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CW and FOX Numbers are probably inflated due to football pre-emptions in some markets
Early Ratings Analysis
The analysis below is based on the early household numbers and are NOT the same as the numbers that will be posted in the above table later. (See the About section below)
For more information on the Nielsen Ratings see this
Wikipedia Entry.
NOTE: The opinions expressed here are NOT those of SpoilerTV but of the Author of this Article,
Marc Berman.
Metered Market Thursday Ratings
CBS Wins; ABC Tops from 9-11 p.m.
Thursday 11/21/13
Metered Market Results
Household
Rating/Share
CBS 7.0/12
ABC 5.2/ 9
Fox 3.5/ 6
NBC 2.3/ 4
CW 1.6/ 3
———-
-Percent Change from Year-Ago Evening – Thursday 11/22/12:
Note: The year-ago Thursday was Thanksgiving.
CW: +167, ABC: +93, CBS: +63, Fox: -37, NBC: -78
———-
-Winners:
“The Big Bang Theory” (CBS), “Grey’s Anatomy” (ABC), “Scandal” (ABC)
-Fading Fast:
“The X Factor” (Fox)
-Losers (excluding repeats):
“Once Upon a Time in Wonderland” (ABC), “Parks and Recreation” (NBC), “Sean Saves the World” (NBC), “The Michael J. Fox Show” (NBC), “Glee” (Fox), “Reign” (CW), “Parenthood” (NBC)
———-
-Ratings Breakdown:
Led by mega-hit “The Big Bang Theory,” CBS topped this third Thursday in November with an average 35 percent advantage over second-place ABC. But the Eye net has slipped to second from 9-11 p.m. in the overnights behind ABC’s compatible combination of veteran “Grey’s Anatomy” (6.3 rating/10 share) and “Scandal” (6.8/12) from 9-11 p.m. The Thanksgiving-themed episode of “The Big Bang Theory” opened with a hefty 11.7/19 at 8 p.m., followed by “The Millers” (#1: 7.3/12), which slipped by 38 percent out of “Big Bang,” “The Crazy Ones” (#2: 5.3/ 9), “Two and a Half Men” (#2: 5.6/ 9) and sophomore “Elementary” (#2: 6.0/10). While the 9-11 p.m. block on CBS is not a bust, “Person of Interest” was a stronger option in the Thursday 9 p.m. hour last season. And moving to Tuesday at 10 p.m. has cost it some viewers.
Earlier in the evening on ABC was soon-to-conclude “Once Upon a Time in Wonderland” at a distant third-place 2.5/ 4 at 8 p.m. Note to the networks: Never order a spin-off from a show that is already declining.
Over at Fox, fading “The X Factor” (#2: 4.1/ 7), which slipped by 47 percent from the 7.7/16 in the overnights on the year-ago evening, led into a weak (and distant third-place) 2.9/ 5 for “Glee” at 9 p.m. At this point, “Glee” is unlikely to benefit by moving back into the Tuesday 8 p.m. hour on Feb. 25. Like any high school-based shows, the shelf life is limited.
Elsewhere, NBC’s line-up of “Parks and Recreation” (two episodes: #4, avg. 2.2/ 4 from 8-9 p.m.), “Sean Saves the World” (#4: 2.2/ 4), “The Michael J. Fox Show” (#4: 2.0/ 3) and relocated “Parenthood” (#3: 2.7/ 5) remains a colossal bust. And the upcoming return of “Community” to the Thursday 8 p.m. half-hour on January 9th is unlikely to help. The CW, meanwhile, was on par from one week earlier with its combination of dramas “The Vampire Diaries” (#5: 1.8/ 3) and “Reign” (#5: 1.3/ 2). The expected hefty demo slippage for “Reign” at 9 p.m. keeps it in the “losers” listing.
Source: Nielsen Media Research
Source: Marc Berman@tvmediainsights
About the Daily Ratings
Each day (except Sunday) during the main TV Season we post the TV Ratings for the previous nights primetime shows for the major broadcast networks (ABC, CBS, CW, FOX, NBC). Cable Network ratings will be added to the
Ratings Database.
The first item that gets posted (normally around 2pm GMT) is the early overnight analysis based on the early household numbers (these are not the same as the Total Viewers and 18-49 Demo numbers that are posted later).
