First I would like to apologize for this article taking a week longer than it was supposed to, but these past weeks have been crazy at work and I really lacked the time to write this properly. Despite the delay though, tomorrow I will give you the normal weekly article! It will be a different article, dealing with statistics and tops from this and that, so make sure to check it out if that kind of stuff interests you! Anyway, without further delay, let's take a look at the last shows we're missing, which are NBC and CBS comedies.
NBC comedies are averaging a paltry 1.00 in most recent airings. Now, as you may have realized, I am an extreme believer in relative ratings within the same category being the relevant ones as opposed to absolute ones. I still stand by that but, in the case of NBC comedies, I think things must be put into context and I think simply looking at the ratings of these 2 hours of programming is not enough. NBC comedies are performing 41% lower than NBC dramas in most recent airings! That's a lot of under-performance there and I think that must be taken into account somehow. The somehow I am using for the time being is to use NBC's overall scripted average instead of solely the one from these 4 comedies, which is 1.60 right now. Taking this into account, let's divide the shows into the usual tiers (note relative order within each tier is random):
NBC comedies are averaging a paltry 1.00 in most recent airings. Now, as you may have realized, I am an extreme believer in relative ratings within the same category being the relevant ones as opposed to absolute ones. I still stand by that but, in the case of NBC comedies, I think things must be put into context and I think simply looking at the ratings of these 2 hours of programming is not enough. NBC comedies are performing 41% lower than NBC dramas in most recent airings! That's a lot of under-performance there and I think that must be taken into account somehow. The somehow I am using for the time being is to use NBC's overall scripted average instead of solely the one from these 4 comedies, which is 1.60 right now. Taking this into account, let's divide the shows into the usual tiers (note relative order within each tier is random):
Tier 3:
- Parks and Recreation
Syndication: Yes
Production Company: NBC
Ratings Average: 1.00 (65%)
There are so many factors affecting this one! What are the pros? A) The show is produced by NBC and has a syndication deal with WGN network. Although I could not find mention of values for the deal, any additional episode that airs will have at least some additional incoming source other than ratings. B) Although I haven't been paying much attention to it this year, Parks (and Community) used to have some of the best 18-34s ratings among NBC, which could help its ad revenue. C) The show will move to 8h30 come January, following Community, and historically it has done a much better job in that arrangement than in the current one, so there is hope its ratings pick up. D) If there is a surrender hour again next year, I think Parks is perfectly positioned to take a spot in it. What are the cons? A) The ratings are lousy. 65% is bad regardless of how we look at it. The ad revenue is probably very low, even taking into account the 18-34 B) NBC has a clear image/PR problem with their comedies. Wiping the state clean might give them a higher long term gain than whatever syndication revenue Parks brings. C) Realistically, I don't see any other spot (except maybe as midseason replacement) in which they would put Parks other than Thursdays at 8h or 8h30. That's very limiting per se and the only way it gets to return to Thursdays at 8 is if it's again a surrender hour. But if they do attack Thursdays at 9 with something like The Blacklist next year, it stands to reason that they would like to give it further support from 8pm than what a surrender hour could provide. Reality such as The Biggest Looser or the variety show everyone is talking about would probably be better options there to support the 9pm anchor than a pair of rating loser comedies.
Where does all these leave Parks? Honestly, I have no idea. If the ratings shoot up enough at 8h30 then I think NBC finds some way of bringing it back if costs are controlled. But even though I see ratings improving from what they were this fall, I don't see them improving enough to make it a clear decision. It sucks for me as a predictor but I think it will be a tough call at the end regardless. For the time being, Parks and Recreation is a clear bubble show
Where does all these leave Parks? Honestly, I have no idea. If the ratings shoot up enough at 8h30 then I think NBC finds some way of bringing it back if costs are controlled. But even though I see ratings improving from what they were this fall, I don't see them improving enough to make it a clear decision. It sucks for me as a predictor but I think it will be a tough call at the end regardless. For the time being, Parks and Recreation is a clear bubble show
Tier 5:
- Sean Saves the World
Syndication: No
Production Company: NBC
Ratings Average: 1.00 (65%)
I am not even going to pretend there is any doubt in this prediction. 65% may be a level that puts a veteran show like Parks as a bubble one but it is not a level at which newbie shows get renewed unless there are some extreme circumstances involved, which is not the case here. It is certain to be cancelled.
