This table shows the early overnight ratings. These ratings are normally adjusted later in the day when all the ratings have been consolidated to take into account any local preemptions and/or overruns. You can find all the final adjusted numbers in our Ratings Database. (See the About section below for details about ratings)
The analysis below is based on the early household numbers and are NOT the same as the numbers that will be posted in the above table later. (See the About section below)
For more information on the Nielsen Ratings see this Wikipedia Entry.
NOTE: The opinions expressed here are NOT those of SpoilerTV but of the Author of this Article, Marc Berman.
Sunday 1/05/14 Metered Markets
Football Overrun Leads Fox to Victory
Household
Rating/Share
Fox 13.0/19
CBS 5.7/ 8
NBC 4.0/ 6
ABC 3.7/ 6
-Percent Change from Year-Ago Evening – Sunday 1/06/13:
Fox: +26, ABC: + 3, NBC: -13, CBS: -15
—–
-Winners:
“The Simpsons” (Fox)
-Honorable Mention:
“The Good Wife” (CBS), “The Mentalist” (CBS)
-Losers (excluding repeats):
“The Bachelor”: Countdown to Juan Pablo” (ABC), “Revenge” (ABC), “Betrayal” (ABC)
—–
-Ratings Breakdown:
The final portion of the NFC Wild Card Game (San Francisco 49ers at Green Bay Packers), plus the half-hour post game, lifted Fox to an easy overnight Sunday victory with growth of 26 percent in households from the comparable year-ago evening (which also featured an NFL Football overrun). The NFL Wildcard Game scored a mammoth 30.8 rating/46 share in the 7 p.m. half-hour, followed by the post-game at a 22.3/32 at 7:30 p.m. Next was animated “The Simpsons” at 8 p.m. (#1: 8.4/12), which likely featured part of the post-game, followed by “Bob’s Burgers” (#2: 4.3/ 6), “Family Guy” (#3: 4.2/ 6) and “American Dad” (#4: 3.6/ 5) from 8:30-10 p.m.
Due to the football overrun, all overnight program results for Fox are approximate.
Second overall in the Sunday overnights was CBS with its combination of granddaddy “60 Minutes” (#2: 5.7/ 8), an 8 p.m. repeat of “Elementary” (#3: 4.4/ 6), critically acclaimed “The Good Wife” (#1: 6.3/ 9) and compatible “The Mentalist” (#1: 6.4/10). But third-place NBC will narrow the gap among adults 18-49 with its line-up of two-hours of “Dateline” (4.1/ 6 from 7-9 p.m.) and two-hour special “Best of Late Night With Jimmy Fallon Primetime Special,” which averaged a 4.0/ 6 from 9-11 p.m. (finishing third in the 9 p.m. hour, tying the animated Fox comedies; and second from 10-11 p.m.). Jimmy Fallon will make his debut as new host of NBC’s “The Tonight Show” on Monday, Feb. 17 (following Jay Leno’s second retirement as host on Feb. 6).
Fourth for the evening was ABC with its combination of “America’s Funniest Home Videos” (#4: 4.0/ 6), 8 p.m. special “The Bachelor”: Countdown to Juan Pablo” (#4: 4.2/ 6), diluted drama “Revenge” (#2: 4.5/ 7) and soon-to-conclude “Betrayal” (#3: 2.3/ 4). As a reminder, “Revenge” will shift to 10 p.m. on March 9 out of upcoming drama “Resurrection” (and in place of “Betrayal”), which tells the tale of a group of people of Arcadia, Missouri whose lives are forever changed when their deceased loved ones return.
Football Overrun Leads Fox to Victory
Household
Rating/Share
Fox 13.0/19
CBS 5.7/ 8
NBC 4.0/ 6
ABC 3.7/ 6
-Percent Change from Year-Ago Evening – Sunday 1/06/13:
Fox: +26, ABC: + 3, NBC: -13, CBS: -15
—–
-Winners:
“The Simpsons” (Fox)
-Honorable Mention:
“The Good Wife” (CBS), “The Mentalist” (CBS)
-Losers (excluding repeats):
“The Bachelor”: Countdown to Juan Pablo” (ABC), “Revenge” (ABC), “Betrayal” (ABC)
—–
-Ratings Breakdown:
The final portion of the NFC Wild Card Game (San Francisco 49ers at Green Bay Packers), plus the half-hour post game, lifted Fox to an easy overnight Sunday victory with growth of 26 percent in households from the comparable year-ago evening (which also featured an NFL Football overrun). The NFL Wildcard Game scored a mammoth 30.8 rating/46 share in the 7 p.m. half-hour, followed by the post-game at a 22.3/32 at 7:30 p.m. Next was animated “The Simpsons” at 8 p.m. (#1: 8.4/12), which likely featured part of the post-game, followed by “Bob’s Burgers” (#2: 4.3/ 6), “Family Guy” (#3: 4.2/ 6) and “American Dad” (#4: 3.6/ 5) from 8:30-10 p.m.
