Hey everyone.
One more week, one more article looking at ratings. Today I will be tackling what is arguably the group of shows with the most passionate shows on this website, the CW network.
The 9 dramas that the CW currently airs are averaging about a 0.80 in its most recent airings. Like usual, I will be diving these shows in tiers according to its ratings, syndication and number of episodes. Unlike CBS, I thought the breakdown here was very clear. Here’s a look at it (note: relative order within each tier is random):
Tier 1:
- The Vampire Diaries
Syndication: Yes [I actually could not find information about any deal but I am assuming the show is syndicated somewhere or if not, that it will be soon. If anyone has a link about this I would love to know more concrete information]
Ratings Average: 1.30 (165%)
The Vampire Diaries has been the CW’s highest rated show for years and even though it certainly has more company at the top now than it used to, it still a colossal monster for CW standards. When a show is in such a situation, scoring 165% (!!) of its comparable average (only 3 broadcast shows currently have better relative ratings) and being already syndicated, there really isn’t anything to dwell on. Perhaps the most interesting point about this show is whether or not the CW should move it to 9pm since it hasn’t yet been able to successfully launch a show out of it yet. I’ve seen this idea around a lot and I strongly disagree with it. At the very least, TVD has always guaranteed that all shows placed post it were sampled, which is more than the 8pm slot could guarantee. I think all shows placed there suffered either from quality or from compatibility issues with both TVD and the CW brand as a whole. Moving TVD to 9pm wouldn’t have changed, most likely, the fact that these shows would have failed. It would just mean that they would have failed even more in raw numbers and there is a strong chance that they could hurt TVD in the process. It’s a very high risk, long shot low return type of move. And that’s a move you should never do IMO. Regardless, The Vampire Diaries is absolutely certain to be renewed!
- Arrow
Syndication: No
Ratings Average: 1.10 (140%)
Arrow started the season softer than most people expected but has quickly and quietly brought itself back to the top tier of the CW. Not that it was ever in any sort of danger whatsoever, but the 140% of average leaves no doubt at all about its future. Not that it needed reasons to be anymore safer than it is, but the fact that it allegedly brings loads of males 18-34 (aka the most valuable viewers) to a network normally dominated by females certainly doesn’t hurt either. This is as boring as it gets, because there is no chance that Arrow is not renewed for a third season and I can’t even imagine the rationale for a possible move, so there really is nothing for me to add here!
- The Originals
Syndication: No
Ratings Average: 1.00(125%)
The Vampire Diaries spin-off is unarguably the CW’s biggest success story of the year and I think it’s probably a top 3 success story of the year among all networks. While many thought (myself included) that the CW would and should launch the show after its parent show on Thursday, the CW bolded up and decided to have it leading Tuesdays on its own. It was one of the biggest moves and gambles of the season and two months after, I am ready to call it a huge success. Its 125% average is on par with Arrow and Supernatural and is only behind its parent show, TVD. That’s a major accomplishment for a network whose biggest success story in a pre-Arrow era was… Hart of Dixie? I think The Originals is here to stay and I wouldn’t actually be surprised to see it outliving The Vampire Diaries when cost considerations start to weight in for the mothership. But that’s speaking ahead of time. For now, it’s a mortal lock for renewal and the only question is whether it is kept on Tuesdays next year or whether it is moved to anchor struggling Mondays with a new show.
- Supernatural
Syndication: Yes
Ratings Average: 1.00 (125%)
Supernatural is the oldest CW show and I think it’s a show with one of the most interesting trajectories ever ratings wise. After being thrown to Fridays to die, it was successfully moved to a midweek slot again and then moved yet again, only to seemingly increase its success even further. I don’t even watch the show, but I have to say that I would be very proud of it if I did, as that is something you simply don’t see or expect to happen, ever. Currently, its 125% ratings average absolutely guarantee that Season 10 is a go. Costs could be a consideration but I don’t really think they matter right now, for three reasons. The first is that the ratings differential is still too significant for the CW to let such a valuable player go (they could matter for a show doing something close to 90-100% of the average. A show doing 125% is just too valuable). The second is that the show has a very small cast, which certainly helps to keep its costs in check as this is usually the highest source of costs’ increase throughout the years. Finally, and most importantly, the show is very well syndicated for a CW show. Information about this is not very easy to find, but from what I could gather, the show scores about $700,000 per episodes from TNT (which, for a CW show, is a lot) and there are also reports that the show scores another sum close to $700,000 per episode from the huge Netflix deal that the CW put in place last year. I am not sure I believe the accuracy of the numbers relative to the Netflix deal, but even if they are about one third of this, it’s still pretty significant, considering they are on top of the TNT deal. Bottom line: the show has its costs covered and I really think that this one will come down to when the two leads want to stop doing the show. For now, that doesn’t appear to be happening. The show is a lock to be renewed (even if it is probably moved yet again).
Tier 2:
- Hart of Dixie
Syndication: No
Ratings Average: 0.40 (50%)
Hart of Dixie is currently a very poor performer for the CW. 50% usually spells cancellation. However, this show is a season away from the magic 88 episodes needed for syndication which means we can’t be that quick calling for its cancellation. As such, the show is a likely renewal. Two reasons for this: 1) The show is not performing THAT badly just yet ratings wise. While 50% is terrible, we’re still not talking 30% level 2) As much as the CW appears to be improving this year, they still need spackle shows to fill part of their schedule, particularly on Fridays, and they will certainly be more interested in doing so for a show from which they can get syndication money than for a newbie performing just a little bit better when spring rolls around. Now, there are some considerations that should be made here. If, for some reason, the two bubble shows hold/improve and the midseason shows are successful, I don’t think it’s inconceivable that Hart of Dixie could be cancelled .Unlike the situation of shows like POI (100%) or even Revenge (80%), 50% is already a pretty low level. I am a big believer in syndication but I cannot imagine the CW would cancel shows performing at 90% to save a show performing at 50% (some numbers for reference: Nikita was performing at 65% last year, Fringe was performing at 65% when it got the 4th season renewal, Chuck was performing at 95% when it got its 4th season renewal). Even boosted by syndication, the show could find itself in a situation in which there is no room on the schedule for it to come back. However, I have a very hard time imagining that all other shows would suddenly be able to perform at such positive levels – it’s just too unlikely. For that reason, I am still very confident in saying that Hart of Dixie is a very likely renewal (and for Fridays by the way).
Tier 3
Tier 3 is made of two shows whose situation is not only interdependent, but also dependent on how the midseason shows do later on. As such, I will make a short introduction of each and then address their fates together.
- The Tomorrow People
Syndication: No
Ratings Average: 0.60 (75%)
At 75%, the Tomorrow People is the pure definition of a bubble show. Its retention from Arrow is disappointing and so are its relative ratings, at 75% of the CW’s average. What could the show have in its favour? Well, for starters, while disappointing, 75% is still a normal bubble level that really could go either way – it’s not that bad of a level. On top of it, the CW usually brags about this night doing mighty well with M18-34 and if that is the case for this show, then I suspect it gives it another advantage, as this is typically the preferred group of advertisers (due to its scarcity). Is that enough? There is no way to know at this point. Like I said, a pure bubble show.
- Reign
Syndication: No
Ratings Average: 0.7 (90%)
Reign is also another clear bubble show. While it’s 90% level appear way better than The Tomorrow People, the difference really isn’t significant – it’s just one tenth – and it’s only because the CW ratings are so tiny that these minor differences in absolute values look like major differences in relative values. Unlike The Tomorrow People though, the show seems to be somehow fighting its way back to a higher end bubble status and that could be a good thing if a real trend is effectively here. Right now though, I am certainly not ready to declare that the CW will prefer this show to TTP based on the fact that this one is performing 0.1 higher – it’s just statistically irrelevant (not to mention possibly not true in C3 numbers, aka the ones that really matter). It must be considered a bubble show as well.
What to make of the situation of these two shows then? As with the CW, I think it comes down to two questions?
- is it one or the other? I would tend to say that yes, it comes down to one or the other, best case scenario! This best case scenario is contingent on the midseason shows both flopping, which I don’t think is a given. If the CW renews all the shows from Tier 1 and 2, plus the usual 3 newbies, that’s 8 slots on the schedule. While they could renew two more out of The Tomorrow People, Reign, Star Crossed and The 100 group, that would require sticking one of them on a Friday after America’s Next Top Model ends (Hart of Dixie is extremely likely to get that other Friday slot) and I am not willing to assume for now that this option is financially attractive for them yet, especially considering both shows are airing after big lead-ins and that the audience erosion when moved to Fridays would likely be huge. It’s not inconceivable that they do renew both Reign and TTP if both midseason shows fail and they are willing to stick one on Fridays, but I still find it unlikely, so I am sticking with only one of the two, at best, being renewed.
