Hey everyone.
I am back with some more ratings analysis. Today, it’s time for CBS dramas!
Before I start, just a quick note: I consider a Friday factor of about 25% for all shows airing on Fridays. This number is a result of a look at past renewal and cancellation decisions for the last 4 seasons – while some argue that the number is too low (I have seen many using 30%) and some say it is too high (some people say it’s more 15-20%), I found that this is the number that best explains the past decisions from networks when it comes to Friday shows. In any case, even if you believe the number is slightly inflated or deflated, I think that is unlikely to make a meaningful difference, especially because Friday shows are mostly often subject to syndication economies, whose importance will be far higher than these small difference. I may revise this again in the future if I find enough compelling evidence to do so. For the time being, please keep in mind that all numbers (including the overall average and, therefore, the % ratings for each show) will be calculated using this factor!
The 11 dramas that CBS currently airs averaging about a 1.9 in its most recent airings. The breakdown of these shows here is far less clear than it was for the ABC shows last week, but I still think it is safe to divide them into 5 tiers, taking into account its ratings, syndication and number of episodes. Here’s a look at them (note: relative order within each tier is random):
Tier 1:
- NCIS
Syndication: Yes
Production Company: CBS
Ratings Average: 3.00 (160%)
NCIS is the highest rated CBS drama and will most likely end the year the highest rated broadcast drama in general. That’s a very impressive accomplishment! When a show is in a situation like this, performing at 160% (!) of its comparable average, there is really not much to say here. Certainly the costs are higher than average now because the show is old and contracts have been renegotiated often, but I am sure it also has enough syndication deals generating revenue to offset that to, at least, some extent. It is a lock to be renewed.
- NCIS : Los Angeles
Syndication: Yes
Production Company: CBS
Ratings Average: 2.50 (130%)
The NCIS spinoff is another lock for a renewal from CBS drama stable. Three main reasons: it performs at 130% of its comparable average, which is almost always a renewal; it is not old enough for costs to be a serious problem; it has one of the highest syndication deals I've seen mention of, scoring an hefty $2,200,000 per episode from USA for each episode produced.
The real story about this show is whether or not CBS will ever break its pairing with the mothership. For me, I never felt that CBS had a compelling reason to do so in the various years in which they've done NCIS-NCIS LA-New Show. NCIS is not that higher-rated than LA that we should believe there would be a very meaningful difference between the lead-in effect of NCIS and NCIS-LA for the new show and LA could easily be hurt if the new show flopped, creating a negative net result for CBS. However, I think this year it is different because CBS is out of places to launch new dramas and the LA lead-in is not even available anymore since it was taken by POI. I think CBS would be better served by doing NCIS-Intelligence-POI come spring and sending LA to patch the Monday at 10pm problem. If LA could perform at Castle levels on Mondays while freeing its spot for Intelligence to pull something like mid 2s, I think that would be a big win (the Intelligence-POI pairing could also maybe help POI). Sending a new show to the 10pm Monday slot with an incompatible and low rated lead-in while competing with an established procedural and a Voice-fueled mega-hit of the season is not giving it the best chance of succeeding. I think the only way CBS actually goes for this is if Intelligence pulls exceptional numbers on its Tuesday tryout, and I am not holding my breath. Regardless, and coming back to the topic, NCIS: Los Angeles is dead certain to be renewed!
- Person of Interest
Syndication: No
Production Company: Not CBS
Ratings Average: 1.90(100%)
Person of Interest is another case, like Once Upon a Time, in which not only is the show one season away from syndication, but it also has ratings that, even if disappointing for some, are still at a level more than enough to guarantee its renewal. This is the perfect combination of factors for any show.
Most people feel CBS was wrong in moving the show. I don’t want to get too much into the whole comedy expansion thing today but I believe CBS was right for trying it – the fact that it doesn’t appear to be successful is another story. Regardless, POI’s ratings are not even that fall from where they would likely be on Thursday. I think most people are deluding themselves into thinking that if it was on Thursday, it would pull the ratings it was pulling last fall. There is no evidence of such thing. Most (if not all) CBS procedurals come to fall pulling ratings that (except for the premiere) are pretty much in line with what they were pulling in May Sweeps from the previous season. POI posted three consecutive 2.4s at the end of last season. So, most likely, the Thursday numbers would look like something between 2.3-2.6. While that is a bit better than what the comedies are doing there and a bit better than what the show is doing now on Tuesdays, it is not that much better like some people make it out to be. The comedy expansion may not have been that successful but it is far from being the failure that people trot it out to be. That doesn’t mean I would have moved POI to where it is; my ideal move was one in which it was given the Wednesdays at 8 slot followed by Intelligence with CM sliding to 10pm (using Survivor and CSI on Sundays and Fridays, respectively), but I can still appreciate the rationale from the move that they did and say that I don’t see evidence of it being a failure. Regardless, and because I am way off topic right now, the show is as much of a lock for a renewal as it ever gets.
