Today's Early Overnight Ratings
This table shows the early overnight ratings. These ratings are normally adjusted later in the day when all the ratings have been consolidated to take into account any local preemptions and/or overruns. You can find all the final adjusted numbers in our
Ratings Database. (See the About section below for details about ratings)
Early Ratings Analysis
The analysis below is based on the early household numbers and are NOT the same as the numbers that will be posted in the above table later. (See the About section below)
For more information on the Nielsen Ratings see this
Wikipedia Entry.
NOTE: The opinions expressed here are NOT those of SpoilerTV but of the Author of this Article,
Marc Berman.
Metered Market Wednesday Ratings
CBS Wins; Lackluster Freshman Series Results
Wednesday 10/16/13
Household
Rating/Share
CBS 6.5/11
Fox 6.0/10
ABC 4.8/ 8
NBC 4.1/ 7
CW 1.9/ 3
———-
-Percent Change from Year-Ago Evening – Wednesday 10/17/12:
Fox: +33, NBC: + 2, CBS: -12, CW: -14, ABC: -20
———-
-Winners:
“Survivor: Blood vs. Water” (CBS), “Toy Story of Terror” (ABC), American League Championship Series, Game 4 (Fox), “Modern Family” (ABC), “Criminal Minds” (CBS), “CSI” (CBS)
-A Definite Option:
“The Tomorrow People” (CW)
-Disappointing:
“Super Fun Night” (ABC)
-Losers (excluding repeats):
“Back in the Game” (ABC), “Nashville” (ABC), “Ironside” (NBC)
———-
-Ratings Breakdown:
It was another midweek overnight household victory for CBS, which populated this fourth Wednesday of the TV season with its regularly scheduled line-up of “Survivor: Blood vs. Water” (#1: 6.3 rating/11 share at 8 p.m.), “Criminal Minds” (#1 from 9-10 p.m.: 7.0/12) and granddaddy “CSI” (6.1/11 at 10 p.m.), which bested No. 2 “Nashville” on ABC (3.9/ 7) by a hefty 56 percent. While all three of the Eye net series were down year-to-year (“Survivor”: -12 percent, “Criminal Minds”: -10 percent and “CSI”: -16 percent), the overall results are still positive. And “Survivor,” in this viewer’s opinion, is enjoying its best season creatively since that premiere edition in Borneo in 2000. Note to the Emmy voters: It is time for you to notice.
Fox finished a competitive second overall, and could ultimately win the evening in the young adult demographics, thanks to an estimated 6.0/10 in the overnights for Boston at Detroit in game four of the American League Championship Series on Major League Baseball. Results for any live sporting event, of course, are always approximate.
Over at ABC, animated 8 p.m. special “Toy Story of Terror” finished a solid third with a 5.6/ 9 in the overnights. Comparably, that was right on par with regularly scheduled “The Middle” from one week earlier. But episode four of lead-out “Back in the Game” dipped to a series-low 3.8/ 6 at 8:30 p.m., which trailed year-ago occupant “The Neighbors” (5.0/ 8 on 10/17/12) by 24 percent. Four-week overnight track for “Back in the Game”: 5.4/ 9 – 4.7/ 8 – 4.2/ 7 – 3.8/ 6.
“Modern Family” on ABC perked up to a dominant 7.4/12 at 9 p.m., which will have no trouble leading the evening in adults 18-49. But week three of inane “Super Fun Night” slipped another nine percent to a fourth-place 4.3/ 7 at 9:30 p.m. Comparably, that was 23 percent below the season-premiere of “Suburgatory” on the year-ago evening (5.6/ 9 on 10/17/12, out of a 9.0/14 for “Modern Family”). And the retention out of “Modern Family” was just 58 percent. Three-week overnight track for “Super Fun Night”: 5.5/ 9 – 4.7/ 8 – 4.3/ 7. Question for ABC: Why?
Aforementioned “Nashville” capped off the night for the alphabet net with a second-place 3.9/ 7 at 10 p.m., which was 22 percent below the 5.0/ 9 on the year-ago evening.