- which show has the edge? I would love to have an answer for this but I don’t know. As I’ve said above, the raw numbers make it look like Reign has an advantage, but I find the difference statistically insignificant for that to be the factor that will make the CW go one way or the other. I think that, provided that both shows’ ratings level stay the same throughout the season, it will come down to one another point: which lead-in (TVD or Arrow) they are more keen on utilizing for a new show next year (other considerations like sub-demo breakdown could also play a role if they are different enough). There is also a strong possibility that this question will be answered as soon as midseason schedules are rolled out and that the CW decides to move one of them to make way for a midseason entry. Regardless, I think it’s impossible to know for now which one of the two powerhouses (TVD and Arrow) they are most interested in utilizing and at the end of the day, that’s what I think it comes down to. Hopefully, midseason makes this more clear for me to make a call.
- Beauty and the Beast
Syndication: No
Ratings Average: 0.30 (40%)
Beauty and the Beast is performing at a terrible ratings level that leaves it with a very little chance of being renewed. Just for a reference, a quick look at the “last” renewed shows of each of the last three seasons: 2010-2011 had Happy Endings and Fringe renewed at 65%, 2011-2012 had Fringe and Rules of Engagement renewed at 70% and 2012-2013 had the Carrie Diaries renewed at 60% and Nikita renewed at 65%. As you can see, the lowest renewed show was performing at 60% and I already think that was a big reach, which is why I have an extremely hard time imagining the CW wanting to renew a show performing at 40% - it would be baffling to me! Why is it not a certain cancellation then, as 95% of the industry websites have been proclaiming? Well, basically because I am unclear on how small is the % of the CW profits that comes from ad-revenues and how big is the % that comes from syndication revenues .If their goal is simply to carry shows to syndication, I don’t think it’s totally impossible that Beauty and the Beast makes history and is renewed for Fridays at 9pm instead of one out of Reign, The Tomorrow People, The 100 and Star Crossed, since it would have at least a 22 episode advantage over them. But I still think this would be a tremendous reach and I am not ready to believe they could have advertisers accepting this. Therefore, because of this unbearable 40% level, I am still calling it a likely cancellation.
- The Carrie Diaries
Syndication: No
Ratings Average: 0.40 (50%)
The Carrie Diaries is another show also performing at a ratings level that is most likely unacceptable to yield a renewal. The 50% here are somehow inflated because of my multiplicative Friday factor (maybe I should revise the models to consider an additive percentual Friday factor instead). The reality is probably something like 45%, which puts it roughly on the same field as Beauty and the Beast. That’s cancellation level almost any way we look at it, as the examples from above illustrate. Then why it is not a certain one? To be very honest, I think part of it is just the fact that I was burned by the show last year and so I am hedging my bets now. The other reason is that it is not totally impossible that the bubble shows sink further and that the midseason shows flop and that the CW decides that they are better off keeping a veteran on spackle Friday duty. In that situation, it is not 100% impossible that The Carrie Diaries, which has the bird in one hand advantage since it’s already performing there, and which has the upper hand in 18-34s, is picked instead of Beauty and the Beast. However, these are an incredible amount of ifs and by no means I am willing to predict all these will happen (especially because Beauty will be effectively one season older than carrie considering the shorter seasons). The show will most likely be cancelled.
So, to sum it up, here is how predictions stand:
Arrow – To be renewed
Beauty and the Beast– To be cancelled
Hart of Dixie – To be renewed
Reign – To be determined
Supernatural – To be renewed
The Carrie Diaries– To be cancelled
The Originals – To be renewed
The Tomorrow People – To be determined
The Vampire Diaries– To be renewed
Thanks for reading!
Tracking Table
Previous Articles:
State of CBS Dramas
State of ABC Dramas
ABC Sundays
Renewals and Cancellations Decisions and TV Numbers 101 [FAQ]
It always amazes me how the CW survives as a network at all. Yet every year it keeps on fighting like a rag tag group of survivors.
ReplyDeleteAnother great read Omabin! Glad to hear that Arrow is doing so well! :)
ReplyDelete"The Vampire Diaries is absolutely certain to be renewed!"
ReplyDeleteWell... Bummer.
I guess that trainwreck will keep on going till they have nothing to try to rip off and end up running out of nonsense they can put into the show.
Oh well. Hopefully a reboot in ten years or so, which handles the characters properly, instead of following a tv-bella-swan cardboard cutout Elena and her love triangle of serial killers.
Hey,
ReplyDeleteInteresting read, I'm only now getting into the whole ratings thing, where can I learn more about what Syndication is?
Thanks
Ash
The Carrie Diaries will be 26 episodes at the end of this season.
ReplyDeleteThis is a general overview about syndication
ReplyDeletehttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Broadcast_syndication
And this talks about the magical 100 episodes 'rule' which has changed over the years
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/100_episodes
Great read man! Very interesting. One thing though, isn't Arrows current rating 1.0 and not 1.1? (I make it 0.98 actually).
ReplyDeleteSurprisingly some CW shows performe very good with the audience in Germany. Regarding the fact, that fantasy or scifi shows have difficulty to sustain on screen. Even high quality shows like GoT, Breaking Bad, Homeland performe only avarage. But the German viewer is a mystery to all.
ReplyDeleteOnly Crime works. Comedies only work on a daily basis it is almost impossible to introduce a new (foreign) comedy in Germny on a weekly basis. Run the first two/three seasons daily, then with an established fan base introduce the new season with a weekly evening timeslot.
They are actually up year to year I think. The last time I checked they were. I think the CW is a good example of why stuff like syndication matters so much. It clearly indicates that sold adds aren't everything. Thanks for reading!
ReplyDeleteThank you! Glad you enjoyed it!
ReplyDeleteI was surprised that Beauty got renewed last year, so guess anything can happen. It is better story wise this year, but Kristin's acting is still wooden.
ReplyDeleteTVD has gone downhill for the last 2 years, yes I am still watching just to see what other crazy stories they can come up with. Seems the chemistry has gone from Ian and Nina and I do not like this more human Damon AT ALL..I want the bad boy back. This season Paul has had the best acting chops.
Supernatural is still my favorite show on TV, even though I hated season 8 and what they did to Sam's character, this year has rocked and had some old time SPN eps..ghost salt and burn epic story. In fact so far there has only been one loser ep for me. ;)
I watch more shows on CW than any other network.
Thank you for reading. I disagree about your perception regarding TVD but to each his own.
ReplyDeletesorry I driffted, maybe because of the syndication dunno why..... Hart of Dixie is performing good in Germany.
ReplyDeleteHey. Thanks for reading, I am glad you enjoyed it. In my ratings 101 article (http://www.spoilertv.com/2013/10/renewals-and-cancellations-decisions.html) I explain some bits about syndication, you can read it, in addition to the articles @Lou provided below. If you have questions afterwards, just ask me. I will be happy to help if i know how!
ReplyDeleteIt's been corrected, it was a typo. Thank you for pointing it out! And thanks for reading! As for its renewal, like I've explained, I think it would require too much stuff aligning for that to happen. Not impossible, but I say very unlikely. But you can always hope, for sure ;)
ReplyDeleteThank you for reading and for the comments, I am glad you like it. As for the rating, all the numbers that I present here are weighted to reflect mostly the most recent airings. That's because what networks are interested in knowing is how would shows perform in the future and, for that, the most recent ratings are a fair better proxy than the overall season ratings.
ReplyDelete"If the CW renews all the shows from Tier 1 and Tier 2, plus the usual 3 newbies, that's 8 slots on the schedule"
ReplyDeleteI'm a little confused by this. Arrow, TVD, and Supernatural make 3 returning veterans. The Originals makes 4, and Hart of Dixie makes 5. ANTM makes 6. Are you saying 3 newbies as in The Originals plus two more? Because I think that's the case (unless Hart of Dixie gets a shortened renewal), the CW could renew up to two more shows out of TTP, Reign, BATB, TCD, The 100, and Star-Crossed. So if the midseason shows fail, the CW could renew BOTH TTP and Reign.
Great article as always!
Thanks for reading! International markets are always tricky indeed. You really can't extrapolate conclusions to the US market. In some of them, for instance, Saturdays is the biggest TV day and it is a non-day in the US.