Next, if available, we will post the Top 25 Market 18-49 Ratings to give you a rough idea of the ratings to following.
Later on (normally between 4pm-5pm GMT) we post the official early overnight Total Viewers and 18-49 Demo numbers in the table above.
Finally, later in the evening (10pm-11pm GMT) or the following day, the final adjusted ratings numbers are released, these are then posted in the
Ratings Database. The Final Adjusted numbers are what we use for all our Renew/Cancellation Tables, Full Season Tables, Ratings Scorecards etc (see below). Friday's Final Adjusted Ratings are normally available on the following Monday.
If you are new to ratings or still confused, we recommend you read this excellent Ratings FAQ.
Don't forget to follow our Ratings Only Twitter Account for the latest Ratings News
Additional Ratings Resources
If you’re interested in Ratings/Renewals/Cancellations then we have a number of resources here at SpoilerTV that we recommend you check out.
Renew/Cancel
Our Cancellation/Renewal predictions for the current season.
Ratings Database
Historical Ratings Database for nearly all major US shows going back to their first episodes.
Full Season Tables
The current season full ratings tables for both Total Viewers and 18-49 Demos
Ratings Scorecard
See how all the shows stack up against each other in the Ratings Scorecard Table.
NBC should axe their Thursdays.
ReplyDeleteNBC Thursdays have me speechless every week. Also, go Greys/Scandal! I hope The Crazy Ones didn't fall also. That show needs to pick up ratings wise, I don't want it cancelled.
ReplyDeleteYAY Go Scandal!
ReplyDeleteElementary is up four-tenths in the overnights this week. Please, please, please let it rise in the demo. Man, 2.5 Men is an abysmal lead-in.
ReplyDelete'Never order a spin-off from a show that is already declining' - That comment really pisses me the hell off! And looses what tiny respect I had for him.
ReplyDeleteParenthood could get another final season of like only 10-13 episodes but its ratings are off about 30% from last year. However, unlike Revolution, despite having stable ratings but hitting series lows, NBC actually owns Parenthood while Warner Bros owns Revolution. If I was NBC, I would get rid of Revolution if I had to choose between renewing either Parenthood OR Revolution. Parks & Rec should come back bc of the other comedies flopping but its ratings are terrible. NBC better pray that Community does well or Thursdays are screwed BIG TIME!
ReplyDeleteI actually feel a little sad over the MJF numbers. I never anticipated it doing THIS poorly. That said, I tuned out after the first episode, because as much respect and love that I have for MJF, the show makes me uncomfortable. The writing isn't very funny, and the whole premise tries to snatch comedy from the jaws of a very real, somewhat sad situation. Not even the national treasure that is MJF (I know he's Canadian) can draw me into it again.
ReplyDeleteLast week Reign got 1.5/2 ? Or am i wrong. Today we probably cant expect 0.7 right?
ReplyDeleteI only watch the second episode and the comedy felt awkward to me.
ReplyDeleteI wonder what being #2 means for The X Factor in terms of demos, despite dropping 47% from last year and a bit in the HH ratings from Wednesday.
ReplyDeleteI loved the pilot of TMJF show and the 2nd episode but the 3rd episode was not very funny. I agree the writers have not executed the story well. The actors are good and Betsy Brandt from Breaking Bad and MJF have good chemistry. I never thought it would go this low as the show looked funny. I wouldn't be surprised to see this canceled.
ReplyDeleteTwo and a Half Men has over welcomed its stay. The only way it will get renewed is if Mom hits lows and/or if the other new comedies fall further.
ReplyDeleteA 1.3 is what TTP got yesterday, so possibly 0.6/0.7.
ReplyDeletei hear Parenthood has cast/contract issues and is increasingly more expensive to renew
ReplyDeleteHe's always making snide remarks to certain shows.
ReplyDeleteYeah. When you have people fleeing a 9pm comedy hour to come back for a modestly rated drama, that's a sign of trouble, IMO. No way should Elementary be outperforming 2.5 Men in households. I know it's not the demo, but I doubt CBS anticipated just how much 2.5 would decline.
ReplyDeleteI've heard about this too. Costs are preventing Parenthood from getting renewed. Craig T. Nelson from the underrated sitcom from the 80s, Coach, Lauren Graham from Gilmore Girls and the popular Ray Romano from Everybody loves Raymond are probably paid the most on the show.
