I am back with some more ratings analysis. I still haven’t decided on an exact structure to follow with this, so until I do, I will probably be varying the type of column each week. Today, I am sticking with an analysis of the situation the ABC drama department, looking at renewal and cancellation chances for each show.
So far, their 10 dramas (9 still airing) are averaging about a 2.0 in its most recent airings. Taken into account its ratings, syndication and number of episodes, I feel pretty safe dividing them into 4 tiers as far as their renewal and cancellation chances go. Here’s a look at them (note: relative order within each tier is random):
Tier 1:
- Once Upon a Time
Syndication: No
Production Company: ABC
Ratings Average: 2.20 (110%)
Although the show has fallen from its glory ratings wise (there was a period in which it was systematically in the top 3 broadcast dramas every week), it is still a pretty respectable player for ABC, performing at 110% of its scripted average, at what it is, arguably, ABC’s most troubled night. That’s not something to be taken for granted by any means and the fact is that networks do not cancel shows performing at a higher level than its comparable average in normal situations (certainly not one airing on a day as hard as Sundays). On top of that, and more importantly, the show is one season away from syndication. Both of these mean there is basically no chance that Once Upon a Time does not come back next year!
- Scandal
Syndication: No
Production Company: ABC
Ratings Average: 2.90 (145%)
Scandal currently stands as ABC’s highest rated drama (and #2 show overall). That means that there is no chance ABC could do away with it, even though it is not approaching syndication next season yet. Networks simply do not cancel shows at 145% of its comparable average. One could argue that there is some danger that it suffers later in the season if the buzz winds down as it allegedly happened with OUAT and Revenge. While I do not even accept the notion that this was what happened with the Sunday shows last year (see more on my last week’s post), I say that even if Scandal does fall to something like 120% of its comparable average, it is still more than fine. Hell, it could fall all the way down to 100% and probably still get renewed and I doubt that’s happening anytime soon (it would require it to go to 2.0 or below systematically while all the other dramas miraculously hold or go down). Remember, it’s not the absolute number that matters, but the relative one. Even if Scandal does fall to something like mid 2s in the spring, chances are that ABC’s drama average is on the mid 1s by then, which would still mean Scandal would be at 150%, which, for renewal purposes, it’s all that matters! No chance it does not come back!
Tier 2:
- Grey’s Anatomy
Syndication: Yes
Production Company: ABC
Ratings Average: 2.70(135%)
One of the biggest misconceptions I’ve heard lately about ABC dramas is that Grey’s Anatomy is in its last legs now, that is “barely holding on” and that, because of that, it should be moved. I have two huge problems with this idea: 1) Why would a network move a show that is “barely holding on” as it is, if moving seldom ever can avoid viewers erosion in and by itself? And 2) Where in the world is Grey’s barely holding on? It will likely finish the year as the number 2 ABC drama (and #3 in general) with #1 being its lead-out, which certainly still benefits from its reliable lead-in. I certainly recognize that costs are certainly higher than for a newer show so its profitability may not be all that spectacular (even though Grey’s reportedly does well within 18-34s which would balance this out to some extent), but regardless of that, shows pulling 135% of its comparable average are not barely hanging on, that is a huge misconception right there. Grey’s has also redefined, year after year, the definition of a self-starter show, which needs no lead-in whatsoever to start the night at 9pm, and this year is no different with the show pulling high 2s from the sub 1 levels from Wonderland. Short of contractual issues that blow up or Shonda wanting to end the show, neither of which I have seen any signs, Grey’s Anatomy will certainly be renewed and it is far from “barely hanging on”.
