Update: 21st May For those asking me, although the predictions part is over, the table is still being updated based on the ratings that are still coming in.
Update: 12th May - Final Thoughts Well another season Renewals and Cancellations has come and gone. I hope that not too many of your favourites were cancelled.
Overall we're very happy with the accuracy of our Predictions again. Here are some highlights.
- Every show we had as "Looking Safe" was renewed.
- Out of 35 Shows we had as "Likely to be Cancelled", 31 were cancelled. 1 of those, Glee, has already been renewed before the season stared. The other big shock was BATB getting renewed. Not many TV sites had predicted that.
- We had 21 shows in the "In Danger" section. 8 of those were cancelled.
See you all soon for the 2014/15 Cancellation Predictor Table!
Can't see the table? Check out our Troubleshooting Guide
NOTES - Please Read:1) The Higher the Index Rating number the more likely a show is to get cancelled, lower numbers = safety.
2) This is an ongoing exercise that I hope to refine each week to make the index more accurate.
3) Only the major networks are included currently ie ABC/FOX/CW/CBS/NBC.
4) This chart is a prediction of all the shows using our own formula based on the viewing numbers, 18-49, and + 7 Numbers. These 3 factors are the main weighting of the Index number, however we also factor in things such as the Network they are on (eg CW shows get lower numbers), the day of week they air (eg Fridays are lower numbers), DVR Numbers and +7 and +3 numbers,DVD/Blu-Ray Sales,Production Costs, Cast Contracts/Availability, Syndication, online popularity such as streamed views and Torrents, Nielsen Online Ratings etc.
5) Shows still might not get renewed despite good numbers due eg a show coming to an end of run eg HIMYM is in it's finale season no matter what the ratings are etc or could be due to key cast wanting to leave after their contracts have expired. An example might be Supernatural if it’s two leads, Jared and Jensen wanted out, would Supernatural be renewed even if it had good numbers but no leads for the new season? etc
6) Remember Ratings are relative to ratings for other shows on the same network.
7) Shows that have been renewed for a New Season are marked in Blue
8) Shows with an Index over 2.70 are likely to be cancelled, 2.40-2.70 - in danger and less that 2.40 safe. Although shows nearer 2.40 are more in danger than a show with a lower index.
9) You can access this page via either the Start or Features Menu above or simply by Bookmarking it.
Here is a direct link to the full spreadsheet.
If you have any questions/suggestions, please don't hesitate in asking in the comments below.
This is always fun.
ReplyDeleteWoohoo, it's back!
ReplyDeleteYAY!!!
ReplyDeleteLove this!!
ReplyDeleteOh woah, Fall Season is really here <3
ReplyDeleteI love this. It's always fun and usually they get it right.
ReplyDeleteCan't wait to get started
ReplyDeleteOh awesome! This season is gonna be great! :D
ReplyDeleteAnd it has begun!
ReplyDelete(Is it me or does that list seem longer than usual...?)
It is, there are actually more new shows than returning shows this season.
ReplyDeleteLucky 7 at the top as expected.
ReplyDeleteYa I tried watching it and I couldn't get past the first 15 minutes. It was horrible.
ReplyDeleteDid anyone else notice that there's not an NBC show on the list...yet?
ReplyDeleteThere are loads on the chart.Blacklist, Chicago Fire, Revolution, Law and Order,
ReplyDeleteRevolution, Blacklist, Law and Order, Chicago Fire
ReplyDeleteOne of my favourite parts of the site! Love this table even though it gives me anxiety sometimes =P. I guess since Nikita is announced as over anyway I won't have to refresh every time the ratings come out.
ReplyDeleteHa, yes. What other shows are you worried about ;)
ReplyDeleteSorry, I meant highlighted in yellow...yet
ReplyDeleteOh I see ;)
ReplyDeleteYep, as noted, this table is not going to be very accurate until the majority of shows have aired and we have 3-4 weeks of data. Premieres and pilots tend to rate high to start with but fall off a lot afterwards. By the end of Oct we should have a much clearer picture of how things are ranking.
I loved Hostages...hope it does better and sticks around!
ReplyDeleteI love that you guys do these tables, thanks for all of your hard work on our behalf!
ReplyDeleteThanks cris, that's very kind. It's our pleasure.