ReplyDeleteBy the way, I watched #Elementary for the first time ever at 5am this morning, the first episode and it was very well-written. If it doesn't get a season 3, I'll be mad but I'm predicting it'll get renewed given that CBS owns the show and it gets promoted like crazy!
ReplyDeleteIt was a 1.4.
ReplyDeleteIt actually dropped a tenth from yesterday's HH, so I think it will get a 1.6 to 1.8.
ReplyDeleteHoping for a rise for both Scandal and Elementary. I can't wait to watch the latter later and of course Scandal was on fire. Sucks that I have to wait two weeks for a new episode. Damn you Thanksgiving :-)
ReplyDeletehe is actually right though Once Upon A Time was in decline when Once In Wonderland was picked up and it hasnt exactly been doing brilliantly this season.
ReplyDeleteI'm not good at guessing so I'm not even gonna try anymore. lol
ReplyDeleteMight be inflated.
ReplyDeleteyes unfortunately CW and Fox were also pre-empted in the 8pm hour.
ReplyDeleteYeah I watched the first three episodes and felt the same. I am however unconvinced that it could perform at an above 2.0 level if moved to 9h30. It did a 2.1 out of a 2.6 TBBT at 8h30 already. If you consider that TCO (assuming it would be its lead-in) is not performing at that mid 2 levels from TBBT repeat and that the 9h30 is fairly more competitive than the non-entity that is 8h30 (NBC doesn't exist in both hours, FOX is basically weak in both but ABC makes a major difference as it is +1.5 higher at 9pm than at 8pm), then it seems very doubtful that the millers could hold on to that 2.1 level. I am not even sure CBS should be interested in keeping an hour of comedies it doesn't own that are pulling 2.0/2.2s to be honest. Elementary for instance should probably be able to do the same there and they would benefit much more from that getting syndication revenues.
ReplyDeleteReally? I find that surprising but ok. Sucks that TVD could adjust down. Maybe it can pull the amazing feat of being steady? I remember once when it was preempted and it actually adjusted up. Anyway, if it's just 0.1 or so is still pretty awesome. Also, am I a bad person for keep wishing that The X Factor drops so that TVD an be the runner up in the hour?
ReplyDeleteYeah, because nothing seems to be working there.
ReplyDeleteNBC's Thursdays give me a little hope for Revolution. xD
ReplyDeleteStill wish The Crazy Ones had the post Big Bang Theory spot, they feel like a much better fit. :)
ReplyDeleteUnfortunately, this week's Revolution scored a mere 0.9 in 18-34s which is terrible news. Parenthood usually does better with that on a much tougher and later timeslot :S Unless Parenthood has contract negotiations or something coming up that make its renewal highly costly, I think it may have the edge over Revolution if the current relative ratings are kept. We shall see. Chicago PD failing could also help our cause. (I don't actively root for other shows to fail, I am just being realistic here)
ReplyDeleteI love both shows but I am not sure the type of humor is similar. I feel that TCO is very dislocated among all three other CBS comedies to be honest.
ReplyDeletestill will probably hit 1,1 or 1.2,so doesn't matter!!
ReplyDeleteYou have some good points.
ReplyDeleteHmm, did not know that. I don't follow the ratings beyond what I read here, but what you're telling me doesn't sound good.
ReplyDeleteFair point, it does feel more like a dramedy, but seeing how there isn't a comedy quite like TBBT I feel they'd fit better together.
ReplyDeleteI have been trying to follow 18-34s more systematically but it's still something I don't master, at all. Hopefully I am wrong though. I think both are pure bubble shows right now, it will come down to the spring ratings entirely IMO.
ReplyDelete18 to 34 is not the vital demo, not even for the CW. 18 to 49 is and in that Revolution has the advantage. I'd give Revolution a very slight advantage over Parenthood if one of them has to go.
ReplyDeleteI agree about your point about Parenthood. Revolution may be doing better than it but its not owned by NBC-Universal unlike Parenthood. Parenthood will have 90 episodes by the end of Season 5 and like you said, unless negotiations fall through and/or if NBC feels new pilots serve better than it, it has an advantage over Revolution. NBC has been marketing CHicago PD heavily and it looks appealing but for Parenthood's sake, we hope Chicago PD will fail.