- Marvel’s Agents of Shield
Syndication: No
Production Company: ABC
Ratings Average: 2.70 (135%)
The well hyped ABC newbie is now averaging about 2.70 in most recent airings. Is that enough? It is more than enough – it is, after all, 135% of the average and networks don’t cancel shows in that condition in most cases. Is it disappointing? Maybe, but that really does not matter. Is there cause for future concern? Maybe. The show may not have stabilized yet. However, as I have alerted people before, changes of 0.1 and 0.2 are not really changes due to rounding error and due to the margin of error of the statistical sample being used (not to mention possible changes in C3 later on). This means that I disregard the “drop” it’s had in most of its episodes more than most of you seem to. The show also has another very important advantage on its side: as I’ve explained before, the less a person watches TV, the more advertisers like that person and the more they are willing to pay for him/her. Young men typically watch very little TV, which is why programs such as the FOX cartoons are able to charge so much for its ad-revenues and be so profitable. According to all the ABC bragging, Shield is exactly the type of show that does extremely well with this group, which makes me think it is more profitable than its ratings indicate. So while I would feel better about this if the ratings were to stabilize, I still feel pretty safe saying that Shield is going nowhere at this point. It would be one thing if ABC had other mild successes somewhere that we could even consider, but all of their other freshman are big flat flops and I doubt that changes midseason, and they also have way too many troubles with their veterans to even consider axing their sole freshman success of the year that is performing at 135% of its comparable average, even if it is one with a troubling trend (which, as I’ve said, I am not entirely convinced of either). People also like to bring up the issue of the “very high costs” but I have seen no report of such thing so far. The pilot was reportedly more expensive than usual but other than that, I see no reason to believe it is more expensive than something like Once Upon a Time or Nashville. It is a sure thing to come back.
- Castle
Syndication: Yes
Production Company: ABC
Ratings Average: 2.10 (105%)
With the possibility of 129 episodes produced at the end of the season, Castle is a veteran ABC-owned already in syndication. Its ratings are on the 2.1 average (105% of the average) and it also happens to be the most stable of all the drama hours with a standard deviation of only 15%. The show is even slightly up in raw numbers from last year (4%), which is very impressive in this day and age. Its ratings alone would mean it is in no danger whatsoever of any cancelation but the fact that it is so stable and that it has syndication revenues to back it up make it a no brainer at all that it will come back next year.
- Revenge
Syndication: No
Production Company: ABC
Ratings Average: 1.50 (75%)
Revenge is probably the most controversial of my classifications. I think some of you would argue that Revenge belongs in the third tier and it is in a battle with Nashville for renewal. While I think that it is even debatable if said battle exists (more on that when discussing Nashville), I have no doubt in my mind that, if it exists, Revenge will be saved and not Nashville – not even close. Why? Because of syndication. People claim that a serialized show like Revenge will not perform well in syndication and I might agree, but I don’t think it matters that much when evaluating this. If a hybrid show with very mediocre ratings since the beginning like The Good Wife, could get a $2.000.000 per episode deal for syndication, then I do not see how Revenge could not get at least a quarter of that! I have made some rough goes at evaluating the profitability of a potential Season 4 of Revenge and a potential Season 3 of Nashville and I got to a differential of about $60 million favoring Revenge! These numbers have a lot of assumptions here and are by no means very accurate but I still think we can use them to get a general view of the situation and I still think the differential I big enough to be reliable even if some of the assumptions are way off (I can try to explain them in the comments if anyone is very interested). Point is: a 75% ratings show would normally be a bubble show, but that certainly doesn’t apply to a show in its third season, because the profitability case is just too compelling! Revenge would need to fall even lower than the 75% and to score a CW-esque syndication deal for that to happen and, at the moment, I do not see any of them happening. It will be renewed comfortably!
Tier 3
- Nashville
Syndication: No
Production Company: ABC
Ratings Average: 1.50 (75%)
Nashville, in my opinion, is the sole bubbler of ABC drama slate. It has no type of syndication advantage and 75% is exactly the type of numbers we find for a bubble show. There are some other indicators that we could use for the show , such as the fact that its cost per rating (amount of $ paid for advertisers per rating point) being lower than most of other ABC dramas (suggesting an unfavorable skew) or the fact that the show got fiscal subsidies from Nashville for filming there which should help to reduce its costs, but overall these give some mixed signs that could go either way. In situations like this, I find it more useful to abstract from the show and think about whether or not the network has the means to do away with it. If we assume that ABC keeps the number of drama hours unchanged next season (meaning, it keeps 8 hours of comedy on schedule) and if we assume that all midseason dramas fail, ABC would be looking at debuting 4 new dramas next fall if it cancelled Nashville. Is that feasible? It certainly is, considering they’ve done so in all but one of the last 4 years. Will they see any upside from debuting a DOA drama like Betrayal or Lucky 7 instead of keeping Nashville? My guess would be no, but they did ax Body of Proof last year for these dramas, so take that with a grain of salt. I definitely think it’s gone if one of the midseason dramas make it, but I find that unlikely. In the end, I think this one will come down to the wire and depend on the development season that they have. If they feel strongly about it, then I think the show is a goner; if not, it should come back. My guess would be a renewal if at gunpoint, but for now, I am sticking with bubble show.