ReplyDeleteThis table is great, but I am so confused: What does the index actually mean? Like, 2 Broke Girls has 1.55... is that a demo-rating? What causes that to decrease or increase as the weeks pass by? I've read the rules you posted, but I still don't understand.. is anyone up for helping a TV fanatic out? :)
ReplyDeleteI missed this so much. This cancellation table has helped through a lot and will continue to help me in the future plus its also fun
ReplyDeleteNo, the number "Index" is a number that is calculated by using a number of criteria as outlined in the Notes eg Demo, Viewers, Syndication, Online, +3 viewing, +7, etc All those are put into a formula and it then gives us a number that you see in the chart above. If you look at previous years charts you will see that it's proved remarkably accurate in predicting which shows will be renewed/cancelled etc.
ReplyDeleteThis table gives me the goosebumps. :D waiting for it to get updated soon, when the other shows air.
ReplyDeleteI'm sad to see Hostages in danger, especially because I was so excited about this show but the premier was quite dissatisfying, hope it picks up. The Blacklist on the other hand, SO GOOD.
Well in terms of continuing shows actually most are fine, Beauty and the Beast is back and Hart of Dixie. Arrow is going strong so I don't see an end for that any time soon and Vampire Diaries will get another season. I watch ABC Family too which doesn't get on the table anyway and they cancelled the lying game and bunheads... pretty little liars is still going well and twisted/fosters at least got more episodes. New shows- The Tomorrow People, Originals, Almost Human and Dracula are my plan so I will be refreshing for them!
ReplyDeleteAgree with you there.. I thought it was good and hope more people watch it. The rest of the yellow - no surprise other than the fact they should be red already and that Mom wasn't yellow already. I'm on the fence about a couple of new shows though.
ReplyDeleteThere are now.
ReplyDeleteI'm a big fan of the cancellation predictor table, it was fun last year.
ReplyDeleteAnother two more seasons of Supernatural please...
ReplyDeleteI'll be really surprised if Hostages, Lucky 7, Betrayal, Mom and Dads aren't cancelled soon. Mindy Project might survive because its in season 2.
ReplyDeletestill too man episodes from syndication for Mindy to survive, at the end of this season it would still need 2 full seasons I just dont see it surviving but it will obviously depend on the rest of FOX's line up and their pilot slate.
ReplyDeleteits highly unlikely Hostages will suddenly start doing well enough for a renewal. The question now is if CBS will air out all 15 episodes, reduce the order or yank it off the schedule?
ReplyDeleteAmerican Dad is renewed but moving to TBS after this season!
ReplyDeleteThanks, I'll make sure its updated for the next update.
ReplyDeleteI was hoping for it to stick around to tell the story and not get yanked half way through, I haven't thought about renewal of anything yet! Just have to wait and see I guess.
ReplyDeleteWhat I would change:
ReplyDelete- Mom: In Danger
- The Mindy Project: In Danger
- We Are Men: Likely to Be Cancelled
- The Mentalist: In Danger (or Likely to Be Cancelled)
- The Good Wife: In Danger
- Nashville: In Danger
- Revolution: In Danger
- Trophy Wife: In Danger
- Back in the Game: In Danger
- Brooklyn Nine-Nine: In Danger
"Mom" won't be cancelled soon I think. CBS will pull the plug on We Are Men, but they won't pull the plug on two of their comedies, plus Hostages. I think Mom will get a timeslot change to see if it improves. Although it hasn't been building on 2Broke Girls, it has been retaining almost all of its rating; the problem is said rating has been very low to begin with. Plus, it's Chuck Lore, so it will get a chance.
ReplyDeleteAs for Dads, I think it will be cancelled, but I doubt it will be pulled as soon as some are expecting.
Dark, is there a systematic way to find the online, +3 viewing, +7 viewing for all shows? Thanks
ReplyDeleteNot easily. They tend to be released piece meal via network press releases.
ReplyDeleteOr you can get the whole tables via Nielsen http://www.nielsen.com/us/en/client-login.html
If you drop me an email I can email you an example of what they send out each week.
ReplyDeleteThanks! So you have to pay to access those Nielsen tables, right? Sorry to bother with this, it's just curiosity and also sometimes there are details I would like to know when I try to understand why one bubble show was picked over the other. And since I am taking advantage of you being nice, does it also show the demo breakdown? Like 18-34, Male or Female, etc? Thanks
ReplyDeleteDrop me an email and I'll send you the spreadsheets so you can see for yourself ;)
ReplyDeleteWill do, thanks!
