Today I finish looking at the drama situation from all 5 broadcast networks. Because FOX only has 2 dramas with undecided situations currently airing, I’ve decided to do both FOX and NBC dramas on the same post.FOX currently airs 4 dramas airing which are averaging a 1.90 in most recent airings. However, because both Glee and Sleepy Hollow have already been renewed, there are only two shows worth it for me to look at. Here's the tiers in which each of them fall into, taking into account its relative ratings, syndication and number of episodes (note: relative order within each tier is random):
Tier 2:
- Bones
Syndication: Yes
Production Company: FOX
Ratings Average: 1.90 (100%, 110% of all scripted offerings)
After years threatening to do it, FOX finally went ahead and moved Bones to Fridays. I think it is up for discussion whether or not it was the right move for FOX (it certainly wasn't for Bones, but remember that FOX's goal is to maximize its overall ratings, not those of a particular program). My personal opinion is that it did make sense, especially assuming that the second week on Friday is the level at which the show will settle. I think Bones will be just fine. Its ratings level is perfectly acceptable, it’s probably the best performer FOX has ever gotten on Fridays and I am fairly certain it brings them a lot of syndication money. The last mention I could find was of a TNT syndication deal of 2008 that gives FOX $450,000 per episode but I am fairly confident that other deals were put in place afterwards or that this one was revised upwards as Bones aged - the benefit is certainly higher than this value indicates. The only reason I am keeping the show in Tier 2 is that the costs for the show sure have been increasing throughout the years and there is a small chance they are now too large for a deal too be workable with its stars. However, I am not confident on that happening at all - there seems to be no indicator of such thing. Therefore, I am still going by the book here and saying that great ratings (100%!), especially in a slot where they have little else to air, plus good syndication money make the show a very likely bet for renewal.
Tier 3:
- Almost Human
Syndication: No
Production Company: Not Fox
Ratings Average: 2.00 (105%, 120% of all scripted offerings)
Almost Human is a very new show and very new shows have to significantly overperform or underperform for me to do more than put them squarely on the bubble. In its 2 episodes aired in its timeslot, Almost Human did neither, so to the bubble it goes. Let's look at facts. No matter how badly you want to spin the 1.90 it pulled last week, that's still 100% of FOX's drama average, 110% of its overall scripted average and probably even more of its overall average (scripted+unscripted). That's a renewal anyway you look at it, no matter how much you dislike the absolute number. What's the problem then? Well, the problem is that it's only the second episode on the regular timeslot, which means the show can continue to drop, faster than the overall network, meaning its relative rating could drop a lot. If that happens, then the show can and will be cancelled. What could the show have in its favour? It will be airing for one month without the voice to compete against and that's a great chance to build momentum and catch an audience. At the same time, it could also benefit a bit from the pairing with the final run of Sleepy Hollow and the initial run of the Following. Another point in its favour is The X-Factor continued decline. Despite rumours that the show will be back, there is still a decent chance it will be cancellled and this could free up space that bubble shows like Almost Human could certainly use. What could work against it? Basically, the fat that we still don't know where it will settle. It's all about a trend here and I really think the January ratings will be very important here. At the end of the day, this really needs more information for me to go on, so I have to stick with a bubble show until further evidence comes in.
Let's now talk about NBC. NBC currently has 7 dramas airing, averaging about a 1.70 in most recent airings. There is one show in which I thought the placement in tiers was difficult - all the others were very straightforward. Here's a look (as always, the order within each tier is random):
Tier 1:
- The Blacklist
Syndication: No
Production Company: Not NBC
Ratings Average: 3.00 (175%)
The Blacklist is, without a question, one of the biggest hits of the season. While I am certain its ratings would be far lower were it not to follow the voice (for instance, last week, The Voice did a 4.3 in the last minute of airing, which I am sure inflated the blacklist), it is still remarkable how well it is doing. The show had a very minimal decline from the premiere and it appears to have stabilized at a level that is outstanding for a drama on any broadcast, especially at NBC. There is absolutely no question that the show will be back. In most circles, there is also little doubt that the show is doing too well not to be moved. And I personally agree. The Blacklist has probably gotten as much Voice-induced sampling as it will ever get and it should now depart to another land, leaving the spot for a new promising show to take advantage of it. Where to? Basically everything is a fair game. I see little upside of a Tuesday move but there are good arguments to be made both for Wednesday and Thursday. I am convinced that NBC should and will go for one of these. Which one is better is kind of a personal preference and it depends a bit on which other pieces they have to work with. I will get back to this later in the season. Regardless of where it is moved, the fact stands that The Blacklist is a certain renewal for NBC!