Tier 5
- Once Upon a Time in Wonderland
Syndication: No
Production Company: ABC
Ratings Average: 1.00 (50%)
Wonderland had a bad premiere and had even more terrible weeks afterwards. It does have a hard timeslot but that will not be enough to save it with ratings at almost half of its comparable average. I have seen many people arguing for a Sunday tryout at 9pm, but unless they do that while taking Revenge out of Sundays, I see no upside for that at all. I seriously doubt the show could pull anything better than the mid1s that Revenge is pulling on the slot, even with OUAT as its lead-in. Remember: OUAT is not the show it used to be either ratings wise and it is not like OUAT fans don’t know the show is out there either. Although it was poorly sampled, the week 2 higher than average drop suggest a rejection of what was seen that is unlikely to change even if exposed to the mothership lead-in. I am definitely strongly against an arrangement that involves OUAT-Wonderland-Revenge, because that would harm Revenge too much and not really make a meaningful difference with Wonderland IMO, so I think in this case they should stay put and let this one play out its order and get out. I think that’s what they will do anyway. Regardless, the show will be cancelled.
- Betrayal
Syndication: No
Production Company: ABC
Ratings Average: 0.90 (45%)
I do not even know what to say here because this is, I believe, a universally accepted cancellation. No newbie show pulling ratings at 45% will be renewed and that’s all there is to say about it, really. It will be cancelled!
So, to sum it up, here is how predictions stand:
Agents of Shield – To be renewed
Betrayal – To be cancelled
Castle – To be renewed
Grey’s Anatomy – To be renewed
Lucky 7 – Cancelled
Nashville – To be determined
Once Upon a Time – To be renewed
Once Upon a Time in Wonderland – To be cancelled
Revenge – To be renewed
Scandal – To be renewed
Thanks for reading!
Grey’s Anatomy has more than 200 episodes. Scandal has 35 episodes so far not 53 - number was transposed. Also, Scandal has been partially syndicated.
ReplyDeleteI agree that Nashville is really on the bubble and has to improve in ratings for the show to be renewed.
Sorry, I accidentally used the number of episodes Grey's had at the beginning of the season instead of at the end, thanks for correcting me! As for the syndication, I meant full syndication packages with more than 88 episodes produced. Scandal is not there yet, even though yes, I am aware that deals have been done.
ReplyDeleteThanks for reading!
Those avarages don't include premire ratings, right? Otherwise they wouldn't make sense.
ReplyDeleteGreat analysis! Revenge seems like a bubble show, but with last week rating increase it is perfoming over 80% avarage, which puts it in a likely renewal situation. This will depend on how Revenge holds up, but season 4 is given due to syndaction. Even Nikita got a 4th season, albeit a shortened one
Thanks for reading and for the feedback!
ReplyDeleteThe averages include only the most recent airings, so premiere is excluded. I do a weighted average formula that tries to take out outliers even from the most recent airings, so let's say that a show does 2.1-2.7-2.1, that 2.7 would have a very low weight on the overall calculation. Something like that! Basically, because the point of the average here is to use as a predictor of how the show will perform in the future, so that's why I try to gather the level in which it is, regardless of how it has performed in the past. This is also why last week's ratings spike for Revenge is only partially increasing its average. If it performs similarly today, then it will increase its percentual rating.
As for Revenge renewal, as you can read from the text, I disagree with the notion that it is a bubble show. It would be a bubble show were it not for syndication, but with syndication it will be a renewal. It would be one thing if we were talking about a show whose ratings would indicate likely cancellation - syndication would probably bump it to a merely bubble show then - but since it is already performing at bubble level, it is a renewal in my opinion!
ABC really needs to spice things up somehow with their dramas next year, I love Grey's & it's certainly reliable but Scandal is their only drama with any real buzz aside from when Grey's has an 'event' or a finale. Revenge and OUAT are both on a steady decline, both of them surviving past next season would surprise me. I think Grey's would be doing even better numbers than they are now if they sorted out some of the bloated cast, there's just too much going on & it makes it hard to connect to stories. I'm really hoping Scandal maintains its quality this year & keeps growing.
ReplyDeleteTo be fair, ABC's drama slate is not as bad as we often think it is. Although they have plenty of room to improve (and I think better scheduling would do the trick for the most part), they have a better average than NBC or CBS when it comes to drama. The lead over NBC is huge (2.2 vs. 1.9) and they are still a bit better than CBS (2.2 vs. 2.1, even not including CBS Friday shows, which distort comparisons here), unlike what we commonly think for some reason. FOX is doing 2.4 but I don't think it's a fair comparison because they only have 3 dramas airing and ABC will easily beat them if we use the average of its 3 best performer dramas too.