- Criminal Minds
Syndication: Yes
Production Company: CBS
Ratings Average: 2.50 (130%)
Criminal Minds is another show whose ratings level, at 130% of its comparable level, leave no doubt about its future. Networks simply do not cancel shows performing at such level, especially shows that also have the advantage of generating extra revenue through syndication. I do believe that what will eventually doom this show are its costs, but we are still at least a season away from that. This year, in particular, I am not even compelled to put the show in Tier 2 (like I did with Grey’s Anatomy last week which is basically in the same situation) because (unlike Grey's) the show renegotiated its contracts last year reportedly for two more seasons, meaning that this should be an “easy renewal” year. Beyond that, I admit that it is possible that the relative ratings changes enough for the cost considerations to take over, but we are still far from that and I am still not in business of predicting what will happen in two years. For this year, the show is an absolute certain renewal!
Tier 2:
- CSI
Syndication: Yes
Production Company: CBS
Ratings Average: 1.80 (95%)
The old, very old CSI just keeps hanging. Its current ratings level, 95 of comparable average, is a level that normally indicates renewal for any show and this is no different. There is certainly the issue of how costly it has gotten by this point, but I have two important counter arguments for that: 1) I don’t watch the show but from what I understand, it has done a pretty good job at rotating its cast, which is normally one of the best strategies to guarantee that its costs don’t go through the roof (even if in this particular case, it seems that they’ve hired actors that don’t exactly come cheap either) and, most importantly, 2) the show has enough syndication deals to likely counter balance all that. I wouldn’t be surprised if the syndication deals that the show have are enough to cover for all the production costs and that whatever revenues CBS makes from the ads go directly to profit. I don’t, however, have the concrete information to back all of this up as much as I would like here, which is why I’ve put the show in the second tier. But that’s still an absolute certain renewal, especially because even if ratings decline, I have a very hard time imagining that CBS doesn’t use this iconic show at least for one season on its Friday/Sunday schedules.
- Elementary
Syndication: No
Production Company: CBS
Ratings Average: 1.70 (90%)
So far, it has all been easy predictions. Elementary is probably where the real uncertainty begins. The reason I am predicting it to be renewed is because the show is still performing at a respectable ratings level, 90%, that is likely to provide CBS with enough incentive to carry it to syndication. A lot of people are disappointed with its ratings this year, but to be honest, except for that 1.50 a few weeks ago, I am actually impressed, as I thought it would be doing worse than it is. The show has found itself in a very unfavorable position, airing at 10pm out of a low rated and incompatible lead-in, against one of the highest rated dramas of television and against a somewhat also respectable for its standards NBC option. Given this, I think it’s still holding its own. I don’t think these type of considerations usually play a major role when networks decide when renewing or canceling a show, but I still think they are worth looking at to some extent (particularly because this is a highly DVRed show, which could translate in higher than average C3 gains). Anyway, my point is that as long as Elementary’s ratings remain north of 90%, the show will be renewed, especially because CBS has bigger fish to fry elsewhere in a big way and because I don’t expect them to need to free up that many hours for next season. I am not dead certain on it being able to keep these higher than 85% ratings, but I think there is at least decent chance it does, so I am still going with a very likely renewal.
- Hawaii Five-0
Syndication: Yes
Production Company: CBS
Ratings Average: 1.80 (95%)
Hawaii Five-0 currently sits at 95% of CBS’s drama average, which is perfectly fine for a renewal (80% without Friday factor). I realize that most people view it has a bubble show but I believe Hawaii Five-0 has some things going for it that I think can justify the renewal prediction. For starters, the 95% ratings level is still more than good enough for a renewal in most cases, baring problems with costs, which is not the case given the show’s age. Most importantly, Hawaii Five-0 is a show approaching the 100 episodes (which is a great area to be, because it is that best of two worlds area in which the costs still haven’t escalated, mostly because contracts haven’t been renegotiated yet, but the shows are already reaping revenues from syndication) and is the show currently on air with the highest value for a syndication deal that I could find mention. The show scores $2,500,000 (!!) for each additional episode from TNT, which if I had to guess, I would say is probably enough to cover the costs of the show by itself. I think it’s unlikely that the contract with TNT includes any clause to change the value of an episode before 100 episodes have been sold (as that’s usual the threshold to do so), so I don't really care for the somehow soft ratings it's been getting in syndication. So: a perfectly acceptable ratings level, a new timeslot this season, proximity with 100 episodes, costs not through the rough and the largest syndication deal in network TV means that, for now, I feel safe declaring it likely renewal.
Tier 3
Tier 3 is made of two shows whose situation is a bit interdependent, so I will make a short introduction of each and then address their fates together.