ReplyDeleteThe "Notes" section I think needs to be updated slightly... in the fifth item on the list it says Fringe is in it's final season.
ReplyDeleteI love this chart, its such fun!
ReplyDeleteI think there is a problem on the chart near the bottom there is a show called 1.63 on NBC.
ReplyDeleteThanks. That should be Law and Order : SVU.
ReplyDeleteI'll make sure it's fixed for tomorrow's update.
For people who very maturely downvote me, I was not, by any mean, expressing a personal preference for the shows, but rather an opinion on their survival's chances.
ReplyDeleteMindy's Project is so good! I don't get why people don't like it!
ReplyDeleteHi Dark ! Do you think CSI's 14th season is the last ?
ReplyDeleteToo early to tell. We really need 3-4 weeks of data.
ReplyDeleteI have a suggestion: How about you post what numbers actually have been updated?
ReplyDeleteFor example on a Wednesday, I only wanna see how the numbers of New Girl, The Mindy Project, Agents of SHIELD etc. (the shows that aired the night before) have changed. Is it possible to somehow post the old and new Index Rating of the shows that have been updated that day at the top of the page so I don't have to go back and compare it with the old chart?
Something like that would be so awesome.
Tom, nearly all the numbers get updated even if a show doesn't air.
ReplyDeleteA lot of the numbers are relative, so if a Show on ABC does really well then the other shows with a smaller rating gets adjusted, likewise if a Show does really badly then the other shows on that network get adjusted.
Oh okay, I didn't know that :) thanks for the quick answer. it obviously wouldn't make sense to post all of those numbers above...
ReplyDeleteYep, what you can do if you are really interested is to save the image each time we make a new update, then you can compare the images. However you should probably wait until we have at least 3-4 weeks of data and the numbers flucuate a lot
ReplyDeleteI actually did that last season for quite some time once a week with the additional information of which show moves down, which show moves up etc.
ReplyDeleteI would love to do something for SpoilerTV based on your Index, if you're interested.
Drop me an email tomorrow and we can see what we can do. I'm just off to bed ;)
ReplyDeletewill do. I'm off to bed, too.
ReplyDeleteAwesome sauce )
ReplyDeleteWe have the first "winner": Lucky 7 :)
ReplyDeleteHostages need to explain more, or else its going to get cancelled , because of the what next factor... they kill the president in 2 weeks then what, they don't kill and keep dragging the Hostage situation long till everyone gets Stockholm syndrome.
ReplyDeleteIronside might get cancelled, I felt the first episode was too much all at once, maybe they didn't need to explain his handicap station in the first episode, maybe later would have been fine, and on top of that they made it seem like everyone in the show was a bad ass character of its type, the main character Ironside the handicap that can pack a punch and get girls like a pro, Virgil the they break the door, blunt in your face guy, Teddy the accountant smart man in the team, Holly the hot chick, but good detective with shady connections? former messed up in partner, the Asian Boss a friend and a boss... too much all at once.
Betrayal Infidelity...
Why likely to be cancelled is beginning on 2.71 ? I thought it was beginning after 2.75
ReplyDeleteSorry, I did not update the Color Code descriptions. We tweaked the formula based on the last 2 years of doing this. Anything over 2.70 is now considered Likely to be cancelled.
ReplyDeleteWhen I next update the chart I'll be sure to update the descriptions on the table.
Ok thanks for the information :)
ReplyDeleteI like Hostages but idk if it will be picked up. I doubtit, they might do what they they did for the Ashley Judd show Missing and call it a "mini series"
ReplyDeleteMissing was a decent show and had a really sucky cliffhanger-ish ending.
ReplyDeleteHow come White Collar isn't on the list at all? It's premiering this month too right.
ReplyDeleteThe table only covers shows on broadcast networks. White Collar is on USA which is cable.
ReplyDeleteBecause it does not air on a Broadcast Channel. Please read the notes that explain what this chart is ;)
ReplyDeleteYes just did, thanks.
ReplyDeleteRead it now, thanks :)
ReplyDeleteCool ;)
ReplyDeleteWhite Collar will have a shortened season; supposedly so Graceland can come back early.
ReplyDeleteAside from premiere episode, season finale and specialty episode- cancellation announcements are the most entertaining and intriguing part of the tv process. im excited to see who stays and go its like a sporting event- blood bath.