- Grimm
Syndication: Yes
Production Company: NBC
Ratings Average: 1.90 (110%)
Grimm is one of those third year shows which is in the perfect situation for renewal. It has ratings that are more than enough for renewal anyway we look at it (110%!!) and it is one season away from syndication. It is also a show that, due to its procedural nature, should be able to score a decent enough syndication deal, which only adds to this later argument. For some reason, some people have been looking at its ratings this year as if hey were disappointing, which I find very odd: out of the 43 returning shows that have aired episodes this far, Grimm is the 14th healthiest year to year, and that's comparing Friday airings with when the show was airing on Mondays at the end of the summer! It's doing perfectly fine, I don't understand where those comments are coming from! I can't see any scenario in which the show is not renewed because it really has the best of two worlds in outstanding ratings and great syndication value and proximity in terms of number of episodes! It is a lock for renewal!
- Chicago Fire
Syndication: No
Production Company: NBC
Ratings Average: 2.10 (125%)
After a surprisingly very successful first season, NBC rewarded Chicago Fire with a post-the voice move and a spin-off of its own. The success of the move post-the-voice is up to debate. I do think that big lead-ins don't offer a significant long term advantage to established shows and that also includes sophmores (see also Suburgatory), which is why Chicago Fire is performing at a level only slightly better than that what was doing last year and not blowing up through the roof as some people were expecting. I think it was still a solid move because it ensures that there is no sophmore slump here and it widens a bit more its sampling, but I also don't see any advantage of letting the pair roll long term if they have something better to put here - their midseason idea seems to agree with me. Regardless, in terms of survival, the show is another absolutely sure thing to come back. NBC is clearly invested in the show and, at 125% ratings level, rightfully so! The show is bound to decrease a bit midseason when the voice is no longer its leadin but I would be surprised if the drops are very severe - it should still settle at a perfectly acceptable ratings level! Besides, it's a Dick Wolf show doing well, which means tere are tones of syndication potential to take advantage of! It's a lock for renewal!
Tier 2:
- Law and Order: SVU
Syndication:Yes
Production Company: NBC
Ratings Average: 1.50 (90%)
SVU is the oldest drama currently airing on broadcast TV and it is certainly amazing how it is still pulling respectable ratings in the order of the 90%. The real story about this show's renewal, however, is not about its ratings, but about its syndication deals. Indeed, while the ratings are still respectable (90%), the show is a syndication machine which I am sure makes the show extremely profitable. There is surprisingly lack of information about this on the Internet. I found information about a deal with USA for $1,300,000 per episode, but this is from 2001 and I am sure there have been upgrades to the deal recently, considering how well its syndication reruns do. I think that as long as the show keeps performing at a respectable ratings level, which it is doing, the syndication revenues will continue to be enough to save it. I am keeping it at Tier 2 only because there is a chance that, at some point, the costs will have increased so much that not even huge syndication revenues can help the show, but I am not inclined to believe it it the case yet and I still think the show is absolutely likely to be renewed!
Tier 3:
- Dracula
Syndication: No
Production Company: NBC (Cheap International Co-Production)
Ratings Average: 1.10 (65%)
I said it before that there was one show whose placement I felt really unsure about and that was Dracula. In any other industry website, you will find Dracula listed as a cancellation. While I can certainly understand why, I've decided to stick with the safer bubble placement. Let's look at the facts: the show is performing at 65% of NBC's drama average, even with my 25% Friday Factor taken into account. That's bad and that's a certain cancellation for a freshman show in almost all occasions. However, the show is also an international co-production, which makes it allegedly very cheap for NBC. How cheap? Well, that's where it gets tricky because we have no way of knowing. Personally, I keep coming back to one other case which prevents me from putting it on the cancellation prediction side: Hannibal! Hannibal was also a cheap international co-production and, last year, the show was renewed at a not so different 70% rating average (considering only the in-season airings). People will argue that critical acclaim is vastly different; while true, that has no bearing on a show's profitability, hence on its renewal/ cancellation prospects. Another similarity is that both shows have little opportunity costs (i.e. lost profit from the second best alternative NBC could air in their place), as Hannibal was aired partially as summer show and Dracula is stuck in the Friday at 10pm slot essentially replacing repeats (last year, they had Dateline here but repeats at 8, so Dracula effectively replaces repeats). I am still not very confident on this situation, if only because it also involves a Friday factor and also because there is still a 5% difference between both that could get even bigger. I believe the Hannibal renewal came down to the wire and so, it could easily go the other way around for the similar, yet a tiny bit worse Dracula. But it is also not entirely impossible that it goes the same way Hannibal did and NBC keeps using it as filler for Fridays at 10pm if the costs really are very low. If forced to chose, I would go with cancellation. But because of the Hannibal precedent, I will still say it is on the bubble!