ReplyDeleteAs for your comments on Grey's, I agree that the cast is too large right now, but they've had the same critic over and over again throughout the years and still add more people again and again so I doubt that changes anytime soon. In their favor, it's probably the reason why the show has survived this long, because they can survive losing characters.
Thanks for reading!
I think Nashville will be cancelled.
ReplyDeleteI think it all went down for OUATIW when they started showing more than bits and pieces of the premier. Like,a week before it aired, half of the episode was presented to the public. I love it and I really hope it somehow survives, but ABC are doing a terrible job promoting it
ReplyDeleteIt is a possibility, yes. I cannot make a call right now, need to see how its relative ratings progress.
ReplyDeleteWow! One of the best articles I've read here on SpoilerTV so far. Looking forward to the next one. Possibly about the CBS dramas (The Good Wife!) ;-)
ReplyDeleteI personally also dislike when they release too many sneak peaks like they did for Wonderland before the show airs, because one can't help but to feel disappointed when the actual thing then airs. However, there is no evidence to suggest that affected its ratings. Other shows have released complete episodes before and still got very good ratings (see Revolution last year) - the number of people who watch it in advance is unlikely to affect the actual number and, if anything, word of mouth could counterbalance it, hence why networks do it.
ReplyDeleteThanks for reading!
Wow, thanks a lot for your very kind words! Glad that you enjoyed it so much! Yes, I have not forgotten that I told you I would try to get one out about CBS Dramas and The Good Wife in particular. I wanted to start with an easier situation though to get myself used to this, but I will probably try to give them a go next week! Thanks again!
ReplyDeleteI've never posted a comment before or even had a profile before just a minute ago, but when I read this I just had to tell you how amazing your articles are and how much I enjoy reading them, especially this one. I want to thank you for the hard work you put into this and tell you that it definitely pays off. Looking forward to reading EVERYTHING that you post! :-)
ReplyDeleteWow, such an honor! Thank you so much for your kind comment, it really means a lot and certainly gives me motivation to keep going ;) Thank you for having created a profile just for this purpose, that is a big honor! I will try to live up to that in future articles! Again, thanks, very glad that you enjoyed it and found it useful!
ReplyDeleteBy the way, excellent taste with that avatar ;)
ReplyDeleteHaha thanks! I just realized that yours is also from The Walking Dead. My favorite show ever! Anyway, I'm happy to motivate you, and will always keep doing so :)
ReplyDeleteIt's also my favorite show currently airing ;)
ReplyDeleteSo nice to see this explained about the shows. It's easy to read and understandable. Hope to see more of those. Thanks :)
ReplyDeleteThank you for that nice comment ;) Really appreciate it! Hopefully, more of these will come, yes! Thanks!
ReplyDeleteHey, I'm from France and I don't understand everything about the ratings but I try to do my best.
ReplyDeleteCan someone explains to me what the syndication means for Castle?
And I'm not really sure I understand the last line concerning Castle : Its ratings alone would mean it is in no danger whatsoever of any cancelation but the fact that it is so stable and that it has syndication revenues to back it up make it a no brainer at all that it will come back next year.
Does that means that, even with it's great rating, it also will be back because of the syndication and the fact that its rating are stable?
Hello. Thanks for reading and for commenting! As for your questions:
ReplyDelete- first, I would recommend you to read the guide I've written that we've published two weeks ago: http://www.spoilertv.com/2013/10/renewals-and-cancellations-decisions.html
- the article explains the fundamentals about syndication but in any case here it goes more or less: if a show is syndicated, it means that the producing company (ABC studios in the case of Castle) sells the episode for second-run airings (repeats) to other channels. ABC Studios has sold Castle to TNT, which airs repeats of Castle. Typically, these syndication packages are only attractive for shows with >88 episodes, which is already the case of Castle, hence it being marked as yes in the syndicated category. This means that, for each episode that ABC produces, ABC will get part of the cost back simply by getting money from it from TNT, which will pay ABC Studios to air the new episodes produced in repeats. This makes the show more attractive than it would be otherwise, because it is more profitable.