Due to the football overrun, all overnight program results for Fox are approximate.
Second overall in the Sunday overnights was CBS with its combination of granddaddy “60 Minutes” (#2: 5.7/ 8), an 8 p.m. repeat of “Elementary” (#3: 4.4/ 6), critically acclaimed “The Good Wife” (#1: 6.3/ 9) and compatible “The Mentalist” (#1: 6.4/10). But third-place NBC will narrow the gap among adults 18-49 with its line-up of two-hours of “Dateline” (4.1/ 6 from 7-9 p.m.) and two-hour special “Best of Late Night With Jimmy Fallon Primetime Special,” which averaged a 4.0/ 6 from 9-11 p.m. (finishing third in the 9 p.m. hour, tying the animated Fox comedies; and second from 10-11 p.m.). Jimmy Fallon will make his debut as new host of NBC’s “The Tonight Show” on Monday, Feb. 17 (following Jay Leno’s second retirement as host on Feb. 6).
Fourth for the evening was ABC with its combination of “America’s Funniest Home Videos” (#4: 4.0/ 6), 8 p.m. special “The Bachelor”: Countdown to Juan Pablo” (#4: 4.2/ 6), diluted drama “Revenge” (#2: 4.5/ 7) and soon-to-conclude “Betrayal” (#3: 2.3/ 4). As a reminder, “Revenge” will shift to 10 p.m. on March 9 out of upcoming drama “Resurrection” (and in place of “Betrayal”), which tells the tale of a group of people of Arcadia, Missouri whose lives are forever changed when their deceased loved ones return.
Source:
Each day (except Sunday) during the main TV Season we post the TV Ratings for the previous nights primetime shows for the major broadcast networks (ABC, CBS, CW, FOX, NBC). Cable Network ratings will be added to the Ratings Database.
The first item that gets posted (normally around 2pm GMT) is the early overnight analysis based on the early household numbers (these are not the same as the Total Viewers and 18-49 Demo numbers that are posted later).
Next, if available, we will post the Top 25 Market 18-49 Ratings to give you a rough idea of the ratings to following.
Later on (normally between 4pm-5pm GMT) we post the official early overnight Total Viewers and 18-49 Demo numbers in the table above.
Finally, later in the evening (10pm-11pm GMT) or the following day, the final adjusted ratings numbers are released, these are then posted in the Ratings Database. The Final Adjusted numbers are what we use for all our Renew/Cancellation Tables, Full Season Tables, Ratings Scorecards etc (see below). Friday's Final Adjusted Ratings are normally available on the following Monday.
If you’re interested in Ratings/Renewals/Cancellations then we have a number of resources here at SpoilerTV that we recommend you check out.
Revenge :(
ReplyDeleteLast revenge eps got 4.2/7 this a 4.5/7 so I wouldn't worry to much
ReplyDeleteSad for Revenge but I'll wait for the numbers before I judge. Hope it does decent since the Golden Globes are next week. But this is a good move though on ABC, since they need to establish Revenge alone and away from OUAT. With it moving to the 10pm slot on March it needs to stablize since we don't know what kind of numbers Resurrection will have
ReplyDeleteOuch for Revenge.
ReplyDeleteWhile true, the lead in change can easily lead to an older skewing audience with no upwards change in the demo. I hope you are right though
ReplyDeleteWhy is Revenge listed as losers? It got a 4.5 up from its last original; while this doesn't necessarily means it will do good in the demos, right now all that can be said is that it's up from three weeks ago.
ReplyDeletePoor Revenge. Especially since that was an amazing episode! -_-
ReplyDeleteI hope Revenge is at least steady, I don't want it to decline any further.
ReplyDeleteI certainly wouldn't worry about Revenge until the demographic numbers are in. I would also keep in mind that once Berman decides a show is a "loser" he tends to repeat that regardless of what the ratings actually are. Revenge may well have poor ratings, but Berman likes to make sweeping pronouncements.
ReplyDeletehe shouldn't be so hasty to decide its a loser, especially considering it's actually up from it's last original, which he didn't list as loser. Berman logic at its finest here
ReplyDeleteRevenge will be renewed..even if The Olympics, the GG and the Grammy's will crush it..