- The Good Wife
Syndication: Yes
Production Company: CBS
Ratings Average: 1.60 (85%)
The Good Wife is currently airing its fifth season on Sundays, at a ratings level that is one of a bubble show (the 85% are a bit inflated here because the most recent airings have been very positive for the show, but I think that has more to do with football overruns than anything, so I would view this more as a 75-80% kind of performer). The show, which has already passed the 100 episode barrier, has however a very lucrative syndication deal, scoring an impressive $2,000,000 per episode (this is one of the highest syndication deals around, and certainly the higehst if someone looks at value of syndication/ratings). This means that any additional episodes will get these additional revenues (assuming the same type of deal is in place for a possible Season 6, which is likely considering the deal was made only last year).
- Blue Bloods
Syndication: No deal yet, but sure to come
Production Company: CBS
Ratings Average: 1.60 (85%)
Blue Bloods is now performing at about 85% of CBS’s drama average (70% sans Friday factor). Like for The Good Wife, this is a level that typically indicates bubble, which is why looking at other factors is important. Blue Bloods will finish the season with 88 episodes, which means CBS is absolutely certain to score it a nice syndication deal. The question, however, is how nice that is? While CBS is known to be a deadly effective syndication deal, I am not sure if they will be able to replicate the extraordinary feat that was pulling that syndication deal for The Good Wife. While adding additional episodes for syndication is always a good thing (especially when, as explained for H50, the show isn’t seeing costs increases yet), there may not be room on schedule for both.
What to make of the situation of these two shows then? Basically, I think it comes down to two questions:
- is there space to keep them both on schedule? For me, the anwer to this question depends on whether or not Intelligence succeeds. If Intelligence fails, then I expect CBS to cancel the Mentalist, move a veteran to Sundays (Survivor, CSI or Elementary) and premiere two new dramas Mondays at 10 and on the slot from the moved veteran. If Intelligence works, then CBS has to cancel a second veteran and that's when it comes down to Blue Bloods or The Good Wife. Remember, CBS usually premieres 3/3.5 hours of new programming and they are certain to premiere 2/3 new comedies. That leaves them with room for two new dramas. There other situations that can change this slightly, such as: if the comedy hours are reduced, then both bubble shows are likely to be kept; if they really want to launch a 3rd new drama, I would expect them to simply hold Undercover Boss again instead of cancelling both bubble dramas and walk away from all that syndication money. So far though, I don't reason to predict either of these things, so I am sticking with the status quo and saying that it comes down to Intelligence only.
- which show would be saved in case there is only room for one? Right now, I don’t feel confident going either way. However, if I had to make a guess, I would say The Good Wife would be kept. Provided that relative ratings remain on the same area, I think The Good Wife has the edge for two reasons: 1) I don’t think CBS can put together such a lucrative deal for Blue Bloods as they did for The Good Wife, which means additional episodes from The Good Wife would be more profitable than additional episodes from Blue Bloods and 2) I think CBS will cancel The Mentalist (more on that below), which means they will already have a hole on the Sunday schedule. I find it improbable that they would like to move two established shows to Sundays at once, it does not appear to be CBS's MO! However, these arguments assume that The Good Wife is able to hold some sort of ratings advantage to Blue Bloods in raw numbers and that the syndication economies of both deals go as I’ve predicted, neither of which are certain. So I am really walking away from any prediction right now.
Tier 4
- The Mentalist
Syndication: Yes
Production Company: Not CBS
Ratings Average: 1.30 (70%)
The Mentalist is a veteran show now performing at 70% of CBS’s average. Fans of the show will likely argue that the show has to air on a terrible situation. I will agree, but I will note that CBS won’t care for that most likely. 70% typically indicates low end bubble or even likely cancellation and, in the case of The Mentalist, I think it’s the later. The show faces the uphill battle of being the only non CBS owned show fighting for survival – all the other shows in close ratings vicinity (and it’s not even THAT close) are owned by CBS, which means that CBS gets all the syndication money back to compensate them for the lower ratings. I am certain that WB was able to reduce the licensee fee of the show enough to make it attractive for CBS to air the show until now; but WB was probably only interested in doing that to have the show produce 100 episodes. Once it has been fully syndicated and its costs start to escalate, I doubt WB has an incentive to do that because they would have to rely entirely on the benefit of producing additional episodes to cover their producing losses, since CBS gets all the ads money. I don’t see it happening. Could CBS keep all its veterans? It’s not totally impossible I suppose. If Intelligence does tank and if they are forced to reduce their comedy hours, that would give them two spots to premiere new dramas already. But I am not ready to predict those two things yet (the lowest rated hour of comedies is still higher rated than the lowest rated dramas, by far). There is a chance, but it is a slim one. Therefore, for now, I am predicting The Mentalist to be cancelled.