ReplyDeleteHey there. Thanks for reading and for commenting. I wasn't surprised by Beauty's renewal last year, I thought it was fairly expected given the cw's state at the time.
ReplyDeleteHey there. Thanks for reading and for the kind words, I am glad you liked it.
ReplyDeleteWhat I meant was that if the CW renews all shows from tier 1 and tier 2, as in, TVD, Supernatural, Arrow, The Originals and Hart of Dixie, that's 5 spots. Then you add the 3 new shows that they always have in the fall. That's 8 spots right there. If you consider that ANTM takes a spot that's 9 spots, so there is only room for one out of TTP, Reign, The 100, SC, BATB and TCD in the initial fall schedule.
Like I've said on the article, I don't put it past them that they decide to air ANTM entirely on summer or that they simply renew another show to replace it in late fall when it is done for the remainder of the year. However, I am not sure what type of incentive they would have to do this. I am not saying they won't do it, I am just saying it is fair from a given yet. Last year, for instance, they simply had Nikita on Fridays for the whole year after ANTM ended (Excluding the brief Cult period there).
Fair enouh haha. I was just a little confused. I've just noticed that you actually said in the post that you used the most recent episodes. My bad! It makes sense haha. Anyway, it was a great read! I always forget that Supernaturals costs don't go up as much as other shows due to the small cast. Do you think international ratings have any small say in the matter? Like for example I know Arrow was one of the top watched US imports here in the UK last year (as far as I can remember I think it absolutely spanked Revolution in the ratings).
ReplyDeleteOh I see. Which does make sense. I do still think there is room for two more freshmen from this season besides the Originals, but it will depend on the strength of their development slate. I also actually wouldn't be entirely shocked if BATB or TCD got short renewals for the summer, but like you said, mainly I feel burned by TCD's renewal last season.
ReplyDeleteHere in the UK Friday/Saturday are the biggest TV days of the week.
ReplyDeleteThis year the CW had 12 shows and I think they can do the same next year too, meaning renew HoD for a shorter final season like Nikita, and bring back one of the midseason dramas for 13 more episodes like they did with TCD this year.
ReplyDeleteThus, I think there's still an option the CW could renew two more freshmen shows in addition to The Originals.
Yeah, but always exist a chance and I don't expect too much of The 100 and Star Crossed.
ReplyDeleteGreat Text, Congrats!
I don't remember whether it was Spain or Italy, but in one of these countries Arrow's season finale had as many people watching as the US last year. This is crazy when considering the population size of those countries vs. the US.
ReplyDeletePersonally, I think part of the reason for this difference is that too many viewers in the US are still not giving a real chance to CW dramas after the damage Dawn caused to the CW during her years.
BTW, Arrow will have 46 episodes by the end of this season. Each of the two seasons has 23 episodes.
ReplyDeleteThank God for Supernatural Ratings!
ReplyDelete#19seasonsandamovie
I only need TVD, Arrow, The Originals, Hart of Dixie and The Tomorrow People.
ReplyDeleteNo problem! Regarding international ratings, I think they matter very little, if anything. They certainly don't hurt, but the truth of the matter is that these international markets are usually too small to be sizable. For two reasons: the US is a huge country, so advertising there will have a much bigger reach than in other small countries, which will mean the ad-rates advertisers are willing to pay there are much bigger than the ones they offer in other smaller markets. As a result, these international markets have a much lower purchasing power to buy US series, driving prices paid down. The other reason is that international networks typically produce few original content, so they also generate less revenues from there, which only adds to the fact that they can pay only lower prices for US content. I found a study a while ago on the web from someone who tried to quantify it and the results were really low in terms of the % that international sales represent of overall profitability of a show.
ReplyDeleteThank you for reading and commenting. I also like a lot of the cw shows, even though I also like shows from all the other networks. I think there is space for everything.
ReplyDeleteThank you for reading and for commenting with such kind words. Yes, it does appear that for many of us May will be unfortunate regardless of which direction they go. That's kind of why I've been avoiding Reign personally. I've been hearing a lot of good things about it, but I already have one horse in the race (TTP) and I am sure to have a second one (The 100), so Star Crossed and Reign I will only watch if renewed later. Call it hedging my losses!
ReplyDeleteEpisodes 3, 4 and 5 were my favorites so far. I wasn't a big fan of the last two episodes though (especially episode 6)
ReplyDeleteI live in Italy so I can say that some episodes had more viewers in Italy. Unfortunately, then the numbers got lower, but in the end Arrow was still in the top 3 of the american most watched tv series(in Italy), with NCIS and Castle.
ReplyDeleteArrow is actually averaging a (0.99) 1.0 not a 1.1, its average I belive is slightly below TO and SPN but they're all on a 1.0
ReplyDeleteArrow final numbers
0.9
1.1
0.9
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.0
unless youre using a different set of numbers?
Thank you for reading and commenting. The numbers I use give a much greater weight to most recent airings. That's because what networks are interested in knowing is how would
ReplyDeleteshows perform in the future and, for that, the most recent ratings are a
fair better proxy than the overall season ratings. Even though Arrow is indeed averaging a 0.99 for the overall season, its most recent airings give it a 1.1 average. I found that this is a much better indicator of a show's renewal prospects!
I happened to be cruising thru channels a couple of years
ReplyDeleteago and stumbled across an episode of Supernatural. I found myself so impressed I binged 6
seasons in a couple of weeks and became completely captured. You get a bit of
everything, action, adventure, chills and thrills, blood and guts, some
episodes are sad, some are hilarious, some are edge of seat. Unlike TVD, the characters are real – you quickly
become invested in the lives of these wild and crazy brothers who hunt monsters
and demons. The show might not get the
ratings, but the fans are rabid and loyal.
Nine years, man.... nine years.
3, 4, and 5 were my favorites as well, but you didn't like the Russell/Darcy episode? Either way, every episode from 3 onwards seems like the show has more or less found itself, whereas the first two were really exposition and still figuring things out.
ReplyDeleterecent airings? there have only been 7/8 episodes so far this season those would all be recent airings surely.
ReplyDeleteAnyway I have posted the final numbers from TVBTN above and Arrow's average over all 7 episodes aired this season so far is a 0.99 basically a 1.0.
TVD's season average is a 1.2
SPN is a 1.0
TO is a 1.0
TTP is a 0.7
Reign is a 0.7
HOD is a 0.4
Beauty is a 0.3
TCD is a 0.3
these numbers are based on all airings so far this season
The Russel episode was just fine to me. I like his character better as background character, not front and center. But that wasn't my problem with the episode. The focus on the love triangle and the character assassination of Kara and Steven (although toned down in the subsequent episode to some extent) was what bothered me. The Darcy part was the best one out of that episode, but it wasn't enough for me.
ReplyDeleteLike I've explained to you, I don't think it's relevant to consider all the 8 airings (1/3 of the season) equally. The last 2/3 episodes are much more important in determining the show's future ratings. That's like saying that Shield's average when considering renewal is 2,95 instead of 2.40. It's misleading and it tells you squat about the way shows will perform in the future. Especially because 80% of the shows (if not more) have fall ratings that are in line with its previous May ratings ceteris paribus, so it makes no sense to consider older episodes there. My formula also disregards bit outliers (e.g. the Glee tribute episode) because those are not an indication of how the show will perform in the future.
ReplyDeleteObamin GREAT overview and what do you think about CW taking up some 10pm slots or even Sunday slots?
ReplyDeleteBeauty and TCD were basically renewed as schedule spackle, though Beauty did actually finish the season as the 4th highest rated show on the net last season. Beauty and HOD were the two middling shows that survived last year.
ReplyDeleteThank you for reading and for the kind words. Well, I doubt that's feasible. The CW is currently fighting to keep its 10 slots alive past next season. I am not sure they have the properties to justify taking back time-slots from the affiliates. It would be one thing if all of their time-slots had shows doing better than what the affiliates can do, let's say higher than 0.8 (I am not even sure on this number) but as much as they are improving, they are still away from that. So I doubt that can be done, from the little I know of those financials.
ReplyDeleteOne of the things I like about SPN is when they have a fight, the guys don't come out pretty, they have cuts, bruises and blood that last into the next ep if that one is a few days later. I have also heard that other shows have come to them to find out how to do the driving at night stuff. They have that down to a science. J2 are super actors that have me wrapped around their little fingers and then they add Misha and my world became perfect. lol
ReplyDeleteBeauty and the Beast finished the year 75% of its comparable average. That's usually bubble with renewal possibilities but given the spackle need it was obvious that they would have to renew it IMO. Hart was performing at a perfectly acceptable ratings level, 85%, so there really was no reason for it not to be brought back.
