It's been a while since we've done of these. With the Winter Olympics ahead of us and few broadcast shows daring to go with originals for the next could of weeks, I thought it was a good point to check on the status of our shows. I will start by briefly talking about all the midseason entries which I didn't get a chance to talk about back when I did this in December and then I will summarize the main changes in predictions since we've last spoken.
A Look at the Midseason Entries
Because I am doing this all at once and not network by network, I will just leave here the most recent averages for each category so that you can interpret the relative values for each show:
- CBS Comedy: 2.80
- CBS Drama: 1.90
- ABC Drama: 1.80
- ABC Comedy: 1.80
- FOX Drama: 1.80
- NBC Drama: 1.70
- FOX Comedy: 1.30
- NBC Comedy: 1.00
- CW Drama: 0.70
Tier 2:
- Chicago PD
Syndication: No
Production Company: NBC
Ratings Average: 1.70 (100%)
Chicago PD started out very well ratings wise, but I actually do not think the ratings for that episode were particularly telling, as the show was facing unusually weak competition and airing out of an usually high rated SVU. Its performance in subsequent weeks though, together with NBC's general softness in the drama department (there is a reasonable chance it finishes up the season as NBC's number #4 drama and two of the ahead are voice lead-outs), has been much more impressive. NBC's vote of confidence by giving it some additional episodes, which is rare for midseason shows, only shows that they are happy with its performance and that NBC is seriously invested in the Chicago franchise, which was evident last year at the upfronts when they moved Fire to the post Voice slot anyway. I think there is still some chance that PD's ratings collapse after the Olympics while other NBC bubble dramas hold their own, but I think that's an unlikely situation and 100% is a good place for a newbie show to be at. Chicago PD is a likely renewal for NBC! (and, so far, the only midseason success story we've had)
- Suburgatory
Syndication: No
Production Company: Not ABC
Ratings Average: 1.60 (90%)
Suburgatory returned to its original slot with ratings in line with what it was doing here at the end of last season. While I can certainly see the argument that it should be doing better in the slot sandwiched between The Middle and Modern Family, I think things could be far worse too. One thing that is important to note is that the 85% include just the 4 episodes aired, two of which are extremely deflated due to extraordinary circumstances (airing against the premiere of American Idol which saw all of ABC Wednesday hit lows and airing amidst repeats), which skews the whole average downwards. Still, even if we take the 90% as the actual average, I gotta think that's good enough for a third year comedy, even if it's on ABC, aka, the channel that has showed the most bias towards its owned shows, which Suburgatory is not. With ABC hurting so badly everywhere, I gotta think 90% will be good enough, even if it's just for the 8h30 Friday slot after Last Man Standing or for another midseason order to replace a failed comedy. I am saying likely renewal for now, on the hopes of not getting burned by ABC canning it because they don't own it.
Tier 3:
- Community
Syndication: Yes
Production Company: NBC (yes, and others, but NBC is also part of it unlike popular opinion)
Ratings Average: 1.10 (110% of NBC Comedies, 70% of NBC scripted shows)
Community has been pronounced dead multiple times before, yet here it is again fighting for its sixth season. To be honest, I do not think the show ever had such a hard battle as it has this year; certainly not last year in which I thought its renewal was fairly obvious with the 88 episodes threshold so close. This year, things are different. On the one hand, I am pretty sure NBC would rather have the low 1s from Community that at least give it additional syndication revenues (or a lower license fee, however you prefer to think about it), than to have the sub 1s that new comedies can give them (as seen this year). However, performing at 70% of NBC's overall average is still quite bad and if NBC decides to blow up the Thursday comedies and keep Parks as a back up, in theory they shouldn't need a second backup which would mean Community is a goner. It's really a tough nut to crack and it could go either way. My guess is that it will come down to syndication economies and how much an additional episode can bring them. I think the fact that they haven't quite reached the 100 episodes may help them, but again, it's too close to make a call right now - Community is a true bubble show!
- The Following
Syndication: No
Production Company: Not FOX
Ratings Average: 2.00 (110%)
The Following is probably one of the biggest disappointments of the seasons ratings wise, considering that we are talking about last year's regular season highest rated new show and one of the overall highest rated dramas. However, as I've said back in the fall when I analyzed Agents of Shield, I think it's important to separate what are expectations and what is necessary to survive. While The Following is certainly disappointing, what it is doing now is certainly still more than good enough for survival. The show is performing at 110% of FOX's drama average and 125% of FOX's overall scripted average and I would think that there is a decent chance the show ends up the year as FOX's third overall show (behind American Idol and Sleepy Hollow). Remember: relative ratings are all that matter, not the absolute numbers. However, I am still having the show placed on the third tier, destined for bubble shows. Why? Well, because we've only seen the rating for two regularly scheduled episodes and they have yet to face the biggest competition in the slot. If The Following stops falling now or doesn't fall much more, I am certain it will be renewed. Yet, if the show continues do deteriorate when facing the Olympics and, later on, The Voice, then things could look bleak to the show. This is really one of those cases in which I am confident that I will have a prediction by season's end, it's just a matter of me wanting to see more data points (unlike say, Community, in which I doubt more data points will be all that helpful). Until then, I am declaring The Following a bubble show!
Tier 4:
- Enlisted
Syndication: No
Production Company: FOX
Ratings Average: 1.00 (75% of FOX comedy average, 65% of FOX overall scripted average)
Much has been said about how horribly FOX has scheduled Enlisted. I don't have much more to add to that story and I think it's really puzzling that a network that is bleeding so much in so many places decided to sacrifice such a well reviewed show that they produced like this. However, regardless of what could have been, reality is that Enlisted is performing awfully on Fridays, no matter how we spin it. Perhaps the only question is why haven't I moved the show to certain cancellation then? Well, that's just because I think there is a chance, albeit very very small, that FOX tries something else with the show, particularly now with Rake collapsing on Thursdays (an American Idol/Surviving Jack/Enlisted maybe?). However, as said, I think chances of that happening are very small, the show is very much likely to be cancelled!
Tier 5:
- Rake
Syndication: No
Production Company: Not FOX
Ratings Average: 1.20 (65%)
Rake performed very poorly out of the gate, even on a night in which it had basically no serious competition from any network, and things have only gotten worse since then. This is one of those cases in which everything was done right, by the book by FOX. Airing it on a slot with little competition? Check. Lots of promotion? Check. Airing it after a high rated lead-in? Check. Why didn't it work? The audiences simply weren't interested in sampling the show and, from those who did, a big portion didn't even come back. It's unfortunate for FOX, but it does happen. Nothing else to add here, the show is certain to be cancelled and the only question is whether or not it gets to air all 13 episodes.
- Intelligence
Syndication: No
Production Company: CBS
Ratings Average: 1.50 (80%)
Intelligence opened up pretty decently (albeit non spectacularly) in its Tuesday special preview but it quickly hit an awful 1.2 the following week on its regular Monday timeslot. Even though things have improved a bit in the last couple of weeks (probably because Mom has been higher rated and because it competition has eased down, with either Castle or The Blacklist sitting out the night), the results are still pretty dire. There is no way CBS keeps a first year drama that is being beaten by all the Friday and Sunday shows. Therefore, even if the show were to stay at this 80% level, which would be hard to do when the competition comes back in full force, the show would still be certain to be cancelled!