- and yes, that is what I meant. In any normal situation, Castle would be safe at a ratings level of 105%, but the fact that it is also syndicated and so stable means it is even safer. Basically, I am predicting its renewal with a high degree of confidence!
Wow, very good article! :D Hope to read more from you in the future.
ReplyDeleteWill you write about other networks as well, like The CW?
Thanks a lot! I am glad you liked it;) Yes, hopefully I will continue to write more articles in the future. I am sure I will do one on the CW at some point as well, yes. Probably not next week though, since I had already promised that I would try to take a look at CBS dramas, but I will try to do the CW in 2 or 3 weeks ;) Hope to see you around by then!
ReplyDeleteA very informative article, thanks a lot. Can't wait to hear your views on CBS shows, especially The Mentalist.
ReplyDeleteThank you for your comment ;) Glad you liked it and found it useful! Hopefully you appreciate next week's CBS article as well!
ReplyDeleteThank you for this post! I cannot, for the life of me, understand the ratings system (seriously, why don't they teach this stuff in school? lol) so this post is really awesome for someone like me! It's very thorough and and straightforward, and lays things out perfectly, good job!
ReplyDeleteOn that note, it never ceases to amaze me how well Grey's is performing even 9 seasons in. So many people I know watch it religiously, so it's gotta be doing something right! Scandal's also does really well, which makes sense, because Kerry is awesome. Despite the so-so things I've heard about AoS, I think they're working out the kinks as they come, and with the 2nd season order, ABC is clearly confident in the show's longevity.
Thank you! I am glad that you found it useful and clear! As for the ratings system, maybe you can have a look at the general article we've published two weeks ago in which I try to explain the main points about it. http://www.spoilertv.com/2013/10/renewals-and-cancellations-decisions.html
ReplyDeleteOn to your specific comments, I agree that Grey's is definitely a monster, performing this well 10 seasons in, it is a terrific accomplishment. As for Shield, I agree that it is improving - regardless, I think there was little chance that we be having this kind of conversation. The show was bound the debut high and fall from there, so people would always call it a let down. However, remember that the show hasn't been renewed yet - it's only been ordered a complete full season, which is not the same!
Thanks! :) Can't wait :D
ReplyDeletethank you for the link! I'll check it out! :)
ReplyDeleteIs it a sure thing that Once Upon a time in Wonderland will be cancelled, or is it the writer's point of view?
ReplyDeleteAlso, the episodes are getting better as the show goes on, IMO. I didn't like the 1st on, the second one was okeish, but last week's it was amazing!
ReplyDeleteI'm also from outside the states, so I don't get it either :P - I mean, I understood your explanation but I have another question.
ReplyDeleteIf a show is broadcasted outside the states. Let's say X show is only broadcasted by ABC in USA but it's also broadcasted in Europe, that means that the show is syndicated as well? Or does it only counts for American TV?
Hey there. Thanks for reading and asking. No, that's not syndication. That's international sales. However, evidence suggests that international sales represents a very low % of the actual profitability of a show. Mostly this is because international markets are much smaller (less developed in terms of TV series, less population, less ad revenues to work with) meaning the amount they pay to the studios are much smaller than the ones studios get from national syndication, which is why, at the end of the day, international sales, while nice to have, are unlikely to make a difference in a show's renewal or cancellation chances.
ReplyDeleteThanks for reading. Well, all this is my point of view if you wanna put it that way, but I try to back it up with facts as much as possible. Obviously, I could be wrong, but in that specific case, I find it very unlikely. When I say certain, I mean that I believe that it has less than a 5% chance of being renewed.
ReplyDeleteGreat article! An understandable and enjoyable read. Same for the guide you made. Maybe you can post it in your future articles that way we can easily go to it if we have questions.
ReplyDeleteGot it, thank you for taking the time and replying to all of us :)
ReplyDeleteNo problem, my pleasure!
ReplyDeleteNo problem! Thank you a lot for your comment, I am glad you liked it ;) I will try to include the link to the guide more obviously in the next articles though ;)
ReplyDeleteGreat article! Very informative and well explained! Hope you will do this for the other networks as well. :)
ReplyDeleteGreat article! Concisely written, reasoned arguments about each show's scenarios. Very refreshing compared to the TVBTN comments :)
ReplyDeleteWhile I agree with all of your conclusions, I think it is worth noting that costs may severely impact Grey's and Castle down the line, but certainly not this season. Sandra Oh leaving will hurt Grey's next season, and having one or more original cast members leave later on would hurt it further. While ABC obviously will keep it around for at least another season, the scales will eventually tip. Castle likewise faces some production difficulties with Nathan Fillion, but I still see several seasons ahead for it. ABC simply isn't in the ratings position to replace aging dramas when its freshman keep flopping.