ReplyDeleteI am crying from happiness about Supernatural :'))) <3
ReplyDeletethank you for responding. I believed it was ratings wise connected. I love a lot of the CW shows(Vamps,Originals,Reign,Arrow and Hod ( the Cd is solid as well)). I see The 100 being good as well, star crossed has a solid cast and could see both go strong. So it will be quite tied to choose what goes and stays.
ReplyDeleteThanks for reading and I am glad you are happy about your show ;)
ReplyDeleteI am always surprised how bad the Ratings of Beauty (without real Beast, the scar is more artful than ugly) actually are considering how loud this particular fandom is...perhaps it's desperation.
ReplyDeleteOMG CW is my all time favorite channel. Thanks so much for doing this. I literally watch almost every CW show. The only fall/midseason show section which I dont watch is Nikita (watched 1st season) and Supernatural (watched 4 and a bit of 5) I really hope they renew HoD and Reign, TCD is better than the prev season but I wont be surprised if it got cancelled but I really enjoyed every moment of season 2. I dont really care for TTP or BatB. My fav show it TVD ofc. I really wish Secret Circle would come back (I know it wont happen just a wish btw thats what I wish for for my past birthday)
ReplyDeleteTCD isnt averaging a 0.4 it hasnt had a 0.4 this season at all I believe?
ReplyDeletevery well then
ReplyDeleteLOL, desperation is my thoughts also.
ReplyDeleteHey! Thanks for reading and commenting, I am glad you enjoyed reading it!
ReplyDeleteI should have copied the disclaimer I've put on the CBS post. Here it is:
ReplyDeleteBefore I start, just a quick note: I consider a Friday factor of about 25% for all shows airing on Fridays. This number is a result of a look at past renewal and cancellation decisions for the last 4 seasons – while some argue that the number is too low (I have seen many using 30%) and some say it is too high (some people say it’s more 15-20%), I found that this is the number that best explains the past decisions from networks when it comes to Friday shows. In any case, even if you believe the number is slightly inflated or deflated, I think that is unlikely to make a meaningful difference, especially because Friday shows are mostly often subject to syndication economies, whose importance will be far higher than these small difference. I may revise this again in the future if I find enough compelling evidence to do so. For the time being, please keep in mind that all numbers (including the overall average and, therefore, the % ratings for each show) will be calculated using this factor!
This being said though, I think this generates me some problems with the cw because its ratings are so tiny to begin with. As noted in the text, I may consider trying an additive rather than multiplicative factors moving forward - the end result is mostly the same though.
hence Beauty was a middling show, well it was by the last 1/3 of the season, it had dropped of the pace of Arrow, SPN, TVD and was doing around HOD numbers. Everything else was doing worse. If the CW could have replaced the show they probably would have given that it was already in decline and they must have known that it would suffer at least a partial loss being moved away from TVD.
ReplyDeleteYes but Arrow, Supernatural and The Vampire Diaries accounted only for 3 hours of the 9/10 programmed hours by the CW. Beauty and the Beast was still doing better than 90210, The Carrie Diaries, Cult and Nikita and was on par with Hart of Dixie. Hence the 75% level and the renewal.
ReplyDeleteThanks for another great article! Will be interesting to see which shows will be renewed in the end. I am glad Arrow is a lock, I am loving this season!
ReplyDeleteI am also hoping that The Tomorrow People will have another season. I think it's not as great as Arrow, but I certainly enjoy it as long as they keep the love triangle (quartet with Astrid? quintet with Jenny?) at the background. And then I hope that The 100 will succeed, it's looking really good (let's hope it gets a good time slot)! I am keeping my fingers (star-)crossed, but there might be a possibility that both of them are renewed. Arrow, Supernatural, The Originals and The Vampire Diaries will all be renewed. They will debut 3 new shows in the fall (quite possibly The Flash and the Supernatural spin-off and another show). Even if ANTM will run in the fall and Hart of Dixie will get a full season (I doubt both will hapen, but either one is possible), they still have one slot on the fall schedule. Renew The Tomorrow People for fall and give The 100 a mid-season renewal. Pedowitz said that The 100 could be a limited series. If Hart of Dixie will get a shortened final season a la Nikita (6 episodes) and/or ANTM will not run in the fall, even Reign could be renewed!
LOVED the article, you seriously get how this system works :D (do you work in that sector by any chance ? :) )
ReplyDeleteAs for TTP vs. Reign: I think the decision will be based on wich show costs more and wich show has the better overseas sales in the end if their ratings stay head to head. Also TTP isn't that serialized and can be easier offered for syndication
Thank you for reading and for the kind words, I am glad you enjoyed it. I am also in love with Arrow this season, even though this past episode was meh to me. I think the issue with two shows from the SC,The100,TTP and Reign being renewed is that I am not sure how interesting it is to put them on Fridays for a second season. I assume the cw makes most of its money back through syndication and I am not sure it is feasible to carry that show to syndication 3 seasons on Fridays. The Nikita experiment didn't really work that well. I think they would be better served sticking Beauty there, at least it's one less season to carry it to syndication (I don't actually think this will happen, hence the cancellation predicted). I don't really see why they wouldn't give Hart a complete season. I can't explain the Nikita situation properly, but I think it was a one-off situation, not the example. I think Hart will get a full one. I don't exclude the possibility of something like Reign keeping it company on Fridays but I am still not ready to call for it yet. If its ratings that they want from fridays, I don't think any of these new shows will do better than the 0.4s that ANTM brings there to be honest. We shall see. I am also strongly rooting for The 100 and TTP!
ReplyDeleteThanks for taking the time to write this :D You made my day ;)
ReplyDeletegot to admitt I was all for TTP before the season started and watched the pilot as soon as I could where as I didnt even bother thinking about Reign, but then I thought I would give it a try basically because I wanted to know what all the fuss positive and negative was all about. I ended up watching all 5 episodes in one go and made sure to catch up with the latest episode straight off whereas I couldnt get through hald an episode of TTP. Reign is good its just not for everyone but uit certainly doesnt deserve the bashing it gets. I think its much better than TTP.
ReplyDeleteIt
Thank you very much for reading and for those kind words, glad you enjoyed the article. And no, I don't work in the sector at all, I am just interested in all this and I've spent some time researching it.
ReplyDeleteAs for TTP vs. Reign, international sales are very unlikely to make a difference. The size of international markets usually doesn't allow for that. I explained that below to someone else:
Regarding international ratings, I think they matter very little, if anything. They certainly don't hurt, but the truth of the matter is that these international markets are usually too small to be sizable. For two reasons: the US is a huge country, so advertising there will have a much bigger reach than in other small countries, which will mean the ad-rates advertisers are willing to pay there are much bigger than the ones they offer in other smaller markets. As a result, these international markets have a much lower purchasing power to buy US series, driving prices paid down. The other reason is that international networks typically produce few original content, so they also generate less revenues from there, which only adds to the fact that they can pay only lower prices for US content. I found a study a while ago on the web from someone who tried to quantify it and the results were really low in terms of the % that international sales represent of overall profitability of a show.
As for costs, while they could break a tie, I think it's unlikely that there are meaningful differences between two freshman shows. Like I've explained on the article, it's much more likely that the decision comes down to demo breakdown and to which slot the cw wishes to use to launch a new show (either midseason or fall).
I do not know what the reference numbers compared to last year at this same time when BATB was being quoted for cancellation. Did you have this information, just to compare and understand what went wrong this season. It is true that most fans are not liking the progress of the series, ie, the dynamics have changed and took the passion and love that was a constant, it has divided fans who like desgotam and at the same time. It also has BATB be transmitted with the new episode on Sunday and Monday showcase the CW channel. I think this also implies the final numbers. And lastly I think the change of day - Thursday to Monday, it helped that the numbers would fall because before BATB came after TVD and brought together a large number of television audiences.
ReplyDeleteI'm a fan of the series and much to twist it to survive and pass this phase cancellation.
In the Netherlands Fridays and Saturdays are the biggest TV days.