The other two bubble shows that NBC has are shows which, in my opinion, have their situation dependent from one another. As such, I will make a short introduction of each and then address their fates together:
- Parenthood
Syndication:No deal yet, but it has enough episodes to do so, so one deal is bound to come sooner or later
Production Company: NBC
Ratings Average: 1.20 (70%)
In a move that I've strongly advocated for last season, NBC moved Parenthood to Thursday this year and the show saw its ratings take a huge tumble. I could go in detail about why was it the right move for NBC, but that would take way too much space here and I think would go besides the point - the main idea is that, as FOX with Bones, the goal of a network is to maximize the overall ratings, not a show's specific ratings. I will probably do it on the future in a separate post. Regardless of how we look at the move though, the show is now performing at 70% of NBC's ratings level and, having already enough episodes for syndication, that's pure bubble territory.
- Revolution
Syndication:No
Production Company: Not NBC
Ratings Average: 1.40 (80%)
As fellow bubble show Parenthood, Revolution has also been moved to an unarguably harder timeslot than it was last year, therefore presenting significant ratings erosion as a result. I will note, for what it's worth, that the 1.4 level at which the show has established itself, isn't that much different from the 1.8-1.9 level it was late last spring, which only goes to show the point I was making with Chicago Fire and The Blacklist, which is that after a while, the lead-in effect is relatively small and not as large as most people think. Regardless, the show is also performing at a level, 80%, which puts it squarely on the bubble. Most likely, its future will therefore depend on how the NBC bubble shapes up (more on that in a bit). There is, however, one another alternative for the show though, which wouldn't make it contingent on the whole "bubble" situation, which would be a move to Friday. I am not entirely sure how financially feasible this would be though, so I have to hold judgment on that for the time being and simply leave it as yet another possibility. For now, the 80% ratings level has to make it a bubble show!
What to make of the situation of these two shows then? Basically, I think it comes down to two questions:
- is there space to keep both on the schedule? This is a complicated question because it's NBC we're talking about here and there are a lot of variables here!. Sticking with the Monday-Thursday schedule only, they have 12 hours to fill there. The Voice (x3), The Blacklist, SVU, Chicago Fire, 2 New Dramas, 1 Comedy Hour are all sure things and these amount to 9 hours. There are 3 other hours to fill. What could go on these hours? Plenty of options: a midseason drama (Chicago PD most likely) could succeed, Parenthood could be renewed, Revolution could be renewed, The Biggest Looser could take a fall spot again, NBC could go with 2 hours of comedy instead of 1 or NBC could go with 3 new dramas Monday-Thursday instead of 2 Which of these will happen, that's the million dollar question. I have a hard time imagining that they go just with 1 hour of comedy. I thin they will insist on having 2 hours, even if one of them consists of final seasons of Community and Parks and Recreation. Regarding The Biggest Looser, unless The Sing Off does a wonderful job as voice filler this year, I think they will need TBL back in January and February to cover for the voice absence as they did last year (this year, they had the Olympics, so they didn't need that). So, assuming that these two hypothesis that I have do come true, that would leave Parenthood, Chicago PD, Revolution and a 3rd new drama battling it out for the 2 remaining hours. Could Parenthood and Revolution both get a renewal? Yes, but I am not ready to predict that yet - I will at least wait for Chicgo PD's numbers! However, I don't think it's likely that NBC can do away with both - too much new property on the fall schedule! Therefore, I am sticking with a "one or the other" prediction for the time being, even though I can revise this later in the season! (Again, this excludes the idea that Revolution could move to Fridays. If that happens, then this doesn't hold).
- which show would be saved in case there is room only for one? I truly think this is a pure tossup here, as there are different factors going one way or the other! A) Revolution has a small advantage in Live+SD 18-49 numbers. I don't, however, expect this tiny difference to be the deciding factor (it is so small that it could literally be nule in C3 for instance). Still, it's worth noting that it's been there systematically B) Neither show does remotely well in 18-34, but from what I've seen, I think Parenthood usually does a tiny better. C) Parethood is owned by NBC but Revolution isn't. D) Parenthood will get into its 6h season, which means it's probably time for contract renegotiation, meaning costs will likely shoot up (see Private Practice, Brothers and Sisters, etc.). I expect a 6th season of Parenthood to be more expensive than a 3rd season of Revolution E) Parenthood could conceivably score a decent syndication deal that makes it more profitable than Revolution. As you can see, I really do think there are different factor pushing one way or the other. Both have to remain bubble shows for the time being!