Elsewhere, relocated NBC drama “Revolution” remained an improvement over failed year-ago 8-9 p.m. comedies “Animal Practice” and “Guys With Kids,” with a fourth-place 3.7/ 6 (which was 21 percent above the sitcoms). Lead-out “Law & Order: SVU” perked up to a 5.1/ 8 at 9 p.m. (#4), but week three of the older skewing revival of “Ironside” dipped to a 3.5/ 6 at 10 p.m. (#3), which was 10 percent below one week earlier and 17 percent below year-ago time period occupant “Chicago Fire” (4.2/ 7 on 10/17/12). Tick, tock…the cancellation clock is ticking. Three-week overnight track for “Ironside”: 5.0/ 9 – 3.9/ 7 – 3.5/ 6.
In episode two news, CW drama “The Tomorrow People” scored a 1.7/ 3 at 9 p.m. (#5), which was just six percent below its week-ago opener (1.8/ 3 on Oct. 9) with retention of 81 percent out of the 8:30 p.m. portion of lead-in “Arrow” (2.1/ 3). That 1.8 in the overnights translated into 2.32 million viewers and a 0.9 rating/ 2 share among adults 18-49, based on the live plus same day data, which was compatible out of “Arrow.” And the 1.7 in the overnights last night outdelivered year-ago occupant “Supernatural” (1.5/ 2 on 10/17/12) by 13 percent.
“Arrow,” meanwhile, averaged a 2.2/ 4 in the overnights from 8-9 p.m., which was 21 percent below the 2.8/ 5 on the year-ago evening.
Source: Nielsen Media Research data
Source: Marc Berman@tvmediainsights
About the Daily Ratings
Each day (except Sunday) during the main TV Season we post the TV Ratings for the previous nights primetime shows for the major broadcast networks (ABC, CBS, CW, FOX, NBC). Cable Network ratings will be added to the
Ratings Database.
The first item that gets posted (normally around 2pm GMT) is the early overnight analysis based on the early household numbers (these are not the same as the Total Viewers and 18-49 Demo numbers that are posted later).
Next, if available, we will post the Top 25 Market 18-49 Ratings to give you a rough idea of the ratings to following.
Later on (normally between 4pm-5pm GMT) we post the official early overnight Total Viewers and 18-49 Demo numbers in the table above.
Finally, later in the evening (10pm-11pm GMT) or the following day, the final adjusted ratings numbers are released, these are then posted in the
Ratings Database. The Final Adjusted numbers are what we use for all our Renew/Cancellation Tables, Full Season Tables, Ratings Scorecards etc (see below)
Additional Ratings Resources
If you’re interested in Ratings/Renewals/Cancellations then we have a number of resources here at SpoilerTV that we recommend you check out.
Renew/Cancel
Our Cancellation/Renewal predictions for the current season.
Ratings Database
Historical Ratings Database for nearly all major US shows going back to their first episodes.
Full Season Tables
The current season full ratings tables for both Total Viewers and 18-49 Demos
Ratings Scorecard
See how all the shows stack up against each other in the Ratings Scorecard Table.
Super Fun Night is losing too much from Modern Family
ReplyDeleteRevolution, Arrow and TTP's numbers appear stable from last week, so hopefully so is the demo (or up, which is always an acceptable option!)
ReplyDeleteNashville's ratings is not looking good. The only way I see it coming back next year is if both mid season dramas fail.
ReplyDeleteEverything loses from Modern Family. At this point it really seems like the MF viewers just aren't interested in whatever is behind it.
ReplyDeleteOuch Nashville...don't leave me show...don't leave me
ReplyDeleteAssuming ABC goes with 4 new dramas next fall, it means that most likely only two out of the following will be renewed:
ReplyDelete- OUAT Wonderland
- Nashville
- 4th comedy hour
- Mind Games
- Killer Women
- Resurrection
I think they will insist on the 4th comedy hour and then it is between Wonderland and Nashville. I see Nashville winning that battle.