ReplyDeleteThanks for the clarification. I very much hope that she can survive and reach the coveted 3rd season. I'm rooting hard for it. :)
ReplyDeleteAnother factor btw is also the shows they are premiering next year. I don't watch Reign and do watch TTP but I think Reign has more chances because it's different from the many sci-fi\action shows the CW has to offer. Also, at least the Flash would probably target the male audience more like Arrow does, and then they'll want to balance by keeping a show that is targetting the female audience, and Reign has higher W18-34 numbers than TTP has.
ReplyDeleteAlso, in their renew\cancel prediction, TVBTN also ignore the ratings of the first episodes. They usually start from fresh when shows return on January and ignore their fall\early winter ratings in their predictions.
ReplyDeleteIf they pick up The Flash and SPN's spin-off, they could have 6 strong shows and be competitive in all weekdays. This will only help the CW's chances when they need to renew their contracts after the 2015-2016 season.
ReplyDeleteHoD's ratings this season are pretty close to Nikita's last year's ratings, especially if you add the Friday factor to Nikita.
ReplyDeleteNielsen is a fine statistical method. It has a decent sample size and presumably it takes into account households different enough for it to be meaningful. Just because a show has a large online following doesn't mean that there is a large amount of people watching it live. Just because an audience is enthusiastic about a show doesn't mean they are more than they are in fact. For instance, NCIS has the largest 18-49s for 3 seasons running and you hardly see any online activity. Yet, no question that it is much more watched than any cw show. Its viewers aren't worth any more or any less than viewers who engage a lot on online activities. It's just the why it is.
ReplyDeleteMy methodology in the end does that even though I don't have such a harsh cut. For the first episodes after winter hiatus it will still consider the late fall episodes, but after a few these will be moslty disregarded. But I think their methodology doesn't update enough. If a show does well in winter but slips a lot in spring the index will not reflect that.
ReplyDeleteWell, you can't escape NCIS...it is always on somewhere...not that it is a bad thing. It is a good show to put on when you have nothing better to do. I guess a show like this, with a minimal story-arc, gets more stragglers than all the overcomplicated arc-heavy shows which are nowadays common.
ReplyDeleteQuestion: Will you do this for all the networks or just the mayor ones?
ReplyDeleteI intend to do this for all the broadcast networks. I am affraid I don't have the knowledge to do the cable networks if that was your question?
ReplyDeleteI don't think that will be it. Every single CW show has more W18-34 than M18-34 (like 90% of broadcast shows by the way). So if a show has more M18-34 than average, that will have the edge, if anything. I don't know why is it that people think that W18-34 are more valuable than M18-34 - they are not. They watch much more TV than M18-34 do, so they are easier to reach, hence less valuable.
ReplyDeleteI wasn't criticizing the show. Just explaining that the level of engagement with which you watch a show means 0 for its profitability, hence for its renewal chances.
ReplyDeleteReign and Tomorrow people r 2 of the most quality shows currently along with Originals. if the dont renew it will be the networks biggest loss. Reign is surprisingly very very well scriipted and acted and tomorrow people is picking up too. both shows have have to be picked up.. can they only determine the fate by ratings? what about huge online fanbase which reign currently has? its even on 2nd position in peoples choice awards.
ReplyDeleteIn relative terms, Hart of Dixie's ratings are actually worse. Hart of Dixie is at 50% and Nikita was at 65% with friday factor. But I still think that was a one off situation and I don't think it will happen again. Hart of Dixie is presumably the type of cheap show that will do reasonably well in syndication that is worth producing the whole 88 episodes. Nikita was finishing the year at 0.2s - as much as networks cut some slack to Fridays (and they do), for advertisers a 0.2 is a 0.2 and I am not sure they could even sell adds for shows performing that low. 0.4 is still double that, regardless of how little 0.2 differences are usually worth it. I wouldn't be shocked with another short season for Hart of Dixie but I would be surprised. I don't think the Nikita situation is the norm.
ReplyDelete"Every single CW show has more W18-34 than M18-34"
ReplyDeleteNot true, Arrow has more M18-34 than W18-34 almost every week. They do sometimes tie, like during episode 2.07, but I've yet to see more W18-34 than M18-34 on Arrow, and there's a good chance The Flash would skew similarly.
currently arrow tvd and supernatural are airing in India same week as US airings and these r 3 most popular shows in India.. so get a picture how popular CW shows are.
ReplyDeleteThanks for reading. Well, international airings really have little to no bearing on a show's renewal prospects, but it is nice to know, thank you for sharing.
ReplyDeleteI didn't take it as criticism...especially not since I do like NCIS, even if I am not an avid watcher and loathe Beauty with all my heart. I don't wish the fans anything bad, but every time I see what they did with the original show I used to love (even though it had a lot of flaws, it had an urban mystic I appreciated), I desperately wish for a fast cancellation. Or at least for it happening somewhere where I don't notice it, but that's something the fandom won't allow, due to being so vocal.
ReplyDeleteAwww...too bad. I could use with an analysis...it is hard to judge them, because it is hard to tell what they consider good ratings.
ReplyDeleteOh well, I'll look forward to the NBC one.
do we have the CW's M18-34 ratings by any chance?
ReplyDeleteVery good analysis. From my point of view so far, i agree with your predictions.That been said, let's not forget that this is CW, and they always do some surprises...
ReplyDeleteThank you for reading and for the kind words. As for surprises, I do think they are possible (hence me hedging my risks by putting both Beauty and Carrie as likely cancelled only instead of certain) but I am not sure why people think the cw always does surprising things. In 2009/2010, they had one clear underperforming show, Melrose Place, at 60% which was cancelled. Everything else was >70% so was renewed. In 2010/2011, they cancelled Life Unexpected which was performing at 75% and Hellcats which was performing at 60%. Everything else was >80% so was renewed. In 2011/2012, they had three show at 75% (The Secret Circle, Gossip Girl and Nikita). Like always (I explain it my number 101 post if you are interested), freshman shows have more to prove, so The Secret Circle was cancelled and the other were kept. Hart of Dixie was performing a tiny bit better than these bubble shows. Last year, yes, I agree with you that The Carrie Diaries renewal at 60% being a freshman was surprising, but that's basically the only CW surprise I have from the last 4 years. I think other networks are more unpredictable (ABC with its comedies, CBS with its dramas)
ReplyDeleteSometimes the cw releases them through press releases. The other times you can calculate them because we can get the A18-34 and the W18-34 so it's possible to extrapolate the M18-34. I don't do it though, too much work.
ReplyDeleteThey are sometimes posted over at Marc Berman's site, and can also be easily calculated when they post both total 18-34 and W18-34 there.
ReplyDeleteOk maybe that's true and I was wrong, I admit I was generalizing a bit there from what I usually see. I stand corrected.
ReplyDeleteHowever, my point still applies. They have one male skewing show on the network, why would they prioritize a show based on the fact that it skews more female than other, when females is what they have the most already?
But we do have on spoiler tv a regular look at cable ratings. Here you go: www.spoilertv.com/2013/11/rating-analysis-state-of-cw-dramas.html#comment-1138459608
ReplyDeleteLast time I checked TTP was pretty close to Arrow (which makes sense considering Arrow is its lead-in) and assuming The Flash is picked up that would make it 2 or 3 if TTP is renewed as well. I suppose the priortizaton or lack of is dependent on which ratings Mark P is most interested in and we don't know. We are making all those calculations on 18-49 ratings when the CW have 18-34, 18-49, M18-34, M18-49, W18-34, and W18-49 and we don't really know which ones are most important to the CW and its advertisers. Thus, it's possible the CW do take the points I mentioned above under consideration and it's possible they don't. It's hard to say.
ReplyDeleteHey there again. No, I am afraid online fanbases and people choice awards don't mean anything when determining a show's renewal chances. Basically, TV is a business so it only matters whether or not these things generate profit for the networks/studios, which is not the case. I explain it in greater detail here: http://www.spoilertv.com/2013/10/renewals-and-cancellations-decisions.html
ReplyDeleteWell, even 3 out of 10 with be pretty low. And I don't think it's a matter of what they prefer, that's just PR spin. M18-34 tend to sell more (look at FOX Sunday) because they are so scarce. But you know, we're debating this but at the end of the day, I doubt it will be the gender breakdown that will make it or break it for any of the shows. I think it will be more in terms of which slot they want to use (post Arrow or post TVD). If we're talking midseason and it's The 100, I see why people want it after Arrow, but I actually think it would be smarter to schedule a more male show Thursdays at 9 since there is none there. We shall see. It shouldn't take them much longer to reveal the midseason schedule I imagine.