Thanks for this!
ReplyDeleteThank you for reading and for appreciating it ;)
ReplyDeleteHey there! Thanks for reading, and I am glad you liked it! I actually thought about including a section on prognostics for midseason shows but I thought it was already long as it was. My opinion is that they will fail, if only because ABC insists on plugging shows where fall shows failed, only leading to more failures. I don't think it's a coincidence that the last midseason show they've renewed, Scandal, was one in which they actually shuffled the schedule around in order to make room for it. I love Scandal to death but I think that had they send it to Tuesdays at 10 (to where they eventually send private practice) the show wouldn't have made it. So yeah, I think all 3 will flop.
ReplyDeleteGlad to have your interest and I promise a CW article will come at some point (though probably not next week)!
Thanks a lot for your compliments, I am glad you liked it!
ReplyDeleteAs for the issue of costs, I don't ignore it. I try to take it into account in my predictions somehow, but it is hard to do because it is something that we will always have very little information about and it is mostly due to speculation. I've been actively searching the WEB for sometime now and I've been trying to gather some estimates of the costs of certain shows - maybe that's something I can publish later if I get something more conclusive - and I found that most of what people think about a cost being too high or so is mostly speculation with no basis (this even applies to something like Shield). I don't doubt that the older a show is, the more costly it gets. However, there are three very important offsets to this:
- when shows are that old, they typically have numerous syndication deals, which, in some cases, are even enough to cover for the cost of producing the shows alone. This would mean that whatever ad revenue the show generates would go directly to net profit. So, despite higher costs, revenues also tend to be higher, so the effect on the margin is not as negative as one might expect
- some shows find a way to keep the budget constrained by doing stuff as simple as replacing older cast members, whose contracts renegotiation would surely lead to a higher salary. Grey's Anatomy is a prime example of this and I believe what happened at the end of season 8, with the loss of Teddy, Lexie and Mark was the result of this. Sure, they've added a bunch of interns, but I doubt the sum of their salaries is even half of the sum of salaries of those 3
- sometimes, the effect that a show has on the overall schedule is worth having it around, even if the show itself produces a loss. This was the case of Friends in its last years. Even though the show was too expensive to be profitable per se, it was boosting the entire night around it, so it was worth keeping. It would be like for CBS to remove the big bang theory from the schedule all of the sudden - its thursdays would collapse!
Mostly, however, I think these type of considerations should only apply to shows that would be in the low end of the likely renewal range. Something like Grey's, performing at 135% of the average, I find it hard to imagine they would away would it before first trying out a season with a revamped cast or something (it is obviously harder for a character dependent show such as Castle, but Castle is not that old just yet)
Thank you a lot for your comment and for reading! I am glad you liked it! And yes, hopefully, I will be doing this for other networks in the future too!
ReplyDeleteLoved
ReplyDeletethe article. Very well written, informative and spot on, to my opinion. I'm
really frustrated with NASHVILLE status. Really love the show but think that
ABC is doing everything they can to ruin it. One of that ways is the schedule:
it has a terrible lead that day and probably the wrong hour (just look at the
DVR+7 ratings...). Wonder if, in case the ratings will go up a bit (because
it's kind of steady with this show) ABC will choose to give it a better time
slot instead of cancelling it...and probably regretting it later.
Thanks for reading and I am glad you liked it! Very kind comments, appreciate it ;) As for Nashville, I agree that that SFN night lead-in doesn't help at all, but to be fair, I think the show was the reason why Suburgatory got the pots MF slot last year, to guarantee it had a stable lead-in. Let's see what happens, for now it sits squarely on the bubble IMO.
ReplyDeleteNice analysis, Omabin!
ReplyDeleteI do hope Wonderland gets to finish it's order and run like a mini-series, which was the original intent, but I am surprised that haven't announced cancellation yet. I agree that it would be unfair to Revenge to put it at 9 on Sundays, but what about 10 (I think that Betrayal's spot right? Or on Fridays???
I just feel bad for H & K, because it appears they got pushed into this arrangement much faster than originally thought they would and because I think Wonderland only gets better with every episode...
Thank you, I am glad you liked it!