- Killer Women
Syndication: No
Production Company: ABC
Ratings Average: 0.70 (40%)
Apart from the quickly pulled The Assets, no other midseason show has done as horribly as Killer Women, which is performing at a miserable 30% of ABC's drama average. To be fair, the show was thrown to a horrible situation from the beggining (10pm slot, horribly rated and incompatible lead-in, serious competition from both CBS and NBC), but none of that matters when the level is this low. ABC has already reduced the number of episodes it will air, so some claim that the show has already been cancelled. I think it's a matter of semantics but, regardless, the show is certain to be cancelled!
Changes since December
As the season progresses and we get more data points as well as information about the performance of more midseason shows, the situations of most shows get more clear and, as such, I am able to adjust my predictions. These changes include moving shows that were once "To be determined" to Tier 2 (likely renewal) or Tier 4 (likely cancellation), as well as upgrading or downgrading shows from likely to certain (from Tier 4 to Tier 5 and from Tier 2 to Tier 1). Here are some highlights:
- Grey's Anatomy was previously on the Tier 2 out of conservatism since there was a tiny possibility that costs were too large to bring back the show. However, not only have the show's relative ratings improved since then, but most importantly, the shows' main pair has resigned for two more seasons, leaving no doubt about its return. It's certain to be renewed now.
- Castle has kept its ratings well above the network average (its ratings are the same as they were at the beginning of the season while mostly everything else is down) and is likely ABC's best source of syndication income. It's certain to come back.
- Agents of Shield may have disapoiting ratings for some but it's a new show performing at 130% with no lead-in against the highet rated drama on television. It's certain to be renewed and those saying it's a pity renewal are folling themselves!
- Revenge has not only improved its relative ratings, now performing at 90% of ABC's drama average, but has done so airing against the big awards shows on Sundays. While I think it could be wise to wait for some 10pm airings before moving it, the syndication argument on top of some very strong 90% performance are enough for me. It's certain to be renewed!
- The Goldbergs, which I had already called ABC's most successful sitcom back then, has been able to capitalize from the absence of The Voice and showed promise on multiple occasions. I said when I wrote my initial article on it that I would move it to stabilize around the 80%-90% level and that is exactly what the show has done, currently performing at 90% of ABC's comedy average. While I don't think this result is amazing, especially considering the show is a freshman and not ABC produced, I think it's good enough seeing how everything else is crumbling, so I am saying likely renewal for now!
- I've elaborated before on how I thought we were heading for a The Good Wife vs. Blue Bloods situation if Intelligence succeeded. A lot of stuff has happened since then. For starters, Intelligence flopped hard, which were the best news each show should have gotten! Could CBS still cancel one of them? Maybe. But if they cancel The Mentalist and Intelligence, they could already premiere 2 new dramas then, and I also think we're getting to a point in which cancelling the 4th comedy hour may be better for them than to can another drama if they want to premiere a 3rd new drama which is, by itself, a pretty big if! On top of all that, they always have the possibility of holding Undercover Boss to when a show flops (they certainly could have used it this year with the whole Hostages/Intelligence situation), which would also open room for a 3rd new drama. Bottom line: yes, CBS could still cancel another one out of Blue Bloods/The Good Wife, but the likelihood of that happening is small enough that I feel comfortable placing both as likely renewal. On top of that, Blue Bloods has also scored a syndication deal and the show is also quietly having one of its best seasons in terms of year to year comparisons, now performing at 100% of CBS's drama average, both of which have me inclined to even move it to certain renewal. I am leaving both shows on Tier 2 for now though, but in any case, both Blue Bloods and The Good Wife are now likely to be renewed!
- Hawaii Five-0 and it huge syndication deal already had it as likely renewal back in the fall when the show was posting very solid ratings for Friday. With the show now posting excellent Friday ratings (now performing at 105% of CBS's drama average) and with the 100 episodes threshold still to come, I've moved to show to a certain renewal!
- Elementary, already a likely renewal in the fall, has improved its relative ratings a bit ever since Scandal went off the air and, most importantly, has scored an incredible syndication deal that make next season a sure thing. The show is now certain to be renewed.
- The Crazy Ones is now the worst performing CBS comedy. Considering the show is currently airing against no competition, that it has a decently rated lead-in and that its consistently outperformed by its lead-out, I think there are few excuses that we can make here. In a way, the show probably had an uphill battle since the beginning, since how it was always the odd man out, hence having more to prove. I could probably keep the show on the bubble for a little while longer, since it's not totally over for it, but I think the turnaroud it would require at this point is just not likely, so I am saying a likely cancellation.
- The Tomorrow People is performing on Wednesdays at a level that I doubt would give the CW much incentive to bring it back. However, that's not even half of its problem. I suppose it would have a chance if it were to keep doing what it's doing until the end of the season. But the show is moving to Mondays soon and I have very few doubts that it will not be able to keep its numbers there once moved (there is probably no other show as much compatible with it as Arrow). On top of that, I even have doubts about said numbers being enough for a renewal to begin with! The CW is certain to renew one out of Reign, The Tomorrow People, The 100 and Star Crossed, possibly two (but they don't even need to do two) and, for now, I cannot imagine how TTP will be the chosen one. The show is a likely cancellation!
- Parks and Recreation has, as predicted, improved its relative ratings once paired up with Community and moved to 8h30 away from The Big Bang Theory! Performing at 75% of the network's scripted average is not brilliant at all, but considering that means the show is performing at 120% of NBC comedy average, I gotta think it will be enough for, at the very least, a spackle order for spring. The show is a likely renewal now!
- Dracula's relative rating got worse as the season progressed. Even though a lot of people were calling it dead ever since its third week, I advised caution considering how the show was an international co production that would likely have different ratings requirements to be profitable, much like what happened with Hannibal last year. However, I think the absolute ratings got too low for NBC to need to do this, especially considering that a second hour of Dateline would likely do better and be even cheaper. I still thin the 65% can be enough to bring it back due to it being a co production, but I think that as far as a renewal for regular season is concerned, that is now unlikely. For that reason, I am saying the show is now likely to be cancelled!
This leaves our bubble section with exactly 11 shows! Some are shows for which I need to see some more data points (ex. Mom) but I am already leaning towards one way. Others are shows that depend on how spring shows do (ex. Reign). Others are true bubble shows for which making a prediction will be a pain (ex. Two and a Half Men). Regardless, I will be making predictions for all of them at one point, even if I leave them as Tier 3, you will get an indication of which is the direction I expect it to go.
Thanks for reading!
Tracking Table
Previous Articles:
ABC Fantasy Schedule
State of CBS and NBC Comedies
State of ABC and FOX Comedies
State of FOX and NBC Dramas
State of CW Dramas
State of CBS Dramas
State of ABC Dramas
ABC Sundays
Renewals and Cancellations Decisions and TV Numbers 101 [FAQ]
Thanks for stopping by and thanks for the kind words!
ReplyDeleteSuburgatory is one of my absolute favorite comedies, I adore it. I think things look good, albeit not great for another season of the show. As far as I can tell, ABC has not scheduled another night in which it has to perform surrounded by repeats, so that's good.