ReplyDeleteFirst, thank you for reading and for taking the time to comment. Then, in regards to your declaration that I am being biased, here's a look at a few facts:
ReplyDelete- it you are referring to the table position, it is sorted alphabetically. if you are referring to the main text, I note at the beginning that the order within each tier is 100% random. Feel free to believe it's all a big conspiracy instead.
- International sales are nice, but have almost no bearing in renewal decisions. The size of international markets is just too small for that. I have explained why in detail below. Feel free to skim through my other comments and find the explanation.
- Please provide a source other than "from what I have heard" that states that Reign is indeed significantly cheaper to make than The Tomorrow People. In most cases, ceteris paribus, freshman shows have roughly the same costs. If you intend to argue that it isn't the case here, provide evidence of such. Also please keep in mind you are comparing a show with some special effects with a period show - neither of which is cheap.
- So, because the CW has 2 shows that skew male (Arrow and The Tomorrow people) you think that's an argument to cancel a male skewing shows? Instead of 1 of the 8 female skewing shows? Right... Please read my Ratings 101 piece and understand it is all about scarcity.
- Please provide clear numbers stating that The Tomorrow People is not doing well in younger demos compared with Reign. From what I have seen, the tend to have roughly the same 18-34 numbers. I think Reign had the edge in some weeks, but it's mostly even, and when it's not, the differences are on the order of 0.1, which is 100% meaningless for renewal purposes. I may be wrong on this since I don't follow the systematically, but if you want me to buy your argument, please provide numbers.
- It doesn't really matter at which level a show starts - what matters is the level at which it settles. So it doesn't matter that one declined and is stable here and the other has been basically stable since the beginning. It's 100% meaningless as what the CW wants to evaluate is the type of level the shows with be in next year, so early ratings matter zro.
- Again, please prove that Reign does significantly better in younger demos (not 0.1/0.15 differences)
- Increasing in the number of total viewers or decreasing in the number of total viewers is 100% irrelevant for a show's renewal prospects
- Again... why would the fact that there are more male shows in development mean that the cw will get ride of 1 out of the 2 male skewing shows they do have? What sense does that make?
Like I explained on the text, I have no idea which one will be renewed. Both have pros an cons on their favor - I pointed out both on the text. If you prefer to live believing that it's a 0.1 difference, together with all those 100% irrelevant arguments you've made, that will mean Reign has the edge, that's your prerogative. In the end you may luck out and have Reign renewed (and then you will think that you were wrong, when you weren't, because it wasn't renewed for the reasons you're stating) or you will be disappointed by finding that Reign was cancelled. I will certainly make a prediction on them later in the year but for now, I truly have no idea which way they're going. Yes, I do want them to renew TTP over Reign but that doesn't mean that's what facts and objective analysis are saying.
Thanks Andy, I explained that as well in my comment above!
ReplyDeleteHey there. Thanks a lot for reading and for your kind words, they are really appreciated.
ReplyDeleteAs for the whole TTP/Reign thing, I am still TTP camp. I liked its first two episodes, I loved episodes 3, 4 and 5, I hated episode 6 and thought episode 7 was ok. I despise the way they've portrayed the triangle but I've learned that so many shows take time to find their footing. For instance, I was watching Revolution last year just because, but it has now turned into one of my favorite shows. Arrow is another example. It was nice and all last year but this year it jumped right into one of my favorites. Sometimes it just takes time and I believe The Tomorrow People has a lot of potential and they're getting so much backlash for this triangle of doom that I think they will back out and focus on the better storylines.
I have also been hearing good things about Reign but because I already have one horse on the renewal race (TTP) and I a about to have a second one (The 100), I am staying clear of Reign and Star Crossed until summer. If they are renewed, I will watch them by then. Until then, I have to hedge my possible losses lol.
Another great read Omabin! Glad to hear that Arrow is doing so well! :)
ReplyDeleteWow man, another extemely great article! I remember when you said last week that you'd try to write the article well despite it being tough, but you definitely nailed it! It was truly enjoyable to read :) Thanks for that!
ReplyDeleteThanks for your reply. know the amount of real viewers has nothing to do with the fandom but someone made the comparison betweenthem so that's why I made this comment, just to explain the difference. But Ibbelieve that a lot of people are prejudiced of the CW and are watching not any show on it. And I know the ratings on BatB are low (too low, but on a very tough Mondaynight) and they deserve more with the quality it has this season. I just wish more people gave it a fair chance. But us international fans keep watching and supporting this show.
ReplyDeleteAlways a pleasure.
ReplyDeleteAs for TTP: I really hope you're right. I think this show has one of the most interesting premises from the pilots this year and a strong potential. So hopefully the creators will realize the flaws and work on them, focusing on the much better parts. Then I'll gladly see what's next.
Reign: Yeah, I think I'll wait till summer too, to see how things stand and maybe do a marathon, which is always a fun thing to do.
Star Crossed - Still have zero interest in this one.
The 100 - I have a preview to write ;) Waiting till we get closer to premiere date.
I really like Reign :) and I love TVS, Arrow, TO, SPN :)
ReplyDeleteI will be looking forward to The 100 premiere. It's been one of my most antecipated new shows of the season ever since pilot season! I was bummed when it was left to midseason. Hopefully it has a decent shot at making it!
ReplyDeleteI do agree that a lot of people don't watch the CW just because, but remember: that's why Beauty and the Beast is not competing with shows from the other networks but with show from the same network. All the other shows suffer from the same prejudice!
ReplyDeleteWow thanks again for all the kind words! Really glad you enjoyed the article so much! Appreciate it!
ReplyDeleteThanks for reading, hopefully you found it useful to understand the fate of your shows ;)
ReplyDeleteI meant The 100 preview by the way! Sorry!
ReplyDeleteAh, that's great thank you!
ReplyDeleteThat's awesome, thanks! I'll definitely take a look at the links you both shared..
ReplyDeletePersonally, I'm hoping The Tomorrow People gets picked up over Reign, couldn't get into Reign at all, but really enjoying the tomorrow people.
Glad to see The Originals is pretty much guaranteed to get a second season, as a huge fan of The Vampire Diaries I was quite worried about that as spin offs don't always go down well!
You're welcome! I am also rooting for the tomorrow people, but at this point it's impossible to call it! Let's hope for the best!
ReplyDeleteThe Cw it`s getting better year after year! TVD, TO, ARROW, SPN are sure things... the show im worry about rn is Reign im afraid once they move the show in January cause i think they are going to use TVD to lauch the 100 ... .the ratings for Reign are going to fall i just hope im wrong and the show keeps getting the 0.7 that has been getting these few weeks!
ReplyDeleteI love Arrow and Reign. I hope they survive. I gave up Grey's anatomy to watch Reign,but I hope they don't move either to Friday, my Fridays are full.
ReplyDeleteThanks for reading and commenting. Well I do agree that if moved, the show's ratings are likely to fall (same for TTP). That's why I think the cw is taking so long to announce its midseason schedule. They are hoping that the situation of which show they move becomes clear. Let's see.
ReplyDeleteThank you for reading and commenting. I definitely think it's possible they move one of the bubblers (Reign or The Tomorrow People) to Fridays come midseason. Which one will go is the interesting part. Let's see what happens! Shouldn't take much longer now!
ReplyDeletecan i ask what Syndication means
ReplyDeleteStill not giving up on BatB because I Love it, even if it looks bad. At least we are nominated in PCA twice. Shows like HOD didn't even make it in the nominations. We keep fighting, and I know many dislike this on us Beasties but I love how the Fans are fighting for their show. So don't give up Beasties. As long it isn't called cancelled we are still around
ReplyDeleteAnd glad Arrow is doing well and I can hope for a second season for TTP? Why do I always love the CW shows who are doing not so well in the USA...
ReplyDeleteI've explained what it is here: http://www.spoilertv.com/2013/10/renewals-and-cancellations-decisions.html It's under the Syndication Potential tab. Take a look and if you still have questions let me know afterwards
ReplyDeleteThank you for reading and commenting. You should not give up on Beauty and the Beast and, although I think it's more likely to be cancelled than renewed, there is a tiny possibility that it is brought back to Fridays 9pm next year. However, I would note that if that happens it will 0% be because of the PCA. It matters 0% that you win PCAs because that brings 0 money for the network or the studios, hence has no bearing on the renewal chance of the show. It would matter only if the award were to bring extra attention to the show in terms of 18-49 viewers but that's unlikely considering it already won it last year.
ReplyDeleteWell, as I've explained on the text, TTP is a bubble show. So while you can certainly hope for a second season (and I certainly do hope for one), it really could go either way at this moment.