ReplyDeleteI hope elementary improves in its ratings they haven't been great all season , if only CBS kept the elementary and POI combo on a Thursday. I think NBC should cancel everything in their Thursday lineup its a disaster and bringing community back wont help one bit.
ReplyDeleteThe 0.2 advantage that Revolution has over Parenthood is negligible. Four reasons: 1) Margin of error of Nielsen's statistical sample, 2) Rounding errors (i.e. difference could be even less), 3) This is just Live+SD and differences as small as these can disappear 100% in C3 (they do have the same ratings in L7), 4)Even if the 0.2 were a true, final difference in C3s, it's still too small to be meaningful and in situations like these, other considerations almost always take over.
ReplyDeleteOne of those considerations is 100% the 18-34, which, believe it or not, is a very important demo group. I kind of think that in a few years it will even overtake the 18-49 as the main one considering how few 18-34 actually watch TV (remember, scarcitiy is the key). But regardless, even nowadays, I can guarantee you that advertisers look at this. Look at the ad rates for Glee, New Girl or the Mindy Project for instance. Or look at how small the CPR of shows like NCIS is. 18-34 matters and you should not disregard it in bubble situations like this.
Yeah, I agree for the most part. If you read my point below answering RSorp, I explain why is it that in situations like these other factors will matter more. However, I have to say that I am not sure if it's such a linear situation for Parenthood. Normally, finishing the season with 88 episodes is a great spot to be because additional episodes will bring additional syndication money and because the show is still young enough for costs to increase. However, this last part applies because normally these 88 episodes shows are 4th year shows and contracts are only renegotiated in most cases at the end of season 5 - this is what prevents costs from rising at the end of season 4.
ReplyDeleteHowever, in Parenthood case, because the 88 episodes do not equal being in season 4, there is an issue there with costs increase. It comes down to whether or not the rise in costs offsets the syndication revenues of the show. And the answer to that is something none of us can guess for now. So, unless information comes out about Parenthood's syndication deal or unless the ratings gap between both opens up I am not sure we can draw any conclusions until season's end.
You dismiss too easily 18-49...it's been a constant advantage weekly. Not saying it's decisive but it is a real advantage. 18 to 34 may be looked at but it's not a vital deciding factor. Other than you claiming that, I've heard no expert claim it to be. NCIS ad rates do go down because it's 18 to 49 is lower than it's mass audience appeal.
ReplyDeleteAlso you cite 18-34 this week...does Parenthood have this advantage every week? One week can be an anomaly and margin of error can play a factor here too.
I get you--but remember I said with the 18-49 that Revolution would have a very slight advantage. So I wasn't making any big proclamation. I agree it's very close. And yes with 18-34 we don't any real data here...nothing complete to base anything on.
ReplyDeleteWell, I think where we disagree on is that I dispute the notion that a 0.2 difference can be an advantage of some kind. I think they're literally on the same footing ratings wise and will sink or swim based on others factors entirely (provided the ratings gap remains unchanged which can easily not be the case come Spring)
ReplyDeleteYes we disagree there but only slightly. But we do agree it's close.
ReplyDeleteif you love revenge and want our voices to be heard on abc sign this petition
ReplyDeletehttps://www.change.org/petitions/abc-move-a-tv-show-called-revenge-to-the-middle-of-the-week
Two and a Half Men is also the worst lead-in among Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday. NCIS LA, Criminal Minds, and Person of Interest last year on Thursday all outperformed it (and all are more compatible with 10 PM dramas).
ReplyDeleteGood point, omabin. As much as I don't want to hear that Parenthood might get canceled, it's very sad because of the costs. Thanks for your sharing opinion, omabin. :)
ReplyDeleteI don't think that will happen. One can see that just by looking at CBS press release for Thursday. The headline isn't about Big Bang Theory its about the Millers and their increase (actually seems like CBS is getting tired of the success of WB comedies). CBS will try and make the Millers happen and get it to syndication (its the only comedy from CBS production). The Crazy Ones actually did get a really good premiere exposure airing after Big Bang Theory (6.1) and getting a 3.9 demo rating. But it fall all way down 2.1. The Thanksgiving marathon might help but they will be airing against NFL on NBC and Charlie Brown Thanksgiving and an repeat of Modern Family.