As for The Following, yes, it always did great ratings wise (hence me saying it was the highest rated regular season new show last year and one of the highest rated dramas last year) but its ratings this year have been unimpressive. They are still good enough for renewal, but I am afraid they'll continue to slide, in which case it would be in trouble!
As for Community, I am with you hoping for that sixth season but really, it could go either way, that will be a horrible call for me to make later in the season!
This has been a good season for me. Most of the shows I like aren't actually bubble shows. Every other year, almost everything I enjoy watching is a bubble show.
ReplyDeleteThanks for stopping by and for the kind words. Well, I sincerely doubt ABC would pick a failed CBS comedy, especially one that isn't pulling ratings that are much higher than its comedy average to begin with. In addition, The Crazy Ones is owned by FOX, so I would imagine that it would land on FOX before landing on ABC, even though, as I've said, I think the chances of any of those things happening are slim. This being said, I do agree with you that the shows would fit tonally. I happen to think The Crazy Ones would be a better fit for FOX, NBC or ABC than it is for CBS (and I do love some CBS comedies, so it's not prejudice)
ReplyDeleteHey there. Thanks for stopping by!
ReplyDeleteI am glad that you are being lucky this season. Unfortunately, I cannot say the same. It will depend on the outcome, but I have quite a lot of shows potentially in trouble. I will be suffering during upfronts, for sure.
Kinda worried about Almost Human, it isn't a smash hit AND it's a genre show, these odds are pretty dim.
ReplyDeleteCommunity sounds like a safe bet I'd say. It's currently in its sixth season and has a core fanbase
It always make me happy to see Revenge as certain renewal; the show has fought its way to survival, even with ABC's horrible schedule and no OUAT Lead in; to score a 1.8 upon return, and a 1.6 against The Golden Globes with a 0.9 lead in is amazing. Plus Paul Lee already said he has nothing but praise for the show. I'm sure it will do awesome at 10PM (even if awesome is 1.8, which is pretty good for 10PM nowadays).
ReplyDeleteI would hold on with The Crazy Ones for a little bit until it returns; its last 1.7 was against The Olympics, and we now its lead out The Millers only gets its rating because of TBBT. If it does a 1.7 again upon return then it is indeed likely to be cancelled, but if it can crawl back to 2s, then I can see 2.5 men axed instead
With The X Factor cancelled its chances are quite better now, but its still a buble show.
ReplyDeleteAgree with you with Community being a safe bet, I think it will be the spackle while Parks get another 22 episode order
Considering TCO's numbers are, like you said, higher than the comedy average, I think ABC would be delighted. Also, it's also a proved show and the benefits of having something as MF spin-off (which should do around high 2's and low 3's), both compatible and single-cam, it should allow the show to do at least low 2's. I imagine some of the core viewing would also come over from CBS' to ABC. It would be better than to flat out try a new comedy. But I agree, the chances are slim, at best.
ReplyDeleteWouldn't be too sure because of X Factor falling away, they could still put in a new drama in that slot. It's all depending on this years pilot season for AH
ReplyDeleteHey there. Thanks for stopping by. I am also worried about Almost Human. That's such an odd one! The current ratings indicate renewal but the way it's been scheduled indicated burnoff. I think there is an issue of timing behind the fact that it didn't get a backorder, but in theory they can still order another season. If the ratings hold up against the olympics and the voice, which I doubt, then I think I will move it to likely renewal, but until then, it stays on the bubble.
ReplyDeleteThey need a stablished show for the 8PM slot for either Wednesday or Thursday; I can see AH going to Wednesday ala Revolution. Starting off a night all new is a big risk
ReplyDeleteThe thing with X-Factor being gone is that Utopia will most likely take up at least one of those hours, potentially two. It really could go either way there.
ReplyDeleteRegarding Community, I am not as optimistic as you guys are. Why do you think NBC will give Parks a 22 episode order? Where would it air? They clearly had to abort the plan of airing it against Big Bang, not to mention that it cannot launch an 8h30 comedy, so I doubt they go back to it being the 8pm Thursday player. But I also do not see them moving the show to another night this late in its life. I think there is a very strong possibility that the show is held as backup the same way Community has been, which in turn could mean that there is no need for Community.
Even so, most of my shows are a shoe-in for renewal, except The Good Wife (that has been been proclaimed dead for years), Reign and a few others.
ReplyDeleteI think Almost Human depends on the following:
ReplyDelete1) Whether its ratings hold up or not against the voice and olympics - if not, FOX will not make the reach decision of renewing a show to which they didn't give a backorder
2) Whether Utopia takes 1 or 2 hours of the fall schedule
3) Whether Glee takes up one hour of the midweek fall schedule or not
do they really need an established drama or just one that creates major buzz ? If so I could TOTALLY see them put in Gotham for that slot
ReplyDeleteGlad to hear that for you! As I've explained in the article, I now think there is a good chance The Good Wife is renewed. There is a possibility that CBS decides to ax it to premiere a third new drama, but I think the odds are slim. As for Reign, I need to see how The 100 and Star Crossed perform (as well as to see how it holds up in the spring) before making that call.
ReplyDeleteI feel confident about Community's return because it's the perfect back up plan, and greenblatt said that a 6th season is likely; I see them shortening its comedy hours even further to one hour and to premiere new shows, but I think Parks will be there in a Mike&Molly way, with its 22 episodes ready to replace the failing comedy, while Community will be there to replace any failing midseason comedy or something like that. I think they will be back so that NBC is not left with only failures as it happened this season with MJFS and SSTW
ReplyDeleteActually Community is in syndication. It got a big deal from Comedy Central, and I believe it airs locally as well.
ReplyDeleteEither way, I'd agree all around; Chicago PD seems like a safe bet, and if given a good lead-in, could last a long time.
Suburgatory I do believe has a chance, but it probably won't be on Wednesdays. I posted on your ABC fantasy schedule that I would put Suburgatory either Mondays or Fridays, and moving The Goldbergs over to Wednesday after The Middle.
Community is squarely on the bubble. I honestly have no idea if it should continue or not; maybe if both Tuesday comedies flop out of the gate, which is possible, Community will get another spackle order to continue this "6 seasons and a movie" thing people want, but if one or both succeed, I don't see Community being of interest to NBC anymore.
The Following I actually do see renewed. Yes it's down, but so what? It's still their second best scripted show in ratings, and while it's far from syndication, it still does well enough.
All the others I see zilch chance.
Yep, and that's why it's a bubble show, otherwise it would be a safe bet. I think Glee will pretty much go to Fridays at 9PM and I'm not sure if Utopia will take 2 hours, we'll have to wait and see
ReplyDeleteHey there, thanks for stopping by!
ReplyDeleteRevenge is one of my absolute favorite shows, so I am up there with you in loving the prospects of the show. And I agree with you, its performance in January was extremely impressive! I hope you are right and that the show does, indeed, awesome at 10pm. I think that, if taken care of well, Revenge doesn't need to end next season.