ReplyDeleteRevenge is not airing against the olympics
ReplyDeleteI dont get how airing 3 random episodes in the middle of the hiatus sans its usual lead in and against horrible competitipn (gg next weel) can help with the move later on...
ReplyDeleteHere are the 1/2 hr breakdowns
ReplyDelete7:00 p.m.
ABC – America’s Funniest Home Videos
Viewers: 6.51 million (#2), A18-49: 1.5/ 4 (#2)
CBS – 60 Minutes
Viewers: 6.07 million (#3), A18-49: 1.0/ 3 (#3)
NBC – Dateline
Viewers: 4.81 million (#4), A18-49: 0.9/ 2 (#4)
Fox – NFL Football
Viewers: 41.51 million (#1), A18-49: 13.3/34 (#1)
———-
7:30 p.m.
ABC – America’s Funniest Home Videos
Viewers: 7.08 million (#3), A18-49: 1.6/ 4 (#2)
CBS – 60 Minutes
Viewers: 8.71 million (#2), A18-49: 1.5/ 4 (#3)
NBC – Dateline
Viewers: 4.50 million (#4), A18-49: 1.0/ 3 (#4)
Fox – NFL Football
Viewers: 35.84 million (#1), A18-49: 12.1/29 (#1)
———-
8:00 p.m.
ABC – The Bachelor: Countdown to Juan Pablo
Viewers: 6.39 million (#4), A18-49: 1.8/ 4 (#2)
CBS – Elementary (R)
Viewers: 7.27 million (#2), A18-49: 1.1/ 3 (#4)
NBC – Dateline
Viewers: 6.71 million (#3), A18-49: 1.5/ 4 (#3)
Fox – The Simpsons
Viewers: 12.04 million (#1), A18-49: 5.2/13 (#1)
———-
8:30 p.m.
ABC – The Bachelor: Countdown to Juan Pablo
Viewers: 6.25 million (#3), A18-49: 1.8/ 4 (#2)
CBS – Elementary (R)
Viewers: 6.23 million (#4), A18-49: 0.9/ 2 (#4)
NBC – Dateline
Viewers: 7.57 million (#2), A18-49: 1.6/ 4 (#3)
Fox – Bob’s Burgers
Viewers: 6.35 million (#2), A18-49: 3.2/ 8 (#1)
———-
9:00 p.m.
ABC – Revenge
Viewers: 7.01 million (#2), A18-49: 1.9/ 5 (#2)
CBS – The Good Wife
Viewers: 9.51 million (#1), A18-49: 1.5/ 4 (#4)
NBC – Best of Late Night With Jimmy Fallon Primetime Special
Viewers: 5.79 million (#3), A18-49: 1.8/ 4 (#3)
Fox – Family Guy
Viewers: 5.75 million (#4), A18-49: 3.0/ 7 (#1)
———-
9:30 p.m.
ABC – Revenge
Viewers: 6.37 million (#2), A18-49: 1.7/ 4 (#3)
CBS – The Good Wife
Viewers: 8.97 million (#1), A18-49: 1.3/ 3 (#4)
NBC – Best of Late Night With Jimmy Fallon Primetime Special
Viewers: 5.67 million (#3), A18-49: 2.0/ 5 (#2)
Fox – American Dad
Viewers: 5.03 million (#4), A18-49: 2.5/ 6 (#1)
———-
10:00 p.m.
ABC – Betrayal
Viewers: 3.48 million (#3), A18-49: 0.8/ 2 (#3)
CBS – The Mentalist
Viewers: 9.82 million (#1), A18-49: 1.5/ 4 (#2)
NBC – Best of Late Night With Jimmy Fallon Primetime Special
Viewers: 5.40 million (#3), A18-49: 2.0/ 5 (#1)
———-
10:30 p.m.
ABC – Betrayal
Viewers: 3.27 million (#3), A18-49: 0.7/ 2 (#3)
CBS – The Mentalist
Viewers: 10.04 million (#1), A18-49: 1.5/ 4 (#2)
NBC – Best of Late Night With Jimmy Fallon Primetime Special
Viewers: 5.99 million (#2), A18-49: 2.2/ 6 (#1)
Revenge got a 1.8!!!! The viewership must be wrong, though
ReplyDeleteRevengeeeeee!
ReplyDeleteAs much buzz as the Good Wife is getting, it should have done better than that. I was kinda bullish on it getting a surprise renewal, but I don't think it's coming back.