Almost Human – To be determined
Bones– To be renewed
Chicago Fire – To be renewed
Dracula – To be determined
Grimm– To be renewed
Law and Order: SVU – To be renewed
Parenthood– To be determined
Revolution – To be determined
The Blacklist – To be renewed
Thanks for reading!
Tracking Table
Previous Articles:
State of CW Dramas
State of CBS Dramas
State of ABC Dramas
ABC Sundays
Renewals and Cancellations Decisions and TV Numbers 101 [FAQ]
Happy Chicago Fire will be back and here hoping Almost Human is renewed. One of the best new shows, and soooo funny.
ReplyDeleteI'm super excited to see where Chicago Fire goes this season, I feel like they are doing a better job this season than they were last! Maybe a little because they are introducing the LEAD (ie, Taylor Kinney and Jesse Spencer- that's what I mean by lead) cast, and letting us in on how their circle works for the most part! :)
ReplyDeleteI seriously love Chicago Fire- great show isn't it?
ReplyDeleteIsn't Dracula a 10-episode series?
ReplyDeleteas usual, awesome article
ReplyDeleteIt is but just because it is a limited series of 10 episodes, doesn't mean it can't be renewed. See 'Sleepy Hollow' for more details.
ReplyDeleteIt is, but just because it is a 10-episode series doesn't mean that it can't be renewed. Sleepy Hollow was also a 13-episode series but FOX renewed for a second season! Presumably, another 13 episode series.
ReplyDelete"SVU is the oldest show currently airing on broadcast TV"
ReplyDeleteNo, it isn't...
Thanks for reading! Yep, no worries about Chicago Fire. I am also a fan of Almost Human, so I hope it can pull through!
ReplyDeleteThanks for reading, glad that your show is safe!
ReplyDeleteThanks for reading! As for your question, Andrew43 has already answered it and I agree with what he said!
ReplyDeleteThank you for reading and for the very kind words, as usual!
ReplyDeleteIt doesn't matter if OUAT in Wonderland does well or not because it is intended to be only for one season, you know like the American Horror Story format right? The next one will be OUAT, I don't know, in Neverland? Or am I wrong?
ReplyDeleteThanks a lot for reading and for the kind words! Glad you enjoyed it. As for SVU, maybe I am missing something, but which show is the oldest one then?
ReplyDeleteHey. Thanks for reading. Well, that was the original plan I believe, to have it run like American Horror Story with different stories each year. However, that would still require it to be renewed (same way as if American Horror Story: Asylum crashed, there would be no American Horror Story: Coven). So it does matter if it does well or not. The show is doing terribly, so it will be cancelled and there will be no season 2 I am afraid!
ReplyDeleteExactly!
ReplyDeleteNo it wasn't. FOX never promoted it as a limited series.
ReplyDeleteThe Simpsons?
ReplyDeletewww.thesimpsons.com :)
ReplyDeleteHowever, you could perhaps rewrite it to the oldest drama* show currently on the air.
I posted literally a second after you, Babar, hahaha :) But I'm glad you noticed it too!
ReplyDeleteI think we have had this argument before considering TBL's move.
ReplyDeleteI think NBC should move TBL to 9 p.m. on Wednesdays and sliding SVU to the 10 p.m. Considering how long it has been on the air, it should carry all of its audience to the 10 p.m. And, I may be wrong, but isn't this rather a dim spot for NBC? It would strength the night. Only have to work with Revolution to make Wednesdays work.
Limited series is basically code for: "If it tanks, oh well, at least we can say that it aired for the entirety of it's length and fans won't be upset because there was never a story to be told after those episodes."
ReplyDeleteBut is clear as day that if the series fared well enough, that it'd get a renewal, limited series status standing or not.
So happy to hear Law & Order SVU and 'absolutely likely to be renewed' in the same post. I love this show so darn much I'd be lost without it.
ReplyDeleteAnd I hope they keep Almost Human - action with some comic relief. I like it.
Thanks for the updates! Great for Chicago Fire! It's really been phenomenal this season.
ReplyDeleteIn this case, I am wrong then. I guess Wonderland does need to have good rating before there is a succeeding story. BTW, I always enjoy your article. It makes me feel hopeful to shows I like like Almost Human and Chicago Fire.