My prediction for The Crazy Ones is not so much about the 1.7 this Thursday but mostly about the 1.9s it was already getting before, and this is without Grey's Anatomy in the picture yet. I love the show but I think it looks dire, especially because I think that with TNF taking up the first weeks, CBS will try to launch a splashy 9pm hour on Thursday, which may very well be a new drama. In that case, your idea of axing Two and a Half Men instead would be non applicable, since both would be goners. I may change my mind on this if spring ratings are more positive than I expect, but right now I think it's unlikely. I agree with you about The Millers though, that's why I still have it on the bubble, even though I am more inclined to believe CBS will renew it (even if it has SMASH written all over it)
While your plan is certainly possible, I am not ready to call it yet. I think there is too much stuff that could change in NBC next year for them to go that way. For instance, if they blow up comedy on Thursdays (and to TBL+Blacklist+Drama) and put comedy Tuesdays at 9 and Wednesdays at 8, I would argue that there would be no need for Community. The Tuesday comedies are unlikely to fall low enough that NBC needs to replace them since they will have the voice as lead-in (I doubt they let them air on their own after the Go On fiasco) and while the Wednesday comedies could fail, having Parks+Another new comedy as backups would suffice. In addition, I am not even sure that NBC will have 2 hours of comedy on their fall schedule, I think there is a small chance that they go with just Tuesday at 9 (About a Boy's renewal or cancellation will probably determine that). Where do you see them scheduling comedies so that they need the Community backup?
ReplyDeleteBy the way, my pet idea would be to renew both for 13 episodes and air them in between cycles of The Biggest Looser Thursdays at 8.
Yeah I agree ;)
ReplyDeleteI hope Revenge can stay around a little longer than 4 season just for my personal enjoyment, but storywise I think 5-6 season is more than enough, any longer than that would be stretching it too far. I'm foreseing at least 100 episodes for the show, as I can see it as the 10PM performer show ABC has been looking for on Sundays (I'll be rooting for Resurrection too, as any good lead in can help!)
ReplyDeleteI understand your point with The Crazy Ones, it actually makes a lot of sense, but we've already seen the show do a 1.9 before and then get back up to 2.4. While I think it's still a bubble show, I'm leaning towards cancellation too, but I'll take that step once I see how it does upon return; until then I'm staying in the middle ground
Community definitely airs locally. My CW affiliate runs it during the week before prime time shows start.
ReplyDeleteI agree wholeheartedly on Revenge! As for The Crazy Ones, keep in mind that the 2.4 was during beauty pageant night, which is what I call that first nights of January in which there is zero competition so its just shows performing in a vacuum. While cool to boot in press releases and to inch up season averages, the performances of shows in those nights shouldn't be taken any more seriously than their performance against the Olympics should, as both are extraordinary circumstances.
ReplyDeleteIt is to be noted that just because a show is pulling X ratings on network A, doesn't mean it will get the same ratings on network B
ReplyDeleteHey there. Thanks for stopping by.
ReplyDeleteYou are 100% right about Community and I knew that, it was a typo. It's been corrected, I apologize and I thank you for letting me know! I do agree that Community is squarely on the bubble, it's very had to make a call right now!
The Following I am also leaning towards renewal! And I agree with you. As I've written on the text, it doesn't matter that it's down and that it's a let down as long as it's still one of their best performers. However, I am still holding on because I need to know if the show stops bleeding now or not, which, given the increasing competition, could very well not be the case.
I am sorry I haven't answered you in the ABC fantasy schedule, I hadn't seen it yet, I haven't checked it in a while. I will try to give you an answer there asap!
Yes, it was a mistake. I have corrected. Thank you for telling me!
ReplyDeleteI can see your point for Thursdays and Tuesdays, but comedies on Wednesday again? After all the Animal Practice/Whitney/Guys with Kids failure? Law & Order SVU and Chicago PD have done so well that I can see NBC trying a new drama at 8PM or even sticking with Revolution if the show goes back to do 1.5 upon return.
ReplyDeleteTalking about Revolution, its chances are looking a little bit bleak, but luckily I can see NBC sticking with the show and moving it to Fridays 8PM with Grimm and have whole genre night with Revolution/Grimm/New genre drama (or Hannibal) to make a brand on the night.
Considering your idea for Tuesdays comedies, I see NBC holding Parks 22 episodes ala Mike&Molly as I said and holding Community even if it is to reach the 100 episodes milestone (I could even see a 6 episodes renewal ala Nikita). That honestly depends on how the shows perform on Tuesday; About a Boy and Growing Up Fisher will have protected timeslots, sure, but it could still be a "Ready to Love" kind of disaster, or even premiering bland next season. NBC had so many expectations with comedies and so many disasters that I see them having a back up plan; the statemon of Community likely returning meant that for me, that it was going to be their ultimate backup if they were to face utter failure again.
What makes me a little bit optimistic about its prospects of raising is that it returned with no competition to 2.0 on January 2, and then the next week, on the same conditions, it climbed up to 2.4. Upon its return with that 2.0 it seemed like that was the best it could do against repeats, but then it rises. So I still think we can see an uptick. Besides, it also scored a 1.9 in the fall and the rose again to 2s, so I will wait until it come backs before going either way, even if I'm leaning towards cancellation
ReplyDeleteRegarding Wednesday comedies, I am not saying that they should go for it, I am just saying they might. But to be honest, I don't hate the idea that much and I think it's certainly better than to air comedies on Thursday at this point. I think what I would do would be to stick the Maya Rudolph Variety Show there instead, but well, that's besides the point now.
ReplyDeleteI agree about Revolution. I am extremely worried, it's the show I am most concerned about. The success of Chicago PD has seriously damaged its chances and another thing that may hurt it is if Parenthood inches up a bit iwht Hollywood Game Night providing a better lead-in than Michal J.Fox. The Friday plan is an idea but everytime I consider I have a hard time imagining the incentive they could have to go for it, since Dateline would pull the same numbers for like 1/50 of the cost.
You do make a very good argument that even airing on Tuesdays, the comedies could be Ready for Love kinds of fiascos. I don't know what to think here. Predicting Community's fate would be much much easier if we knew NBC's fall schedule in advance. I will make a call at some point, but it will be a hard one to make!
Well maybe. I would like to share your optimism because I do love the show. I just think that it's tricky when a newbie show has its fate contingent on it not only holding, but actually increasing its ratings until the end of the season, especially in an environment in which the competition will get harder. I know that Almost Human just did that, but again, that show is the exception AND it has done so against much easier competition.
ReplyDeleteYes, that is very much true.
ReplyDeleteMan I wish Enlisted had been given a better chance. Oh well. I'm just grateful for whatever episodes we have left.
ReplyDeleteHey there, thanks for stopping by. I share your pain about Enlisted. It's just very sad how FOX has treated it, the show is so good. And they had the perfect show to pair it with in B99, such a wasted opportunity!
ReplyDeleteYeah, it's pretty hard to make these kinds of calls; mostly I'm basing on the thesis that NBC wants to be safe on any kind of upcoming failures as they faced so many, and I'm also theorizing that Greenblatt's comment about Community's chances also mean that, but the show could still be cancelled. I'm crossing my fingers so that it ticks upwards, that could help a lot.
ReplyDeleteTrue, Dateline is cheap, but it can be easily relocated to Sundays midseasons as they have done before, so NBC wouldn't lose it and they give Revolution a chance to find keep its audience on a Friday while giving Grimm an actual lead in and making a brand for the night. I think that's Revolution best chance. Should Chicago PD had flopped (ala OUAT in Wonderland) then I would assume that Revolution would move to 10PM next season, but as it hasn't the chances are falling on either my Friday idea, keeping it where it is or moving it to Thursdays to replace Parenthood; and all of those are big IFs
I really really hope they renew TTP. Even with the first few episodes starting out slow, I can't remember being so invested in any other show. It has so much potential, and I feel like its really hit its stride with the past few episodes. It just needs more promotion.