- The Michael J. Fox Show
Syndication: No
Production Company: NBC
Ratings Average: 0.90 (55%)
This is Sean Saves the World all over again. Newbie shows are not renewed at this low ratings level, no matter which super star is involved in the show. It is certain to be cancelled.
Let's now talk about CBS comedies. Even though I didn't do it on purpose, it's kind of fitting that I've left these for last, seeing as how CBS comedies are the ones in which I feel the least able to predict whatever is going to happen. I really hope that Spring ratings make this all more clear than it currently is; for now, I apologize for the lack of actual predictions, but I won't be making them just for the sake of doing so if I don't have facts to support them. CBS comedies are averaging a very impressive 2.70 in most recent airings (even though if you remove TBBT, this falls down to 2.40). Let's see in which tiers each one of them places (as always, order within tiers is random):
Tier 1:
- The Big Bang Theory
Syndication: Yes
Production Company: Not CBS
Ratings Average: 5.10 (190%)
As much as I like to present things from all perspectives in this article, there is no perspective from which The Big Bang Theory is in any sort of danger of not being renewed. The show is a monster in ratings and is a monster in syndication. It is certain to be renewed!
- 2 Broke Girls
Syndication: No, although it already has a deal
Production Company: Not CBS
Ratings Average: 2.60 (95%)
This is yet another story in which regardless of our perception of the ratings in terms of being a disappointment or not (and I would personally agree with those that claim that its ratings this year have been very underwhelming), renewal is by no means in question. Not only is 95% a level still perfectly compatible with a certain renewal (especially when you consider that one of the two shows that does beat it is about to leave the air and the air is a mega hit that competes only with itself in another stratosphere), but the show also has another very powerful gun: syndication. TBS agreed to a deal in which it will be paying $1,700,000 per episode. This is the highest deal for any comedy I could find mention of, even beating the 2010 deal for The Big Bang Theory. With a price as high as this one, I am certain that the production company would be willing to offer the show for free to CBS if needed be to ensure that the show does reach the 88 episodes needed (and probably that it goes beyond that). The combination of these two factors make it a certain renewal anyway we look at it!
- Mike and Molly
Syndication: Yes
Production Company: Not CBS
Ratings Average: 2.20 (80%)
To be very honest, I debated a bit if this show should be placed in Tier 1 or Tier 2. While I don't feel it's as safe as The Big Bang Theory or 2 Broke Girls, I also cannot find any objective reason for a difference, as the show is certain to be back. Why is the show certain to be back? Well, for starters, because the ratings are still acceptable and within renewal boundaries, especially because these 80% are somehow deflated (see explanation for 2 Broke Girls). The second reason is that the show has a nice syndication deal with FX; while the deal is not nearly as attractive as the one 2 Broke Girls got - Mike and Molly gets $750,000 per episode - it's still good enough to guarantee that the production company would be motivated to offer the show at a lower cost, thus effectively increasing CBS's profitability from it. Third, and related to the second one, the show is on that perfect area between "already in syndication" but "before contracts negotiations are up" (typically after season 5 or 6) that makes achieving 100 episodes a very attractive goal. Finally, CBS is known for holding one comedy for sparkle each year (they did it for years with Rules and they did it this year with Mike and Molly) and this show still is the best positioned show for that role again, which means that even if it doesn't get a fall placement, it will get a 5th season order with no problem. The show is certain to be renewed!
Tier 3
We get to Tier 3 and we get to what I was talking about before, which is my inability to predict what will happen with the shows from now on. I firmly believe that, for the time being, the 4 remaining CBS comedies (Mom, The Millers, The Crazy Ones and Two and a Half Men) belong to this tier as their fate is up in the air. I will introduce each very briefly and then address the factors that will decide their fates all together to avoid repetition.