Tier 5
- Hostages
Syndication: No
Production Company: Not CBS
Ratings Average: 1.10 (60%)
As with Betrayal in the ABC post, there’s really nothing to say here. Freshman shows performing at 60% of its comparable average have no chance at all of coming back. Hostages was a disappointment ratings wise ever since its premiere and it is actually surprising that CBS will let it air out all of its order. CBS has schedule the date for its season finale already, but they might as well have called it series finale. It’s dead certain to be cancelled!
So, to sum it up, here is how predictions stand:
Blue Bloods – To be determined
Criminal Minds– To be renewed
CSI – To be renewed
Elementary – To be renewed
Hawaii Five-0 – To be renewed
Hostages– To be cancelled
NCIS – To be renewed
NCIS: Los Angeles – To be renewed
Person of Interest– – To be renewed
The Good Wife – To be determined
The Mentalist – To be cancelled
Thanks for reading and I apologize for the big article this week, but CBS has a lot of dramas and I wanted to avoid doing very obvious points on shows like POI or NCIS LA, so it ended up a bit longer than I wanted! Sorry about that!
Tracking Table:
Previous Articles:
State of ABC Dramas
ABC Sundays
Renewals and Cancellations Decisions and TV Numbers 101 [FAQ]
Aww poor Mentalist :( One of my favourites. Still, if it has to go, this season is as good a time as any.
ReplyDeleteHostages will be cancelled but it has 15 episode not 13
ReplyDeleteThanks, it's been corrected!
ReplyDeleteSorry that you have to see one of your favorites go. I don't watch The Mentalist, but from what I understand it's being given closure this season, so it may not be that bad of a season for it to go anyway.
ReplyDeletefinally understand why CBS moved the Mentalist to 10pm Sunday night and why there was less promotion on TM than other shows....no wonder it's killing it in different ways, because TM's non CBS owned show....:( I really hope the Mentalist can have season 7. Even RJ case ends, watching those people on TV is always enjoyable. It's a part of my life now.
ReplyDeleteif CBS cancels it, is it possible that other channels (like TBS) will buy it?
You give a 25% Friday Factor but don't give any percentage for sunday when The Mentalist goes up against football that draws 20-22 million fans and gets the show either postponed or pushed back on the east coast causing the ratings to be lower. Did CBS purposely destroy this show because it sure seems to be the case.
ReplyDeleteYou're doing a great job, but it still hurts me to see The Mentalist on the "to be cancelled" list, even though I'm well aware of the show's situation.
ReplyDeleteAwesome! Very interesting, thanks for the article. Something you have to correct though: You wrote in your summation that The Good Wife is «to be renewed», I think you mean «to be determined». Otherwise, great article.
ReplyDeleteGreat analysis.
ReplyDeleteI'm hoping Scandal's winter hiatus helps Elementary average a tenth or two better. Any little bit would help with all the shows so close.
A bit disappointed to see CSI as a certain renewal. I was a huge fan, but the show is just so flat and dull. I'd rather see it end.
Thanks for reading and I am glad the article helped clarifying that up for you. Indeed, The Mentalist's treatment may have to do with it not being owned by CBS, but to be honest, CSI Miami was put in the exact same spot before and that one was owned by CBS. It comes down to which shows CBS thinks it can extract more profit from long term. As for your question, I don't see any other channel buying it because I don't see why WB, which produces it, would have an incentive to lower the licensee fee enough for it to become attractive to those channels. There is always the chance, of course, one cannot 100% disregard it, but I think it's unlikely. I would bet first on it sticking around CBS for one more year than on it being picked up by another channel, and I don't believe it will stick around CBS, so I am afraid it's not very good news for you :S
ReplyDeleteI think it will come down to what the Mentalist does post Red John and with the loss of 2 leads. If they have an interesting story to tell I would love one more season, otherwise I would settle for a great end to this season which ties everything up. I hope the team there have considered the potential cancellation and have an ending in mind, I would hate to be left without answers like some of my previous favourites.
ReplyDeleteThanks for reading and commenting. On to your point, I've toyed around with the idea of a Sunday factor before but the reality is that I found no evidence in past years of CBS considering the existence of one. While I agree that its ratings are deflated by the unfortunate circumstances in which it airs, I see no evidence that CBS weights that differently when renewing a show. It certainly didn't consider so when deciding between CSI Miami (Sunday) and CSI NY (Friday) two years ago. Besides, even if you wanted to reduce my Friday Factor, Blue Bloods is 70% sans Friday Factor, which is the same as The Mentalist and I am pretty sure CBS is more lenient towards its Friday show Blue Bloods than to Sunday The Mentalist. The gap may not be as big as my numbers suggest, but I am fairly certain it's still big.