ReplyDeleteWell that's true, but don't take my comment as really optimistic, because it just take one more rating data for me to say its likely cancellation; I just want to see that number when it returns on February 27th! Then we'll have a clearer picture. For now, one can only hope for the best
ReplyDeleteEven I'm not Team Bash and I miss Frary... Reign needs to get renewed xD
ReplyDeleteWhy you don't say anything about The Mentalist? After all I see on your page for the last few months it is doing better or at least as good as TGW. So is there really a reason you think it will be cancelled or is it just guesswork here? (Sorry for my English)
ReplyDeleteThe bubble shows this season are really hard to call! I think it has never been this nail biting until this season!
ReplyDeleteWhile not making any statement, here's what I think about the chances of some bubble show:
-Almost Human: leaning towards renewal-> Pro: Stable and good ratings for FOX avarage, The X Factor cancellation opens space for it to air on the fall, Rake flop and Glee probably moving to Fridays mean even more options. Con: The schedule, no back order and FOX overall treatment over the show; it mostly indicates they gave up on it, but I think they will consider it giving another shot since it was able to withstand a 3 week break twice (which usually breaks shows, not make them) and with virtually no promotion.
-Community: leaning towards renewal -> Pro: Stable, spackle possibility upon more comedies failures, about to reach the 100 episodes milestone, Greenblatt's commenting it's likely to have a 6th season. Con: Low rated, NBC probably getting rid of comedy Thursdays, About a Boy & Growing Up Fisher getting exposition and protected timeslots. All in all its chances aren't that great, but it's still a good spackle option.
-Nashville: leaning towards cancellation -> Pro: Sophomore show, revenues for songs records, it's not doing that bad for a 10PM show. Con: Ratings are constantly declining, a renewal means taking it for 2 seasons which will probably be low rated,
-Revolution: leaning towards cancellation-> Pro: Ratings around 89% of the drama avarage, it has improved the timeslot year to year, could be used as Grimm lead in next season on Fridays. Con: Too much for success for NBC's dramas, Chicago PD premiering good and delivering good ratings on a weekly basis, it hit a 1.3 twice this season. If Revolution doesn't go back up on its ratings once again, the show could be done for. If it remains on the 1.5 territory, the show could be renewed. Its chances are bleak, but it's not outside the bubble yet
The Good Wife is owned by CBS while The Mentalist is owned by Warner, which means any syndication gains from The Good Wife goes directly to CBS, while gains from The Mentalist goes to Warner, which is why The Good Wife has the upper hand in the renewal race.
ReplyDeleteOk...I am not a pro in that but if it is only about the money I am quiet sure that overall worldwide The Mentalist is more successful and worth more money as TGW or Blue Bloods.
ReplyDeleteLoved reading this!! An amazing article as always. You know, I expect great from you, and you just give me even greater! :)
ReplyDeleteCan you please tell me what you think about Revolution's chances? It's one of my favorite shows ever, and I really, really, really want it renewed :/ I know it doesn't look very good, but I just want you to tell me if there's ANY hope!
I'm probably biased because I'm a Mentalist fanatic, but the ratings have been great since the "Red John" episode... The CEO of CBS also praised the show recently and said Bruno is doing great.
ReplyDeleteI don't like this news on TTP, not at all. I mean i know we all were guessing it and thinking it. But i'm stubborn. So until the network actually cancels it. Then i will believe it still could have a chance, no matter how small that chance is. As for my other shows, they're all safe. Except it kinda bothers me that The Following is in the "To be determined" category.
ReplyDeleteIs there any chance for Chicago PD to be promoted to fall? They're doing so much crossovers with Fire, that would be great to see both shows at the same time on fall. (I'm sorry if this is ridiculous, I'm not from US, so I don't know how this works)
ReplyDeleteGah, if only Almost Human could be renewed, I wouldn't care about any of my other bubble shows being cancelled. Love this show too much.
ReplyDeleteThanks for this! It's good to know the status of all the news shows. I've been desperately tracking Chicago PD ratings! I'm glad to hear it has a good chance :)
ReplyDeleteI still think REVOLUTION has a decent chance for renewal IF Crisis and Believe fails--which I thin they will. It may be up against Parenthood for a final spot OR go to Friday. Being a self-starter on Wednesday and leading a solid night for NBC might lead them to keep it in that spot. OR go to Friday--to make a genre Friday--which is more and more common. And yes with Dateline--that could easily go Sunday midseason.
ReplyDeleteSo Revolution still has a decent shot at renewal--VULTURE went over all the bubble shows and gave REVOLUTION a slightly better than average chance for RENEWAL.
Awesome article. I'm really happy about The Good Wife...
ReplyDelete"I imagine some of the core viewing would also come over from CBS' to ABC".
ReplyDeleteI know, hence this passage.
But CBS doesn't see much of that money, if at all. That's why TGW or Blue Bloods have the upper hand because CBS gets the totality of the revenue generated by those shows. Networks tend to give leniency to shows produced in-house than in joint productions exactly due to that.
ReplyDeleteAlso, since most money for the network, I believe, is generated state-side, the networks don't care that much for the external revenue.
The CBS' CEO wouldn't diss one of her own shows, did she?
ReplyDeleteIn comparison, Paul Lee said that the Trophy Wife could, possibly, come back next year. Looking at the raw numbers, the ship has sailed. The CEO of a network just won't admit out loud.
Sadly, it doesn't matter how succesful a show is internationally, the networks only make gains locally. Besides, the ones making the gains for The Mentalist airing in other countries is Warner (its producing company, not CBS), while the ones making money for The Good Wife is CBS (as CBS produces); The Good Wife makes them way more profit even if The Mentalist rates highers mostly because they own The Good Wife, so all the syndication money is on them. The Mentalist, on the other hand, makes money for its producing company Warner, not CBS, which only airs it in the US. So if both were to battle for renewal, The Good Wife would certainly win that race
ReplyDeleteYeah, I get your thesis on Community and it does make sense considering the kind of disasters NBC has been having. I am certainly crossing my fingers right there with you, I just think it could honestly go either way because even though the NBC Comedies have never performed this poorly, the NBC Dramas are performing the best they've been in a long time, which leaves Community... weirdly positioned in the middle of it all.
ReplyDeleteRegarding Revolution, I think it's not a case of one or the other for Dateline. I am virtually certain that Dateline will air 7pm Sundays as it does every season - they simply air it Sundays and Fridays when midseason comes. What I struggle to justify is why they would give up on its Friday version for Revolution, a show that they don't even own and that, at best ,would equal's Dateline ratings, while being certainly much more expensive. I think it could happen, but I find it unlikely. I think, however, that there is a better chance (albeit still not a big one) that they do Dateline/Grimm/Revolution instead, with Hannibal going to summer or being cancelled.
