Hey guys!
Last day! As usual, I thank everyone who has been participating! I hope this is being as fun for you as it's been for me! I will probably be doing a wrap up post tomorrow to sum up all the guesses!
Anyway, back to business! For those of you that are new to the drill, I welcome you to the Fall TV Preview initiative, in which we try to see which one of us is best with the crystal ball in previewing the rating for our favorite shows in the fall! I share my predictions with some analysis and then I invite you to submit your own! Hopefully, at the end of the season, we can all have fun comparing the results!
Previous posts (The prediction forms will be open until the week before the start of the official season which is when some of the stuff starts to premiere, so feel free to go back and submit your predictions):
- Monday Shows
- Tuesday Shows
- Wednesday Shows
- Thursday Shows
Fridays and Sundays
Once Upon a Time (2.19 Last Year)
Lead-in: Local Programming
Lead-out: Resurrection/ American Crime
Episode Order: 22
Competition:Sunday Night Football/?, Madam Secretary, The Simpsons & Brooklyn Nine-Nine
The Pros
• Season 3-B was practically even year to year and that’s after accounting for the general broadcast decline! That suggests a very positive trend and makes for a very promising Season 4 outlook!
• The split season treatment that did wonders for the show will continue this year.
• Even if I am not sure how relevant that is since most of the competition on this night comes from cable, broadcast wise the competition is likely to get easier with CBS replacing TAR with Madam Secretary.
• Frozen has created a considerable amount of hype for the show during this summer.
The Cons
• Even if 3-B had a wonderful trend, the season as a whole was still down 20%. For a serialized show like OUAT, that’s still very concerning regardless of the spin!
• OUAT’s audience is certainly a fickle one that will not watch if it doesn’t like the current arc. So while Frozen appears to have created enough hype around it, a poor execution may push viewers away. Besides, we still have no idea what’s the arc to be covered in 4-B, so there is potential for one as poorly received as the never land one.
The Verdict: Maybe I am being biased here but I tend to think that the show really got its act together in 3-B, and the ratings do support this. I think OUAT will be ok during fall and maybe even have some episodes up year to year. Perhaps its greatest challenge will be finding an arc worthy enough of 4-B, when the comparisons will get trickier. I say it eventually manages to do so and that the ship gets steadied, with OUAT taking a drop on par with the overall broadcasters.
The Guess: 1.97 (-10%)
Potential for Major Deviation: Average
Resurrection (2.51 Last Year)
Lead-in: Once Upon a Time
Lead-out: Revenge
Episode Order: 15-16 episodes
Competition: Sunday Night Football, The Good Wife, Family Guy & Mulaney, The Walking Dead, Homeland, Boardwalk Empire, Downtown Abbey
The Pros
• Getting to air in the fall when viewing levels are its highest, is a much better situation than airing entirely in the spring like Resurrection did last year.
The Cons
• Did you see that downwards trend during 8 episodes? Resurrection was trending downwards FAST and there’s certainly potential for that to continue heading into the fall
• Resurrection benefited from having the entire ABC promotional machine focused on it during Spring! No such luck this year as ABC focuses all its efforts on Shonda-Thursday and the other new shows, leaving Resurrection pretty much needing to fend for itself. And Resurrection is still a pretty much new show to have a loyal audience to carry through after summer hiatus!
• Competition in this crazy slot certainly never gets easier.
The Verdict: While I do think the Season 1 drops were a bit overblown out of proportion (there were a number of weeks in which it really didn’t fluctuate more than 1 tenth, which IMO is the same as being stable), they were still sizable, so I cannot ignore them either. I am also very concerned about the effect that the lack of promotion will have on the show. Still, I do think the show is at least as strong as Revenge was when airing here a year ago and that airing in the fall will be enough of an advantage for this to work out okay (though far from the promise the first episode showed).
The Guess: 1.80 (-28%)
Potential for Major Deviation: Average
Revenge (1.55 Last Year)
Lead-in: Resurrection/American Crime
Lead-out: Local Programming
Episode Order: 22 episodes
Competition: Sunday Night Football, CSI, The Talking Dead/?, The Affair/?, The Newsroom/?
The Pros
• The Season 3 finale got a better word of mouth and critical love than Season 2 and 3 together ever did, so if there was ever a time in which it was possible to lure back viewers that would be now.