The fact that they have yet to make a fall premiere of a family comedy behind Modern Family is also likely a major factor:
ReplyDelete- Cougar Town, Happy Endings, Apartment 23, Mr. Sunshine, Super Fun Night (how this list is so big is behind me): not family comedies
- How to Live: spring launch
- Suburgatory: 2nd year comedy
I think that had How to Live premiered in the fall it would have worked. Also Trophy Wife.
Was still hoping for better #s for Revolution,will see with the finals later...
ReplyDeleteI don't really know why we have so many sitcoms, especially as so many are of poor quality these days. I wish they could go back to trying some half-hour anthology shows or dramas.
ReplyDeleteNashville!!! come on people, it's good!!
ReplyDeleteI am always hoping for the best, I get nervous waiting for these Wednesday numbers nowadays, but it's up a tick in household numbers, so that has me hopeful for a steady demo. I believe if it remains at 1.5 it should get a renewal with everything else that is going on at NBC.
ReplyDeleteThey should have a Revolution/Thursday night comedy crossover, where Billy Burke kills random characters from the MJF and Sean Hayes shows.
ReplyDeleteThat's on the assumption that Mind Games, Killer Women and Resurrection will all fail but if at least one of them succeed and Nashville goes below a 1.5 I don't see ABC committing to 44 episodes of Nashville. As for Wonderland, I don't think it's coming back.
ReplyDeleteI'm trying to figure out - why is Arrow not on Berman's list but Tomorrow People is? Is the show doing better than Arrow?
ReplyDeleteYou're probably right but I'm holding out hope for Resurrection as the trailer looks really good.
ReplyDeleteI don't know what the current DVD-R numbers are, but I was briefly looking at Wikipedia for episode titles last night which featured ratings and DVD-R numbers from season two premiere, including the total with DVD-R numbers, was 9.60 (DVD-R 18-49 was 2.9)...I don't know HOW much NBC cares about DVD-R' #s, but if it's higher, perhaps that will help factor in, as long as these other ratings stay steady?!
ReplyDeleteI think the issue was that they were too ambitious. IMO, they probably realized after last year experiment that putting young skewing comedies (Super Fun Night, Mixology) against the FOX comedy block that is so friendly to the 18-34 demo was not a good idea. So these could not go to Tuesdays. Then I think they had to make a choice in terms of either putting their best comedies on Wednesdays and going for the lowest risk, lowest reward thing (only one successful comedy night) or putting them on Tuesdays and going for the high risk, high reward thing (potentially two successful nights, potentially a failure - the later happened). Unlike last year, I don't think, given the circumstances (i.e. # of comedy hours, dramas that they picked) it was a terrible call, just a risky one, and they had the worst outcome out of it.
ReplyDeleteIn ideal circumstances, I would have never picked up Super Fun Night and I would have made Tuesday an all drama night, with something like OUAT/Shield/Big Thunder.
Thanks. I thought he meant he was thinking of listing it as winner or honorable mention.
ReplyDeleteI will also check out Resurrection if the ratings are there (I avoid out of the gate flop shows so that I don't get invested over nothing), but I seriously doubt it has a shot unless Revenge stops the bleeding, and even then, not even a very strong Revenge last fall helped 666.
ReplyDeleteFor OUAT in Wonderland: I think people under-estimate it, because it was so over promoted and previewed, that it didn't leave much to the imagination....but I think once we get into the Red Queen and Jafar's back story, I think is when it will have OUAT potential and an edge of darkness that is missing from the Pilot...OUAT's Pilot I don't think was that much better, but the audience knew very little about it and considering we have had 3 seasons with about half of it being "great" episodes, I think people are expecting too much from the spin off too soon!
ReplyDeleteIt's not as simple as that. DVR-Ratings by themsleves are meaningless (no commercials = no profits for the networks). The only DVD ratings that count are the C+3 ratings which are those that are viewed with commercials upon 3 days of initial airing. We rarely see those numbers, so it is hard to extrapolate what they are. 18-49 ratings are widely believed to be the best proxy for these numbers and a fairly good one at it.