ReplyDeleteThe only show I even recognize on this list is SVU. I must have fallen behind!
ReplyDeleteI am not sure if it is a code 100% or not. Some series like Hannibal, The Following, Wonderland, Hostages or Sleepy Hollow seem to be genuinely made for shorter seasons.
ReplyDeleteYou are right, I was thinking in terms of dramas only. Silly me. It's been corrected.
ReplyDeleteYep, you're totally right, silly me! I was thinking in terms of drama! It's been corrected ;) Thank you!
ReplyDeleteYeah, we've hard this conversation already. I think I am getting more open to the Thursday idea now. I think both have advantages and disadvantages and basically, as I say on the text, it's just a matter of what else NBC has to work with. Using TBL and SVU works both on Wednesdays and on Thursdays, so the point is kind of mute, isn't it? I want to see how well does Chicago PD does and how Parenthood and Revolution hold come spring before recommending one way or the other right now.
ReplyDeleteThanks for reading, I am glad you liked it. I also hope Almost Human makes it, love the show!
ReplyDeleteYou're welcome! Thank YOU for reading and commenting ;)
ReplyDeleteYes, but that doesn't mean they won't get renewed. Sure, we won't see the full 22 episodes per season as most shows on broadcast do, but it doesn't mean that they can't get renewed.
ReplyDeleteThank you, I am very glad that you enjoy the articles!
ReplyDeleteAhah lots of new shows all the time! Thanks for reading!
ReplyDeleteThank you, as always! From the bubble shows, I'm rooting for Almost Human and Revolution to be renewed. Really enjoying both this season. We'll see.
ReplyDeleteThanks for the analysis, as always, very good! I'm worried about Dracula... It's just me or every year NBC isn't able to find a good drama (except for The Blacklist which I love!)? Maybe it's the lack of promotion? What do you think?
ReplyDeleteAnd that's exactly why people were so surprised to see a renewal instead of a back-order, I guess.
ReplyDeleteI disagree strongly. Any series - limited or not - is code for that. They never order additional episodes just for story's sakes (that's why so many shows end in cliffhangers, unfortunately). Limited is just a fancy word for shorter season, it doesn't imply anything regarding additional seasons. That's what the word "miniseries" is for.
ReplyDeleteSame with Under the Dome, which aired specifically as a summer show by combining the fact that 10/13 episodes is appropriate for summer shows and that the creative team wanted 13 instead of the regular 24-episode order,
ReplyDeleteREALLY enjoyed your article again! I can't think of a better way to start my week than to read your articles :) I'm really hoping for Revolution to be renewed. Parenthood is okay, but Revolution is so much better, and there's so much more to be done with this show. Even if they move it to Fridays, that's okay with me. As long as they keep making episodes :)
ReplyDeleteI do hope Almost Human and Revolution get renewed.Revolution is so good this season,it really came into its own..maybe a little too late..? And i'm loving Kennex and Dorian's relationship,it would be a shame if it didn't continue.
ReplyDeleteThanks for writing about all the networks,its been a good read!
Thank you for this awesome article! I agree about Bones, they'll renew it. I mean they are doing good on Fridays so far. I'm actually more worried about Almost Human tbh. It's their second week and they already saw below 2s.. It's sad 'cause it's a really good show hope more people tune in. (There's no DWTS till next season so maybe that could be a good thing for them? The audience is not the same but still.. I'm just hoping.)
ReplyDeleteI hope they give Revolution one more year! -And of course I want Almost Human to be able to thrive. I'm kind of curious about NBC and their mid-season show approach where they now are trying to have 13 episode shows. As you know, I worry for Believe if they don't move it from it's alleged time slot, which I think is a shame. I really liked the Pilot!. Hannibal I hope also has a better year...but I wonder if they could make Revolution a 13 episode mid-season show if they had too???
ReplyDeleteI know that due to syndication numbers a renewal for a season three almost guarantees a season four as well. Not always, there have been a few surprises here and there , I think Revenge may go down to the wire on this. Does this factor into the renewal for Revolution? NBC doesn't produce it so syndication doesn't mean much from their POV, but I also know that production companies will offer a show at a really reduced licensing fee in order to hit the 88 episodes needed for syndication. I just wonder if you think the fact that Revolution will be on track for possible syndication will affect its prospects for renewal.