ReplyDeleteIt's really such an underrated show. Jonny Lee Miller is brilliant, and I was never a huge Lucy Liu fan, but she's so subtly impressive as Watson. The writing is consistently good and it is a nice blend between procedural and serialized drama. But the acting is just really impressive. The Holmes/Watson scenes are fascinating to watch.
ReplyDeleteElementary has a lot of intangibles going in its favor if it holds pretty steady. Nothing that would make a renew/xcl decision, really, but if it comes down to E vs another similarly-rated CBS drama, I think they'd go with E. CBS owns it, as you say. Huge DVR lifts, so I think they'd attempt to move it first. NYC show with a small cast, so it's not that expensive. CBS hasn't cancelled a soph drama in six years. Elementary has every sign of being strong in syndication. It repeats well, too. So we'll see.
Dramas almost always get more viewers than comedies as most of them are older skewing.
ReplyDeleteAfter 11 years, TAAHM shouldn't be lead-in dependent.
ReplyDeleteI'm talking in terms of it being a lead-in to Elementary. I don't think the shows are compatible.
ReplyDeleteI think that's pretty sound advice.
ReplyDeleteMy bad, I read it as "2.5 Men has an abysmal lead-in"
ReplyDeleteLucy Liu is so fun as Watson. Sometimes, Jonny Lee Miller tends to be funny and Elementary tends to make me laugh in a good way even though its intended to be a drama.
ReplyDeleteI understand why others would feel that way but I had no problem with it. My issue is, the show is just not funny. I laugh more watching a hour of Sleepy Hollow than all the combined episodes that I watch of that show.
ReplyDeleteI love Elementary! I´m still in 1st season, but I find it so good.
ReplyDeleteWont it have enough episodes for syndication at the end of this season anyway? Dont see the point in keeping a low rated show when it has already reached this point, if it needed a few more episodes to get to syndication then yes it would be worth renewing.
ReplyDeleteIt should be cancelled as well as all their comedies. Parks doesnt need another season to reach syndication nor does Community. If NBC want to turn things around they would be better off cancelling all of Thursday and starting again.
He is not wrong OUAT is in decline season 1 was the best.
ReplyDelete2.5 out performs Elementary every week so no 2.5 is not to blame for Elementary's poor ratings.
ReplyDeleteBy the end of the season, Parenthood will have 90 episodes, 2 more than the requirement. 100 is better but the declining ratings are preventing it's chances of renewal from going higher.
ReplyDeleteThe show is in decline and completely incompatible with Elementary. E more often than not outperforms it in viewers and 2.5 is a shadow of itself in demo. I don't think it's out there to say that it's a poor lead-in for Elementary as much as its fair to say that TBBT is a great lead-in to the Millers. Would the Millers be doing as well without it? Likely not. A show doesn't have to be lower-rated than the leadout to be a poor lead-in. Maybe it's more fair on my part to say that the lead-in is not capable of providing a boost.
ReplyDeleteJust saw the half hours for Reign .9,.8 and over to 2 million viewers.LONG MAY SHE REIGN!
ReplyDeleteNevermind,will have to wait until later.Forgot the cw was pre empted.
ReplyDelete1.6 it is.
ReplyDeleteWell I wasn't expecting Reign to do better than Supernatural, good for them (Damnit!). EDIT: Just seen that it might be inflated. Oops!
ReplyDeleteHalf Hours:
ReplyDelete8:00 p.m.
ABC – Once Upon a Time in Wonderland
Viewers: 3.63 million (#3), A18-49: 0.9/ 3 (#5)
CBS – The Big Bang Theory
Viewers: 18.59 million (#1), A18-49: 5.2/16 (#1)
NBC – Parks and Recreation
Viewers: 2.94 million (#4), A18-49: 1.0/ 3 (#4)
Fox – The X Factor
Viewers: 5.46 million (#2), A18-49: 1.5/ 5 (#2)
CW – The Vampire Diaries
Viewers: 2.88 million (#5), A18-49: 1.3/ 4 (#3)
———-
8:30 p.m.
ABC – Once Upon a Time in Wonderland
Viewers: 3.39 million (#3), A18-49: 0.9/ 3 (#5)
CBS – The Millers
Viewers: 12.04 million (#1), A18-49: 2.8/ 8 (#1)
NBC – Parks and Recreation
Viewers: 2.69 million (#4), A18-49: 1.0/ 3 (#4)
Fox – The X Factor
Viewers: 6.29 million (#2), A18-49: 1.7/ 5 (#2)
CW – The Vampire Diaries
Viewers: 2.92 million (#5), A18-49: 1.3/ 4 (#3)
———-
9:00 p.m.