ReplyDeleteTypically, the show's ranking in a list of shows won't change much when you factor in the DVR numbers though. This means that for instance if NBC's drama pecking order based on 18-49 ratings is something like: 1. The Blacklis 2. Chicago Fire 3. SVU 4. Parenthood 5. Revolution 6. Ironside, the best you can hope for is that Revolution becomes 4th or something if it's in a very close situation with Parenthood once you factor in C3.
This being said, the few times we are able to see C+3 ratings, it has been shown that there is a positive correlation between heavily DVR shows and increases in C3 from 18-49. This means that if Revolution is amongst the highest DVRed shows (as it was last season), it should have one of the biggest bumps in C3, which would be a good advantage for it. But this is very hard to establish because we would need access to the DVR numbers on a consistent basis, not just to the top25 and not just when networks feel like spinning them.
I haven't watched it to be honest. I was quite excited about it, but I avoid watching shows that look problematic out of the gate, so I have been saving the episodes hoping for the best. I was talking purely ratings-wise. As it stands, it looks bad for it.
ReplyDeleteThanks for explaining! :)
ReplyDeleteThe only reason I thought it might help is because it seems FOX had valued it with FRINGE...
Well since they probably are going to have to start all over next fall, maybe they'll put a family comedy there but I'm still not convinced that the MF viewers will just watch because it's behind their show.
ReplyDeleteIt does not look good!
ReplyDeleteGoing against another genre show in Arrow certainly does it no favors.
ReplyDeleteNo problem ;)
ReplyDeleteWell, Fringe case really doesn't require us to use the DVR numbers to explain its renewal. I don't have data from season 1 but I believe its ratings were fairly ok for FOX standards by then. Afterwards:
- Season 2: it was basically between Fringe, Lie to Me and Human Target. All three were renewed.
- Season 3: again, battle was between fringe, lie to me and human target. Chicago Code's ratings were too low and it was a new show, which means it had a disadvantage, especially having had such a short season. By season's end, weighted averages were: Lie to Me: 1.9 | Fringe: 1.8 (using a friday factor) | Human Target: 2.0. Basically, a tie (0.1 differences are meaningless). Fringe was the only one within one season of having 88 episodes for syndication. It got an easy early renewal.
- Season 4: It was between fringe, terra nova and alcatraz. The Finder's ratings were too low. Terra Nova and Alcatraz were at disadvantage being newbies (I say around 10% less) whereas Fringe had the advantage of being a short season away from 100 eps, which reportedly make syndication deals considerably more profitable (I'd say about 12,5% more). This means there was a gap of about 23%, combined with a friday factor. Fringe got it.
I'd say that 85% of the time networks spin DVR numbers, it's PR purposes and you should ignore it for renewal/ cancellation purposes.
If they expect a megahit of MF size they will be let down, sure. No huge hit (for their channel standards) has been able to have good retention. TVD, The Voice, American Idol, The Big Bang Theory, Modern Family... The list goes on. It won't happen. You can and should however hope for above average numbers (not retention). That has yet to happen (I would actually say that How to Live and Happy Endings Season 2 were the closest to that yet).
ReplyDeleteYep! I was hoping some of the viewers from last season who dropped the show would try it again this season.Revolution is finally finding itself,but probably too little to late....No ones fault except the showrunners...
ReplyDeleteThis should be The Marc & Omabin Column! :)
ReplyDeleteI always figured they axed Alcatraz for Fringe's sake as part of the negotiating process since they were both coming from Bad Robot...
ReplyDeleteI think the ratings, and especially the trend, was too negative. It could not stay on Mondays and there was no point in moving it to Fridays after 13 episodes (which they actually did with Touch anyway). My rule for renewals/ cancellations explanations is: the simplest, the best. In 80% of the cases, looking at 18-49 ratings, considering the number of episodes (new show, one season away from syndication, one season away from 100 eps) and Friday factor are the main determinants. Sometimes you have to look to the cost side (like you are suggesting) and to stuff like skew, but those are a vast minority. Just my opinion though
ReplyDeleteI am not 100% sure on the "On Demand" numbers to be honest, but I think I read somewhere they are included in the C3 numbers, as long as you view them within the 3 days window. Networks, particularly CBS, were trying to change this for a 7 day window last year but they were not successful as far as I know (in theory stuff like promoting movies and stuff won't be as efficient by then).