ReplyDeleteThank YOU, for reading and taking the time to comment as well! I am also rooting for Almost Human and Revolution. Revolution was just okay for me last year, but I could take it or leave it for the most part. This year it has turned into must see for me, it's one of my favorite TV hours of the week, so I really hope it makes it! As for The Blacklist, it is indeed very impressive yes. This year has been very kind for dramas so far. Sleepy Hollow, Agents of Shield, The Originals and The Blacklist are all big hits for their respective networks!
ReplyDeleteThank you for reading and for the kind words. Well, there was a time in which NBC was unable to have dramas hitting but in the last three years they've actually been doing ok with dramas. They found Grimm 2 years ago which has turned into a Friday staple and a solid utility player, they found Chicago Fire last year which defied the odds and which is likely going to be their long term procedural brand moving forward and they also found, to a much smaller extent of success, Revolution. This year, The Blacklist is a bonfire hit and it is not unfeasible that Chicago PD hits. I think their drama state is actually ok, it's their comedy state that has issues!
ReplyDeleteOh thanks a lot for the kind words yet again, it's really kind of you! I agree with you, Revolution is by far the bubble show for which I suffer the most. I really want it renewed, I will be devastated if it's a goner! I have nothing against Parenthood and it was actually one of those shows that I always rooted for even though I never watched, but I really want Revolution to win that battle! I also wouldn't care for a Friday move, as long as it was renewed!
ReplyDeleteThank YOU for taking the time to read and comment ;) I do agree with you a lot, I am hoping that Almost Human and Revolution make it! Almost Human has been growing on me every single episode so far and Revolution absolutely transformed itself from an enjoyable, yet passable hour of TV which I could take or leave last year, to one of my favorite TV hours of the week and must see! I hope it is able to pull through!
ReplyDeleteThank you for reading and for the very kind words, I am glad you enjoyed it! I am with you, rooting for both Revolution and Almost Human! I think you are absolutely right and that Almost Human is in much more danger than Bones at the moment. I do think, as I've mentioned in the article, that there is a chance Almost Human gains momentum and increases in the ratings in January when the voice is gone. I think that helped The Following a lot last year to gain an audience. It just has to avoid falling too low until then!
ReplyDeleteThanks for reading and commenting ;) I really hope Revolution gets another season too, it's by far the bubble show that leaves me most uncomfortable, I will be gutted if it's a goner! I am also strongly rooting for Almost Human, which I have enjoyed more and more with each passed episode. As for NBC midseason, I don't know what they will do. I don't see where they will put Believe or Crisis in the midweek schedule. They had options but the moves they made for Thursday and Wednesday don't suggest so. I think they will move the voice to 8pm on tuesday and launch comedies at 9. Wednesdays will be Revolution/SVU/Chicago PD and Thursdays should remain the same except for Community at 8 and Parks at 8h30. I think the Sundays dramas are kind of doomed to be honest. Unless they make a scheduling change, which I don't see happening (even though I actually think it would be best to launch the dramas with no lead-in support Thursdays at 9 for instance then Sundays), I will be very surprised if any midseason drama not named Chicago PD makes it!
ReplyDeleteAs for your question, I don't see what financial incentive they would have for a 13 episode season of Revolution. I think they will stick with the 22 episode season in case it's renewed. But that's just my guess. As for Hannibal (I've started watching it this weekend by the way, I am currently on episode 5!), I think it will land on summer!
"Sleepy Hollow, Agents of Shield, The Originals and The Blacklist are all big hits for their respective networks!" I'm really glad about that since I'm enjoying them all, most of them even more than I expected.
ReplyDeleteAnd as for Revolution, same thing with me. Last year it was just kinda okay for me, nothing special, but this season is a huge improvement.
Also, thanks for responding to all the comments. I know, from experience, that it can be quite a commitment so I appreciate it even more ;)
Deadline has interesting new article about TV pilots:
ReplyDeleteIn it they talk about how on the new outlets for syndicated drama like Netflix, that the most popular shows are serialized now. Which might helps shows like Revolution.
Thanks for clearing this up concerning Grimm....I kept wondering if I was missing something, because the Ratings looked very good for me for NBC. Never mind that Grimm has a very dedicated Fanbase - the core people have followed the show to every airing spot.
ReplyDeleteWe're very alike, man! Awesome taste, that's for sure :) Let's just hope NBC is on our side too!
ReplyDeleteI hope you enjoy Hannibal. I am a novel fan and a film fan, but I honestly love Mad Mikkelson's portrayal of Hannibal more than Anthony Hopkins (which I didn't think was possible.) He just feels more in line with how I imagine certain time periods of the novels character. -But Bryan Fuller has been so generous with allusions and references to things pertaining to the cannon,--I wasn't expecting that! The only downfall, is that he will have to change the back story of Hannibal from "Hannibal Rising" somewhat, because he shifted things further in the future to make it more modern...
