Data Last Updated: Up to and including 29th May 2013.
Update: 27th March With Today's CBS Renewals the tables have been updated.
Update: 12th Feb We've improved the accuracy of this table to only look at the previous 4 episodes so that shows with big premiere ratings and then large drops offs are more accurately reflected. This means that shows with recent low ratings will appear more accurately in the table.
Update: 20th Dec Now that DarkUFO has added the average Network Scores (see this post for details), we can now improve the accuracy of this chart even more.
- Shows that are below their networks 18-49 average get a lower weighting
- Shows that are above their networks 18-49 average get a height weighting
For example CBS shows on average have a higher average than FOX so a show on FOX with a 2.4 rating will get a slightly higher weighting than a show with a 2.4 on CBS. This should help make the table much more accurate.
Update: 7th Dec The Table below now uses the Average Total Viewers and Average 18-49 Ratings based on the Final Adjusted Ratings Numbers to improve accuracy.
Update: 18th Oct Just to inform everyone that I have tweaked the formulas now that we have more ratings data in order to make the ratings more accurate.
As a result I've tried to come up with my own formula/ratings to see how well a show is performing and after chatting with DarkUFO and he’s allowed me to make this a post on the site that I hope to keep updated fairly regularly, probably each Monday.
It will be interesting to see how closely this matches with the Official SpoilerTV Cancellation Chart and if it is more or less accurate.
I've tried to simplify the formula to come up with a “Score” for each broadcast show. The formula is basically calculated as follows
- The bulk of the “score” comes from the 18-49 Rating as this is where the bulk of the advertising money and hence profits for a show come from
- We also look at the total number of viewers and give shows with large numbers a better weighting
- Shows that are on Fridays get an increased weighting as these tend to have lower numbers
- Shows on the CW also get a weighting increase as it's a much smaller network than the big 4 (ABC/CBS/FOX/NBC)
- Shows which have 5 or more seasons get an increased weighting as they are likely to be in Syndication
Let’s look at some examples to show you what I mean.
Example 1
Show 1 on ABC has a 18-49 rating of 2.1 and has 10 Million viewers
Show 2 on ABC has a 18-49 rating of 2.1 and has 20 Million viewers
Show 2 will have a better “score” as it has more total viewers
Example 2
Show 1 on ABC has a 18-49 rating of 2.1 and has 10 Million viewers. It airs on Mondays
Show 2 on ABC has a 18-49 rating of 2.1 and has 10 Million viewers. It airs on Fridays
Show 2 will have a better “score” as it airs on Fridays
Example 3
Show 1 on ABC has a 18-49 rating of 0.9 and has 3 Million viewers.
Show 2 on CW has a 18-49 rating of 0.9 and has 3 Million viewers.
Show 2 will have a better “score” as it airs on The CW
Example 4
Show 1 on ABC has a 18-49 rating of 2.1 and has 10 Million viewers. This is a new show
Show 2 on ABC has a 18-49 rating of 2.1 and has 10 Million viewers. Show is in it’s 5th Season
Show 2 will have a better “score” as it been running longer
So here is the full table so far. Obviously shows with a low score are not doing very well and shows with a large score are doing very well and are more likely to be renewed.