ReplyDeleteWell to be fair, I think networks tend to push for procedural elements, especially in first seasons. I think the writers of these shows often feel forced to do that and it makes it hard on a genre show or a show with mythology, because for whatever reason (and maybe there is data to prove it) that too much serialization pushes most viewers away? (which is nuts when you consider how many people watch something like Game of Thrones!)
ReplyDeleteThat makes sense, I guess. I just think Arrow has tougher competition this season, and tougher competition than Tomorrow People. I'm not even a huge Arrow fan, but it being against Revolution means it has a harder fight.
ReplyDeleteSPN did a 1.0 this time last year in that spot I think, I'll be surprised if TTP does even that. I predict a 0.8
ReplyDeleteAgreed.But we also have to take into consideration that they realized there was a problem and took that long hiatus as a way to regroup.It certainly helped but then the hiatus didn't help them either.....It was like a vicious cycle that couldn't be broken.
ReplyDeleteNO Revolution! Stop falling already, please! Upwards adjustment, please! Happy for the very positive uptick for Arrow though and TTP held up well, hopefully it is adjust up too! SFN is officially the failure we all expected it to be.
ReplyDeleteI'm not trying to sound mean to the Super Fun Night fans but this doesn't deserve to air after Modern Family. I think it's more of a Friday show. Trophy Wife needs to air after Modern Family. Whoever made those scheduling decisions should immediately be evaluated! I watch Trophy Wife every Tuesdays and it's funnier than most sitcoms. The Neighbors needs to be cancelled asap to make room for SFN and put Trophy Wife in SFN's place.
ReplyDeleteI agree that SFN needs to leave the post MF slot but fridays is a very bad idea for it, it would most likely flop there. I think it should simply be cancelled to be honest. If it doesn't have an audience following MF, chances are it won't have it practically anywhere.
ReplyDeleteGood point. Don't get me wrong: Rebel Wilson is a great actress but the writing of the first episode that I saw of SFN was just an EPIC FAIL.
ReplyDeletearrow back in the Top tier....
ReplyDeleteI really like Tomorrow People so hope they stay steady or even become bigger
ReplyDeleteWe almost had a night where everything on broadcast was a 1.0 or above.......
ReplyDeleteAnd looks like Revolution is done. Too bad for the fans as this season is a marked improvement in quality. Had the not so pants shittingly spectacularly dropped the ball last half of last season, we may have seen a 3rd season. Now, little hope of that.
ReplyDeleteArrow went up in both overall numbers and demo from last week.Why Isn't it a winner.3 million In total viewers for a cw show,and up to 1.1 In demo after 0.9 last week.
ReplyDeleteYa, but it's becoming a more standard template trying to be more in line with Cable shows. (ABC seems to be going this route and Fox) But the end of March was a long long time to wait...
ReplyDeleteI personally think the second half of the season was way better than the first half, but by then the audience grew impatient...
Glad that Arrow went up, not so happy about Revolution's numbers- I really like this season and I don't want it to be cancelled! Boy is Ironside DOA, just like I thought it would be.
ReplyDeleteAgree with both. Happy with Arrow, but extremely worried about Revolution :s
ReplyDeleteCrossing fingers for revolution!
ReplyDeleteExactly. It would take a Nashville ratings lead of over 50% (we haven't had a chance to make a true test, but my guess is actually closer to 80%) for it to have a chance.
ReplyDeleteIgnore his classifications. It is a winner, we all agree.
ReplyDeleteWell they did have both shows above 1.0 just this tuesday.
ReplyDeleteSame. I wish Arrow could have been bigger last week to expose it more. Still time for it to grow though and in any case, as long as it doesn't free fall it is perfectly safe.
ReplyDeleteAs it should!