ReplyDeleteThank you. I know how painful it is to have our shows likely to be cancelled. I am afraid it's just the way TV works. The situation can always change of course, but I don't think it's likely in this particular case, baring a huge comedy implosion.
ReplyDeleteThank you very much, I am glad you enjoyed the article and found it interesting! And you're totally right, that was a typo. Thanks for calling my attention to that, it's been rectified!
ReplyDeleteThank you, glad you enjoyed it. Yes, Elementary should benefit a bit from Scandal's hiatus, especially because it seems that ABC has nothing better than repeats to plug in there. I am not however sure for how long that will last because I don't expect CBS to air originals in February against the Olympics either. We shall see. As for CSI, I don't watch the show regularly (I have caught some random episodes though, as everyone in the world I think), so I can't comment on that.
ReplyDeleteThanks for reading and commenting. I don't see The Mentalist having the strength to pull ahead of The Good Wife and Blue Bloods. I think that even if the ratings are the same or a bit better % wise, it will still be cancelled because it's not CBS owned and is fighting with a show with a huge syndication deal and another one which is about to get a syndication deal and is still cheap enough. I hope you get your ending though, it sucks to be left without one.
ReplyDeleteI'm one of those that's disappointed by PoI's numbers - how do people not LOVE this show?! Ultimately though, I care only that its ratings are good enough to ensure renewal. And every site I've checked says they are. Woohoo!
ReplyDeleteHowever, I thought PoI had been purchased for syndication by WGN? Or do you mean it's not currently airing in syndication?
Hoping Intelligence is given a slot that will give it a fair shot. I keep hearing great things about Elementary. Although I really liked the Pilot it was on so late I had a hard time keeping up with it (PoI is killing me this season). It's on my list of things to try out on a cold winter day. The character dynamic in the Ads is very appealing - I hope it does well. I love quirky characters.
I quit watching The Mentalist a year ago. I got really sick of Red John hanging over everything (imo they carried that storyline on for far too long - 3 seasons is more than enough for any singular bad guy). If they close that off and renew next year ... I might tune in again.
Well I hope The Good Wife continues, this season has been its strongest yet and other than Elementary the only CBS show I care for.
ReplyDeleteOn NCIS - 256-258 so that means season 12 will bring the show to about 300 episodes, correct? If so then no way in hell will CBS pass that up.
ReplyDeleteThis was good to read..
ReplyDeleteHere's hoping Elementary gets renewed, its one of my favorites. Wonderful acting by Johny Lee Miller & Lucy Liu plus a really interesting storyline..
Happy to see OUAT, Scandal, Castle, Revenge in the 'to be renewed' column too.
I wonder if Grey's should get renewed though..I love the show, but this season has been pretty disappointing for me, except for last week's Callie-centric episode which was really good. This season has had plots that are all over the place.. If they renew it, I hope they don't make it worse..
Also, Hostages has been the biggest letdown of this season. Had such high hopes from it before it premiered..
I hope The Good Wife isn't cancelled I just started watching it lol
ReplyDeleteThe character interplay on Elementary is just a joy, really. It's rare I fall in love with fake people to this extent, but Jonny Lee Miller and Lucy Liu are magic together.
ReplyDeleteYeah that's what I mean :) It's good that it's getting its chance to give the fans closure. Would have been terrible if they cancelled it last year!!
ReplyDeleteCBS wouldn't pass on NCIS either, 300 episodes or not.
ReplyDeleteJust a correction, Person of Interest already has a syndication deal from the WGN network, that was signed before Season 3 aired its first episode (http://www.deadline.com/2013/10/wgn-america-lands-off-network-rights-to-warner-bros-person-of-interest/)
ReplyDeleteI still dont understand why Person of Interest numbers for each month seem to disappoint some viewers/critics. Their live numbers are consistently above 12 million viewers and then the LIVE+7 usually adds another 3-5 million viewers. That is amazing to me.
Because no one cares for viewership, but the network's PR machines.
ReplyDeleteA good read as always! I agree with everything your saying,i just hope Elementary picks up a bit more.I would hate losing TWG or Blue Bloods....
ReplyDeleteHey there. Thanks for reading and commenting. Regarding POI, I understand that we always want the best ratings for our show (and I love POI too), but I don't think the numbers are that disappointing comparing to what it would probably be doing on Thursdays IMO. My syndication point is meant to answer whether or not the show has enough episodes (~88) at the end of the current season to air in off-net syndication. POI does have a deal, yes, but it's currently still one season away from that so it's listed as a No.
ReplyDeleteAs for your comments about Elementary and The Mentalist, I don't watch any of them so I can't comment on that I am afraid!
Thanks for reading! I too hope that The Good Wife can get a final season next year. I think it's the type of show that would benefit from an announced final season though, although I am not sure CBS would do that. We shall see. Right now, as I've said, I think it sits squarely on the bubble. Oh, and I agree that this season has been the strongest one so far.