ReplyDeleteGreat read once again Omabin! I sound a little like a broken record, lol, but it's well deserved. :)
ReplyDeleteAlso, still holding out hope Almost Human stabilizes around this 1.9 or goes up. ;)
Love Revolution this season so really hoping that it holds steady against AI and gets a season 3!!!
ReplyDeleteYes, I agree, I wasn't saying the opposite. Just that sometimes it's not just an excuse for cancellation, but rather an actual model of airing, or else Sleepy Hollow for instance would have just add an episode extension.
ReplyDeleteYes, I agree with you on everything. I never expected to love these new shows as much as I do. The Originals in particular has been the biggest surprise of the season for me. Also, The Blacklist, it's just amazing and I didn't care that much for it from the trailer!
ReplyDeleteThank you for that kind remark! I try to do my best and this really is something that I enjoy doing anyway ;) Thank you for the appreciation!
Let's hope so ;)
ReplyDeleteYes, so far I am enjoying it. It reminds me of early seasons of Dexter. I do think it's a tad overrated around here maybe but I a still enjoying it a lot. Hugh Dancy is my favorite part of the show so far though, I just find Will Graham one of the most fascinating characters ever and his performance is mesmerizing. I kind of feel sad when we shift the focus to Hannibal lol. I will let you know more when I finish the season!
ReplyDeleteHello! Thanks for reading and commenting! Several points
ReplyDelete- Regarding Revenge, I wrote in detail about it before when I covered the ABC dramas! Take a look (http://www.spoilertv.com/2013/11/rating-analysis-state-of-abc-dramas.html) Long story short, I do believe syndication is more than enough to save it, because the show is still performing at a very decent rating for ABC, 75%-80%, so with the syndication addition, that's a sure renewal
- I don't think the prospect of syndication matters to Revolution. I would say that everything else equal it would have the edge over a freshman show, because it would be closer to syndication and because it would be less prone to continue to fall, but that's about it. Other than that, I think it's too soon to consider syndication in Revolution's case. Next year, if renewed, it will for sure be a major factor, but not this year IMO.
Thanks for the reference. It is indeed an interesting article. It looks like good news for our bubble dramas. However, I wouldn't believe that streaming services like Netflix are enough to help serialized shows. On the one hand, serialized shows will be preferred for those, but on the other hand, procedurals will be preferred by syndication. And I am fairly certain in the vast majority of the cases, syndication revenues will still trump streaming services revenues, so I am not inclined to give major weight to this. It certainly can't hurt, but I doubt it makes a meaningful difference!
ReplyDeleteThanks for reading and commenting! No, you are not missing anything. Grimm is one NBC's biggest successes of the last three years, a Friday staple and a major utility player. It has ratings more than enough for renewal and it is on track for syndication. It is in no danger whatsoever ;)
ReplyDeleteThank you a lot for those kind words! And, by all means, don't worry about sounding like a broken record ahah, I appreciate them ;)
ReplyDeleteI am also hopeful for Almost Human. I think it will fall a bit more these next two weeks (hope to be wrong), but the key will be if it is able to gain an audience in January away from the voice or not! Let's hope so!
Hey there! Thanks for reading and taking the time to comment! I am with you 100%, also loving Revolution and really hoping it can pull through and be renewed! I would feel better if they skipped January airings so it wouldn't go against the opening nights of AI, where it should still be very strong for modern standards, but let's hope it holds steady!
ReplyDeleteGood thing, too...the current season is sharping up the best so far, now that all players are shuffled to the right places.
ReplyDeleteOh, I have a question concerning Dracula: how do you know that the production is cheap? I mean, how "cheap" it really is also depends on how much money is spend on it...if it costs NBC just as much as usual and the co-production is mostly done to afford all the costumes and historical sets, then it doesn't make a difference if there are other people in the boat of not. And how do you know that the co-producers don't want to beg out because of the ratings?
ReplyDeleteHOW IS BATB on this list?!
ReplyDeleteI know way too many people who watch this and after the last episode, THIS SHOW IS NOT BEING CANCELLED.
I see your point--though from reading the article that seem to say the old ways of syndicate aren't as prevalent while the netfilixes, on demand and streaming sources are becoming more and more important. But yes, this one factor won't decide things but it can't hurt.