ReplyDeleteI think Revolution should move to Fridays at 8PM, make a genre night with Grimm and Dracula, and get out of Arrow's way. It's clear both shows are eating each other's ratings, and to me Arrow >>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Revolution.
ReplyDeleteYep,that's why i said rarely.
ReplyDelete1.4 on Wednesdays means bubble for NBC, not cancellation. Revolution was their 4th highest rated scripted show last week loosing to SVU by one tenth and the only others shows that beat it were the voice lead-outs. Kind puts it into perspective, no? It could be gone, but it could very well survive.
ReplyDeleteI am not sure NBC can afford two full priced dramas on friday night (dracula is a cheap international co-product, as is crossbones), which is why I think there was nothing paired with grimm the entire year last season. Also, I adore Revolution but I doubt it would pull 1.2s on fridays if it is pulling 1.5s/1.4s on wednesdays.
I think you overestimate that effect. Both shows air at 8 and there is plenty of time throghout the night for people to watch both shows, which would then be included in the Live+Same Day ratings, which are the ratings we see everyday. I think they hurt each other, yes, but I don't think it's that serious of an effect as you are saying.
ReplyDeleteFair enough
ReplyDeleteDo you honestly believe Revolution's low point would be that 1.4? I don't. 1.4 at October means close to 1.0 at late April means cancellation.
ReplyDeleteIt's serious enough, Arrow could've reached 1.2-1.3 without airing against Revolution.
ReplyDeleteThat is the wrong question to ask. Revolution currently sits squarely on the bubble at 72% of NBC's drama average and 83% of NBC's scripted average. The question you should ask is: will Revolution fall much behind this level come spring? Which is the same as asking whether or not the rest of NBC will fall faster than Revolution will. I for one think NBC will sink faster. The comedies will continue to under-perform horribly, I doubt any mid-season drama not called Chicago PD can improve on this average and the huge initial numbers from SVU, Chicago Fire and The Blacklist will be dissipated.
ReplyDeleteYou don't know that. It seems weird that it went up this week then when it was facing a similar sized Revolution from last week, not to mention that Revolution only feel 0.1 last week despite facing Arrow.
ReplyDeleteArrow had 0.93 last week, so it went up about the same as Revolution went down this week.
ReplyDeleteNBC would still have enough dramas to renew with SVU, Grimm, CF, and The Blacklist. The comedies are not relevant here unless they decide to air another drama next year instead of a comedy hour.
ReplyDeleteToo small of a difference = Margin of error + Rounding means it is impossible to extrapolate conclusions. Look, I am not disagreeing with you that they hurt each other by being on at the same time (I watch and love both), but I don't think that explains that huge part of the ratings as you think it does.
ReplyDeleteHuge? I'm talking about a 0.1-0.2 difference, you can't call 0.1 a margin of error and then call it huge at the same post.
ReplyDeleteMy personal opinion is that it will come down to Parenthood vs. Revolution. I think it will be (Monday-Thursday):
ReplyDelete- 3 hours of the voice
- 2 hours of comedy (they won't give up, as foolish as it may be)
- The Blacklist
- Chicago Fire
- SVU
- 2 new dramas
- Chicago PD
- one out of Parenthood or Revolution
I think TBL will be needed again to bridge the voice cycles as they won't have the olympics.
That is assuming no other new drama succeed. I personally am looking forward to Believe.
ReplyDeleteGo Job Arrow!
ReplyDeleteNo, you were saying that Arrow would have gone from 0.9 to 1.3, that is almost half a ratings point, hardly the same as a 0.1 difference.
ReplyDeleteI think Believe has a shot if NBC actually premieres it midweek, if it premieres Sundays as intended I don't think it has a decent chance of succeeding and coming back. Also, the odds of two NBC midseason dramas making it are very low.
ReplyDeleteWhat did american horror story get for ratings?
ReplyDeleteThanks man. Someone who understands how this works :)
ReplyDelete2.5
ReplyDeleteAt least two of my shows I don't have to worry ^^
ReplyDelete