ReplyDeleteSo much yes for Revenge's increase :D!
ReplyDeleteI was thinking the same... I gasped when I saw 13 millions viewers! It's probably the sum of the two half hours, not the average...
ReplyDeleteYep, fixed :)
ReplyDeleteNice 0.3 bumps for Revenge!
ReplyDeleteIt's really impresive that it got up 3 tenths without OUAT as lead in. I think this is the highest rated episode since week 2, which is also pretty nice. I think the audience will follow to 10PM :)
ReplyDeleteNo offense Revenge beats good wife by .04 in the demo yet its considered a loser but the good wife gets honorable mention- whats wrong with this guy
ReplyDeleteI feel revenge will be fine at 10 but should be on a weekday (it should take Nashville's place)
ReplyDeleteBermans analysis is based on the early Household and Retention Numbers, and NOT the 18-49 and Total Viewers Demos.
ReplyDeleteStill the early Household numbers were up from Revenge's last original, so... there is something off
ReplyDeleteThis is not about OUAT, this is about the fact that there wasn't TWD against Revenge...
ReplyDeleteThe Mentalist took a hit.
ReplyDeleteThat does not matter in the slightest in terms of Retention
ReplyDeleteRevenge went up 3 tents im Happy for it! GO GO GO! it`s sad that the show has gone so low in ratings D:
ReplyDeleteJust curious, but did the 'finals' for Thursday ever come out?
ReplyDeleteNo yet. You can always check to see if they have been released by going here
ReplyDeletehttp://stvplus.com/ratings
And selecting the Date you want to check. When they are released they are posted there first.
Almost 10 million for The Mentalist! Yay!
ReplyDeleteWoohoo Revenge! That's an improvement even if it adjusts down. I take it TWD didn't air yesterday - that just proves what we've been saying for a long time, that the show is in an impossibly competitive slot. I wonder what would happen, theoretically, if Revenge and Scandal swapped timeslots.
ReplyDeleteP.S. That Revenge is classified a "loser" further proves the idiocy of Berman's rating system. Why are this guy's analyses even posted?
That depends - is the number of viewers it lost due to not airing after OUaT outweighed by the number it gained since it wasn't competing with TWD? To test that theory, Revenge would have to air without OUaT but against TWD.
ReplyDeleteSo relieved to see Revenge adjusting up 3 tenths! :)
ReplyDeleteOkay and thanks. :)
ReplyDeleteI know it probably was inflated by football but how can he not name Bob's Burgers a winner or at least a honorable mention. 2nd highest 18-49 rating of the night. In fact all the Fox comedies deserved to be called winners.
ReplyDeleteI think it's just trying to break away from the lead becomes they become partners for 2 years now. These ratings prove in some way that revenge doesn't have to be lead in dependent. Plus I think it does better because a longer wait would probably mean lower ratings in return but that can't be proven. Also I don't think they are random episodes. The title of the March 9 ep is "Payback" I think which means these 3 eps set up a major set back for Emily. So when it does go on break in 2 weeks it will have a powerful return to anticipate
ReplyDeleteI think CBS will let go of it as well as the mentalist. They should probably stop airing any original programming on Sundays because the declines are just sad but then again CBS dramas almost always skew older for some reason
ReplyDeleteYes, that's really great BUT 1.5 is isn't and the latter matters for renewal/cancellation as sad as it is. I still hope for a 7th season even if the chances are low.
ReplyDeleteFOX inflated (without football, those animations aren't able to pull low 2s)
ReplyDeleteTGW dropped, unfortunately, could go either way.
Lol Berman is a joke, doesn't he know that HH ratings are secondary? Why is he being paid to do those analysis?
wow at revenge but why is it classified as a loser while the good wife gets an honorable mention weird since revenge beat the good wife by .04 in the demo
ReplyDeleteThis guy bases his winner/loser classification on total viewers, which is ridiculous because that bit of data means nothing in terms the show's success and chances of survival. If Revenge loses 2 million viewers but rises 0.2 in the demo in a certain week, that's good news. But there you go.
ReplyDeleteI was really worried for the Mentalist with the hiatus but strong!
ReplyDelete1.5 is not bad early season six episodes pulled in 1.2/3 still hoping for 1.6 though!
