NOTE: This is last years table. To access the most recent table, click here.
Update: 18th May We'll here is the final Cancellation Table for the 2010/2011 TV Season. We hope you've enjoyed this feature and have been following along with us. Overall I'm very pleased with the accuracy of the table despite a few shock renewals (Chuck, Fringe).
We'll be doing this again with an improved formula to make it even more accurate for the 2011/2012 TV Season.
Update: 16th May Updated with the latest numbers along with all the recent renewals and Cancellations
Update: 13th May Updated with the latest numbers along with all the recent renewals and Cancellations
Update: 11th May Updated with the latest numbers and the FOX Cancellations/Renewals
Update: 10th May Updated with the latest numbers.
Update: 6th May Updated with the latest numbers.
Update: 3rd May Updated with the latest numbers. Also includes Bones renewal.
Update: 27th April Updated with the latest numbers. Also includes the new CW Renewals. Also Hellcats moves into the In Danger zone.
Update: 20th April Updated with the latest numbers.
Welcome to this years SpoilerTV Cancellation Predictor.Last year each week we updated our data (see the notes below about how we get our data) in order to see if we could predict which show(s) would be renewed or cancelled. As you can see from last years summary, we did pretty well, with the exception of Flashforward, 24, Ghost Whisperer and Law and Order we got a lot correct.
Click here for last Last Years Summary
This index is by no means a 100% accurate guide about if your show is safe or in danger and should be seen as a bit of FUN.
(Click to Enlarge - updated 18th May 2011)
Link to Previous Chart
So how safe is your show? Sound off in the comments. Also if you spot any mistakes or have any questions please let me know in the comments.
Notes:
1) The Higher the Index Rating the more likely a show is to get cancelled, lower numbers = safety.
2) Not all shows appear in the labels of this post due to limit in the software.
3) This is an ongoing exercise that I hope to refine each week to make the index more accurate.
4) Only the major networks are included currently ie ABC/FOX/CW/CBS/NBC. We hope to include cable and others if time permits.
5) This is a weekly update of all the shows using our own formula based on the viewing numbers and + 7 Numbers. These 2 factors are the main weighting of the Index number, however we also factor in things such as the Network they are on (eg CW shows get lower numbers), the day of week they air (eg Fridays are lower numbers), DVR Numbers and +7 numbers,DVD/Blu-Ray Sales,Production Costs, Cast Contracts/Availability, Syndication, online popularity such as streamed views and Torrents etc.
6) Shows still might not get renewed despite good numbers due eg a show coming to an end of run eg Smallville is in it's finale season no matter what the ratings are etc or could be due to key cast wanting to leave after their contracts have expirted. An example might be Supernatural if it’s two leads, Jared and Jensen wanted out, would Supernatural be renewed even if it had good numbers but no leads for the new season? etc
6) New Shows that have been picked up for a Full Season are marked in Dark Green
7) Shows that have been renewed for a New Season are marked in Blue
8) Shows with an Index over 3.00 are likely to be cancelled, 2.50-2.99 - in danger and less that 2.50 safe. Although shows nearer 2.50 are more in danger than a show with a lower index.
If you have any questions, please don't hesitate in asking in the comments below.
Update: 19th October We've just added below our summary prediction table. This is a little different to the Full Table as it's based on some "gut" feels and not just the raw numbers. We'll update this chart below as shows get renewed/cancel,to see how accurate we are this year. You can view last years predictions here.
Here are this years predictions. Agree/Disagree with any of them?
Remember these predictions below were made after 4 Episodes of each show.
So far ....
20 Shows that we predicted to be cancelled have since been cancelled
40 Shows that we predicted would be renewed have been renewed
7 Shows that we had "In Danger" have been renewed
10 Shows that we had as Likely To Be Renewed have been cancelled.
Predictions Posted on 19th October (Status updated on 18th May)