• Airing at 10pm out of Resurrection/American Crime and away from some of the cable heavy lifters might still be a better proposition for Revenge than airing at 9pm out of OUAT and facing the likes of TWD et all, even in light of the disappointing late spring results Revenge had.
The Cons
• As much as I want to believe that viewers will be back, how often does that really happen in heavily serialized shows like this? Once gone, it’s gone, so Revenge will need to work with what it has left and it’s not much.
• Being at 10pm means that the dependence on the lead-in is stronger than ever. If Resurrection collapses major time, Revenge may come down with it. Besides, it will have American Crime as lead-in during Spring, which may be another Resurrection as easily as it could be another Red Widow!
• Being down 28% year to year is just a horrible trend. And unlike fellow Sunday show OUAT, Revenge’s trend didn’t exactly sort itself in Spring, which means the problems should carry through next season.
• Revenge may be away from some cable heavy lifters, but it’s not like the hour doesn’t have plenty of competition either. Besides, even broadcast wise, CSI should provide a fiercer competition than The Mentalist represented last year.
The Verdict: I want to believe that Revenge will be a stronger show now, but like I’ve said, the year to year trend is not exactly inspiring. If the lead-ins help up well and if the season is as good creatively as the finale made it sound I could see it having a good year but those are two pretty big ifs to stand for and I don't feel confident enough to bet on both of them happening. I think Revenge does ok in the fall propped up by a high 1s Resurrection but ends up giving those gains away come spring when American Crime takes over as its lead-in.
The Guess: 1.26 (-19%)
Potential for Major Deviation: Average
Brooklyn Nine-Nine (1.50 Last Year)
Lead-in: The Simpsons
Lead-out: Family Guy
Episode Order: 22-24 episodes
Competition: Sunday Night Football/?, Madam Secretary, Once Upon a Time
The Pros
• The Simpsons is easily a stronger lead-in than Dads or New Girl were last year.
• B99 was gathering some momentum during winter in its last Tuesday 8h30 episodes last year. I believe what really hurt it last year was the pairing with the super incompatible New Girl. A pairing with male skewing shows is just what the doctor ordered so B99 could potentially gain big from a move to the cartoon block.
• Sundays are an overall higher viewed day and while they usually also carry more competition, that front is surprisingly light on comedies which means B99 may have a legit upgrade situation here.
• B99 was one of the best received shows from last season. That means it’s one of the likeliest candidates to have a sophomore bounce as people get caught up.
The Cons
• The cartoons may be more compatible skew wise but may also not mix well with live action comedies. This is a big gamble which entails big chances of it not working at all.
• B99 received the highest possible sampling opportunity a show might have for in the form of a post super bowl slot and didn’t really take advantage. Chances of additional sampling coming through are slim at best.
• A male skewing show going against Sunday Night Football is never a good thing.
The Verdict: I think it’s all about retention from The Simpsons. During the last years, Bob’s Burgers has been around the 70% retention mark. That show isn’t exactly a hit but I don’t buy that a live action comedy will be able to retain more than a cartoon either, so I give it a chance of the same 70% retention. That should put it squarely on the bubble for another round, if only because the entire future of FOX live action comedies is so blurry right now.
The Guess: 1.40 (-7%)
Potential for Major Deviation: Average
Mulaney (New Show)
Lead-in: Family Guy
Lead-out: Local Programming
Episode Order: 22-24 episodes
Competition: 13 (potentially 22-24) episodes
The Pros
• Family Guy is probably the highest rated lead-in on FOX right now
• Like with B99, comedy competition should not be an issue
The Cons
• As with B99, the compatibility between the live action comedies and the cartoons remains to be proven and could very easily go wrong.
• Critics haven’t easily been much appreciative of this pilot.
• This show might not have much comedy competition, but there is still plenty of competition, particularly from Sunday Night Football and from a little show called The Walking Dead which should be able to retain a huge portion of that male audience that this show seeks to capture.
The Verdict: I am not sold on this one at all as a long term thing, but I do think Family Guy will do it enough good to avoid a pull-me now type of situation. I imagine it will be a Dads type of player that will be clear from early on that will not make it but will never do bad enough to embarrass FOX either.