ReplyDeletewell i think when twd comes back in february revenge will go down again x)
ReplyDeleteRevenge is not airing in February. After the 19th of January Revenge goes on a break and only starts airing again on March 9th when it moves to the 10 pm slot. The break was planed for ABC's serialized dramas (Scandal, Greys, OUAT, Revenge). In February you have the Winter Olympics, and only a few shows will be airing then (NCIS, Walking Dead, ...). I think its actually good timing for Revenge to come back on 9th March, so ABC can show promos for it during The Oscars (airs 2nd March).
ReplyDeleteI take it they also scheduled it this way so that OUaT and Revenge wouldn't take a hit from award shows, like last year - although they still left Revenge to deal with the Golden Globes next week. *sighs*
ReplyDeleteI hope this week's number is a positive sign. It sort of simulates Revenge's new slot in March - without OUaT as a lead-in, but also without the deadly competition from TWD (does Sunday night football air at 10pm? I have no idea). Granted, the 10pm slot tends to be lower-rated, especially when you have a lead-in as weak (presumably) as Resurrection. Still, I'm allowing myself some guarded optimism now because under similar conditions to the ones Revenge will have in March, it did well enough. If it stays north of 1.5 for the rest of the season, renewal should be a no-brainer.
I don't think he even bases it on total viewers because he doesn't know the total viewers yet when he does the classification. He does it based on the household numbers which is even worst because of how misleading the demo groups covered are.
ReplyDeleteEven though Berman's analysis are very stupid, I still prefer to have them than nothing for the 2 hours in the afternoon it takes for the ratings to get posted for those of us in Europe. You should have to learn how to deal with them.
ReplyDeleteAs for Revenge, I think TWD not airing helped a bit but then is somehow counterbalanced by the incredible spike in Downtown Abbey which one would actually think to be more compatible competition to Revenge. I think there were other two factors that helped. One was the huge buzz from the fall finale and the other was the fact that The Bachelor is probably an extremely compatible lead-in for it. I have been saying for a very long time that people don't know how to read lead-ins and I think this is another example - it's the Body of Proof paradigm (i.e. a lead-in being high rated matters, but it matters much more how compatible it is and often it is preferable to have a lower rated albeit more compatible lead-in than a higher rated and incompatible lead-in)
I think in the next two weeks it will get a bit more clear what will happen once we see how Intelligence does. I still don't have many questions that The Mentalist will be cancelled before The Good Wife is. But if Intelligence works, they either cancel a comedy hour (I kind of think this is what would work best for them when all is said and done but I am not betting on this just yet) or they have to ax The Good Wife or they have to cancel Blue Bloods. The Good Wife's syndication deal is so huge that I have a really hard time imagining CBS will stick with Blue Bloods instead, at least until I see the syndication deal that show scores. Also, I cannot imagine CBS replacing two Sunday shows in the same season. They would have to promote Sunday a lot, which they clearly aren't interested in doing.
ReplyDeleteI think they should do Survivor-TAR-The Good Wife next year.
ReplyDeleteI think there are other factors in the mix which prevent that analysis that you are trying to do. Besides, I am not even sure we can interpret this week considering how much Revenge has fluctuated this season in normal circumstances. The whole 1.4-1.7-1.3-1.5 for instance that occurred in the span of 4 weeks in the fall occurred without any major change in competition or lead-in. There is really no difference in it rising from 1.4 to 1.7 to it rising from 1.5 to 1.8!
ReplyDeleteI think there is no Sunday Night Football in the Spring, I believe it is only during Fall, but I could be mistaken here. Next week I will be very angry with ABC for having Revenge deal with the Globes AGAIN after what happened last year.
ReplyDeleteI think Revenge may work in the 10pm slot, but to say that the conditions will be the same is a gross mistake IMO. It will have an unproven (that could easily be low rated) lead-in, not to mention for sure more incompatible than The Bachelor was. On top of that, it will air in a lower viewed hour. Those two things are huge.
Sunday Night Football ends after the Super bowl and NBC's Sunday ratings then take a skydive.
ReplyDeleteI don't think we can analyze Revenge's yesterday ratings without knowing if the full (network + cable) ratings were higher this Sunday than the previous one that had full competition, the breakdown between network and cable in both etc.
ReplyDeleteLike, there's bad weather in the east coast and obviously more people stayed at home and had nothing better to do than watching TV, that assuming they had electricity..