ReplyDeleteHart of Dixie is always in danger but I love how Cw renews. God I hope I dont jinx things. its amazing and deserves to be renewed
ReplyDeleteIt's on a Sunday so it gets by.
ReplyDeleteIt's funny I keep seeing Hostages come up in cancellation discussions. But I thought it was a limited run anyway that it was purposefully only like a 15 episode or something show, not meant to be a full series? So I dont see why it would be cancelled? Its odd that it isn't doing better since Toni Collette is simply fabulous as usual and actually Dylan McDermott who I can usually take or leave is pretty good as well. I do know someone who stopped watching it because they felt it was too intense after the second episode.
ReplyDeleteBeauty and the beast - Likely to be cancelled
ReplyDeleteLOL Beasties. Where are you now.
Bones should have ended last season. I really hope it doesn't get renewed - I want it to come to an end.
ReplyDeleteI don't know why so many think that but the show is not a limited series. It was supposed to be a full fledged show but with these ratings one season is all it'll get.
ReplyDeleteIt's that time of year!
ReplyDeleteYou forgot to put Us and Them at the top of the list the way you did with Murder Police. I'm loving this table!
ReplyDeleteThat's because US and Them will actually air, so they will be ratings to add. Murder Police was cancelled and the episodes will not air :)
ReplyDeleteThe two shows on your Likely-to-be-Cancelled list that I think are worth saving are: "Hostages" and "Betrayal." If CBS changes it's time slot so it doesn't go up against "The Black List," then "Hostages" stands a chance of finding/keeping an audience. "Betrayal" has a good lead-in with "Revenge" but the cast (with the exception of the lovely Brit, Hannah Ware) is just not attractive enough for what is basically a romantic drama--the husband & boyfriend could be clones. Plus, "Betrayal" is filmed on location in Chicago--and very, very few series survive with the Windy City as a backdrop (even the very excellent "Boss" was cancelled after two seasons on Showtime).
ReplyDeleteOh, I completely forgot that! Good thinking!
ReplyDeleteNot necessarily bad, but the network (FOX) wanted the show to go in a different direction, and are instead trying to shop the series to other networks that may like the creative direction the show was taking.
ReplyDeleteWhy do people keep assuming things are limited-run series? It has 15 episodes instead of 13 or 22, granted, but Hostages was just as viable to be renewed as any other show.
ReplyDeleteBasically, no series that ever airs on television is a one-time thing (not talking cancelled, talking specifically ending it after a single season). They always have hopes of renewing it.
Nope. Intended for 15-episode seasons, so it was a limited series, but never a mini-series. It was fully able to be renewed had the ratings been good.
ReplyDeleteThe showrunner said that they have a plan in mind to to run it for multiple seasons, but each season will have only 15 episodes.
ReplyDeleteSeeing Hart of Dixie in ''In danger'' section makes me sad!
ReplyDeleteWhere is OUAT in Wonderland?
ReplyDeleteIt will be added when we do the next update early next week.
ReplyDeleteAlways enjoy this, but Wow, y'all love to live on the edge..you are going to get flack..Beauty & the Beast likely to be cancelled. lol Did not care much for last year, but this last ep looked a little better. Supernatural is my show.
ReplyDeleteLying Game is cancelled??? How did I miss this? Heck!!
ReplyDeleteHa, well the numbers very rarely lie ;)
ReplyDeleteShould be there now in the latest update.
ReplyDeleteHart of Dixie is one season away from having enough episodes to go into syndication, so it has a better chance of renewal than Beauty and the Beast which has two seasons to go. I'm expecting some kind of renewal for it, although if things go too low, it may be a Nikita like few episodes to wrap up hanging threads and not a full season to hit 88 episodes.
ReplyDeleteI agree with you. I hope more people watch Hart of Dixie though. Cw Should have Renewed Secret Circle and Ringer
ReplyDeleteand again, we fight for Beauty and the Beast. Love this show. Hate that I live in Germany.
ReplyDeleteI watch BATB on Sundays in Canada, on Showcase channel. I don't get the CW channel so cannot watch it on Monday nights. Does that have an adverse affect on the ratings?
ReplyDeleteUnless you have a Nielsen Ratings Box installed in your home, then no.
ReplyDeleteThe Mentalist doesn't look good. :-/ Any chance it will be just in its final season?? I actually hope so.
ReplyDeleteThis says it was updated on the 15th but when I open it I keep getting the same table from the 9th. Is this right?