- The Millers
Syndication: No
Production Company: CBS
Ratings Average: 2.60 (95%)
I feel like I have to be very careful when explaining why this one is on the bubble as I don't want to be labeled as a retentionista (as in, someone who judges a show's likelihood of renewal based on a show does compared with its lead-in) so I apologize for how long this one turned out to be. While I do feel that retention theories are mostly a misconception that do not find empirical support in the way networks make their decisions, I do think there is a case to be made for shows that follow ridiculously high rated lead-ins, especially half hour shows in which the effect is much more severe (because ratings are calculated for 30 minutes instead of 60, meaning the initial impact of the lead-in is not as much smoothed over the hour as in the case of an hour long). There are, however, very few instances in which I think this logic does apply (I would limit these to pretty much the shows following The Big Bang Theory and Modern Family in fact). Now, let me be perfectly clear: in no way I ever expected The Millers to perform in any level close to The Big Bang Theory nor did it needed to to be a certain renewal in my book. However, I do believe that it would be expected for the show to do a bit better than be 15-20% higher in terms of relative ratings than the other newbies who are basically self starting or using much lower lead-ins. This means that I didn't expect the Millers to perform at 195% like The Big Bang Theory, at all, but I would expect it to perform at something like 115-120%. As it stands, I can't help but feel that it is basically the same show (or worse) than The Crazy Ones, Mom or Two and a Half Men but masked by a higher lead-in. Case in point: in the night in which CBS aired it after a repeat from Big Bang, the show scored a 2.1, which puts it right on the same level as the other bubble shows! What's more, the show still had a decent lead-in from the Big Bang Repeat, a 2.6. That 2.6 is higher than most lead-ins Mom and Two and a Half Men have been getting this year and is exactly on the same level as the lead-in The Crazy Ones has been getting (in fact, on the same night, The Crazy Ones scored a 1.9 after that 2.1 lead-in from The Millers). Now, you can ask, why would CBS care about this if the show keeps pulling the ratings? After all, the numbers are what they are, regardless of the reasons. And I would agree, except that I think there is little chance that CBS would use the monster Big Bang lead-in another year in a show that cannot go higher than mid 2s. The show would most likely have to be moved if renewed, which is why looking at how much is ratings are artificially inflated by Big Bang matters. Any show would fall if moved away from Big Bang, that's normal and expected. That is also why it is expected of shows following Big Bang to build more of a buffer than the one The Millers has gotten for itself. As it stands, I firmly believe that the 95% from The Millers are equivalent to the 75% from Mom, TCO and TAHM, which is why The Millers is a bubble show! (For the record, if you have trouble believing that these extreme cases in which retention does matter, I would advise you to consider the fact, for instance, that Super Fun Night didn't get a full series order whereas The Goldbergs and Trophy Wife did with much lower ratings at the time in which it happened - same principle).
- Two and a Half Men
Syndication: Yes
Production Company: Not CBS
Ratings Average: 2.10 (80%)
While 80% is normally still decent enough for a renewal in most cases (although not all) as long as it is not a freshman show, Two and a Half Men is an odd one due to its age and very high costs. The show is syndicated which certainly helps to mitigate the costs, but the truth is that it's possible that not even that is enough to offset the huge paychecks without large enough rating. Sadly though, it is impossible to find enough publicly available information for me to know for sure the figures we're talking about here. For that reason, the show is a bubble show for the time being!
- Mom
Syndication: No
Production Company: Not CBS
Ratings Average: 2.00 (75%)
A 75% ratings average for a newbie show is just pure bubble level. It has some pros in its favor but could easily be the case that there is no space on the schedule for it or that CBS feel that it can do better with a new show. Because it could go either way, it is a bubble show.
- The Crazy Ones
Syndication: No
Production Company: Not CBS
Ratings Average: 2.10 (80%)
This is the Mom thing all over again, as in, freshman show in a ratings level that is just too average for it to be clear in which direction it could go. As such, I a declaring it a bubble show
Now, in regards to these bubble shows:
- what are the issues that will determine how many of these shows are back? There are two: 1) How many comedy hours CBS keeps next year and 2) How many new comedies do they premiere. At this point, I am not even going to try to address these. There are just too many ways this could go and a lot depends on development season, which is something we are not privy to. My guess, and is just a guess, is that they keep the 4 comedy hours and air 3 new comedies, one replacing a bubble show, 1 replacing How I Met Your Mother and 1 replacing Mike and Molly (to be held again), which, in addition to the 2 new dramas, would total the usual 3.5 hours of new programming that CBS usually does. However, I think there is a fairly decent chance that they cut down the comedy hours and air a new drama on the very good slot that is Thursdays at 9 (I will dwell on this later in the season if it's appropriate). If that happens, I think they keep only 1 bubble comedy and premiere 2 new ones. Unfortunately, no way of knowing for sure at this moment.