The Guess: 1.30
Potential for Major Deviation: Low
Madam Secretary (New Show)
Lead-in: 60 Minutes
Lead-out: The Good Wife
Episode Order: 13 (potentially 22-24) episodes
Competition: Sunday Night Football/?, Madam Secretary, The Simpsons & Brooklyn Nine-Nine
The Pros
• The show has a top notch cast and is well received by the critics. It is widely regarded as the successor of The Good Wife, easily the most critically acclaimed show on broadcast television.
• For all the talk that The Good Wife gets of being a flop, its first season was actually solid. Maybe Madam Secretary can capture the same amount of initial interest.
• Slotted between football inflated 60-Minutes and The Good Wife is not such a bad proposition for an old skewing show that tries to appeal to the same audience that watches… well… The Good Wife and 60 Minutes.
The Cons
• The Good Wife may have been high rated back in the day but today it certainly isn’t. Madam Secretary could simply post current TGW-esque ratings.
• I am not really sure how easily can you really “make” another TGW happen. It will be very easy for this show to disappoint and be perceived as a cheap imitation of TGW.
• 60 Minutes may be high rated when there is football to inflate it, but in other days? And that will be the lead-in that Madam Secretary will be getting.
• Can a new show really survive all the delays caused by the sports’ preemptions that so famously often affect CBS’s Sunday lineup?
The Verdict: I am not buying this one. Truth to be told, if there was ever a slot in which it could potentially work, this would be it. I cannot think of any other place in which it would have a shot and CBS certainly went to great deals to put it here (such as moving TAR to Fridays) which shows at least that they are confident about their product. But I am not seeing an audience for this kind of show. I am especially not seeing an audience for this kind of show sticking around when all the delays start making it less obvious to watch it live. I say it is a tossup between airing the whole 13 episodes or being pulled before November sweeps.
The guess: 1.38
Potential for Major Deviation: High (I think it’s quite possible that I am being very optimistic here and that we are looking at a sub 1.0 level)
The Good Wife (1.42 Last Year)
Lead-in: Madam Secretary
Lead-out: CSI
Episode Order: 22 episodes
Competition: Sunday Night Football, Resurrection/American Crime, Family Guy & Mulaney, The Walking Dead/ Mad Men, Homeland/?, Boardwalk Empire/?/The Good Wife, Downtown Abbey
The Pros:
• If Madam Secretary flops badly, The Good Wife may get to air at 8pm right after 60 Minutes, which could very easily prove to be a better situation for this show than airing at 9 (often 10 with all the delays).
The Cons:
• The Good Wife was pulling low 1s in the Spring and that was with a TAR lead-in. Without TAR, it may get even worse!
• The show ended the season on a downright scary note. If things continue on the fall, sub 1.0 levels are ahead of it!
• As always on Sundays, competition will certainly not get any easier. On broadcast particularly, Resurrection should still prove to be a more complicated opponent than Revenge was a year ago.
The Verdict: One thing to keep in mind is that last year the show fell 14% and that was amidst a year in which it shook its plot back and forth to the core multiple times. In a way, I think those 14% are actually inflated and would be worse in another year. I don’t think it will be able to sustain that fire it had creatively this year so I think is ratings fall a bit more, especially with a worse lead-in.
The Guess: 1.18 (-17%)
Potential for Major Deviation: Average
CSI (1.89 Last Year)
Lead-in: The Good Wife
Lead-out: Local Programming
Episode Order: 22-24 episodes
Competition: Sunday Night Football, CSI, The Talking Dead/?, The Affair/?, The Newsroom/?
The Pros:
• I’ve got nothing
The Cons:
• The show was already trending down bad (it went -16% and -17% in its last seasons) on Wednesdays and it will now have to withstand a move on top of that. Not ideal.
• Going from the ultra compatible and high rated Criminal Minds to the low rated and likely not nearly as compatible The Good Wife? That will be tough!
• Like fellow predecessors CSI Miami and The Mentalist, CSI will have to delay with delayed times quite often, which will sometimes even cause it to air almost exclusively out of primetime.