Hey there. Thanks for stopping by. I think Revolution is a square bubble show, which implies that yes, I do believe it has a decent chance for renewal, but that it also has a decent chance for cancellation. Last season, NBC came to the fall with only 5 returning dramas (Revolution, Chicago Fire, SVU, Grimm, Parenthood) while launching 3 new dramas (Dracula, Ironside, The Blacklist). They can easily do that again next year and return just with 5 new shows while premiering 3 others. Chicago Fire, SVU, Grimm, The Blacklist and Chicago PD already make up for those 5... So they could even cancel both Revolution and Parenthood. Only if they hold The Biggest Looser for midseason, if they cut a comedy hour or if they premiere just 2 new fall dramas will they renew Revolution or Parenthood for a fall slot (I don't exclude the possibility of them getting midseason renewals, especially Parenthood, but it's a bit of a long shot). So while possible... there are too many variables around it for me to make a call just yet. Once thing I am certain though is that it will need to hold up extraordinary well come Spring for it to continue to stand a chance. If its new normal becomes 1.2-1.3 then I really don't see it renewed, and that may very well be the case with DST approaching (and remember, Parenthood shouldn't be nearly as affected being a 10pm show... Revolution is in fact the only NBC 8pm drama, so it will likely be the most affected)
ReplyDeleteHey--yes I agree, I also do think there is a decent chance for REVOLUTION to be BOTH renewed and cancelled.
ReplyDeleteI can see it going either way easily. I wouldn't be shocked if they keep 6 shows instead of 5 but that would depend on how their pilots do. Or as you say what they do with the other factors in their line-up. It's tricky with Revolution v. Parenthood--one thing that they MAY look at is Revolution has a tougher time slot and also direct same audience competition with the ARROW. Anyway that would be a tough call. With regards to how the shows hold in Spring--yes that can be important for both Revolution and Parenthood. I'd say the bare minimum Revolution could survive with is a 1.3(which I think it could probably get). And that depends on other factors too of course. And I really see a decent shot at Fridays with Grimm.
Hey there. Thanks for stopping by. I love The Tomorrow People. I was a bit meh during the fall season and I actively disliked the episodes in which they focused on the horrible love triangle, but I agree with you that the show has really hit its stride now. However, it's unfortunate that most of the audience has already fled. I think nowadays when shows take a little bit to hit its stride that could easily be their undoing because the audience doesn't want to give it another shot. It sucks, but it is what it is.
ReplyDeleteHey there. Thanks for stopping by. In regards to Reign, I am waiting to see how the CW's other midseason performers will do before I make a call - it's really a case of not having all the information yet!
ReplyDeleteThis year, they had 4.5 hours of new programming during fall. The year before, they had 4 hours of new programming. I suppose they could hold Parks, premiere 4 new comedies and 2 new dramas and still make for the usual 4 hours of new programming, but I think it is doubtful that NBC will go that strong in the comedy front and premiering just 3.5 hours seems odd to me for a network that still has so many slots to improve. I am reasonably confident that State of Affairs and Emerald City will be on the fall schedule somehow. Will that be it? Maybe, but that's a biig maybe. To be honest, I think it's more likely that they hold The Biggest Looser, since they will probably need it to bridge the voice cycles again (this year they had the olympics), which would open up a new space. However, holding The Biggest Looser might be problematic because I honestly do not see what else can NBC use for the Thursday 8pm hour (they certainly aren't putting The Voice, The Blacklist or a Chicago show in there, and everything else would be murdered on that slot the same way the comedies currently are).
ReplyDeleteAnd even if we accept that NBC will bring back 6 shows (which already a very tough call), we would need to accept that Revolution has the edge over Parenthood, which I am still not ready to say. I 100% disagree about Revolution's timeslot being harder than Parenthood (and Revolution is one of my favorite shows and I don't watch Revolution). Some facts:
- Revolution has a local programming lead-in that is certainly doing better than the 0.9s that Parenthood has been getting from Michael J. Fox
- Revolution airs at 8pm, when viewing levels are typically higher than 10pm
- Because it is airing at 10pm, it is expected that Same Day viewing is higher (since there are two extra hours to do it), hence ratings are expected to be higher
- Parenthood has been going head to head with the biggest broadcast drama, which is also likely to skew very female as it does, Scandal. Yes, Revolution goes up against Arrow but Arrow pulls a 1.0 and Scandal pulls a 3.0
If NBC were to make its decision based on the timeslot, which networks almost never do, Revolution would flat out loose that battle in my opinion (honorable exceptions would be for nights such as when it had to face the monster Idol premiere head to head, but those are the exceptions, not the rule)
You are right about Scandal(though still not an almost exact duplication of a show like Arrow is) though the rest of the shows there don't seem that impressive whereas Revolution has a number of tough competitors. But I grant you what I said is debatable and probably isn't the big factor anyway. With regards to 8 pm, it is a big switchover to Networks and they do depend on 8 PMers to be more of self-starters than other shows.
ReplyDeleteI do get the feeling with whether the comedies, Biggest Loser or less pilots that there will be a slot for either Revolution or Parenthood--though obviously just a guess at this point. I do admit it's close and could go either way between the 2 shows. And if the do push Dateline off to midseason thee could be a spot open on Fridays which would be a natural spot for Revolution on genre Fridays.
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ReplyDelete200 Sedan only from working part time off a home pc... find out this here Jump999.ℂom
Hey there. Thanks for stopping by and taking the time to read. I had actually included a comment about the mentalist in the original version because it's astonishing how much its ratings have improved since I've last written this, but I then decided to stick with shows for which I had effectively changed my prognosis since the article was already pretty long anyway.
ReplyDeleteIndeed, I am still predicting The Mentalist to be likely cancelled, even though I am less confident in it now than I was back then (its ratings have improved from 70% to 90%, which is A LOT). Three points:
- I am not sold on the idea that CBS doesn't cancel one veteran drama, as that would be quite unprecedent. I suppose they could cancel Intelligence+hold Undercover Boss (moving a veteran like CSI to Fridays)+cancelling a comedy hour and still premiere their usually three new dramas, but I think they would have to go out of their way to do so and I am not convinced they will go for that.
- As Pablo Troncoso explained, if they do cancel one, I still think it will be The Mentalist, since it's not owned by CBS and since it's the oldest show up for cancellation. Because CBS doesn't own it, they won't receive syndication revenue from it. Yes, WB can lower the licensee fee enough to make it profitable for CBS to still renew it if syndication revenues are good enough but I find that hard to happen, because CBS has two alternatives that are likely more profitable: 1)A HUGE syndication deal from The Good Wife from which it collects the profits directly. 2)A recently signed deal for Blue Bloods which is virtually certain to be enhanced with the show reaching 100 episodes. That leaves The Mentalist as a likely still profitable, but less profitable option for CBS.
- As I've said, I think they would have to go out of their way to renew The Mentalist, which would require it to have absolute "non-cancellation" ratings. While the recent ratings trend has been very very positive in those regards and one I did not see coming, there are two caveats there: A) The Good Wife, which is probably the next one that could be axed has also upticked. Even though still lower rated, it's just a 0.2 difference and shows usually don't get renewed over the others based on such small differences. B)I am not entirely convinced of this new ratings' strength, especially because most of them came at especial occasions (Airing after TAR, airing on a night in which football inflated the entire CBS lineup). It is not clear to me that the show will hold up as well come Spring, especially because the slot will have some additional drama competition (Revenge, Crisis) that could affect it somehow.