ReplyDeleteYaa i know :( its just sad that shows which have huge international fanbases r not even considered :(
ReplyDeleteOh i didnt Notice you write the article Congratz, great piece BTW!.. I know but i think the should move TTP and Reign the same day to see how both can do at their own!
ReplyDeleteWell, I think it's a bit soon to test them. New shows are usually placed after established shows to allow them to grow an audience and that takes time. Regardless, I think they are sure to move one of them because they need the space for midseason debuts.
ReplyDeleteHey. Thanks for reading and commenting. I don't watch Reign so I can't really comment on that I am afraid.
ReplyDeleteOh, well. It can't be help. Though the story is full of historical inaccuracies, Reign is actually decent to watch and Adelaide Kane puts up a good show!
ReplyDeleteBut showmakers said last year, they got the renewed, because it was at least stable and they saw that the fandom is passion, because of winning the PCA Award and a lot of internet polls.
ReplyDeleteWhat showmakers and network executives say about renewals et all cannot be believed. They say a lot of stuff for PR purposes. They also claim often that total viewership is high and all, when it is 100% irrelevant for a show's renewal. In general, you can believe the following rule: if factor X (insert factor here such as PCA Awards, Internet polls, passion of fanbase, etc.) generates money, it is relevant; if it doesn't generate money, it is irrelevant. All factors you've mentioned don't generate money so they are irrelevant!
ReplyDeleteI know the source material VERY well.
ReplyDeleteElena of the books is NOTHING like Elena of the show. Book-Elena is closer to darker version of Buffy Summers, Veronica Mars or Cordelia Chase in terms of personality. She is strong, ferocious, snarky, sassy and always in control and her modus operandi is pretty much all about going against the norm and rebelling against authorities, both natural and supernatural. Someone who is quite into solving mysteries(in fact the first book is pretty much a murder mystery from point of view of human Elena), but is not beyond murdering you and everyone you know, if you even spend a second threatening her or someone she cares about.
Elena of tv show is meek caring helpless carebear, stuck in love triangle and doing nothing but whining about the said love triangle. No character development, no real focus on who she is. Nothing of value acomplished. And yet every character believes she is so unique and awesome and smart and good-willed and pretty much second coming of a messiah. In a whole show so far her characterization is pretty much "that girl that everyone loves". THE Definition of Mary Sue.
The show also has barely anything to do with the books in terms of plot.
For starters, TVD books, even if they are typical teen-romance novels, have actual over-arching plotline. Its a universe filled with vampires and werewolves, witches and shapeshifters, angels and demons and thousand year long conspiracies, with one girl at the center of it. Except, unlike the romance-novel expectatons, the said girl, Elena is the opposite of the typical romance heroine. Strong, dangerous, manipulative, cynical and incredibly apathic to the whole "greater good" nonsense she is someone who could possibly finish highschool while bullying others, get a great job and lead a great privileged life. But two strange brothers just happen to return to town after a long time and she just has to decide to make one of them her newest romantic conquest and it all goes to hell, involving both the history of the town, the past of the brothers and even her own heritage.
The tv show is barely even based on the books. Apart from the basic concept of the girl, two brothers and a town, it has nothing in common with it even if characters share same names as their book counterparts. It has no real plot, love triangle is shoved into everything and character development is non-existent.
The first season tried to incorporate real plots, to grow the characters, to give some interesting mysteries, but then by mid S2 it just...gave up. And by S3 they pretty much started pulling random plotlines out of their asses. The Narrative quality is so poor that it would make even the worst soap opera writers want to kill themselves.
So yeah, the showrunners basically took a promising book concept and threw it all away to capitalize on Twilight fanbase.
" I think CW Offers some of the best series"
ReplyDeleteThank you for making me laugh.
The last great thing CW had was season three of veronica mars and they even managed to cancel that one.
Thanks for the article! I'm sad about Beauty and the Beast! I hope Tomorrow People gets renewed and Reign I would watch if it's there but it wouldn't be a loss if it wasn't.
ReplyDeleteI will never understand why they decided to air 3 Supernatural episodes in a row. And I think they used to start at 10pm or something. I mean, did they actually really hope for good numbers or did they just want to show all of the episodes, but just get it over with because they never got good numbers? Why bother to show them anyways, then?
ReplyDeleteAnd from what you're writing I'm guessing that the numbers for Arrow are pretty good?
I can never get myself to watch it on German TV, because I just cannot take the dubbing ... so much about a character is about how the actor makes him sound (if you get what I mean) and that's all lost with the dubbing. I'm not saying that it's always bad, but I usually need loads of time to get used to it.
I doubt Beauty and the Beast will be cancelled. Yes, it has a terrible audience in the US, but in Europe and Latin America, the show is a huge sucess: it has been sold to 24 countries. I'm starting to think americans have never believed in Fairy Tales... haha
ReplyDeleteYeah dubbing is awful, especially for SPN. Arrow is ok though.Except for Grimm I watch all non-crime shows in Englisch. After reading this article I checked the german numbers and was quite surprised how well Arrow (and Grimm, it's the lead in) are performing. But IMO the dubbing is essential if a show works on the German market. The succsessful ones always have good dubbing an vice versa. German TV stations also have no respect for scheduling. Changing it constantly or cancelling without further notice. Sometimes they decide to show final seasons two or three years after to make fans happy (?) and because they payed for the shows anyway. But they broadcast the last season in the middle of the night (see Alias at 02:00 am). Maybe this will change since we have new networks that even broadcast in original language (Proseibenmaxx) and they are performing quite well. Procedual shows work better on German TV than serialized thus they often decide to air more episodes in a row (GoT on two weekend e.g.) or always double Episode of Homeland. CW shows seem to work very good on the smaller newer TV stations (SIXX, TNT, Prosiebenmaxx) rather then on our big Networks. If you interested on the German market (and you speak German, what I'm assuming) check out: quotenmeter.de
ReplyDeleteThank you for reading and commenting!
ReplyDeleteHey there. Thanks for reading and commenting. As for Beauty and the Beast, the fact that it has an international audience doesn't mean anything for a show's success. That international audience is of very little financial value for the networks/ studios who pay to produce the show, so it has no bearing (or very little bearing) on its renewal chances. On top of that, you have to ask yourself how does Beauty and the Beast's allegedly international success compares with the others from fellow CW shows? It doesn't mean anything to say that it has been sold to X countries. You would have to compare it with the number of countries to which the other CW shows were sold. Regardless, as I've said, even if it was the highest selling CW show to international markets, it's very unlikely that would make a meaningful difference and allow it to be saved.
ReplyDeleteI don't think you can find that information. The most you could probably find is the number of channels to which each show has been sold but then the price for which each has been sold will probably be drastically different from market to market due to differences in size, etc. And again, it would be a pointless exercise because at the end of the day the impact will be extremely minimal in changing the likelihood of a show being renewed or cancelled.
ReplyDeleteHope Beauty and the Beast is renewed, same as Reign and the tomorrow people.
ReplyDeleteIt seems like I have to thank you once again for stopping by ;) Hope you are enjoying them all! Well, I think it is unlikely that Beauty and the Beast is renewed honestly ,for the reasons stated above. I don't however think it's impossible, for the reasons explained above. As for Reign and TTP, I think it comes down to Spring ratings honestly.
ReplyDeleteAnd as the other networks slip in ratings the gap between the CW and them grows less. I mean we are no where near competitive, but more and more shows on the big four are reaching what commentators call CW levels. They get canceled on the big four, but it's no longer a shock when the occasional CW show comes in 4th or even 3rd in the demographic and it's becoming more common for shows like Arrow, TVD, Supernatural and TO to have better demographic ratings than shows on the large networks even when they aren't in direct competition.
ReplyDeleteMany years ago I thought that if the CW could hold steady or go up little by little they could end up being somewhat more competitive as the shows on other networks continue to slide.
Yes, of course. The correct way to measure a network's competitiveness is adjust it by the overall average. http://www.spottedratings.com/p/a18-49-index.html Spot explains it pretty well there ;)
ReplyDeleteIt seems amazing to me how Beauty and the Beast can have such a fan base and such low ratings but I'm more interested in Reign and The Tomorrow People, so we'll see.
ReplyDeleteYeah I thought I remember reading that somewhere. Thanks.
ReplyDeleteWhat do you think CW will do for their midseason schedule?