ReplyDeleteWell that it was I was alluding to. People keep making the assumptions that the network might be disappointed in their numbers since moving, but I do not see any indication of that. CBS just made the season 23 episodes for this year also.
ReplyDeleteThanks for reading! Well technically no. It will have 258 episodes at the end of the season so one more season (12) would put it at 282, which is still not 300. Regardless, there is still no way CBS passes on it, no chance.
ReplyDeleteExactly
ReplyDeleteThanks for reading and I am glad you liked it! Well, I don't watch Elementary so I can't comment on that. Regarding Grey's, I still enjoy it, so I am fine with it continuing. It's not what it once was but it still provides solid drama every week, I enjoy almost all episodes. I didn't like one episode so far, which was the episode before the Callie centric one, but other than that I've been enjoying it. I do agree that they have too many plots at once which prevents more emotional connection but I still like it. Regardless, Grey's will be renewed.
ReplyDeleteYou are in for quite a ride then! The worst part of the show for me is the early season 4 (and the early season 3 is a bit strange too). Other than that, it's incredible. Season 5 has been the best so far. Thanks for reading!
ReplyDeleteThank you for reading and commenting. On to your points:
ReplyDelete- I should have clarified yet but the "Syndication" thing I have is supposed to say whether or not the show currently has enough episodes for syndication (~88) at the end of the current season and whether or not it has a deal. POI has a deal but has not enough episodes yet so it's marked as a No. I will clarify that in future articles.
- As for the numbers, total viewers are 100% irrelevant, don't judge a show's success or lack of it based on it.
Even though you have the wrong argument to it (total viewers, which is meaningless), I agree that POI's numbers are not disappointing. People keep making year to year comparisons with last fall which is not reasonable since it had already declined in Spring. I think it's matching CBS's expectations.
ReplyDeleteThank you for reading and for the kind words. Personally, I am rooting for The Good Wife too but I am also hoping that Intelligence is good and that it makes it, so Blue Bloods going is kind of my ideal scenario. I wouldn't bet against it though, I think it's more likely that Intelligence flops and CBS simply does away with with The Mentalist and keeps both bubble shows.
ReplyDeleteThanks for this article! I was hoping you'd have done the same analysis for CBS drama, and here it goes!
ReplyDeleteI understand The Mentalist situation, but I'm still hoping for the best... In your opinion, does WB give credit to the promotion outside the USA? i mean, I'm italian, and The Mentalist is one of the shows most watched in my country.
Thank you for replying to each comment - That is top notch right there.
ReplyDeleteTotal viewers VS 18-49 demographics:
I think that is what confuses people about TV Shows, we see the shows like POI get over 10 million viewers a night and think that is amazing, but the key demographics is what is the indicator is.
How much LIVE +7 and LIVE +30 comes into play for a show to get renewed or not ?
Thank you. I am glad you found it useful and you enjoyed the article. I think we should always hope for the best with our shows even when it doesn't look very good, as is the case here. As for international sales, my opinion is that they are usually too small to make a meaningful difference. The fact is that, because international channels usually don't produce their own series like the US for the most part, they don't have the means to pay a lot for those imported series - the size/ dimension of the markets is simply too low for that. So while nice to have, ultimately it is unlikely to make a big difference in my opinion. For example, Body of Proof was cancelled last season despite reported solid international sales (per deadline). I think they are nice to have, but I don't think they can make a meaningful impact when all is said and done, unless the show really is an international powerhouse like CSI.
ReplyDeleteNo problem.
ReplyDeleteI wrote an article a few weeks ago explaining precisely all that: why is it that 18-49 is what matters and in which way DVR numbers contribute to a show's renewal prospects. I would recommend you to read it. If you still have questions afterwards, feel free to ask me: http://www.spoilertv.com/2013/10/renewals-and-cancellations-decisions.html
Thank you very, very much for another fantastic article! I don't watch a lot of CBS shows, but I read this article anyway, because whatever you write is always interesting and explains a lot :) Looking forward to your next article! Do we really have to wait SEVEN days for it? Haha, that's gonna be tough :p
ReplyDeleteI understand. I agree, I'm still positive but realistic, anyway it's too early to tell, so let's wait and see ;) thanks for the explanation! :)
ReplyDeleteThank you a lot for those very kind words. It's very rewarding to hear how much you appreciate it, thanks! Ahah I am afraid we have to do this weekly. I don't have enough time to invest in articles with a higher frequency than that and also, we need to have enough topics to cover throughout the year, we don't want to run out of stuff to talk about. Thanks ;)
ReplyDeleteNo problem!