- what is the pecking order of shows? Because they are in such different situations (old show, new show higher rated by propped up by huge lead-in, new show, new show), it's hard for me to judge. I hope Spring ratings create ratings gap large enough between them for me to make a decent call because, right now, I would have a really hard time guessing what comes back and what doesn't, which is why I think all of them are bubble shows.
2 Broke Girls – To be renewed
Mike and Molly – To be renewed
Mom– To be determined
Parks and Recreation – To be determined
Sean Saves the World – To be cancelled
The Big Bang Theory – To be renewed
The Crazy Ones – To be determined
The Michael J. Fox Show – To be cancelled
The Millers – To be determined
Two and a Half Men – To be determined
And with this, we finally have our prediction table complete! Thanks for reading and remember to check out tomorrow for the new article as well!
Previous Articles:
State of ABC and FOX Comedies
State of FOX and NBC Dramas
State of CW Dramas
State of CBS Dramas
State of ABC Dramas
ABC Sundays
Renewals and Cancellations Decisions and TV Numbers 101 [FAQ]
Great read Oma.
ReplyDeleteThe strange thing is that I prefer the FOX and NBC comedies but they do so poorly when compared to CBS.
I've always wondered if the CBS comedies were on NBC/FOX and the NBC/FOX ones were on CBS that they would do just as well/poorly ie Any Comedy, no matter how good bad will always do well on CBS and bad on FOX/NBC
Thank you, as always great work Oma!
ReplyDeleteAt least there's never any problem with TBBT ;)
But other than that, I'm rooting for Parks and Rec & The Crazy Ones - they're my favorites here and also the only ones I watch :)
Not necessarily. See what happened to We Are Men and Partners.
ReplyDeleteGlad Big Bang & 2 Broke Girls are safe.Only comedies I watch.
ReplyDeleteThanks so much for this. I love in depth analysis of ratings. I'm going to go back and read all the articles, just to get the full picture in my mind.
ReplyDeleteThanks @Sharon Seymour !
ReplyDeleteI too think the same. I think that some networks have a brand associated with them that will make a certain number of people sample their products regardless. ABC with family comedies, CBS with broad appeal multi cam comedies, CBS with their procedurals. For instance, I think if Sean Saves the World was placed on CBS it would have gotten numbers like We Are Men and not the colossal numbers it gets on NBC. Sometimes, I also feel that some comedies are on the wrong networks. The Crazy Ones for instance would belong better on FOX or ABC I feel. Mixology totally feels like a FOX comedy. Cougar Town always felt like an NBC comedy to me. And so on!
I don't think that's what she meant. We Are Men and Partners, although failures by CBS standards, would have been hits for NBC standards. I think the question was: if you were to place let's say Sean on CBS, do you think it would still get the 0.9s it gets on NBC, considering not even a repeat of a CBS comedy does that? Likewise, if you were to place We Are Men on NBC, would it be also below 1?
ReplyDeleteThanks @Justyna Kubica !
ReplyDeleteAnd yes, at least you don't have to worry about TBBT, it's great that that one is always safe as I adore it! As for The Crazy Ones, I also adore it, it's a problem that its ratings don't improve :S Parks I never watched even though I've been meaning to for ages as I love Community and people tell me it's the same type of humour. Also, I am in love with B99 and it's from the same creators so I should like it too!
Thanks for reading and commenting! Yep, if those are the only one you watch, you are definitely in the clear!
ReplyDeleteI agree, I think there is a chance Men goes. But it's really too soon to tell with the little information we have. I am getting interested in Mom the more people tell me about it but I am not going to watch another bubble comedy for now, The Crazy Ones is enough for me as I love that one. If renewed, I will give it a try. I would think Mom has a better chance of renewal than TCO though.
ReplyDeleteThanks so much for those kind words and for taking the time ;) Glad you like them! If you have any questions afterwards, just let me know!