Beauty and the Beast show is incredible for many reasons - great plot, great actors, but most of all it's about a devoted, true love and this is precious! Please give this show the chance to develop its full potential with many seasons in the future! #BATB <3
ReplyDeleteThank you for this analysis, very interesting !
ReplyDeleteIts painful to see my two favorite shows, Almost human and reign not in the to be renewed category. I hope they get renewed, fingers crossed.
ReplyDeleteVery surprised by TM
ReplyDeleteI think it has good chance. GW is higher on the cancellation chart... granted both are guesses but it's not even in the bubble above. ?
I think CBS would prefer to keep GW over TM but .02 uptick was direct result of NFL. TM will beat GW's easily.
Well, I will do a post later on the season with the direction in which I am leaning for each bubble show. By that time, hopefully I also manage to have less shows on the bubble. I don't majorly disagree with any of your arguments. The prognosis is then just a matter of which arguments you weight more. I think for most of them there are factors that are conditioning their renewal:
ReplyDelete- Almost Human: I think the most important factor are its ratings in weeks to come (including last night). If it continues to do around 2.0 as it has been doing, it has a good chance. If it goes back to the 1.6 level, which given the olympics competition is quite possible, it will be dead most likely. I would remind people that yes, ratings have been going back up in January in a way most of us didn't see coming but January is also by far the easiest month for the monday shows because there is no voice in the picture. There is no guarantee that it will continue to hold once the normal landscape returns.
- Community: I think the most important factor are the conditions of those syndication deal (i.e. whether or not it's worth it to add more episodes to the package) as well as the number of comedy hours NBC goes with next season. If they go with just 2 hours as some people are speculating, I think Parks will be more than enough as backup. The ratings it will get from now until season's end are likely to be mostly irrelevant unless it really deviates from the norm.
- Nashville: Honestly I think it comes down to development and how good ABC feels about its pilots. They could premiere 6 hours of new programming again easily, but they can just premiere 5 as well. Ratings will likely continue to matter a bit for this one though.
- Revolution: Spring ratings will determine its fate IMO. However, even if it doesn't fall in the Spring which would be almost a miracle, the number of returning dramas NBC wants to bring and the ratings for Parenthood are just as much important factors.
Hey there. Thank you, as always, for taking the time to stop by and for the extremely kind words, I am glad you are enjoying it. Regarding Revolution, it's really complicated. It also happens to be the show I am most nervous about because the show has also turned into one of my favorites this year so I would hate to see it go. It's really tough to say because it depends on too many variables. Particularly:
ReplyDeletea) its spring ratings: the show is the only 8pm NBC drama which means it will be the one most affected, most likely, by DST. This means that its relative ratings can seriously suffer. If, on top of that, Parenthood holds up better (better lead-in and 10pm not being as affected) and Crisis and Believe and mildly successful (not even good enough for renewal, but good enough to equal Revolution's numbers), it would be very hard for it to be back.
b) Even if its ratings hold, its renewal would be contingent on NBC bringing back 6 dramas to the fall. Last year, they brought back Chicago Fire, SVU, Revolution, Parenthood and Grimm. This year they will already bring back Chicago Fire, SVU, Grimm, The Blacklist and Chicago PD (most likely). This leaves Parenthood and Revolution as the odd mans out. For one more of them to be renewed, one of the following three things would have to happen: 1) NBC premieres just 2 new dramas in the fall, which I find possible, but not necessarily likely (they did do it last year though when they just premiered Revolution and Chicago Fire though). 2) NBC holds The TBL to midseason to bridge the voice hiatus since there are no olympics to do so, which again, is quite possible, but may be problematic since TBL is practically the only thing that NBC can probably air Thursdays at 8 right now and 3) NBC reduces their comedy hours to 1, which, as much as we all speculate that they should do, I am still not convinced they will do. So while it's certainly possible that one of these three things happen, it is also very much possible that none of them happen! (Note: There is also an outside chance that they do renew Parenthood or Revolution and hold them for midseason, yes, but I think that's even less likely, except maybe for Parenthood)
c) Even if its ratings hold and even if NBC decides to go with 6 fall dramas, it needs to win the battle against Parenthood and right now I say they are squarely tied. Revolution has a very slight ratings advantage, but I doubt that makes such a meaningful difference. Parenthood is older and thus likely more expensive, but it is also owned by NBC, so it could get additional money from syndication. So it's really a tough call to make here as well.
So you see, while a) will be answered within the next months, the other points are very complicated because they are contingent on so many other factors. In answering your question, yes ,Revolution does have a chance, but a lot of things have to go very well for it to be back. And right now, I am not ready to bet on that just yet.
Hey there. Thanks for stopping by and taking the time to read. Regarding The Mentalist, I have already answered someone below, so, if you don't mind, I will just reuse my comment:
ReplyDeleteIndeed, I am still predicting The Mentalist to be likely cancelled, even though I am less confident in it now than I was back then (its ratings have improved from 70% to 90%, which is A LOT). Three points:
-I am not sold on the idea that CBS doesn't cancel one veteran drama, as that would be quite unprecedent. I suppose they could cancel Intelligence+hold Undercover Boss (moving a veteran like CSI to Fridays)+cancelling a comedy hour and still premiere their usually three new dramas, but I think they would have to go out of their way to do so and I am not convinced they will go for that.
- If they do cancel one, I still think it will be The Mentalist, since it's not owned by CBS and since it's the oldest show up for cancellation. Because CBS doesn't own it, they won't receive syndication revenue from it. Yes, WB can lower the licensee fee enough to make it profitable for CBS to still renew it if syndication revenues are good enough but I find that hard to happen, because CBS has two alternatives that are likely more profitable: 1)A HUGE syndication deal from The Good Wife from which it collects the profits directly. 2)A recently signed deal for Blue Bloods which is virtually certain to be enhanced with the show reaching 100 episodes. That leaves The Mentalist as a likely still profitable, but less profitable option for CBS.
- As I've said, I think they would have to go out of their way to renew The Mentalist, which would require it to have absolute "non-cancellation" ratings. While the recent ratings trend has been very very positive in those regards and one I did not see coming, there are two caveats there: A) The Good Wife, which is probably the next one that could be axed has also upticked. Even though still lower rated, it's just a 0.2 difference and shows usually don't get renewed over the others based on such small differences. B)I am not entirely convinced of this new ratings' strength, especially because most of them came at
especial occasions (Airing after TAR, airing on a night in which football inflated the entire CBS lineup). It is not clear to me that the show will hold up as well come Spring, especially because the slot will have some additional drama competition (Revenge, Crisis) that could affect it somehow.
Indeed, that is also true, it's very rare to see them diss their shows while they are still on the air. I think Greenbalt's comment regarding the michael j.fox show before pulling it was the closest thing I remember in the last few years.
ReplyDeleteHey Shannon! Thanks for stooping by and taking the time to comment.
ReplyDeleteI definitely share your pain about The Tomorrow People, especially when the show just keeps getting better and better every week. I really think that what doomed it was those initial episodes in which they created one of the most forced triangles ever just because and were just doing breakout of the week storyline. The show is awesome now, but it's too bad so many people have fled already. It will definitely suck a lot when it gets cancelled.
Regardless, I think you should definitely hold on some hope. For sure, until the network actually cancels it, the show still has a chance, no matter how small, you are 100% right about that.