ReplyDeleteOf course, of course. I guess it's just gonna have to be a monday kind of thing, and I could definitely use that :) Well I'll be looking forward to them all as always. Can you maybe spoil which network you will tackle next week? If you're even gonna do this sort of article again :)
ReplyDeleteI will venture myself in the very hard waters of the CW ahah. Let's see how that goes! Thank you again for the great feedback!
ReplyDeleteThat was EXACTLY what I wanted to hear :D Man, you know how to make my day ;)
ReplyDeleteThat was EXACTLY what I wanted to hear :D Man, you know how to make my day :)
ReplyDeleteAhah thanks. I am afraid the cw is still too much dependent on midseason though, but well, let's see what I can come up with.
ReplyDeleteThat's what I have been trying to say but likely media sites like Zap 2 it say it's undecided but 5 episodes in the numbers just keep going up by 10,000 per week with good reviews with S4 I agree great piece on H50 100% agree
ReplyDeleteThanks you, I am glad you liked it. And yes, I am aware that most sites put H50, Blue Bloods, The Good Wife and The Mentalist on the same boat for renewal contention but I disagree for the reasons stated above. I thought the same way as those sites pre-season but I think the move to Friday has been a mild success, beating the expectations most of us (and I would even say CBS) had. If anything, I think H50 is in the same boat as Elementary and I would even give it the edge there I think, not that there is any chance at all that CBS cancels more than 3 veterans.
ReplyDeleteGreat article. Understanding ratings is always confusing but your analysis was a very interesting and easy reading! Is this the first time you post this analysis? I haven't read any article like this (State of X network dramas) last year. I suppose you're doing all networks. (hope!) Is there something like that for new shows?
ReplyDeleteHey, thanks for reading and for the great comment, I am glad you enjoyed it. This is the forth article I've posted. If you check at the end of the article, I've posted links for the previous articles I've written during the last month. One of them is about State of ABC Dramas. There is one more general about how networks decide about renewals and cancellations as well as how to understand the ratings system. And there is also one addressing the pressing issue of ABC Sundays. I've only started doing it this year, so you won't find these articles for last year, even though there are other ratings materials available on the site since long ago. As for your question about new shows, I am not doing, so far, anything specific on those, but I am incorporating them on the analysis of each network. I may do something on new shows later on though.
ReplyDelete*Checking the links* OMG YOU! You wrote that wonderful Ratings 101.. ohman! *tears of joy* You have no idea how much I've looked this article with no luck. I saw the link on STV twitter (started to read it, but didn't finished) and I thought I had fav-ed to bookmarked, now I found it again so I can finish! :) YES!
ReplyDelete:) Thanks! I am glad you found that article useful! Let me know if you have any questions and thanks for the kind words again!
ReplyDeleteStill hoping for a sm renewal chance. I know TM does very well WW.
ReplyDeleteUgh I was on the same boat but post RJ world spoilers do have me excited. I am torn it is still such good show surprising me.If CBS does give another yr as final I know it will be last because lead's contract was for 7. We will see.
ReplyDeleteI'm hoping Scandal's winter hiatus helps Elementary average a tenth
ReplyDeleteor two better. Any little bit would help with all the shows so close.
Elementary is excellent. If you're watching the show in order but want to jump around, I would recommend Leviathan (1x10) as the first episode where the show has really found itself. But you can honestly drop in at any time. Miller and Liu's characters are in my opinion the best platonic relationship on all of television at the moment.
ReplyDeleteDo you think it's possible that the Good Wife gets a final shortened season of ~13 episodes? I know CBS doesn't typically do this, but TGW is a serialized show that would benefit from that kind of closure. It would bring in more syndication dollars while leaving more room for new dramas. Great article by the way!
ReplyDeleteThanks as always for a great article! At first I thought CBS would choose to renew Blue Bloods instead of The Good Wife, but now I think The Good Wife has more chance to get another season. It might also have the advantage of getting critical acclaim as well as always being nominated for the Emmys. Also, Blue Bloods is a relatively unknown show (my country, The Netherlands, for example doesn't broadcast the show AFAIK).
ReplyDeleteI sure hope Intelligence succeeds. Looking really forward to it!
A slightly unrelated question: where do you think CBS will schedule their midseason shows. They still have two comedies (Friends with Better Lives & Bad Teacher) and one drama (Reckless). But there are zero available spots in their schedule.
Fingers crossed!
ReplyDeleteThank you for the compliment, I am glad you enjoyed it. As for your question, my guess is as good as yours. I don't think CBS is as conservative as people think. They've tried more comedy hours, they have tried summer scripted stuff, they've tried serialized shows in season. So it's possible. But I think it would depend on what would they do with the slot at midseason. They would have to have a midseason drama that they believe is worth launching seriously midweek to justify moving another veteran to Sundays in the middle of the season. I think it's possible but unlikely. I think it's probably a full season or a cancellation (but that's a guess only)
ReplyDeleteMore McDreamy for me in that case, so its ok. I guess I just miss the old Greys!