ReplyDeletePress Ctrl-F5 on the full image. It sounds like your browser has cached the old copy
ReplyDeletePlease make The Mentalist last -at least- one more season !!! The show is so much more interesting than things like CSI with its 15 seasons...
ReplyDeleteHart of Dixie is looking safe now. yeah!
ReplyDeleteOnly just ;)
ReplyDeleteCW with only one show in red/yellow. Shocking!
ReplyDeleteBrooklyn 99 is funny! Give it a shot! 3 1/2 men is a bomb these days!
ReplyDeleteSo... how much longer until NBC pulls Welcome To the Family in exchange for Community?
ReplyDeleteI absolutely hate this because BATB is an amazing show! It's on a bad night and the fact that it has gotten ZERO promotion from the CW hasn't helped. I bet if they had made half an effort like they did for The Originals we would be seeing something totally different. It's up against stiff competition that night & yes I think them airing it a night early does affect the ratings because they put it online for people who then download it which then affects the ratings for people to watch it live. Domino effect. I do wonder if maybe it would do better on Friday nights. The fan base is there for the show. If it wasn't it wouldn't have been renewed for a 2nd season in the first. We're the ones doing the promoting for the show not the network which really sucks! Thank goodness my other favorite SPN is kicking ass!
ReplyDeleteI think if The Mentalist is renewed, it will be a "okay, but this is the last time," renewal. I think it will end after this season, and I kinda want it to-I'm not tired of it in the slightest, but I think it's getting to be time.
ReplyDeleteDid I miss the announcement about US and Them being cancelled?
ReplyDeleteI'm confused hart of dixie got 0.4 how does that qualify it to be safe?
ReplyDeletehttp://www.spoilertv.com/2013/10/us-and-them-episode-order-reduced.html
ReplyDeleteSyndication
ReplyDeleteThe production was stopped, but there is no official cancellation yet.
ReplyDeleteQuestion: How come "Us & Them" is highlighted black in the white "unaired" section, but "Muder Police", which also never aired is highlighted black and given a rating at the top. If both shows never aired, where did that rating come from? Shouldn't it be blank & black down in the white area alongside "Us & Them"?
ReplyDeleteMurder Police never aired. Us and Them will air and will have ratings.
ReplyDeleteI really like this site. I don't want Revolution to be cancelled.
ReplyDeleteGood, Bones looks safe!
ReplyDeleteBatB has so many International Fans across the globe - literally - who most probably do not contribute to these ratings due to reluctancy to download accessibility for fear of getting virus on the computer. This is one example. There may be others. This show is so much loved by so many fans. It is becoming more intriguing and exciting with each episode. This show is the love of all the Beasties. CW PLEASE NOTE!
ReplyDeleteI don't want BATB to be cancelled!! I really like this show.
ReplyDeleteDark : What's your own opinion about the chance CSI has to get a new season ? Do you think Mentalist will be cancelled ?
ReplyDeleteThanks ! :)
ReplyDeleteOf whats currently airing on NBC Revolution is in its top 5 shows (Blacklist, Chiago Fire, Law and Order, Micheal J Fox, Revolution). Hannibal and Grimm are the only 2 second year shows currently not airing on NBC. That means NBC can't cancel Revolution because they would be putting all their faith in new shows to bring in big ratings which is extremely likely, at least a couple new shows will crash and burn.
ReplyDeleteAlso while I agree FOX should cancel Dads and Mindy project all their actions indicate they won't. Mom's and sean saves the world had more scripts ordered so i doubt they will be cancelled.
Revolution is actually one of NBC top shows, thats how bad the network is doing. If they cancel they are stupid because they will be putting all their trust in new shows to pull in big ratings like dracula, believe, crisis, night shift and crossbones.
ReplyDeleteHi, this site is amazing! I know next to nothing about all of this but was wondering how you came to place Reign in the looking safe category? I'm a fan so I was glad to see that, but had been concerned when I heard it got fairly low ratings. I was just wondering if you have any insight on that?
ReplyDeleteI don't watch Hart of Dixie but I predict it will get renewed because of syndication. Also it's a lot cheaper to produce than BatB,
ReplyDeleteAny word about the NBC show Siberia?