ReplyDeleteThanks a lot for that. Somehow, my registers got messed up and I had Parks with less 22 episodes than it actually has. I've adjusted the description and the arguments accordingly! Thanks for correcting me and for stopping by.
ReplyDeleteAs for the 30 Rock comparison, I think it's a wrong one. 30 Rock was renewed with rating 95% of its comparable average, a far outcry from the 65% from Parks. 30 Rock was a sure thing, Parks really could go either way.
Thanks a lot for those kind words ;) I am glad you enjoyed it!
ReplyDeleteYeah, Parks and Rec was my favorite comedy last season. Although I have to admit, I started watching the show from the season 2 ending, because the first two seasons just weren't the greatest. But things got SO much better later. And Amy Poehler is wonderful in it! Also, looks like we do have a very similar taste in comedies. I'm also a fan of Community, well, maybe except last season, but hopefully it's gonna get better now ;)
ReplyDeleteYes, Parks and Rec was my favorite comedy last season. Although I have to admit, I started watching the show from the season 2 ending, because the first two seasons just weren't the greatest. But things got SO much better later. And Amy Poehler is wonderful in it!
ReplyDeleteAlso, looks like we do have a very similar taste in comedies. I'm also a fan of Community, well, maybe except last season, but hopefully it's gonna get better now ;)
I did like last season's Community despite what everyone else thought of it. It wasn't as great as the previous ones but the characters I love and the acting was still top notch. But I am looking forward to this season more, that's true ;)
ReplyDeleteWhich other comedies do you enjoy? My comedies are:
ABC: Modern Family, Suburgatory (i love it and I think it' tremendously underrated because I think it's perfect balance of comedy+drama), The Neighbors (this one gets so much hate and will be cancelled by season's end but it's one of my absolute favorite comedies, it's so quirky and enjoyable)
CBS: The Big Bang Theory (just pure hilarious, I laugh all the time and the acting is top notch, one of my absolute favs), How I Met Your Mother, The Crazy Ones
NBC: Just Community
FOX: New Girl, Brooklyn Nine-Nine (I am obsessed with this one)
Cable: Cougar Town
Never watched Suburgatory, The Neighbors, Cougar Town. The rest I watch and very much enjoy. Also some that you don't watch: Trophy Wife, Parks and Rec, and partially (as in, decided to check them out recently and are pretty good) Baby Daddy and Melissa & Joey :)
ReplyDeleteAwesome article, again! And again and again! :D I'm hoping that The Crazy Ones wins the battle of the CBS comedies. And that NBC can have at least ONE succesful comedy next season. Poor network :(
ReplyDeleteWe really have similar taste in comedies it appears ;) I know nothing about Baby Daddy and Melissa & Joey. Parks I really want to check it out and you are giving me more reason to! Also, another one I've started watching recently is Raising Hope and it's pretty great. If you have time, I would recommend checking out The Neighbors and Suburgatory, I think they are amazing ;)
ReplyDeleteThanks ;) I think I enjoy your compliments as much as you enjoy the article ;) And yess, I am rooting for the Crazy Ones baaad! I am not very hopeful that it can win that battle though. I just feel that the show is on the wrong network. But let's remain hopeful! I do think About a Boy could probably work for NBC, let's see.
ReplyDeleteThanks, when I'm finally gonna have some more time, I will definitely check them out. And if you do the same with Parks and Rec: enjoy watching! ;)
ReplyDeleteLikewise ;)
ReplyDeleteKinda sad for the MJFox Show, was seriously happy for him to get a new show and hoping for him to eventually return to do movies (Back to the Future 4 ?) but with his show failing so bad I do actually see him retire for good now -,-
ReplyDeleteGreat read Oma, I seriously love these articles :D
This is why i believe Community and Parks will be renewed... I mean, they need to keep at least a few shows in case all of them fail big time(Like this Season and the one before...). At least these shows have syndication deals(And really good ones in the case of Community with Hulu, Comedy Central and Netflix Latin America).
ReplyDeleteI think it is the first time ever that I don't care for any of the series which are in the "likely to be cancelled" column.
ReplyDeleteHaha, I'm really happy that you enjoy my comments! Your articles are seriously the best and most enjoyable articles on any TV-site that I follow, and I follow a lot of them :) You should be proud of yourself :)
ReplyDeleteI get what you're saying, I could really see The Crazy Ones on Fox. And yeah, I'm looking forward to About a Boy!