ABC – Grey’s Anatomy
Viewers: 8.30 million (#2), A18-49: 2.5/ 7 (#1)
CBS – The Crazy Ones
Viewers: 8.73 million (#1), A18-49: 2.2/ 6 (#2)
NBC – Sean Saves the World
Viewers: 2.97 million (#4), A18-49: 0.9/ 2 (#4t)
Fox – Glee
Viewers: 4.55 million (#3), A18-49: 1.6/ 4 (#3)
CW – Reign
Viewers: 2.31 million (#5), A18-49: 0.9/ 3 (#4t)
———-
9:30 p.m.
ABC – Grey’s Anatomy
Viewers: 8.65 million (#1), A18-49: 2.6/ 7 (#1)
CBS – Two and a Half Men
Viewers: 8.62 million (#2), A18-49: 2.1/ 6 (#2)
NBC – The Michael J. Fox Show
Viewers: 2.80 million (#4), A18-49: 0.9/ 2 (#4)
Fox – Glee
Viewers: 4.32 million (#3), A18-49: 1.5/ 4 (#3)
CW – Reign
Viewers: 2.07 million (#5), A18-49: 0.8/ 2 (#5)
———-
10:00 p.m.
ABC – Scandal
Viewers: 8.72 million (#2), A18-49: 2.8/ 8 (#1)
CBS – Elementary
Viewers: 9.40 million (#1), A18-49: 1.8/ 5 (#2)
NBC – Parenthood
Viewers: 3.61 million (#3), A18-49: 1.2/ 3 (#3)
———-
10:30 p.m.
ABC – Scandal
Viewers: 8.95 million (#1), A18-49: 2.9/ 9 (#1)
CBS – Elementary
Viewers: 8.86 million (#2), A18-49: 1.7/ 5 (#2)
NBC – Parenthood
Viewers: 3.60 million (#3), A18-49: 1.2/ 3 (#3)
The Big Bang Theory is even with last week, but will most likely be adjusted up a few tenths. The Millers is up two-tenths (surprisingly) and The Crazy Ones is up a tenth (thankfully). Elementary is also up two-tenths. Two and a Half Men is even. Overall, a good night for CBS.
ReplyDeleteThe X Factor is doing pathetically. I am glad I stopped watching weeks ago. Glee is up two tenths, but it maybe inflated.
Once Upon A Time In Wonderland is doing pathetically. Is ABC really not gonna pull it? Grey's dropped a tenth and hit a new series low. I guess people are not fan of the this season. Scandal is even with last week.
NBC is doing pathetically, though only the first episode of Parks and Rec was down a tenth, while every other show was even.
CW numbers are inflated, so no point talking about them
Can someone tell me what Scandal and Elementary got?. I'm
ReplyDeleteon my phone and can't see the table.
2.9 and 1.8
ReplyDeleteWere those pre-emptions for the entire night or just the 9pm hour? The 8pm hour appears stable for both CW and FOX. I will wait for finals to comment on those though.
ReplyDeletePoor Grey's. I think it could really benefit from having something resembling a lead-in for once. It has to grow all 1.5 by itself at 9pm, which is very had to do already. It always has a first half hour weaker than the second one, which really indicates problems with early tuning in. Scandal is still a monster, thank god.
CBS had a decent night, I am glad The Crazy Ones didn't fell. I think they should experiement a bit though, I am not sure if the millers is a proper 8h30 option. Maybe trying out Mom there, I dunno. Kuddo to Elementary by holding up so well at 10 after such a low rated and incompatible lead-in against Scandal.
I don't know how to comment on NBC anymore. I guess Parenthood deserves kuddos as well for growing after a terrible lead-in and against Scandal but everything else is just terrible. I am not even sure they can justify that final season for Parks now that is is about to hit sub 1s.
I think your show deserves major kudos for standing its own out of such a low rated and incompatible lead-in against Scandal. Last fall I thought its situation was too comfortable (no competition at all, major promotion, a high rated and perfectly compatible lead-in) so I hated a bit on its numbers because I felt it wasn't delivering but this fall the situation is quite terrible for it and it's holding very well. I actually think it probably deserves another season in a midweek slot before the inevitable move to Sunday/Friday if it keeps up until the end of the year. It is certainly no bubble show, it will come back 100%.