ReplyDeleteIt was not actually a NBC Show. They just purchased the rights to air it.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.sierra-engine.com/Library_Details.aspx?FilmID=d89568ca-011c-4ed9-b4cf-3fc4ed0029aa
It's assumed cancelled as the NBC press site removed all their pages for Siberia and there has been no update.
I emailed both NBC and the company who made it but they have not yet replied.
All signs point to Season 1 being the only season.
I think Beauty and the beast will be safe there high than last year and it so much better than last season.
ReplyDeletehigh is bad, the higher to the top(right zone) the more likely to be cancelled. currently its the most likely to be cancelled show.
ReplyDeletebut the shows is higher than hart of Dixie. i think hart of Dixie is in more danger to be cut. The fan are not really happy that the story line keep told over and over again.
ReplyDeleteno you are completely misunderstanding the chart. look at the notes above the comment section of this page and also read the index on the chart.
ReplyDeleteon the chart red means really likely to be cancelled, yellow means in danger, green means likely safe.
Beauty and the beast according to the chart is the show most likely to be cancelled.
Hart of dixie is less likely to be cancelled because it is really close to synidcation. Synidcation means when a show gets 80 epsiodes it can be reaired during the day like gilmore girls, friends, etc and they can make more money off the show.
Like i said before the higher the number for the show on the chart the more likely the show is to be cancelled. You should ask Dark UFO to explain this to you he runs this site and can explain it better than me.
Mentalist gets better ratings than Bones and yet it is in jeopardy. Take mentalist off of doomsday sunday and it might perform like it used to.
ReplyDeleteBATB gets the most views on most sites and all reviews always have positive comments or feedback by fans and even yet, we all 'like' or thumbs up each others comments but still the show might get cancelled, its slightly upsetting - we win so many polls online and were in the running again for peoples choice which we won last year against all these shows which apparently aren't going to be cancelled :(
ReplyDeleteThat is factually incorrect, not to mention irrelevant. Shows are compared to shows within the same network so comparing The Mentalist with Bones is irrelevant for their survival chances. Moreover, Bones has averaged a 2.1 this season so far, while The Mentalist has averaged a paltry 1.4. How is that getting better ratings?
ReplyDeleteYour perception that quality has improved this season has nothing to do with its renewal likelihood, which depends on its ratings
ReplyDelete- The Mindy Project could eke out another season due to its 18-34 performance. It is a bubble show
ReplyDelete- Parks and Recreation is a bubble show because it is the highest rated NBC comedy and gets syndication money from additional episodes.
- Revolution and Parenthood are bubble shows
- CSI is a likely almost certain renewal. Why would CBS cancel it when it is doing better than Elementary, Hostages, The Mentalist, The Good Wife, Hawaii Five-0 and Blue Bloods? Unless you think CBS intends to premiere 6 new dramas next fall?
- Hart of Dixie will be renewed for syndication purposes
More scripted means nothing about cancellation prospects, that's a common misconception.
ReplyDeleteWhy would CSI end?!
ReplyDeleteIrrelevant arguments...
ReplyDelete1. If people don't download because of virus fears (what a strange argument), then its numbers are not counted for illegal downloads...
2. ... but these illegal downloads are worth 0 to advertisers to begin with. So even if 10.00000 people would download Beauty and the Beast, it would be worth 0 and would be cancelled if it didn't have the necessary US Liv+SD ratings.
It is a bubble show right now. My feeling is that it will come down to one out of Revolution and Parenthood. One will be cancelled and the other renewed, it's what I feel.
ReplyDeleteWow, I had no idea BATB was doing that badly. Hope they give us a good ending tho.
ReplyDeleteI thought Dads had a full season order??
ReplyDeleteIt does. Still does not mean it's not likely to be cancelled.
ReplyDeleteUnfortunately those things simply don't matter in terms of whether a show gets renewed or cancelled. Lots of great shows have been cancelled in the past due to poor viewer ratings
ReplyDeleteYou explained just fine.:)
ReplyDeleteI don't like Dads so I was suprised to see that it has a full season order, but yeah you're right, it doesn't mean that they get a second season.
ReplyDeleteI know this is based on a specific system of ratings and things, but even though Dads is listed in the danger zone, Fox picked it up for a full 22 episodes this season.
ReplyDeleteTo be fair, all common sense says that show should have been cancelled.
ReplyDeleteYep, a full order makes no difference.
ReplyDeleteThis table is for if a show will get a new season or not :)
-Parks and Recreation's ratings are sturggling a bit aren't they? Think NBC will cancel it unless the ratings perk up.
