
Hawaii Five-0: I don't expect big changes ratings-wise. Premiere 1.5+, average 1.4
Blue Bloods: Same as H50, not a lot of changes. Premiere 1.5+, average 1.4
Out of all these shows, I will only be watching Madam Secretary (as long as it lasts).