Ok you have a point in the random episodes thing, I was not aware that this had been planned all along, not so bad then. Still, I fail to see how these ratings prove anything or why did they have to do it. Revenge had a lead-in that was roughly on par with OUAT has been doing late fall (1.9-2.1 compared to the 1.8) and that one can make the case that is more compatible, so you can actually say that there wasn't a change for worst in terms of that. I have long tried to alert people to not not undervalue the importance of compatibility when looking at lead-ins. Quite often, a higher rated lead-in is worst than a lower rated lead-in (unless the differences are very substantial) if the second one is more compatible than the other - it's the Body of Proof paradigm! Last year, Body of Proof:
ReplyDelete- 1.2 out of a 2.6 from the Bachelor
- 1.2 out of 1.4 from The Taste
- 1.3 out of 1.2 from The Taste
- 1.2 out of 1.1 from The Taste
- 1.5 out of 2.0 DWTS
- 1.6 out of 2.5 DWTS
- It would then remain on this 1.4-1.6 range while airing out of DWTS before going back to 1.2 out of 1.2 from Extreme Weight Loss
1.2 was clear its usual level regardless of lead-in and even a high rated lead-in like The Bachelor was unable to change that! Yet, the compatible DWTS was able to put it consistently on the 1.4-1.6 range, despite being lower rated!
There are more examples of this (Parks and Recreation out of Community for instance), but my point is that you cannot interpret lead-ins just by looking at the number per se. Revenge may very well had had a better situation last night in terms of lead-in (independent of the whole competition and post fall finale thing) than it had the whole season if it was indeed much more compatible with The Bachelor than with OUAT. We cannot know for sure because even though we are all very happy about the 0.3 bump, the fact is that Revenge had a similar bump (1.4 to 1.7 in the fall without any change in lead-in or competition), so we cannot conclude that this one is due to X or Y.
Regardless, I still wouldn't see the point in putting Revenge airing in January particularly considering what it will have to go up against. If it works and pulls great numbers (which is very doubtful considering the competition ahead), it will be great but then again, if it is able to do it now it would be able to do it at 10pm later on, so why risk it? If it doesn't work, the only thing it will achieve will be to weaken Revenge before moving it to a weaker timeslot. It's a high risk, low reward move.
Yes, that was more or less my point. Too much stuff changed last night for Revenge:
ReplyDelete- coming back from buzzy fall finale
- new lead-in
- different competition (no TWD or Homeland, but Downtown Abbey)
On top of all this, what I was trying to say was that just a couple of months ago, Revenge increased the same 0.3 tenths without changes in any of these factors, so ultimately, this could simply be a week to week fluctuation and nothing more (at least part of it!). Knowing the cable ratings et all won't help you get a better read of this IMO!
Yeah I am dreading the ratings that Believe and Crisis will get. I am kind of interested in Crisis though, which is too bad.
ReplyDeleteYeah, but you don't know if the total 18-49 changed during the week Revenge suddenly increased. TVBTN only provide such info if there's a decrease of at least 5% or during the week of the DST clock change, I've yet to see them providing such info on increases.
ReplyDeleteI'm kind of interested in Believe but the news about two showrunners departing make me wonder if it's worth to check it..
ReplyDeleteRevenge has fluctuated way too much this season for me to believe changes in overall viewership level can explain it. Just the week after the one I mentioned it fell 0.4. Maybe it plays a role but there is so much influencing it. Also, I am not sure the overall viewership level can have a meaning here. A bigger football game can easily cause a higher viewing level even though that's just because people who wouldn't otherwise watch TV will be watching football.
ReplyDeleteYeah, good point about The Bachelor. I wouldn't have pegged it as a compatible lead-in for Revenge, but you can't argue with the numbers. OUaT, on the other hand, clearly doesn't do much for Revenge, and would probably be better able to help another lighthearted fantasy-type show.
ReplyDeleteIf The Bachelor played an important part in Revenge's rise this week then yeah, it's going to have it tough in the new slot. I guess there's no way to know because as you mentioned in several places, the show's numbers have been all over the place this season, without any sort of logical pattern.
ReplyDeleteI hope the "second" midseason finale, in two weeks, is also a huge episode that gains the show buzz going forward (although holding on to that buzz for nearly two months is going to be quite the task...). After the latest episode, part of me suspects a game-changer as big as everyone finding out Emily is Amanda could be coming. I also hope that, as suggested earlier, ABC uses the Emmys to promote Revenge's return one week later, although given their overall level of giving a crap about the show, I'm not holding my breath.
This is such a novice question, lol, but could you explain the difference between HH and total numbers? Does the HH number only cover main markets or something?
ReplyDeleteNo problems! The household numbers cover the number of houses that tuned in. The total viewer numbers counts the numbre of people >2 years old that tuned in. So, let's say you have a house with 1 guy 18-49 and you have a house with a entire family of 5 people living there (2 18-49, 3 <18) and a house with a couple of older people (>49), it will all be counted as 3 households, while they would be counted as 8 people and as 3 18-49ers.