ReplyDeleteAnswering you, as far as Revenge goes, I don't see Sundays at 10 being a major improvement. It would have to deal with less competition but it would also be exposed to a less PUT hour, which cancel each other out. However, it would most likely air after a lower rated show than OUAT (because I don't see what else they could air at 9 that would do +2.0) and that should harm Revenge. But it's probably a likely move for this Spring anyway. As for Fridays, I don't see why. ABC is not exactly like FOX that treats Fridays as a dumping ground I think. It's a very good day for them and I don't think Revenge fits there. Even though airing out of Shark Tank maybe wouldn't be such a bad idea. But I don't see it happening at all.
As for Wonderland, I think it should be able to play its order (even if in summer) because ABC doesn't have enough sparkle this season. I think Wonderland has been getting better but it is still a very problematic show to me. I can't get past the CGI and the childish tone of the show for the most part. I also feel that in a lot of instances they are forcing the plot to go where they want (like, why would Jaffar and the Red Queen let Alice go at the end of the last episode? They could continue to force her to use the wishes). I also find it too cheesy. The original OUAT is a cheesy show (grr that Mary Margaret character) but in smaller doses and generally not as the driving force of the plot, which happens here. Regardless, I still find the show mildly enjoyable and I am still watching but I am not going to feel too bad if it ends. I think it could have been much more than it was.
"As for Fridays, I don't see why. ABC is not exactly like FOX that treats Fridays as a dumping ground I think. It's a very good day for them and I don't think Revenge fits there. Even though airing out of Shark Tank maybe wouldn't be such a bad idea. But I don't see it happening at all."
ReplyDeleteI actually was referring to moving Wonderland to Fridays, because I agree that Revenge shouldn't be touched.
CBS has H50 and NBC has their Dracula/Grimm combo. Thematically it just seems like a good night to have it...I know we were also talking about that the other issue is "what" would ABC put in it's place?? And I have no idea, but I still feel like they should try and move Wonderland from this Thursday death slot to some other time as a cortisy to H and K.
I think Wonderland is a lot like season 1 of OUAT, where the story feels tight, but I'm with you in that even though I'm enjoying season 3 of OUAT, better than some of last season, it's still not on par (and ya MM and Charming need some *new material, but at least I feel like they have taken a bit of a back seat so far this year)with it's first season. But I'm enjoying Wonderland, more than Once at the moment.
Sorry, I had misinterpreted you. I don't see Wonderland on Fridays either. Fridays are solid for ABC, they won't touch them, and certainly not with a failing show like Wonderland. I know it's tough to hear but Wonderland has really very little chance of making it (I am talking <5%). I think it could have a Sunday burnoff at some point but I don't see even that being a magic potion for it. Other than that, I think it will continue to air Thursdays until it's over.
ReplyDeleteAs for the quality, I agree that the stories from Wonderland are tight, but I think they are too tight lol. The only thing going on is the love stories between Alice and Cyrus and the Red Queen and Will, as well as the backstory of Jaffar. Yes, I know it's not that little, but it feels a bit too closed for me. OUAT always felt very open world to me, with many characters and interactions and I find that missing here. And again, the problem is that most of what they do here is very cheesy, so there is no place to hide for the mots part (Will is my favorite part of the show and Jaffar is ok too, but I have some issues with Naveen Andrews I think because I feel he overdoes it. He was spectacular in Lost Season 1 and 2, but other than that I find it very meh). As for the original OUAT, I am really liking this season, even with some issues it still has, I find it somehow on par with the first season. I think the issue they have now is the issue that Lost ran into in its third season which is that flashbacks of the core group are not appealing anymore and is juts walking in circles (and Lost had this problem in a smaller way because had a larger cast). They need to shake up storytelling like Lost did to run from this. The best episodes for me this year were the ones focused on Ariel and Hook (two characters we hadn't explore yet), which kind of shows my point. I know this is an unpopular opinion but OUAT, for me, is the kind of a show that would gain from having a larger cast. I don't need to be around the Charmings, Regina (love her, but still), Emma and Rumple all the time. I would glady take more episodes around other characters with their own storylines going on (I would be happy to have Maleficient episodes, Mulan, Robin Hood, more Red, more Cinderella, etc). But most people hate this idea and complain everytime they add someone, so I don't think they should do this as much as I would prefer.
"like, why would Jaffar and the Red Queen let Alice go at the end of the last episode?"
