Update: 21st May For those asking me, although the predictions part is over, the table is still being updated based on the ratings that are still coming in.
Update: 12th May - Final Thoughts Well another season Renewals and Cancellations has come and gone. I hope that not too many of your favourites were cancelled.
Overall we're very happy with the accuracy of our Predictions again. Here are some highlights.
- Every show we had as "Looking Safe" was renewed.
- Out of 35 Shows we had as "Likely to be Cancelled", 31 were cancelled. 1 of those, Glee, has already been renewed before the season stared. The other big shock was BATB getting renewed. Not many TV sites had predicted that.
- We had 21 shows in the "In Danger" section. 8 of those were cancelled.
See you all soon for the 2014/15 Cancellation Predictor Table!
1) The Higher the Index Rating number the more likely a show is to get cancelled, lower numbers = safety.
2) This is an ongoing exercise that I hope to refine each week to make the index more accurate.
3) Only the major networks are included currently ie ABC/FOX/CW/CBS/NBC.
4) This chart is a prediction of all the shows using our own formula based on the viewing numbers, 18-49, and + 7 Numbers. These 3 factors are the main weighting of the Index number, however we also factor in things such as the Network they are on (eg CW shows get lower numbers), the day of week they air (eg Fridays are lower numbers), DVR Numbers and +7 and +3 numbers,DVD/Blu-Ray Sales,Production Costs, Cast Contracts/Availability, Syndication, online popularity such as streamed views and Torrents, Nielsen Online Ratings etc.
5) Shows still might not get renewed despite good numbers due eg a show coming to an end of run eg HIMYM is in it's finale season no matter what the ratings are etc or could be due to key cast wanting to leave after their contracts have expired. An example might be Supernatural if it’s two leads, Jared and Jensen wanted out, would Supernatural be renewed even if it had good numbers but no leads for the new season? etc
6) Remember Ratings are relative to ratings for other shows on the same network.
7) Shows that have been renewed for a New Season are marked in Blue
8) Shows with an Index over 2.70 are likely to be cancelled, 2.40-2.70 - in danger and less that 2.40 safe. Although shows nearer 2.40 are more in danger than a show with a lower index.
9) You can access this page via either the Start or Features Menu above or simply by Bookmarking it.
Here is a direct link to the full spreadsheet.
If you have any questions/suggestions, please don't hesitate in asking in the comments below.