ReplyDelete"I quit watching The Mentalist a year ago. I got really sick of Red John
ReplyDeletehanging over everything (imo they carried that storyline on for far too
long - 3 seasons is more than enough for any single bad guy). If they
close that off and renew next year ... I might tune in again."
The Red John Arc will end next Sunday. The first post-RJ episode starts on december 1th.
Hey, thanks for the kind words and for reading and taking the time to comment! As for your points:
ReplyDelete- I am a non believer in critical acclaim helping out a show especially this late in its life. I could maybe accept that if a freshman show has tones of critical acclaim and is a bubble show competing with another show with similar ratings it may have the edge in the hopes that the awards make its audience grow a la Modern Family or Homeland but that's about it. I don't believe critical acclaim will help The Good Wife now (unless ratings increase because of it, of course). I do however think that critical acclaim was what led CBS to achieve such an incredible syndication deal for the show, so there was an indirect help in there in my opinion.
- I am also looking forward to Intelligence. Ideally for me, Intelligence and The Good Wife would make it, with Blue Bloods being let go (nothing against the show, it's just that I don't watch it so I would rather see that one go than one my shows)
- As for your question, my answer is: no idea. I would think that they would want to try them post TBBT and post HIMYM if they are serious about them at some point. But I don't see them rushing the order of 2BG or The Millers so I have no clue. I don't put it past them that they try to launch them in the summer. Under the Dome was so so big last year (highest rated new scripted show of the season!!), that I am sure summer will be a bit different than usual. Launching a comedy against no competition in summer after TBBT lead outs could maybe not be such a bad idea. As for Reckless, I don't see how it airs in the regular season unless they finish The Mentalist earlier. Maybe summer paired with Unforgettable? I have no clue.. But it doesn't seem random though, especially because Bad Teacher was ordered after all the other orders were in, so if they went to the trouble of doing it, one would think that they have plans for it.
Survivor will stay put. Its doing exactly the same as NCIS LA (2.5 average) this season without NCIS lead in. Next to that it is cheaper then scripted show and i can only see it air at 8 pm.
ReplyDeleteMentalist is a goner. TGW, BB, H50 all have pro and cons. What could work in BB's favour is that so far its always aired on friday and did well for themselves.
Und. Boss is their best friday show this season, so cannot see them cancelling it.
That would be awesome. I'll make a note ... I'll catch up on all my shows over the Holidays. Then I might be able to squeeze another in =]
ReplyDeleteHey there. Thanks for reading and commenting. As for your comments:
ReplyDelete- Some shows are moved because the shows are doing worse than expected (e.g. H50 this year). Other shows are moved because networks feel they have potential for a higher premium slot (e.g. Revenge last year). There are also shows which are moved simply because their current slot could be better used while the show could help a problematic slot (e.g. POI this year). In these last two types of situations, it has nothing to do with the network being disapointed with the show's ratings, on the contrary! If they were to move Survivor, it would be because 1)It would probably do better on Sundays than pretty much anything else they can put there and 2)Wednesdays at 8 is a good spot to launch a new drama and they are lacking those
- I disagree with putting H50 in that group. I don't think it's in any danger whatsoever. It's now the second week it ties Elementary on Friday in raw numbers and it has that monster syndication deal. It's doing more than fine. In fact, it tied for 6th highest rated CBS drama this week and doing that on a Friday is a big accomplishment.
- I agree that Undercover Boss will not be cancelled. But it could be hold if they really want to premiere 3 new dramas and brought back later. But I don't see it as very likely right now.
I wish Hostages was more of a movie than tv show like one of the previous shows about the wife and father who were secret agents. Yeah, I feel like it should had been a movie or mini series. LOVE the storyline and just hope the last episode will close some of the questions and not leave some hanging wide open.
ReplyDeleteHope The Mentalist is renewed!
ReplyDeleteHey there. I have never watched Hostages so I can't really comment on its quality but I would imagine that the show will have a close ending since it became evidently clear early on that it was not seeing another season. I hope you get a conclusion. Thanks for stopping by!
ReplyDeleteThank you for stopping by also on this one, I hope you enjoyed the read ;) The Mentalist is a very odd case. It has improved 10% in the ratings ever since I wrote the article about a month ago - that's a lot for such a short time span, it's very uncommon. I still want to see more data points of the show with its normal TGW lead-in (the last airing had TAR as lead-in), but if it keeps up I might have to adjust my prediction according to the new data points. I would think that there is at least a tiny chance that one hour of comedies go instead of it. If Intelligence works there is no saving it though, that much I still think it's clear. For now, I still say it's likely to be cancelled, but things are for sure much less certain now than they were when I wrote this.
ReplyDelete