CBS seem to have more faith in The Crazy Ones than Mom because of their repeats etc. If Mom+Friends with Better Lives are cancelled and CBS keep the comedy blocks the same. CBS will have 2 open slots in the fall (and 3 if they decide to hold back M&M again, so that's enough as I doubt CBS will premiere more than 2/3 comedies in the fall again).
ReplyDeleteI see this happening
Monday
8:00 - 2 Broke Girls
8:30 - New Comedy / Mike & Molly
9:00 - Two and a Half Men
9:30 - New Comedy
Thursday
8:00 - The Big Bang Theory
8:30 - New Comedy
9:00 - The Millers
9:30 - The Crazy Ones
Something tells me both will be renewed because of Williams , Farris .. I feel like each will get a yr as a second chance. Cbs v nbc is pretty sad. I like TCO more than Mom.
ReplyDeleteGreat article, thanks! TBBT forever :D
ReplyDeleteCBS comedies are really hard to determine. I don't think CBS will cancel 2 Chuck Lorre shows in 1 season. And between those i would think they would choose Mom. TAAHM is older and really expensive and the actors would probably have to agree to a pay cut. The Millers for me are kind of safe, even though ratings aren't the greatest behind TBBT but its a CBS owned sitcom so they will probably renew it. For me the sitcom that is in most danger is The Crazy Ones. And i mostly think its scheduling. They stuck it between multi cams sitcoms and it just kind of breaks the flow of the night. But its hard being the only single camera on a network, and Bad Teacher seeming to be left for summer burn off, i just think The Crazy Ones has to pick up in the ratings to survive. I have really bad feeling for CBS Monday comedies after HIMYM ends. 2 Broke Girls plummeted in ratings since its first season where it would get great ratings. Everybody was talking about it being the next big hit for CBS. But now its middling even after getting HIMYM as lead in. Clearly its getting renewed for 4th season but i am not sure how will it go being the show that starts the 8 PM hour.
ReplyDeleteThe problem with NBC Thursdays is just hard to watch. And with American Idol being a bigger competition then X factor i am really scared for the NBC comedies. And the fact that even the CW out-rates them on some Thursdays cant be good. At their last airing Parks and Recreation got A18-34: 0.9/3; W18-34: 0.9/3. And i dont think that is good enough for them. Community on their last airing scored an 1.6 in adults 18-34 and was above Idol in M18-34 demo (Idol got a 1.1 and Community 1.4). If Community could repeat those ratings i think that would be good for NBC.
Thanks Omabin for the analysis! I hope that we Parks fans get a good news very soon. Very rare a very smart comedy like that ever exists. I might get hated for saying this, I even tried watching some TBBT episodes but they didn't make me laugh as much as Parks episodes. So, crossing my fingers here.
ReplyDeleteHey there. Thanks for stopping by. I don't think networks really renew shows based on the star power if the ratings aren't there (if anything, it would be a reason not to, because salaries are likely higher). If a show with a very marketable star hasn't worked in the first year, there is no reason to expect that marketable star would suddenly be able to bring in the ratings in the second year. I do think there is a chance both are back but not because of that and I wouldn't even think there is a big chance of both coming back. If I had to guess, I would say Mom and Two and a Half Men come back and TCO and TAHM are goners, but that's a very long shot guess and could change very very easily.
ReplyDeleteOh thank you so much ;) So kind of you!
ReplyDeleteHey there! Thank you for reading and stopping by and thanks a lot for those kind words, I am glad you enjoy reading them! I have never watched the show, so I really have no opinion there I am afraid. I am sorry that your show has to go!
ReplyDeleteHey there. Thanks for commenting and stopping by. Well, I certainly understand the argument but I have a hard time imagining that NBC will need both of them for sparkle. I think the most likely situation in which both come back is NBC going with a surrender hour on Thursday again at 8pm and plugging either both of them there or just one (with the other held for midseason, like this year) but I am just not sure if NBC will do a surrender hour again. We'll see. As for Community's syndication deal, I have to investigate, I am not aware of the numbers right now, are they public? I do think Community could be in decent shape by season's end between decentish ratings for NBC disaster standards, syndication and 18-34 strenght but that may not be enough depending on what NBC does with their comedy slate.