ReplyDelete-Revolution's ratings are depleting. Worrying since it's supposedly better than last season. How NBC would keep it if while the show's getting better, the ratings are getting worse would be a mystery. Parenthood's ratings aren't any better.
-I don't agree. As I said, Hostages will get cancelled and I think The Mentalist will too. H50 and Blue Bloods air on Fridays and get syndication at the end of the season so they'll stay. Elementary's ratings aren't what they were, but it'll survive. Predicting CSI to be cancelled was my major risk of failure. CBS have had so much success with it over the years that it's likely they'll stick with it.
-I think it depends on how strong their new shows come off and how good their pilots next year look. If they're better, then Hart of Dixie will go.
Blast! But thank you for the info!
ReplyDeleteI always love seeing these lists; I am usually very good at predicting what shows will get cancelled.
ReplyDelete- I realize this is like saying that TDW hit a season low this week (as in completely misleading because of so high it still is) but Parks is still the highest rated NBC comedy and in the toughest slot of them all nonetheless. Remember also that it will change slots midseason to the 8h30 slot where it perked up in the ratings last year, so things could conceivably get better ratings wise for it. If NBC wants a returning comedy, even as a spackle, I don't see how it is not Parks. They could start from scratch again and they probably will have to, but as they show us year after year, a backup comedy is always a good thing, especially when you premiere a whole lot of new ones. It is a true tossup as it stands.
ReplyDelete- You have the wrong sort of thinking when it comes to NBC bubble show. The question you have to ask yourself is this: how can NBC fill those 12 Monday-Thursday hours next fall? The Voice takes 3 hours, The Blacklist+Chicago Fire+SVU another three hours. Assuming 2 hours for comedy (and it is quite possible that they go with 1 only so I am being pessimistic) and assuming 1 midseason show renewal (which is far from a given too, so again, I am being pessimistic, but let's say Chicago PD gets it) that's another three hours. Now, NBC is very unlikely to premiere 3 new dramas on the Monday-Thursday schedule when they will already have to premiere at least 3 new comedies (if they don't premiere 3 new comedies, they have space for one more returning drama, so the argument is even easier). That means that there is one extra slot to fill. While they could in theory use TBL, remember that next year there are no Olympics, so TBL will be needed to bridge the voice hiatus again (there is also the strong chance that it is used to finally solve NBC Spring Sunday problems). I think Parenthood or Revolution get the other slot. It's too soon to tell which and I would need a bigger ratings gap than we currently have to feel confident to give the edge to one or the other. Remember, just because when compared to other networks Revolution's ratings are depleting, it doesn't mean they are in NBC's context. Last week, Monday-Thursday, the only shows to beat it were the voice and the voice lead-outs.
- I don't get your argument. If CBS has had success with CSI, why would they cancel it? CSI is completely safe, it is not going anywhere this year. When it is no longer fit for a midweek (which it perfectly still is) it will still have a relatively longer life on CBS's graveyeards ,Sunday or Friday. I don't see any scenario this year in which it ends up cancelled. Certainly not before The Mentalist, The Good Wife and Elementary and CBS will not axe all those dramas.
- No. Hart of Dixie's fate is not contingent on pilot season development. If anything, if the gap between The Tomorrow People and HOD widens and if Star Crossed and The 100 are both big CW hits, then Hart of Dixie would be in trouble. But the combination of factors it would require is very unlikely. It is a very safe bet for a Friday spot next season.
I can see your arguments. With CSI, I have no real reason behind it. Just a small out of the box prediction.
ReplyDeleteWhich shows do you think will get cancelled?
ReplyDeleteOut of the ones we are talking about? One out of Parenthood/Revolution, The Mentalist and Hostages. I don't exclude the cancellation of Parks or of the other one out of Parenthood/Revolution but I don't see compelling arguments to swing that way at the moment. They are toss ups.
ReplyDeleteI meant more in general of all shows that you think will get cancelled.
ReplyDeleteCertain to be cancelled (as in <10% chance of being renewed):
ReplyDelete- Trophy Wife (unless moved)
- Betrayal
- Once Upon a Time in Wonderland
- Hostages
- The Mentalist (I feel less safe about this one then the others, but still)
- Beauty and the Beast
- The Carrie Diaries
- Sean Saves the World
Please tell me, with these numbers BATB is right on the bubble for cancellation? Very worried.