As for The Following, which is another show I love (let haters hate...), I would also like to wish for its renewal, but I need to see some more numbers with the actual normal Monday competitive landscape. As I've noted for Almost Human, while the recent numbers certainly spell renewal, this has been by far the easiest month to air shows on Mondays since The Voice is gone. How it holds up once it comes back and how much long term damage do the Olympics inflict it will be the key factors to decide whether or not it gets renewed IMO.
Hey there! Thank you for stopping by and for taking the time to comment!
ReplyDeleteRegarding your question, I will be shocked if Chicago PD is renewed and is not on NBC's fall schedule next year. They clearly want it as an all year-program much like Chicago Fire and SVU. I am not even sure why it premiered at midseason this year to begin with, but I doubt that will happen again next year, there is no reason to do that.
Hey there! Thanks for stopping by, glad to you see you around!
ReplyDeleteI am right there with you wishing for Almost Human's renewal. I don't know what happened there but FOX went from overpromoting the show everywhere all the time and giving it the post football lead-in to treating the show like a burn-off. My guess is that the show is a Terra Nova in the making, as in, a very expensive show that caused expectations to be very high. But I find that strange because the cast isn't particularly large and yes, while there are plenty of special effects, other shows have more and have survived just fine. But that's all I get, I don't have other ideas. In addition, there is also the annoying issue of messing with the episode order, which was one of their worst ideas ever.
Hey there. Thanks for stopping by and thank you for the kind words, I am glad you enjoyed the article.
ReplyDeleteRegarding Chicago PD, I really think it is looking good for renewal. Sure, because it is a new show, it can always fall back in the ratings which would require me to change the prediction, but so far I think it is looking quite good indeed ;)
We'll see--either at 8 or 10 would work. It all depends if they have faith that it would do better than an alternative. With cost, I do not think Revolution is that expensive.
ReplyDeleteOh I also agree that Revolution is not more expensive than the average show. However, that's still makes it more costly than the ridiculously cheap co-productions (Hannibal, Dracula, Crossbones), which could be who it would contend with for that 10pm Friday slot.
ReplyDeleteHey there. Thank you so much for stopping by and for the kind words, I am glad you enjoyed the article.
ReplyDeleteYes, I am also quite happy that The Good Wife's prognosis has improved since the beginning of the season (even if it somewhat bittersweet because I really wanted Intelligence to stick around as well)
Hey there. Thank you for stopping by.
ReplyDeleteWell, I have no comments to make about the quality of the show at this moment, but as far as its ratings are concerned, the show is likely to be cancelled (some even say certain, even though I am sticking with likely). You can read more about my prognosis here: www.spoilertv.com/2013/11/rating-analysis-state-of-cw-dramas.html
Thank you so much for stopping by and for the kind words, really appreciate it! I am glad you have enjoyed the article!
ReplyDeleteHey there. Thank you for stopping by and taking the time to comment. It's always awful to see shows we like on the bubble or, worst, likely to be cancelled. I do not watch Reign, so comments there, but I am also strongly rooting for Almost Human. However, last night's ratings are really uninspiring I am afraid :S
ReplyDeleteHey there. Thanks for stopping by! I do concede that The Good Wife is probably my boldest prediction so far and I can certainly understand the argument that it should be on the bubble. There are scenarios that I can come up with that end up with The Good Wife getting cancelled and The Mentalist renewed, with both getting renewed and with both getting cancelled. All of them are possible. I just think that the odds of those scenarios happening are considerably lower than the odds of The Good Wife being renewed and The Mentalist being cancelled.
ReplyDeleteBy the way, I've explained below why I still think The Mentalist will end up cancelled in a comment below. I will copy paste you my answer if you do not mind:
Indeed, I am still predicting The Mentalist to be likely cancelled, even though I am less confident in it now than I was back then (its ratings have improved from 70% to 90%, which is A LOT). Three points:
-I am not sold on the idea that CBS doesn't cancel one veteran drama, as that would be quite unprecedent. I suppose they could cancel Intelligence+hold Undercover Boss (moving a veteran like CSI to Fridays)+cancelling a comedy hour and still premiere their usually three new dramas, but I think they would have to go out of their way to do so and I am not convinced they will go for that.
- If they do cancel one, I still think it will be The Mentalist, since it's not owned by CBS and since it's the oldest show up for cancellation. Because CBS doesn't own it, they won't receive syndication revenue from it. Yes, WB can lower the licensee fee enough to make it profitable for CBS to still renew it if syndication revenues are good enough but I find that hard to happen, because CBS has two alternatives that are likely more profitable: 1)A HUGE syndication deal from The Good Wife from which it collects the profits directly. 2)A recently signed deal for Blue Bloods which is virtually certain to be enhanced with the show reaching 100 episodes. That leaves The Mentalist as a likely still profitable, but less profitable option for CBS.
- As I've said, I think they would have to go out of their way to renew The Mentalist, which would require it to have absolute "non-cancellation" ratings. While the recent ratings trend has been very very positive in those regards and one I did not see coming, there are two caveats there: A) The Good Wife, which is probably the next one that could be axed has also upticked. Even though still lower rated, it's just a 0.2 difference and shows usually don't get renewed over the others based on such small differences. B)I am not entirely convinced of this new ratings' strength, especially because most of them came at
especial occasions (Airing after TAR, airing on a night in which football inflated the entire CBS lineup). It is not clear to me that the show will hold up as well come Spring, especially because the slot will have some additional drama competition (Revenge, Crisis) that could affect it somehow.
So Intelligence doesn't have a single chance to get renewed? :(
ReplyDeleteYeah, it will all depend if they have faith in it doing better than alternative with regards to Fridays and on another day--depends on pilots, comedies and Parenthood. Lot of uncertainty either way yet.
ReplyDeleteThank you for your answer...I am still trying to understand all of this. It is really hard for me living in Europe...I understand this CBS and WB problem but beside this I still think TM has good chances if ratings will stay up after this awfull long hiatus...we will have to wait and see I think...
ReplyDeleteAnd still there has to be something better as TM or TGW so maybe both can stay :)
Long sigh...I'm sad. = ( ...I love The Following, screw the haters you're right about that. And b/c of this last episode, I think it's going to pick up now. TTP...I think you're right. I mean I liked the show from the start, the pilot really pulled me in. I didn't care for the triangle, but seriously people should've been used to that. It's not the first time it's happened in shows that early on. The O.C., Dawson's Creek, Roswell, TVD....and they all turned out ok. I don't see why this one has to have Sooo much hate. It just doesn't make any sense to me. And it's a real shame.
ReplyDeleteWOW, thank you for taking the time to make such a detailed answer that really explains a lot to me. Thanks a lot! :)
ReplyDeleteI guess now we just gotta wait to see what happens in the following months, keep our fingers crossed and hope for the best. It definitely deserves a third season, so I hope NBC and viewers see that :) Looking forward to your next article!
''Agents of Shield may have disapoiting ratings for some but it's a new show performing at 130% with no lead-in against the highet rated drama on television. It's certain to be renewed and those saying it's a pity renewal are folling themselves!''
ReplyDeleteThank you! It's annoying to see people say this show will be cancelled with a rating over 2! Ok, so it's not the super-amazing-off-the-charts ratings we were expecting, so what? It's still pretty high!