Update: 31st May With the recent Renewal of Hannibal this brings the Cancellation Table fully up to date for another season. We'll see you all again in September :)
Update: 11th May Wow, crazy day yesterday with the huge number of cancellations/renewals. The table has been updated and we're just waiting on the fate of Hannibal before we finish another season of the Cancellation predictor table.
Overall I'm very pleased with the results as you can see.
- The top 29 shows predicted to be cancelled, were cancelled.
- The top 28 shows predicted to be renewed, were renewed.
Biggest shocks of the season for me.
- Carrie Diaries getting renewed
- How to Live With Your Parents getting cancelled (it's ratings were better than a number of other ABC shows)
Hope you have enjoyed following along with us here and we'll have a new Cancellation Prediction Table up and running for the 2013/14 season in a few months.
Welcome to this years SpoilerTV Cancellation Predictor.Last year, each week, we updated our data (see the notes below about how we get our data) in order to see if we could predict which show(s) would be renewed or cancelled. As you can see from last years summary, we did pretty well, with the exception of Fringe, Whitney, and Terra Nova our table was pretty accurate. The top 14 shows predicated to be cancelled were indeed cancelled.
This index is by no means a 100% accurate guide about if your show is safe or in danger and should be seen as a bit of FUN.
NOTE: Until we have at least 3-4 weeks of data for each show that this table is not going to be very accurate and it will vary a lot each update. We'll try to update the full Cancellation Table every couple of days as we get new data in.
1) The Higher the Index Rating the more likely a show is to get cancelled, lower numbers = safety.
2) This is an ongoing exercise that I hope to refine each week to make the index more accurate.
3) Only the major networks are included currently ie ABC/FOX/CW/CBS/NBC.
4) This chart is a prediction of all the shows using our own formula based on the viewing numbers, 18-49, and + 7 Numbers. These 3 factors are the main weighting of the Index number, however we also factor in things such as the Network they are on (eg CW shows get lower numbers), the day of week they air (eg Fridays are lower numbers), DVR Numbers and +7 numbers,DVD/Blu-Ray Sales,Production Costs, Cast Contracts/Availability, Syndication, online popularity such as streamed views and Torrents etc.
5) Shows still might not get renewed despite good numbers due eg a show coming to an end of run eg Fringe is in it's finale season no matter what the ratings are etc or could be due to key cast wanting to leave after their contracts have expired. An example might be Supernatural if it’s two leads, Jared and Jensen wanted out, would Supernatural be renewed even if it had good numbers but no leads for the new season? etc
6) Shows that have been renewed for a New Season are marked in Blue
7) Shows with an Index over 2.75 are likely to be cancelled, 2.50-2.75 - in danger and less that 2.50 safe. Although shows nearer 2.50 are more in danger than a show with a lower index.
8) You can access this page via either the Start or Features Menu above or simply by Bookmarking it.
If you have any questions/suggestions, please don't hesitate in asking in the comments below.