ReplyDeleteYes, that summer possibility is something I've contemplated including in the article but I am not sure the cw has the means to produce original scripted series in the summer. It's also doubtful the ratings would be better than the reality shows they have there. I think that if they really want to carry BATB to syndication, they should throw it on Fridays at 9 instead of a second newbie, but I don't know how the syndication economics work on this particular case, it's too specific for me to make a call.
ReplyDeleteHey there. Thank you for reading and commenting. I have never watched Reign but I like The Tomorrow People a lot (even if I was a bit bummed with the last couple of episodes) so I hope it gets the renewal instead. I do however think that once The 100 debuts, that will be the show I will be rooting for, so is is all very unstable lol.
ReplyDeleteThank you for reading ;) The Tomorrow People, which I also watch and hope turns it around, is the only one in question out of those shows, the others will be renewed. By the way, those are also the CW shows that I watch (and Nikita)
ReplyDeleteTo be honest, I have no idea. I think it depends on how much they like their midseason shows. It could be that they are serious about them and willing to move shows around for them or it could be that they are DOA and they will just burn them off in available slots a la Cult. I think they should launch one Mondays at 8pm bumping Hod to 9pm Mondays and Beauty to 9pm Fridays and another one out of either Arrow or TVD, sending one of the bubble shows to Fridays at 8pm. But I am not sure how they will go about this. The big move would be to something like The 100/Supernatural, The Originals/ Star Crossed leaving TTP and Reign with their current lead-ins but I think there is too much risk in there in messing with Tuesdays so soon. I wouldn't do that and I don't think the CW will either.
ReplyDeleteThank you for the kind words ;)
ReplyDeleteThank you for reading and for the kind words! I am glad you liked it!
ReplyDeleteI would say to you though that if you ever do decide to give TTP another chance that episode 3, which focuses on Cara, was fantastic. Episodes 3 and onwards were significant improvements over the first two episodes.
ReplyDeleteI agree with that, I think the CW generally suffers from lower sampling when compared to the other nets. I think even with the other networks this is more or less true. I doubt we would ever see a CBS comedy for instance debut at the levels that NBC comedies do. But yeah, the effect is greatest when it comes to the cw, I agree.
ReplyDeleteThanks for reading! Your show definitely looks safe ;)
ReplyDeleteVery interesting analysis, thank you !
ReplyDeleteI defenitely prefer Reign than Tomorrow People. I think Reign has a lot of writing possibilities and I find Tomorrow People boring.
ReplyDeleteWatched 2 epiosdes of TTP to give it a shot, especially because I'm a huge Arrow fan, but after that I stopped cause I didn't find anything that would keep my attention focused on the show.
With Reign it was complete opposite, I didn't think I would find it interesting, I actually started watching it from episode 3 and then went back to the begining and I was hoocked!!!
I am sorry, this is the correct link: http://www.spoilertv.com/search/label/Cable%20Guide
ReplyDeleteHey there. Thank you for reading and for your comment. No, unfortunately I don't have any knowledge about the cable business model to venture into those type of analysis. But there is someone else who does them here on spoiler tv. Here you go: http://www.spoilertv.com/search/label/Cable%20Guidev
ReplyDeleteI can tell you put a lot of time and work into this. Thanks for the rundown. The CW is quite an interesting network. I know some think they have no shot of going beyond 2015, but they have turned themselves around somewhat the past two seasons.
ReplyDeleteThought so, just a bit frustrated about the slow German market (at least Arrow is on TV). Since German Networks buy package deals we never no what will make it to Screen and what not. So there probably is no influence at all. But it is estimated that the German Networks spend aprox. 400 Mio. per year on US Shows. This number was estimated from an offical on tv.
ReplyDeleteBTW an example for German numbers: Arrow has 2.2 Mio viewers (last week) and 10,3% (14-49yrs) Season 1. Supernatural Season 7 had about 0.6 mio viewers and 6% (14-49yrs) airing three episodes in a row on friday nights
EDT: I am watching Arrow on German screen while writing this (S1E11Trust But Verify)
It's obvious from reading that you prefer TTP over Reign.You have Reign at the bottom of the Tier with .7 and TTP at the top with .6.From what i heard Reign sold well overseas and it is cheaper to make now since moving to Canada.The Cw has a couple of male skewed shows that they are developing so that can easily make TTP renewal less likely.With the The 100,Flash and super hero pilots in production,TTP will be cancelled. .6 demo,expensive effects and not doing well in younger demos will definitely affect it.TTP have decline and have not risen even if arrow rose to 1.2.TTP numbers: .9,.8,.7,.6,.6,.6,.6.Even though Reign started out later,it didn't decline as much as TTP. .8,.6,.6,.6,.7,.7.Reign definitely has the edge as it doing good among younger demos which sells and has been increasing in viewers every week.Alot of Male skewing shows in development doesn't look good for the show
ReplyDeleteThank you for reading and for the kind words. I agree that the cw is interesting. I think the cw has a shot of going beyond 2015. The fact that they can finish this season up while the other networks continue to decline at a steady rate certainly helps. If they could score nice syndication deals for TVD, Arrow and HoD, that would also help. I think it's feasible that they stick around. I certainly hope so.
ReplyDeleteI think the CW offers some of the best series. You never know which direction any episode is going unlike - say - Blue Bloods standard stuff. You all should watch Supernatural. It's really well acted, expensive looking special effects and very very compelling stories. You'll laugh, you'll cry, you'll be spooked. There's a reason it's lasted nine years. Check it out.
ReplyDeleteGreat article, thanks and congrats :) I totally agree.
ReplyDeleteIf Supernatural and The Originals will continue this way, they will be separated, so one will have the chance to improve monday nights. I'd go with Supernatural+its spin off(if ordered).
I love The CW and I 'only' need Arrow, Supernatural, The Vampire Diaries, The Originals, Reign, The Tomorrow People, Hart of Dixie, Beauty and The Beast, The Carrie Diaries and I will probably like The 100 and Star-Crossed, too, so next April-May-June, I will be sad anyway u_u
I started to like Nikita, too, but despite the low ratings, it will have a series finale, so I can say I'm happy about that.
For the moment I know I shouldn't be worried about The Vampire Diaries, Arrow, The Originals and Supernatural, but I am about The Tomorrow People and Reign, while Beauty and The Beast will be most likely cancelled and Hart of Dixie and The Carrie Diaries have still some hope.
Anyway, can't wait to know Star-Crossed and The 100's premiere dates and slots :)
Thank you for reading and commenting. In answering to your question, Beauty and the Beast has showed that it doesn't have a large enough audience of its own. Roughly 40% of its previous 18-49 audience seemed to watch it solely because it was on after The Vampire Diaries, which means it was highly lead-in dependent. This year, it was asked to survive based on its own audience, since logically the TVD lead in was needed for a new show. Obviously, this audience that it has by itself is too small. It's not impossible for it to survive as I explained above, but it's unlikely because ratings are simply very small. You can always hope things improve.
ReplyDeleteThe tables are sorted alphabetically.
ReplyDeleteThanks for your work again! As always, it's great. And written in a very interesting, clear way. :)
ReplyDeleteAlso, you're right. As a fan of SPN I am very proud of it! Also glad that my other shows are looking good here.
I'm just still undecided about TTP/Reign. I started watched TTP, it was fun for a few episodes, but introducing the triangle, and in a really awful way (cheating), made me stop watching now. We'll see. On the other hand, I'm actually hearing good things about Reign (despite the traingle, lol), so I'm waiting to see if the show will survive the season and still be good.
I don't watch CW shows, but it's always great to know what's happening in the rest of the TV world :D Thank you!
ReplyDeleteLike I said, that's certainly possible, but I am not willing to bet on it being reasonable. I think the Nikita situation was an extreme one because the absolute ratings were absolutely horrible so I am not willing to bet that the same thing will happen again. I don't think it's unfeasible that they keep ANTM entirely for the summer and air a second renewed newbie on a Friday but I am just not sure how incentives for that would work. I am especially unconvinced that it would be more profitable for them to renew something like The Tomorrow People for a Friday second season than it would be to carry Beauty and the Beast to a third season.
ReplyDeleteYou're surprised about the ratings and the loud fandom. The ratings only come from Nielsen households (which is an outdated system IMO) and they clearly do not watch BatB. The fandom is international and that explains the loudness and they like it. I'm an international fan too and can't help the ratings go up. We can only support the show on social media. The 2nd season is so well written and the acting (especially Jay Ryan, he portrays a totally different character this season) is great. It deserves more recognition IMO.
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