The Verdict: Probably the best thing that can happen to CSI is having Madam Secretary flop so hard that it gets to air at 9pm and lead into The Mentalist at 10. I am not sure how to really include that scenario into these predictions though so I guess I will just try to be a bit more optimistic than I would otherwise with the final number. CSI will obviously have a very tough season ahead in year to year comparisons and depending on what happens with the rest of CBS Sunday (one might argue that Madam Secretary, The Good Wife and CSI are all at risk of not returning), I would not be outright shocked if it’s over. But it likely still squeezes a final season order in this slot.
The Guess: The Mentalist and CSI Miami fell practically by the same percentage in their Sunday moves, so it’s not hard to venture into a guess here, even if I upgrade it a few notches due that 9pm possibility. A 1.33 (-30%)
Potential for Major Deviation: Average
Last Man Standing (1.33 Last Year)
Lead-in: Local Programming
Lead-out: Cristella
Episode Order: 22-24 episodes
Competition: Masterchef Jr/?, The Amazing Race/?, Dateline, Whose Line is It Anyway/?
The Pros
• Last Man Standing managed to have a drop only on par with the overall broadcast decline last year and that was despite being compared with some very early episodes from the previous season when Malibu Country was premiering. That’s a great trend!
• Cristela, as a multicam, has the potential to be a far better companionship show for LMS than The Neighbors was last season!
• Still no other comedy competition in the hour!
The Cons
• Cristela could turn out to be an even bigger dud than The Neighbors was!
• The Amazing Race could significantly turn the slot into a more competitive one.
The Verdict: I have a good feeling here. Last Man Standing did a very good job last year in what was a tough situation with a low rated and incompatible comedy as companionship last year. The -11% don’t even value it enough because the initial episodes from two years ago were very inflated and also because two years ago the show didn’t have to air in the last months of the season, aka the lowest rated portion of the year. I say it takes an even smaller drop this year.
The Guess: 1.26 (-5%)
Potential for Major Deviation: Low
Cristela (New Show)
Lead-in: Last Man Standing
Lead-out: Shark Tank
Episode Order: 13 (potentially 22-24) episodes
Competition: Masterchef Jr/?, The Amazing Race/?, Dateline, Whose Line is It Anyway/?
The Pros
• Last Man Standing is a good for Friday comedy lead-in and could be highly compatible with Cristela.
• No comedy competition in the hour!
The Cons
• Malibu Country was probably the most compatible a show could ever be with LMS and that one was cancelled after a season. Why would Cristela be any different?
• LMS may be a good enough for Friday lead-in but that’s not really saying much, is there?
The Verdict: I feel a bit “meh” here. I don’t think this show will be able to build or even equal LMS, so it should all come down to retention. I say it has a better one than The Neighbors but not a better one than Malibu Country. Probably gets cancelled.
The Guess: 1.01
Potential for Major Deviation: Low
Grimm (1.40 Last Year)
Lead-in: Dateline
Lead-out: Constantine
Episode Order: 22-24 episodes
Competition:Hawaii Five-0, Shark Tank, Fox Repeats/?, America's Next Top Model/?
The Pros
• Grimm had a -14% season last year but that’s actually much more positive than it looks since it’s being compared against a bunch of Monday and Tuesday episodes from two years ago! The apples to apples comparisons would result in a far more favorable -10.5%. That’s a good trend to head into a 4th season!
• Constantine may very well prove to be a much better companion show than Dracula or Hannibal were (it’s not like the bar is that all that high anyway!)
• Grimm got hurt last year when NBC randomly decided to throw it some low rated specials as 8pm lead-ins. Hopefully they’ve learned their lesson this year.
The Cons
• The overall trend may have been good but behind it there was still plenty of reason for concern, not only because its numbers were all over the place but also because some episodes were actually down almost 30% year to year.
• By the end of the third season, Grimm was turning more serialized than it ever was. As always, that entails the risk of losing viewers!
The Verdict: Grimm was a total roller coaster ratings wise last season. While I worry about some of the individual results, if we really try most of them can be explained by particular factors (big movie premieres, horrible specials as lead-ins, particularly low rated Fridays) and, like I’ve said, the overall -10.5% are a positive result for a third year show. I also think Constantine will be a better lead-out, regardless of what ends up happening to it. So I say Grimm does ok in its forth year.
The Guess: 1.23 (-12%)
Potential for Major Deviation: Average
Constantine (New Show)
Lead-in: Grimm
Lead-out: Local Programming
Episode Order: 22-24 episodes
Competition: Blue Bloods and 20/20
The Pros
• Constantine is probably the Friday show with the most hype since… well I am not even sure.