ReplyDeleteNo, Sleepy Hollow was always intended to be a limited series! http://www.deadline.com/2013/05/pilot-season-the-rise-of-limited-series/ Even in pilot season it was announced as such. Wonderland, Betrayal, Dracula, Crossbones, Hostages, Sleepy Hollow - all these were always intended to be limited series only. Add to that Hannibal and The Following from last season as well!
ReplyDeleteThat's it ;) It gets harder when I am busier (which is why I am answering just now by h way), but I still like to try to do it! As for the originals, there was a time in which I thought I wouldn't even watch the pilot. I love it nowadays, so glad I did watch it!
ReplyDeleteYeah, the article does suggest that streaming is now more relevant but I think it's misleading, I don't actually believe that syndication profits < streaming profits.
ReplyDeleteCarnival Films, which is a British television production company, is a coproducer and I think there are other international co-producers on board too. I don't know exactly how cheaper that makes the show, that's the whole point of it being on the bubble though. NBC has been trying to do these productions for a while now (The Firm, Hannibal, Dracula, Crossbones). Hannibal would have been cancelled last year had it not been for the fact that it was a cheap co-production. The "how cheap" factor was enough there! Will it be enough here? I don't know. I don't know if the "how cheap" factor is of the same magnitude here, not to mention the relative rating situation is also a tiny worse than it was for Hannibal last year. If it dips more, I will mark it as likely to be cancelled. Until then, I remain unconvinced that the profits that NBC is making from the ad revenues there are not sufficient to cover for the costs, which would be enough for NBC to stick with it most likely, since it's not like they are overflowing with other options for the low profile hour!
ReplyDeleteThank you for taking the time to read and comment! Glad you enjoyed it! As for Bones, it's like I've said: the ratings are still more than enough for renewal and the opportunity costs there is very low. I don't think it's inconceivable that the contract negotiations blow and the costs explode, but I think it's unlikely, the show is very likely to be renewed ;)
ReplyDeleteHey there. Thanks for reading and commenting. Well, the CW is not the focus of this article, check it out here: http://www.spoilertv.com/2013/11/rating-analysis-state-of-cw-dramas.html; I have a section specifically on Beauty and the Beast. Have it a go and let me know if you still have questions why the show is more likely to be canceled than renewed afterwards!
ReplyDeleteI agree syndication profits are more valuable--though I think the article is just saying streaming profits are becoming greater and more of a factor...even if still less than syndication. That it is starting to gain as more and more time goes by.
ReplyDeleteYes, I agree with that ;)
ReplyDeleteAh...thank you for clearing this up.
ReplyDeleteFox moved them to Friday and they are showing strong! It's the Best show on TV!!!!
ReplyDeleteBones should be a definite renewal for Fox since they are slowly building higher ratings !
Hope Almost Human and Dracula are renewed.
ReplyDeleteHey there. Thanks for stopping by. Bones is pulling the numbers I thought it would pull on Fridays back when the announcement was made last May. I predicted it to become a Friday champ and that's exactly what is doing. Truly amazing recovery, very very impressive. I won't however move it up to definite renewal due to the costs' issue. It's not inconceivable that FOX simply isn't willing to pay up as much as the actors want for a Friday show. I think it's a remote possibility though, most likely it will be back.
ReplyDeleteLast one - thank you for reading them all ;) I too am rooting for Almost Human. This week it was good, it didn't fall any further! Let's hope for the best! Dracula I've never watched it, but it also had a great rating last Friday bouncing from that 0.9 it was stuck at.
ReplyDeleteFox is the one that moved them! Maybe they should find ways to pull in more money for them!!! They deserve to be recognized for their fantastic talents! If Fox wants them they will find a way to raise more money for them...and they should!!!
ReplyDeleteYou're welcome. And I really get it. I love writing (both articles and comments) on the site and sharing my thoughts with others. It's nice to see people's perspectives or find someone who thinks in a similar way. Speaking of, The Originals is also the biggest surprise of the season for me. Never even expected to watch more than the pilot to be honest. ;)
ReplyDeleteBut Sleepy Hollow wasn't extended because of scheduling issues due to the Following's?
ReplyDeleteI think this is the first time I read that someone thinks Bones is likely to be renewed. Thank you for sharing a good reasoning why you think it is likely to do so! I have to admit I feel much more confident that it will be after having read your article.
ReplyDeleteThere has been a lot of worring about it being moved to the 'deadly' Friday time slot, but you view that Bones is the right show to accumulate decent ratings for FOX on a Friday night makes a possible season 10 of Bones look much brighter. After all, why should Fox cancel a good show, with decent & mostly consistent ratings, when they have nothing else doing good equally to fill that difficult time slot with...?