ReplyDeleteI thought the same about FOX and CW inflations. The 8pm shows are stable.
ReplyDeleteABC is committed to air all of Once Upon A Time In Wonderland's episode, but they may end up harming Grey's which has been the highest rated drama on the network for years.
I don't know if you know, but CBS is airing three back-to-back encores of The Crazy Ones next week from 8:30 to 10:00 to promote it. I wish it was a new TBBT next week, though.
Oh I was not aware of that TCO marathon! That's awesome, it shows they are invested in the show and wish to promote it. I hope it works out. I don't mind The Millers and I have watched some episodes (just because I like the cast way too much) but I don't think it's fitting there. I know it's big bang and nothing will hold well but we're possibly looking at 50% retention after finals, I am not sure CBS can overlook that. The show has to move next year if renewed (they have to use TBBT to launch something else I presume) and I am not sure it could even manage Mom esque numbers if moved. It could barely do that after a high rated TBBT repeat...
ReplyDeleteGrey's is a self starter though and those numbers aren't that bad for a 10th season show especially with the network struggling as much as it is this year.
ReplyDeleteNBC otoh is at CW levels.
I was so happy when i saw Reign at 0.9, but then i saw it is inflated. But i hope it can keep 0.7 from last week at least
ReplyDeleteOh for sure, I wasn't suggesting they were bad. It's performing at 125% of ABC drama average in most recent airings and is basically only beaten by Scandal (and MF if you consider comedies). Also, as much as people overlook it, it is responsible in large part for some of those Scandal numbers even nowadays, I am 95% sure Scandal would see a drop if it didn't get to air after Grey's and solidly build on its audience (Scandal is one of my favorite shows, I am just going on ratings). I also agree that it is a self starter and that year after year, it re-defines that concept of self-starting. However, it's been 10 years and I am sure the show could benefit from some solid 8pm basis to work with rather than having to draw all the viewers to the channel at 9pm on its own.
ReplyDeleteI watched the first two episodes of The Millers. I found it okay, but didn't care enough for it to continue. If CBS cancels TAAHM and moves The Millers there, it might be able to hold above a 2.0
ReplyDeleteTVD YOU ROCK! <3
ReplyDelete1. Doesn't matter that it's been a constant advantage weekly. It's always been a 0.1-0.2 advantage except last week when it was a 0.3 That's just insignificant. Shows don't get renewed based on such small differences like this one. It's statistically meaningless for all the 4 reasons I've explained to you above.
ReplyDelete2. I am not saying that 18-34 will be the most deciding factor but it is certain to play more of a role than 0.2 differences in 18-49. If you had show A doing 2.0 in 18-49 and 2.5 in 18-34 and you had show B doing 2.2 in 18-49 and 1.5 in 18-34, then I bet show B would be cancelled and show A would be renewed.
3. What do you mean with NCIS ad rates going down because 18-49 is lower than mass audience appeal?! NCIS has been the highest rated drama on broadcast TV for the past two seasons. So, if only 18-49 mattered, it should have the highest add rate for a drama, but it doesn't, at all. That's because other demo subsets, like 18-34 matter. Take a look at the facts (ratings are from the late portion of last year's season, ad rates for this TV season):
- NCIS: 3.1 rating, ad rate $161,09
- Grey's Anatomy: 2.9, ad rate $206,80
- New Girl: 2.2, ad rate: $231,57
There are many other examples, these are just a few. The NCIS-Grey's is a perfect example of how 0.2 differences (like Rev.-Parenthood case) are 100% irrelevant. New Girl is a perfect is a perfect example of how 18-34s matter a lot!
4. I don't follow 18-34s systematically. I intend to but it's too much work. The idea I have is that Parenthood usually has 0.1-0.2 advantage or that they are even. So, sure, I agree with you that, again, that's too small to mean anything and this week could have been an isolated event. I didn't mean to imply that Parenthood had the edge over Revolution, I think it comes down to the wire and that none of the two has an inherent advantage right now because there are factors going both ways. My point was simply that you cannot take a meaningless 0.2 difference and say that one will be renewed over the other because of that when there are other factors (among which 18-34, syndication, costs) that could spell to the other direction.