ReplyDeleteYes, I hope the winter (easier than "midseason" lol) is buzzy as well! But it would also help to finish the January run strong. Next week I fear it will be way down as it was last year and as DH used to be before. The week after is the NCF (which FOX will use the launch the following) which last week had it taking a huge hit as well (also post Globes). So basically the so much hated awards season run they had last year will be the same this year except for the Grammy Awards, the other two nights they will burn Revenge, again! The Bachelor in-season specials were very high rated last year on Tuesday though so I have some hope that they do the same on Sundays and help Revenge along the way.
ReplyDeleteI am not arguing with the numbers, I am just saying that sometimes it's not as crystal clear as a 2.1 lead-in being better than a 1.8 lead-in. Check out my post below that has the numbers explaining the Body of Proof paradigm from last year, I think it gets pretty clear why I am saying this!
ReplyDeleteOy First we have gay marriage....now this
ReplyDeleteOh, that's not what I meant. My sentence was intended as "I didn't think The Bachelor would be a good lead-in, but Revenge's rose with it - I can't argue with those numbers."
ReplyDeleteI agree that compatibility in a lead-in is more important than the lead-in's own ratings, there are plenty of examples of shows losing half and more of their high-rated lead-in's audience. Nothing The CW puts on Thursday at 9pm manages to hold onto TVD's viewers, for example, and no one's gonna argue with the notion of TVD being a hit.
Ah, I see. This must be part of the bizarreness of the Nielsen system, because how on earth would you know how many people were in the house at the time? The TV may even have been left on, with no one at home.
ReplyDeleteAnyway, thanks. :)
I am not aware of how do they count how many people were on the house at the time but I know they have a system of verifying if someone is actually watching every 5 minutes or so. I think it involves you clicking on something, I am not sure. I know that's a reason why some people don't want to have Nielsen boxes.
ReplyDeleteAh, I see, sorry about that!
ReplyDeleteI have my own caveats about the interpretation that TVD is a bad lead-in as we have discussed before though. I cannot think of a single show they've put there that should have worked but it didn't except maybe for The Secret Circle and that one I can attribute to a weak first half of a season that slowly drifted viewers away (it was holding to more than half of TVD's lead-in earlier on) and that's the best you can hope for for a quasi-spin off show. Nikita was obviously never meant to be a ratings winner regardless of how much we both love it. Also, the CW has insisted on trying shows aimed at W18-34 in the hour when the biggest drama in network TV on that demo airs in the hour (Grey's Anatomy), not to mention Glee in recent seasons as well. The Vampire Diaries for instance doesn't have that type of similar competition to deal with, even though it has the beast TBBT which more than makes up for that - in practice, I am trying to make the same argument with competition that I make with lead-ins, which is that compatibility of competition also matters more than the number per se. And the CW shows that have been placed there have always been heavily directed to W18-34 which are unavailable at the time, with the exception of Supernatural (which did work) and Nikita (but Nikita is unfortunately an unpopular show, and I kind of think that back in Season 1, not only was it at its weakest in the first half of the season when it bled viewers, but also that they were trying to make it more appealing to W18-34 when they should have done exactly the opposite). I realize that you can probably quote instances in which GA and Glee were off and still the CW 9pm show didn't improve but I don't think competition changes work that way (in that sense, it's different from changes in lead-ins) because I don't truly believe a significant number of people will randomly watch a show they normally don't because their usual choice is off in the hour, especially CW shows that tend to be heavily serialized. This is why I kind of think the CW should have tried TVD-The 100 instead of Reign early in the fall.
The Mentalist got adjusted up 1.6 yay!
ReplyDeleteYes, you got it right with the catch-22 ;) I don't particularly like the idea of The Flash there for some reason though, I think it's better used either taking advantage of the inevitably huge Arrow compatibility or establishing a CW presence on Monday nights with Supernatural. But yeah, you got the idea. I really feel they should have placed The 100 there because I feel that the show should have enough to attract part of TVD's audience and to attract male audience on top of it. Also, I think you neglect the power of a show like GA. I think Scandal now regularly wins it in terms of W18-34 but for many years no other drama on broadcast (and I am not sure about comedies) would beat GA in that demo. If that's mostly all the demo that the CW competing shows can hope to attract, then that's the biggest death sentence there is. My point is: the absolute numbers that your competition pulls matter, yeah, but it's even more relevant how compatible that competition is with you. For instance, I am certain that a show like Reign would score better if it had regularly to face, let's say, The Simpsons instead of Grey's Anatomy, even if The Simpsons had a 1.00 advantage over GA!