ReplyDelete1. I think Jafar was "touched" by Alice's love, because the truth is he (and the red Queen) still have feelings for their former love interest(s) (The Queen can be seen touching the area of the Knaves Heart after Alice
leaves)
2. We learned from The Red Queen that Wonderland is a kind of "prison". We have no idea if The queen or even Jafar can "come and go" as they please or if some people are "bound" to Wonderland. And when you think about it, Cora is sent there via Rumple/Regina almost like it's "exile" from FTL...So one way or another Wonderland is not "freedom" for everyone. (*also hence the theme of changing the "laws" of magic). Jafar already proved that "torturing" here won't get him results, which is why he vows to hurt everyone else Alice loves and leaves. We have to assume he's setting out to figure out whom else he can hurt.
3. We have to remember that LC's novel relies on backwards philosophy/quantum mechanics or "dream logic" and thus the writers can get away with "irrational" behavior/situations here more than OUAT.
Fair points like always ;) You've convinced me into accepting that specific point ahah, good job!
ReplyDelete:D Thanks
ReplyDeleteJust remember we have only had four episodes, but every episode I think has been pealing back layers nicely, very similar to the way LOST does, as these character centric episodes do at least feel relavant to the over all story, where OUAT sometimes really executes things in a bizar way sometimes IMO.
I wish we would just have a Storybrooke story without the main cast for a bit, rather than something that again seems slap-bang. I think Rumples upcoming episode is what most of the other episodes of the season should have been like, because I think we can't really get to the heart of these people with out also seeing their childhoods and it would have fit into JB's Peter Pan themes. I know Ariel was a what a lot of people wanted, but I'm actually more interested in Tinkerbell, Mulan, and Robinhood and fleshing out Emma, Charming, and Belle...
I get where you're coming from and hey, I am glad you enjoy the show so much. I don't dislike it or anything (I am still watching despite the certain impeding cancellation), but I think it has too many issues, that's just it.
ReplyDeleteAs for OUAT, I don't think Storybrooke by itself is all that interesting, I am kind of digging Neverland way more and it feels like a nice break. But that could work what you're saying. The problem is that a lot of people would complain from it being not focused on the main characters etc. And it's kind of a thin line to walk I confess. Last season, I felt the show was suffering a lot for not having an overall arc/ end purpose (the second half, I loved the first). What we both want doesn't seem to fit with that, so I am not sure how they should do it. Then again, we're not writers :P
Well it's def not the greatest show ever written or anything, but I'm enjoying it a little more than OUAT at the moment, even though there are certainly a a good handful of OUAT episodes that I thought were really good this season.
ReplyDeleteAnd I agree with you about last year. It did suffer from not having a more specific arc (but I did like some of the idea presented in the episode. I just wish they would tie some things back so it would feel relative)
Of course they would complain! I think their viewers are the biggest complainers I've ever seen! XD
I definitely agree with you that OUAT's fan base is probably the fanbase I came across the complains the most! I was trying to think of other show in which I find such effect, but I can't remember anything. Maybe Dexter during this final season, there was a lot of complaints going around, but I don't think it came close. Revolution in Season 1 was also pretty bad, but I am not counting first season shows because the fanbases are made of people who haven't made up their minds about a show yet. Yeah, OUAT is definitely the worst lol
ReplyDeleteSuch a pity people won't give 'Betrayal' a chance. I've seen the show since the beginning and I'm so in love with it. I know it will be canceled because of its low ratings but really...it's a shame! Story of my life, I gues ;-) I also loved 'Men in Trees', 'Off the Map' and 'Alcatraz'...which - sadly enough - have been canceled.
ReplyDeleteTHANKS! i finally understood what syndication means lol it was driving me nuts!
ReplyDeleteThe only one I'm not ok with, is Nashville getting cancelled.
ReplyDeleteHey there. Thank you for taking the time to stopping by. I have never watched Betrayal so I really can't comment on its quality though. But at least I think it became clear early on enough to allow it to have an ending, I would think. I hope you get a satisfying conclusion!
ReplyDeleteHey there. Thanks for taking the time to stopping by. I am not predicting Nashville to be cancelled, I am merely saying it could go either way. I will update my predictions as the season progresses and ratings keep changing. We shall see. As of this moment, my guess would be a renewal, but that's just a guess, no actual prediction right now.
ReplyDeleteHope your guess is right. Thank you for updating us with the possibilities.
ReplyDeleteMy pleasure ;)
ReplyDelete