ReplyDeleteHey there. Thanks for reading and stopping by ;) That's a great position to be in I would say eheh. I also don't watch any of the shows I've placed on Tier 4 or 5 on this specific article, but I do watch and love The Crazy Ones which is a bubble show unfortunately.
ReplyDeleteHey @CrimTV , pleasure to have you stopping by and commenting, thanks for taking the time!
ReplyDeleteI don't think the repeats mean anything to be honest. I would actually say that the series that is placed away from Big Bang is the one they have the most faith in as it is the one that they expect to be able to do a better job on its own. It's like ABC. Do you think they were more confident in something like The Goldergs succeeding on their own or something like Back in the Game? Really, I think Mom could really be renewed over The Crazy Ones. I didn't guess on the article because it could change very easily but if I had to guess, that would be it. One very important argument is that Monday will already have a hole and it's a night hard to launch new stuff (no anchors, competing against the voice), whereas on Thursday it's very easy to launch something out of the very mighty big bang that boosts the entire night. The Two and a Half Men move that you propose I really don't see happening. I can't imagine CBS moving the show 3 seasons in a row and besides, the show is already imploding facing Grey's Anatomy and... flops everywhere else (Michael J.Fox and Glee); how do you imagine it could fare facing The Voice+Sleepy Hollow+Dancing? It's at the very least 1,5 points higher competition! On top of this, I really don't think it's a safe thing that they will keep the 4 hours; I think it's still a yes, but it's borderline.
At this moment, if I had to guess, I would say that they are more likely to go with:
Monday: 2 Broke Girls, New Comedy, Mike and Molly, Mom
Tuesday: Big Bang, New Comedy, Two and a Half Men, New Comedy
Thank you for stopping by and for the kind words, I am glad you enjoyed it. I do love some TBBT!
ReplyDeleteHey there. Thanks for stopping by and thanks for that great insightful comedy.
ReplyDeleteRegarding CBS comedies, I agree with basically everything you've said. I am not sure on The Millers though, I really have a hard time imagining it could pull acceptable ratings on its own, I think it would really crash, that 2.1 after TBBT repeat was a terrible terrible number, I am not sure why it gets so much slack everywhere. But other than that I agree that The Crazy Ones is the least likely to be renewed right now and also that I don't imagine them cancelling both Mom and Two and a Half Men on the same season, at all. I would actually think it's more likely they can both TCO and The Millers before coming close to Two and Half Men and Mom, but we shall see. It could change so quickly, which is why I didn't venture into predictions. Moreover, I am not even certain on that 4th comedy hour as I've said.
As for NBC, I absolutely agree that Community would come back with those ratings, but the likelihood of it keeping the same ratings as last year is not a good one. I do think it's possible it ends the year as NBC's highest rated comedy sans About a Boy which really would be something. Then again, Parks should also improve once moved to 8h30.
Hey there. Thanks a lot for stopping by and taking the time to comment, I am glad you enjoyed it. As for Parks, I have never watched an episode, so I really cannot comment on it - I do have plans to do it one of these days. Regarding TBBT, it's one of my favorite comedies ,but I respect the fact that you don't like it, no problem! Not sure why you would get hate since you were respectful in saying it and all, so there is nothing wrong with not liking a show ;)
ReplyDeleteThe thing is i'm quite sure Community will do better than all of those shows with more than 100 episodes for syndication.
ReplyDeleteThis is the second year in a row in which all NBC's comedies failed big time... And they can't put all new shows. What if the new roster does even worse? They need something sure, something steady... But what's better? a brand new Show pulling 1.0s(Or a show in it's second season pulling 0.7s) or a show in it's fifth Season that can put the same ratings, ONE THEY CAN MAKE MONEY OUT OF SYNDICATION?
They will renew Community for another 13 episodes and see if their new comedies fail... If one do fail, they have something steady to put in there...
For some reason this two years where quite bad for new shows(of all networks)... I guess people already watch too much tv, they kind of don't need new shows.