ReplyDeleteIn regards to your final paragraph, I don't know that it seems unlikely that all shows would have failed no matter what. Out of the 4 shows that have aired there (not counting Reign), only The Secret Circle didn't get a chance to show it would do in another slot. Nikita and Beauty and the Beast clearly failed when moved - so why wouldn't they have failed in their first seasons as well? Supernatural didn't fail when moved ,but then again, it didn't fail on the slot. The only instance that remains to be proved is The Secret Circle but it was trending down so sharply that I don't think it's a leap to assume it would continue to do so. So yeah, I realize that it seems unlikely in theory, but all the evidence points to a problem with the shows rather than a problem with the slot. In my opinion, the problems were intensified by the extremely compatible competition of the slot, but I do believe the shows would have failed regardless (it's like saying Super Fun Night would work if it was not behind Modern Family)
I'd get started on how Nikita's move was to Friday, but I've been yelling about that to the point of being blue in the face for the last year and a half, so yeah. :)
ReplyDeleteAnyway, though, if all the previous shows failed because they sucked, that would seem to indicate that once a good enough show was placed there, it would soar regardless of competition or compatibility with TVD. No?
I realize that Nikita was moved to Friday but I was judging the "failure" taking that into account. Even giving it a generous Friday factor and considering that it was young for a Friday move, it was still a big failure ratings wise.
ReplyDeleteOn to the bigger point, my opinion is that it is a combination of both. The shows that have been placed there have been wrong for the slot and have been wrong shows as well. Maybe you can make the case that Reign is the show that will show us that it is just wrong for the slot if it's move next year and still succeeds. For instance, I am sure that had you placed a show like Arrow in there it would absolutely soar because it would get enough eyeballs from TVD AND attract all the male audience that it already attracts and that's watching nothing else on that time (this whole competition thing has a little caveat though which is Thursday night football in the fall.. which again would have made a Spring launch for The 100 here perfect). On the other hand, my opinion is that if you had placed The Originals here it would do roughly the same as it does now on Tuesdays because the additional benefit from leading-out of TVD would cancel out from the more compatible competition dynamics (it has effectively the entire broadcast arena for itself as Dads and B99 go for M18-34, NCIS and TBL go for the A25-54 and Shield seeks the M18-49, leaving The Originals to clean up the W18-34 left).
[Note: I don't mean to sound sexist or anything by constantly claiming that certain shows appeal to males or females. I watch a bunch of shows that are supposed to be heavily female friendly such as TO or TVD for instance and the reality is that there are very few shows on network TV that truly skew more male than female. I am using these labels because they are an easy way to communicate but I mean "a certain type of audience" when I use them, it doesn't necessarily mean it has to be all male or female, just the type of public that would like that product. For instance, the type of people that would watch Reign have probably a big overlap with those who watch Grey's Anatomy and Glee, regardless of the age and sex they have - the fact that all are very strong in W18-34 is just an evidence of that, but it doesn't appear there is no overlap in other groups. Sorry about the rambling, just didn't want to seem too "labelist" eheh]
If I understand what you're saying correctly (we've now brought so many factors into it that I'm getting a headache, heh), it seems The CW is in a bit of a Catch 22 with the Thursday 9pm slot. On the one hand, they need a female-skewing (18-34 specifically) show to hold TVD's audience. On the other hand, they need a show that isn't female-skewing because the 9pm slot is too competitive in that regard, with Glee, GA and whatnot. (Although Glee is free-falling and on its last legs, and while GA is strong, it's hardly a death sentence to any show that airs against it.)
ReplyDeleteI'm thinking maybe they should put The Flash in that slot next year. There's no need to pair it with Arrow, really, given how well The Originals does away from its parent show. They need some kind of big fantasy show that would have that in common with TVD, but also generate enough buzz and media attention to hold its own at 9pm. The Flash is a more famous superhero than Green Arrow, to my knowledge, and having him introduced on Arrow before giving him his own show will probably draw even Arrow viewers who aren't DC fans. It's going to be huge. So really, that show is set to become the network's next hit, unless it downright sucks.
(Of course, a much simpler explanation for all the post-TVD shows failing would be that they were all bad, and wouldn't have performed well no matter where they were placed. But that seems unlikely. When there's a pattern in a certain timeslot with 4 different shows, you have to assume it has something to do with the slot itself, like the compatibility issue.)