• Grimm is a very compatible and very competent for Friday lead-in.
• There really shouldn’t be much overlap between a heavily genre show like this and something like Blue Bloods or 20/20.
The Cons
• It feels like we were all making the same compatibility argument with Dracula a year ago and we all know how that turned out.
• Airing at Friday 10pm means dependence on lead-in is huge. If Grimm continues its roller coaster, there won’t be much Constantine can do.
• The show is going through some considerable post pilot changes. That’s not a very good sign of what’s to come creatively.
The Verdict: It’s tough to grasp what NBC’s expectations for this one are. I feel like it will be able to perform better than Dracula because that show seemed to be so poorly received last year that it would be tough to make it as wrong twice in a row but I am not sure if “better” will be enough to warrant a renewal. I think it gets a nice retention out of Grimm and hangs in there for a full season and is a bubble one at the upfronts. This being said, this is the type of situation in which a sudden explosion to big Friday hit wouldn’t surprise me.
The Guess: 1.11
Potential for Major Deviation: High
Hawaii Five-0 (1.42 Last Year)
Lead-in: The Amazing Race/?
Lead-out: Blue Bloods
Episode Order: 25 episodes
Competition: Grimm, Fox Repeats/?, Shark Tank and America's Next Top Model/?
The Pros
• Hawaii Five-0 handled with a Friday move with much more class than many (myself including) were expecting and its trend throughout the season was actually quite good too, so there really isn’t any reason for concern here.
• The Amazing Race is a higher rated and younger skewing lead-in than Undercover Boss was, so Hawaii Five-0 can take advantage of that and maybe even grow a bit.
• A full year of syndication exposure might start to kick in for H50 and to bring in some additional viewers!
The Cons
• We still do not know what CBS is planning to place at 8pm come winter and spring, so it may be that H50 ends up with a worse lead-in than Boss for the second half of the season.
The Verdict: Like I said, H50 handled last year’s tough move much better than I ever thought it could and I say that as a fan of the show. It’s also not like last year’s numbers were front-loaded, as H50 was pretty constant throughout the year, once you account for spring drops. So I don’t really see any reason why it would collapse now that it has a better and probably more compatible lead-in.
The Guess: 1.34 (-6%)
Potential for Major Deviation: Low
Blue Bloods (1.40 Last Year)
Lead-in: Hawaii Five-0
Lead-out: Local Programming
Episode Order: 22-25 episodes
Competition: Constantine and 20/20
The Pros
• Blue Bloods, in its 4th season, managed to be even year to year. That’s an incredible and very promising trend.
• If Hawaii Five-0 manages to have an even better season with the new TAR lead-in, Blue Bloods could benefit as well.
• The show is about to start airing in syndication and, as a procedural, is very well positioned to capture new viewers along the way!
The Cons
• Constantine may prove to be a harder opponent than Hannibal and Dracula were last year.
The Verdict: Going 0% in a forth season is a great accomplishment! Hawaii Five-0 really seemed to reignite the demo interest on this show and I see The Amazing Race’s presence on Fridays being able to continue that effect for one more season. That, aligned with this show’s old skewing and loyal audience, could even translate into a bit of growth this season.
The Guess: 1.35 (-4%)
Potential for Major Deviation: Low
Now it's time for you to make your predictions! Click HERE to submit your predictions!
What did you think of these predictions? Do you agree with my thoughts? Share your predictions and thoughts below on the comment sections!
Also, what are your viewing plans for Fridays and Sundays during this fall? My Fridays are pretty light, it will be Grimm and H50 for me only so far, and I will also be trying out Constantine. Sundays are a different beast though. The Walking Dead is my favorite show on the air so that's a big priority. Once upon a Time and Revenge are also some of my absolute favorites so they will also be there. I will also watch The Good Wife, Brooklyn Nine-Nine and Homeland. Resurrection is a tossup for me, I will probably catch up later during Christmas or something like that. What about you? What will you be watching?
Thank you for reading and participating in all these! I will keep bringing these up throughout the season as mid season shows are announced! Next one should be around November sweeps before State of Affairs and others premiere. I may do a post tomorrow summarizing it all!