Thanks for the interesting and insightful analysis! As a big fan of Parks and Rec, the ratings drop this season has been painful to witness, so I hope they rebound in the second half of the season. I think there were a few things hurting them in the fall: direct head-to-head competition with TBBT, NFL Thursdays (if I recall correctly, Parks saw a ratings increase last January once football was over), and the fact - at least IMO - that NBC's Thursday lineup was a jumbled mess. Parks always did well, at least by NBC standards, when paired with shows like The Office, Community and 30 Rock. Having a workplace comedy lead off a night of family shows made no sense whatsoever. Though I haven't seen any stats on this, I wouldn't be surprised if more people chose to just catch up later via On Demand or Hulu since there was very little reason to tune into the night as a whole. Now that it's paired with Community again and football is over, I hope there's an uptick in the ratings.
ReplyDeleteI also agree with everyone who's said you should give Parks a try! Just keep in mind that the first season, which is only 6 episodes, is pretty terrible and not really very representative of what the series becomes. I absolutely hated it when it first debuted and dismissed it as an inferior clone of The Office, but then I gave it another try in season 3 after hearing really good things. I've since caught up on all the old episodes and it's become my favorite comedy on broadcast TV.
Hey there. Thank you a lot for taking the time to read and to leave such an extended comment ;) Regarding Parks' ratings, I have to a agree that there are a lot of reasons to be more optimistic about Spring ratings. I've mentioned it in the article, and I agree with all the reasons you've mentioned. I think the paring with Community and moving to 8h30 will definitely help. That's why I never understood why its fans were complaining when NBC basically took it off the air when they axed Welcome to the Family (excluding for two more weeks in which they doubled it up I think), because it meant that more episodes were saved to air in better circumstances, hence better overall ratings. I think there is reason to remain hopeful.
ReplyDeleteRegarding my own viewing, you have no idea how good it is to hear you say that the first season is terrible. I gave it a try a few days ago after writing this article and seeing what everyone else was saying about it and I've watched the first 3 episodes and it was just "meh" for me, I didn't find it special at all. But if you say that's how even hardcore fans of the show feel, then I will give it another try one of these days and see what happens moving forward! Is Season 2 already good or does it start being good only on Season 3?
Thanks for responding! Season 1 of Parks is like one long pilot, with the writers trying to figure out what worked. You mentioned that you liked New Girl. I had some issues with early New Girl episodes - Jess was a little too quirky and annoying, everyone else seemed to be laughing at her instead of with her - but then they found the right balance and tone. Something similar happened with Parks. In season 1, the writers unintentionally made Leslie seem weird, crazy, delusional, and incompetent - basically a female Michael Scott from The Office. So they toned that down, showed she actually is very smart, capable and competent, and focused on her enthusiasm and love for government and small towns. At the same time, they developed the other characters more fully and kind of changed the way they reacted to Leslie. That became the new foundation and they built on that.
ReplyDeleteOne thing about Parks is that it's very character-driven. The more you watch and the better you know the characters, the more you appreciate it. The same is true of the show's setting - the town of Pawnee. The town is full of very strange, quirky people who recur at various times throughout the series. Once you know the main characters and the recurring ones and have seen enough episodes, you'll notice there are tons of callbacks that would go right over the head of a new viewer. This is the kind of show that's hard to pop into every now and then. You really do need to watch every episode to fully appreciate it.
Opinions may differ on when the show became good. I thought season 1, episode 6 (Rock Show) was actually pretty good because it's the first one to more closely match the tone of later episodes. I found season 2 to be very good, with the second half of the season stronger than the first. Season 3 is great IMO - possibly the strongest, most consistent season of any comedy I've watched in recent years.
Thank you for that elaborate response! I will resume watching as soon as I have the time then, for sure ;) And what you've mentioned about it becoming more enjoyable as time goes by... I can definitely relate with that! That's the way it is with me with almost any comedy. It's very rare for me to enjoy a comedy right away. That's why I am so surprised with how much in love I am with The Crazy Ones and B99 this year (and even B99, it took me like 5 episodes to really get into the groove of it). I think it takes time because not only it requires me to care for the characters to truly enjoy it but also because it takes time for you to get used to that particular humor. Even my beloved Community, I don't think I would laugh out loud from seeing one of my favorite episodes right now had I never watched the show before, it just doesn't work. So yeah, I will see what's coming from Parks ;)
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