ReplyDeleteWow just because its on Mondays still the best show. #batb
ReplyDeleteThat unfortunate, i can understand but still hard to fully acknowledge or accept because its my favourite programme. Anything with Romance catches my eye and this programme is ultimately about love unlike other shows which have other concepts i.e Arrow focus' more on the battles than the love interest even though i like the show also
ReplyDeleteThe show is likely to be cancelled, yes.
ReplyDeleteCan't possibly see Revolution getting the axe. It's a great show with a long story to tell and
ReplyDeleteI don;t think they have even gotten to the "meat" of what's going on in that universe. I really would love to see where the story is going to go and cancelling Revolution would be a shame.
- Geo
Why are not you including Grimm?
ReplyDeleteWe forgot to the process the Friday ratings for Grimm, they will be added in when we do tomorrow's update.
ReplyDeleteBut I can let you know it currently has a score of around 2.20-2.25 so it's in the green ;)
ReplyDeleteIf the ratings fall any further then it might get cancelled.
ReplyDeleteI agree part of it. Bones will end a mess at 10 seasons like other shows near 10. Too bad cbs will not move it. Fox has a lower barrier.
ReplyDeleteI thin Mentalist has better than10. Seems like promo before the reveal. Ithink it has a higher renewal chance.
ReplyDeleteIf they bring on good fill ins for cast leaving it will last a couple more though I think Baker will end it at 7 at the most. Not a big tv watcher of other shows I am fine with both. I can see writers announce 7 is last.
ReplyDeleteYou got the wrong color for Back in the Game.
ReplyDeleteOpps, teach me to post before my 2nd coffee of the morning ;)
ReplyDeleteShould be fixed now, thanks.
CBS can move CSI to Sundays next year or Survivor if needs be. A TAR-Survivor on Sundays would likely perform decently.
ReplyDeleteIs bones in danger???!!
ReplyDeletePlese someone answer my question
ReplyDeleteNo, it's not in danger.
ReplyDeleteCan you not see the table?
ReplyDeleteThis season 'The Good Wife' is on very good level, I hope it continues in the same way and get the renewal.
ReplyDeleteFor me, it's a bubble show. You can look at it as a show that has yet to premiere. I think it's Monday ratings are meaningless now, it will all depend on 1) How it does on Friday (hence me saying that it's like it hasn't premiered yet and 2) How contract negotiations go. My guess would be that it will be back though
ReplyDeleteI am loving this season a lot but, unfortunately Revolution is indeed a bubble show at this point. It could go either way.
ReplyDeleteParks went up suddenly... especially since no episodes aired.
ReplyDeleteThat is quite normal. Remember things are all relative within a Network. If other shows do well, then shows that are below the network average will change their ranking etc.
ReplyDeleteNo... I love Beauty and the Beast... love Cat and Vincent!!! In Brazil, the series is a big success...
ReplyDeletehoping Reign and Once upon a time in wonderland dont get cancelled
ReplyDeleteNot complaining, love Parks, glad its bounced up.
ReplyDeleteDracula is already in 'in danger' section. That's very sad. And The Originals is better than Arrow. Thats weird. I love both shows.
ReplyDeleteI disagree with Dracula being in danger so soon. It's still at an acceptable range. 70% of relevant average for a Friday show is bubble territory or likely renewal but when you factor in that it is a very cheap co-production it gets even more favorable. Hannibal got renewed on a weekday with considerable lower ratings - also another cheap co-production. I would leave it as high-end bubble show or low end likely renewal show for now.
ReplyDeleteUnfortunately, Wonderland is a very likely cancellation at this point.
ReplyDeleteI think it depends less on the ratings and more on two factors: 1) Does Intelligence succeeds and 2) What syndication deal does Blue Bloods gets? Better ratings will help sure, but I don't think they are the most relevant part of the story at this point.
ReplyDeletei know it sucks, i love Naveen Andrews as jafar. he my favorite in that show.
ReplyDeleteThey better not take Revolution away... Despite how weird it's gotten this season, I still watch it every week and look forward to it more than most shows.
ReplyDeleteits weird that revenge and nashville basically get the same ratings but yet nashville is in danger and revenge is looking safe
ReplyDeleteIt's because of syndication.
ReplyDeleteI really hope The Mentalist can stick around for another season as well as Bones, Law & Order SVU and Castle.
ReplyDelete